Why the Yield Curve Is Flashing a False Recession Signal

The inverted yield curve has been screaming recession for over two years, yet the U.S. economy keeps growing. Lucas and Luna dig into why the traditional yield-curve indicator may be broken in a world of quantitative tightening, large fiscal deficits, and a Fed funds rate stuck at 3.64 percent. Using live data from May 25, 2026 — including the 10-year Treasury at 4.56 percent and the 2-year at 4.26 percent — they unpack the role of term premiums, the carry trade, and why bond markets are sending mixed signals. Whether you're an investor trying to read the macro tea leaves or just wondering why every recession call has been wrong, this episode gives you a framework for understanding what the yield curve is actually saying — and what it's not. #YieldCurve #Inversion #Recession #BondMarket #FederalReserve #TermPremium #TreasuryYields #EconomicIndicators #MacroEconomics #Investing #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #MacroTuesdays #BondVigilantes #QuantitativeTightening #FiscalDeficit #CarryTrade Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo