Winter Forecast 2024: Rainfall, Past Trends, and La Niña's Influence | Skymet podcast EP-9

The ongoing buzz about La Niña started even before the Southwest Monsoon but has yet to materialize. El Niño and La Niña are Pacific Ocean phenomena where warming leads to El Niño and cooling leads to La Niña. Our expert meteorologists AVM GP Sharma and Mahesh Palawat discuss how La Niña and El Niño affect winter rainfall and temperature. Despite forecast agencies, including NOAA, predicting La Niña’s arrival by May 2024, ENSO-neutral conditions have persisted, suggesting any upcoming La Niña will likely be short and weak. La Niña usually emerges in April, peaks by November and fades by March, but this year’s delay until December (if it occurs) is unprecedented. Past data shows, that La Niña doesn’t necessarily correlate with harsher winters, though it can enhance winter rainfall. There are no major Western Disturbances to be seen at present which has kept temperatures high, with Delhi experiencing record warmth through October and mid-November. A weak Western Disturbance, which is arriving today, may bring rain and snow to Jammu and Kashmir (as witnessed previously at the higher reaches) but won't dramatically lower temperatures. November is expected to bring gradual cooling, with no sharp plunge forecasted for the next 10 days.