Why the Bond Market Is Ignoring Hot ADP Payroll Data

Private payrolls came in at 122,000 in May, beating expectations. But the bond market barely flinched. The 10-year yield actually ticked down on the news. Lucas and Luna break down why strong jobs data isn't moving yields — and what that says about the market's real concern. They dig into the disconnect between headline payrolls and the bond market's focus on inflation expectations, the Iran war premium fading, and the 10-year breakeven rate slipping to 2.39 percent. If the labor market is resilient and inflation is sticky, why aren't yields climbing? The answer may lie in what traders are pricing in for growth — and it's not what you'd expect. This episode drills into one specific number and what it reveals about the macro picture in early June 2026. #ADPPayrolls #BondMarket #10YearYield #MacroTuesdays #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Inflation #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #IranWar #BreakevenRate #MarketDisconnect #FixedIncome #RealGDP #CorePCE #JobGrowth #YieldCurve Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo