Will the Fed Succeed - Jim Welsh #5588

Summary: Rates are going up for the foreseeable future. What does this mean for unemployment, the forthcoming recession, and our economic well being? Jim Welsh has conducted thorough research on rate increases and unemployment, and comes on the show to share his finds. Using data trends that span back to the 1950s, Jim projects what the near future will look like—with a recession guaranteed in 2023—and notes some of the looming indications of this global recession. Highlights: -Jim starts at the year 1950, looking at inflation rates and increase in unemployment rates -The fed funds rate went up 90% from where it started from -The stock market is not cut out for an unemployment rate above 5% -The risk of recession has been high, and now that the Fed is above neutral, we’ll see a recession in 2023 -Most of the people with savings are those in the upper 50% of earners—we’re seeing unbalanced consumers -There are some real stress areas in the economy, but those are the reasons why a recession starting this year wasn’t likely. Rather, we will see one next year -Europe’s energy prices are extremely indicative of a recession taking place next year Useful Links: Financial Survival Network Macro Tides