Why the Yield Curve Inversion Is Persisting Despite Fed Cuts

The yield curve has been inverted for over two years — one of the longest stretches on record — and it's not behaving like past cycles. Lucas and Luna dig into why the 2-year yield is still above the 10-year even as the Fed has cut rates, what that says about the bond market's view of fiscal policy, and why this persistent inversion might be a bigger warning sign than the steepeners that usually precede a recession. They anchor the conversation in the latest data: the 10-2 spread at 38 basis points as of June 5, the 3-month yield at 3.78 percent, and the federal debt-to-GDP ratio hitting 122.6 percent. Along the way they discuss what the Treasury's borrowing patterns — heavily weighted toward short-dated bills — tell us about the government's own view of long-term risk, and why the traditional recession signal may have changed for good. #YieldCurve #FiscalPolicy #TreasuryBorrowing #NationalDebt #FederalReserve #RecessionSignal #BondMarket #InterestRates #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #DebtToGDP #InvertedCurve #LongTermRates #ShortTermDebt #FiscalDominance #TreasuryAuctions Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo