Will Home Sales Rebound in 2026? A Look at a Bold Housing Forecast

Home sales have plunged since their pandemic peak—but a new forecast suggests a sharp rebound could be closer than many expect. As mortgage rates eased from recent highs and inventory pressures slowly shift, Tim Lucas and Craig Berry break down a bold prediction that home sales could jump significantly in 2026, what’s been holding the market back, and what might finally unlock buyer and seller activity again.In this episode you’ll learn:How far home sales have fallen: Annual U.S. home sales dropped from 6.12 million in 2021 to about 4 million by 2025.Who’s predicting a rebound: Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors, forecasts a 14% year-over-year increase in home sales in 2026.Why Yun isn’t calling this radical: Historically, housing markets often see double-digit rebounds after prolonged downturns.How interest rates froze the market: Mortgage rates rising from under 3% to nearly 8% sidelined buyers and discouraged sellers.The lock-in effect: Homeowners with ultra-low pandemic-era mortgages are reluctant to sell and take on higher rates.The capital gains tax factor: Exemptions set in 1997 may now be discouraging long-time owners from selling.Why this isn’t 2008: Distressed sales make up only about 2% of transactions today, signaling stronger fundamentals.Read the full article: https://www.mortgageresearch.com/articles/will-home-sales-rise-14-in-2026-nar-economist-weights-in/