Why Women Vote for Trump

You ever notice how conservative women vote against the very rights that protect them?There’s a scientific reason for that.And you’re not going to like the answer.In 2018, political scientists Mark Setzler and Alixandra Yanus at High Point University analyzed data from the 2016 American National Election Study to answer one specific question: why do women vote for Trump?The conventional story was that Trump’s base was angry white men, working class, non-college educated, evangelical. That story was only half right.Over 40 percent of American women voted for Trump on Election Day 2016, despite his well-documented history of sexual misconduct and demeaning comments about women. LSE And in 2024, more than 6 in 10 white women without a college degree voted for Trump again. EMILY’s ListThe researchers wanted to know why.Was it party loyalty? Religion? Region? Class? Education?None of those explained it.Despite the prevailing narrative about Trump’s electoral base being dominated by older, working-class, non-college-educated men, none of these demographic indicators explained much about the motivations behind vote choice after accounting for voters’ underlying attitudes. LSEWhat actually explained it was two things.Reason One: Racial ResentmentThe researchers measured racial resentment using standard survey questions, statements like “if Black people would only try harder, they could be just as well off as whites.” Agreement with those statements was used to score respondents on a racial resentment scale.The results were stark.Women with the highest levels of racial resentment were more than four times as likely, 68 percent versus 16 percent, to support Trump than women with the lowest levels of racial resentment. LSEThat’s not a small effect. That’s a massive one. Being a Republican woman increased the probability of voting for Trump by 29 points. Racial resentment blew that out of the water.These women didn’t vote for Trump because of the economy. They voted because of who they believed didn’t deserve what they had.Reason Two: Hostile SexismThis is the part nobody wants to talk about.The researchers also measured something called hostile sexism, a specific set of beliefs about women. Not generic sexism. Hostile sexism. Beliefs like: women seek to gain power by controlling men. Women exaggerate problems they face. Women are too easily offended.And here’s what they found.Among women, those with the highest levels of sexism were 54 percentage points more likely, 76 percent versus 22 percent, to support Trump than women who expressed no sexist attitudes. LSERead that again. Women who believed other women were manipulative, exaggerating, and seeking power they didn’t deserve, those women voted for Trump at a rate of 76 percent. Women who held no such beliefs voted for Trump at 22 percent.That’s a 54 point gap. Driven entirely by how much one woman resented other women.Controlling for all other factors, possessing the levels of sexism and racism typical of a female Trump voter increased the probability of voting for him by 37 percentage points, compared to being a female Republican, which only increased the probability by 29 points. Pacific StandardPrejudice was a stronger predictor than party. Let that sink in.The Bigger PictureWithout a college degree, options narrow. Status becomes tied to your husband, your community, the social order staying exactly as it is.When other women start earning more, getting promoted, gaining power, it doesn’t feel inspiring. It feels threatening.The researchers confirmed it. These women weren’t voting for better healthcare. They weren’t voting for lower prices. There is no evidence to suggest Trump’s female supporters voted for him primarily because of partisanship rather than prejudice. LSEThey voted to keep the hierarchy in place. Even if that hierarchy was the thing holding them down.And in 2024, Trump’s margin of victory among non-college-educated white women was between 25 and 28 points, nearly identical to his support among these voters in 2020. EMILY’s ListNothing changed. Nothing is going to change on its own.Sources:Setzler, M. & Yanus, A.B. (2018). “Why Did Women Vote for Donald Trump?” PS: Political Science & Politics, Vol. 51, Issue 3, pp. 523–527. https://doi.org/10.1017/S1049096518000355Center for American Women and Politics, Rutgers University. “Gender Differences in 2024 Vote Choice Are Similar to Most Recent Presidential Elections.” https://cawp.rutgers.edu/blog/gender-differences-2024-presidential-voteEdison Research / National Election Pool, 2024 Presidential Exit Polls. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit lucasbean.substack.com/subscribe