Why Wholesale Inflation Is Hitting Consumers Harder Than CPI Shows

The May wholesale inflation print landed at 1.1 percent month-over-month, far above expectations, driven by a surge in energy costs tied to the Iran conflict. Lucas and Luna break down why the Producer Price Index matters more right now than the consumer-side CPI reading of 4.2 percent annual inflation. They trace how wholesale energy gains ripple through delivery surcharges, retail margins, and eventually paychecks — and why the Fed's focus on core PCE may miss the real-time pain small businesses are already feeling. With the ECB hiking rates for the first time since 2023 and the 10-year breakeven inflation rate climbing to 2.31 percent, the hosts explore whether markets are pricing in a persistent supply shock rather than a transient one. Specific data points include the PPI energy component jump, the 10-year yield settling at 4.49 percent, and the divergence between job openings at 7.6 million and initial claims creeping toward 230,000. A sharp, data-driven conversation for anyone trying to read the economy in June 2026. #WholesaleInflation #ProducerPriceIndex #CPI #CorePCE #EnergyCosts #IranConflict #ECB #RateHike #June2026 #InflationOutlook #SupplyShock #JoblessClaims #JOLTS #SmallBusiness #BreakevenRate #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #MacroTuesdays Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo