Why the Yield Curve Steepening Is Not a Recession Signal

On this episode of Macro Tuesdays, Lucas and Luna break down the recent steepening of the yield curve—the 10-year Treasury yield is now 4.54 percent while the 2-year sits at 4.28 percent, widening the spread to 26 basis points. They argue that this steepening, often a classic recession warning when the curve inverts, is actually a sign of something different in mid-2026. With the Fed holding rates steady at 3.63 percent and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate flat at 2.36 percent, the hosts explain why bond markets are pricing in a 'softish' landing rather than a crash. They also connect the steepening to the recent surge in job openings to 7.6 million and the drop in the Nasdaq by 5.1 percent over five days, showing how sectors are rotating away from tech and into value. No doom-mongering—just a clear look at what the bond market is really telling us about growth and inflation expectations. #YieldCurve #BondMarket #TreasuryYields #FederalReserve #SteepeningCurve #RecessionSignals #MacroEconomics #InterestRates #JobOpenings #Nasdaq #TechSelloff #SoftLanding #InflationExpectations #EconomicData #PolicyOutlook #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo