Why the IMF Is Wrong About Britain (And What To Do About It)

This week the press is unanimous: Britain is uniquely badly positioned, the IMF says so, and the 30-year gilt yield at 5.8% is proof. The Times, the Telegraph and the FT have all run the same story. Neil Woodford disagrees. In this episode, Jon Adair and Neil walk through why the 30-year gilt is the wrong number to look at, why the 10-year — which has been moving in lockstep with US treasuries since 2020 — is what actually matters for UK funding costs, and what the bond market is positioning for when the Iran war ends. What we cover: - Why the DMO has cut long-dated gilt issuance by 80% in a single year - The 10-year UK / US treasury correlation and what's actually changed - What today's UK Q1 GDP data tells us about IMF projections - Why fiscal constraints bind every prime minister, regardless of who's in office - Where rates go when the Iran war ends - Why the markets are still at all-time highs