Winning the Next War: Overcoming the U.S. Air Force’s Capacity, Capability, and Readiness Crisis

The Air Force’s commitment to generating a highly lethal force that is technologically superior, numerically sufficient, and flown by the most well-trained airmen in the world is the bedrock of deterring aggression in times of peace and prevailing in war. However, today’s United States Air Force is the oldest, smallest, and least ready in its history. Facing the severely challenging global threat environment for the next decade and beyond, these shortfalls set the conditions for an existential national security crisis. Moreover, projected underfunding of the Air Force within the future years defense plan (FYDP) will exacerbate the service’s decline. The service’s FY 2025 budget request sought to divest 250 aircraft, while only procuring 91. The FY 2026 request seeks to divest 340 aircraft, while only acquiring 76. Anemic funding for operations and maintenance will only advance the downward trajectory of force readiness, taking already historic lows to levels once thought unfathomable. It is essential that the Trump administration and Congress reverse the service’s decline in a capacity, capability, and readiness. The solution demands increasing the Air Force budget, while also shifting internal service funds from Research, Development, Test, and Evaluation (RDT&E) into both procurement and operations and maintenance (O&M) accounts specifically aimed at re-establishing readiness to prevail in peer conflict. The Air Force’s innovative capabilities are only relevant if procured in operationally significant quantities and flown by an exceptionally well-trained force. If the declines in the U.S. Air Force are excused or ignored, the human and material losses we will suffer in the next major conflict risk being significant. Defeat is a very real possibility. That is a price the nation cannot afford.