Why the Yield Curve Is Flashing a Recession Signal

The yield curve has been inverted for over two years, but recently the 2-year Treasury yield jumped above 4.29 percent while the 10-year sits at 4.51 percent. Lucas and Luna dig into what this persistent inversion means for the economy, especially with the Fed holding rates at 3.63 percent and inflation still above target. They discuss how the curve has historically predicted recessions, why this time might be different, and what the bond market is pricing in for growth. The conversation touches on the Fed's new chairman Kevin Warsh and the challenge of balancing sticky core CPI against slowing real GDP growth of just 1.6 percent. With breakeven inflation at 2.25 percent, the hosts explore whether the bond market is signaling a soft landing or a downturn ahead. #YieldCurve #RecessionSignal #BondMarket #FedPolicy #KevinWarsh #TreasuryYields #Inversion #EconomicForecast #RealGDP #CoreCPI #BreakevenInflation #SoftLanding #HardLanding #FixedIncome #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #TheMacroMemo Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo