Why Treasury Buybacks Are Not Lowering Bond Yields

Secretary Bessent tripled long-end buybacks to push yields down, but the 10-year is holding near 4.95% and the 30-year hit 5.27% as inflation expectations repriced on tariffs and energy. Interest is growing among investors around why intervention is not working and what higher yields mean for borrowing and investing. This week on On The Markets we break down how buybacks work, why the market is pushing back, and what that may indicate about next week's Fed meeting. This week Sonoma Wealth Managing Principals Daren Blonski CFP®, Chris Sipes CFP® and Marketing Director Dano Weir: • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent declares “I am the house now” • S and P still near all-time highs? Then why is consumer sentiment at an all time low? • Nvidia just had “record earnings”? What about the half-trillion that didn't make it to the balance sheet? We look at the “off book” commitments of the hyperscalers. Full video available on our YouTube Channel: https://youtu.be/KF3zZBUi3ZI Book Your Wealth Analysis with Sonoma Wealth right here: https://sonomawealthadvisors.com/book-your-wealth-analysis CHAPTERS 0:00 Intro: This Week's Topics 1:37 Welcome & Remembering 9/11 (25th Anniversary) 6:46 Bessent: "I Am the House Now" (Treasury/Yen Clip) 11:43 Treasury Buybacks Explained ($2B to $6B) 14:42 AI CapEx, OpenAI's Comeback & AI Safety Fears 18:03 Global Trade Balances & Tariff Deficit Map 20:35 Sentiment Check: AAII, Fear & Greed, Bitcoin 21:36 Consumer Sentiment vs. Top 10% Spending Power 24:47 Hot PPI/CPI Data Fuels Rate Hike Bets 29:03 Hyperscalers' $3 Trillion AI Borrowing Binge 32:11 Market Flips From Pricing Cuts to Pricing Hikes 34:04 Housing Market Craters: Sales & Starts Collapse 36:17 Housing Affordability Crisis 38:03 Bond Market Duration Risk by Scenario 39:37 Why Isn't the Market Buying the Buybacks? 42:26 Vibes Segment: Nintendo's Tariff Refund Sale 43:36 Global Liquidity Tracker & the Saudi Pipeline Attack 46:03 S&P 500 Technical Analysis 47:51 VIX Volatility Check 49:05 Oil, Ceasefire Odds & the Houthi Pipeline Strike 51:48 Magnificent Seven & the AI Bubble Debate 53:56 Hidden AI Exposure in the S&P 500 Heat Map 56:02 Gold & Silver Technical Charts 59:36 30-Year Treasury & Housing Affordability Revisited 1:01:01 Bitcoin Chart Check 1:01:33 Apple's Foldable Phone & New Hardware-Focused CEO 1:05:17 SpaceX Breakout & Grok AI Agents 1:06:09 Dollar Index & Weekly Market Wrap 1:06:46 Nike, Peloton & Disney: A Warning for AI Valuations 1:10:16 Closing Thoughts & Sign-Off References: https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/edgy-bond-investors-unconsoled-by-bessents-big-buyback-2026-09-10/ https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/20/bessents-efforts-in-the-treasury-market-so-far-havent-worked-heres-what-else-he-can-try.html https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/20/treasury-bond-buybacks-long-term-yields.html https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/mortgages/article/why-treasurys-6-billion-bond-buyback-didnt-lower-mortgage-rates-174923069.html https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/ https://ycharts.com