Will higher interest rates cause property prices to fall?

Vocal market commentor and fund manager, Chris Joye wrote in the AFR in November last year that Australian house prices could fall by 15% to 25% after the RBA starts increasing interest rates (here’s a copy of that article).Of course, there are many property doomsayers that perpetually (and often inaccurately) predict property market crashes. However, Chris is not one of these people. In fact, Chris’ predictions are usually quite accurate. However, on this occasion, I disagree with his prediction, and I share the reasons why below.However, more importantly, I wanted to discuss what impact rising interest rates might have on the property market.It’s interesting that almost everyone disagrees with the RBAThe RBA has persistently reminded us that it will not raise the cash rate until inflation is sustainably within its 2% to 3% band. And for that to be the case, the wage inflation rate must be sustainably in the 3% to 4% range, according to the RBA. Price inflation can’t remain sustainably high unless it’s supported by rising wages. Last week, wage inflation printed at 2.3% p.a., so we are some way off the RBA’s target.Despite the RBA’s clear indication, the market stubbornly predicts that interest rates will rise quickly over the course of this year. In fact, this chart shows the money market is currently pricing in 7 to 8 rate hikes (of 0.25% each) over the next 16 months. This seems over ambitious.So, why would the market ignore the RBA’s commentary and price in more rate hikes? The RBA’s in full control of the cash rate, so shouldn’t we listen to it? It’s like your child telling all her friends that she thinks she’s coming to the party when she’s grounded. I suspect the answer is that markets are imperfect, especially in the short run.It is worth noting that Australia is in a much different position to the US. In the US, inflation is very high (at 7.5% p.a.) which is underpinned by historically high wage inflation (at 4.5% p.a. which is a 40-year high). One of the main problems is that the US participation rate hasn’t bounced back like it has in Australia and other countries, which results in a tighter labour market. The high Covid death rate per capita in the USA might be responsible for this.It is therefore very likely that the US (Fed Reserve) will hike rates by 1% or more during 2022, but the RBA is likely to do very little until wage inflation increases.Higher rates do impact asset valuesTheatrically, increasing the cash rate should result in lower asset values. There are a few fundamental reasons for this.Firstly, as it becomes more expensive to borrow money, people become more careful with how they invest these borrowings i.e. they are more careful to not overpay for a property. Also, demand for new borrowings falls. Less capital flowing into the market results in lower demand and all things remaining equal, it will lead to lower prices.Secondly, as interest rates rise, lower-risk investment options such as term deposits become more attractive, compared to higher risk options such as shares or property. Many investors prefer lower risk options but have been forced to invest elsewhere (in higher risk investments), whilst interest rates are close to zero.Therefore, theoretically, higher rates should lead to lower asset prices.Firstly, owner-occupiers don’t cMy new book is available for pre-order now: Pre-ordering the book will help me get it into bookstores. So please do me a favour - please consider pre-ordering now - links and pre-order bonus are available here: https://prosolution.com.au/book-preorder-bonus Do you have a question for the podcast? Email us at [email protected]. If you're interested in working with our team and me, discover how we can work together here: https://prosolution.com.au/family-office-servicesIf this episode resonated with you, please leave a rating on your favourite podcast platform. Subscribe to my weekly blog: https://prosolution.com.au/stay-connected IMPORTANT: This podcast provides general information about finance, taxes, and credit. This means that the content does not consider your specific objectives, financial situation, or needs. It is crucial for you to assess whether the information is suitable for your circumstances before taking any actions based on it. If you find yourself uncertain about the relevance or your specific needs, it is advisable to seek advice from a licensed and trustworthy professional.