Skip to content
Year-End Financial Advice episode artwork

Dec 8, 2017 41 min

Year-End Financial Advice

from Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing Hosted by The Motley Fool

YouTube gets into the music business. Starbucks opens a venti-sized roastery in China. Disney and Fox get closer to a deal. And Walmart makes a change. Plus, Motley Fool CFP and retirement expert Robert Brokamp shares some year-end tips and talks tax reform. Thanks to Casper for supporting The Motley Fool.

Episode details come from the podcast's RSS feed.

Embed this episode

Ready to play

Year-End Financial Advice

0:00 41:43
of matches

Transcript Auto-generated, may contain errors

When it's time to scale your business, it's time for Shopify. Get everything you need to grow the way you want. Like, all the way. Stack more sales with the best converting checkout on the planet.

Track your chitings from every channel, right in one spot. And turn real-time reporting into big-time opportunities. Take your business to a whole new level. Switch to Shopify.

Start your free trial today. Support for Motleyful Money Comes from our friends at My ID Care Identity Protection. The Equifax breach gave identity thieves access to the personal data for millions of Americans. Now's the time to protect yourself.

25 million Americans rely on My ID Care. And right now, our dozens of listeners can get 15% off. Go to My ID Care.com slash Fool to enroll. Also, this week, we're brought to you by Casper, a sleep brand that continues to revolutionize its line of products to create an exceptionally comfortable sleep experience one night at a time.

Get $50 off any mattress purchase by visiting Casper.com slash Fool and using the promo code Fool at checkout. Everybody needs money. That's why they call it money. I'll best save your life, I'll free.

But you can get up to the beat. From Fool Global headquarters, this is Motley Fool Money. It's a Motley Fool Money Radio Show. I'm Chris Hill joining me this week from Supernova David Kretzmann from Motleyful Pro and Options, Jeff Fisher, and from Total Income.

Ryan Gross, gentlemen, welcome to Chatter. How you doing? How many live from Chatter, a restaurant in Northwest Washington, D.C. We've got the latest headlines from Wall Street.

Robert Brokeamp is going to help you rule your retirement. And as always, we'll give you an inside look at the stocks on our radar. But we begin in the music industry. YouTube is reportedly going to launch a paid music service early next year.

And Jeff Fisher, I hasten to point out, this is going to be their third attempt at trying this. And it should have a better name. What they're really doing is they're combining YouTube Red, which is their paid video service, with Google Play Music. Pretty awful name.

And they're going to rename it Remix, reportedly. Now, it's not set in Inkyat. They still have to sign Sony in Universal to get their music libraries. And then there's obviously no guarantee it will take off.

Google has struggled to grow subscribers in the past with its music offering. But Google or Alphabet has to offer a music offering, just like Apple had to offer its own maps, because it's all about its iOS, on phones and computers. And just as we're seen in China, we're Tencent. And all the giants in China have to offer everything to their members to keep them.

That's happening here with Apple and Google, of course, as well. And so what it really points to are the struggles that smaller players are going to continue to have. Although, David, it seems like some of the bigger players are struggling as well. I mean, 2018, I think there's going to be a really interesting industry to watch, because Spotify is probably going public in 2018.

Apple Music is reportedly not profitable, and they're not some startup. So the fact that Apple is struggling to make this a profitable part of their business is a little mystifying. Yeah, it's a tricky industry. Obviously, you have to deal with licensing, paying artists.

And Spotify is clearly the top dog here. They have around 60 million paying subscribers, Apple Music at 30 million. Amazon has their offering with Amazon Music. You have title.

There's so many different offerings here. So it's not immediately clear to me how YouTube or Google can really differentiate themselves to lure either subscribers from the existing services or people who aren't subscribed to a service. Yeah, and Google is just so here miss. I think more so than these other tech giants when it comes to developing new products, they have something like Google Photos, which is incredible user experience.

But then they just bump along with something like music. But I struggle to see where they can really differentiate themselves in this landscape. And I think that's the problem. There are too many of these offerings.

And therefore, profitability becomes difficult for any one. I think we're going to have to either see a shakeout or some go away or we'll have to see consolidation. Otherwise, you're spreading the client base, the subscription base across too many folks. And it becomes too hard to turn any meaningful profit.

But this doesn't seem like video streaming where right now there are plenty of people who have more than one video streaming service. I've got Hulu. I've got Netflix, et cetera. If you've got one, I mean, this really does seem like it might be one of those zero-sum industries where there's one winner.

And that's it? Well, that's the tough part. Netflix succeeds by having a limited library. So it doesn't have to pay that much, although it pays plenty for content.

But it creates its own original content. But the music streamers cannot do that. They have to have a universal library of all the musicians. And then maybe they can get an exclusive debut with a giant artist.

But afterwards, that music is available on any streaming platform. So it is a tough business. Spotify raised more than half a billion dollars last year at an $8.5 billion valuation. So it has quite a market value already.

They're adding Spotify as well. They've signed deals with ESPN and NBC. So again, everything's converging into one media platform. But right now, Spotify pays 55% royalties to the record labels.

So it's hard to make money when you're paying that much out in royalties. Sticking with entertainment, the Walt Disney Company is moving closer to acquiring major assets from 21st Century Fox. This would include Fox's movie studio and TV properties like FX and National Geographic and David Bob Iger, who already pushed back his retirement from 2018 to 2019, is reportedly going to be pushing it back another two to three years. That honestly might be the best part of this acquisition going through.

If it does indeed go through, it will be a steep price tag. There's estimates around $40 billion. So we'll see how Disney can come up with that money, whether it's equity or debt or a combination of those. But I think it really makes sense, especially by bringing more content under Disney's TDM movie studio, because 21st Century Fox, they have franchises like Abattara, some of the Marvel franchises like X-Men and Deadpool, Planet of the Apes.

So I think especially as Disney is moving toward offering its own direct-to-consumer streaming service, the more content, the more dominant franchises you can have under your umbrella, the more compelling that direct-to-consumer offering becomes to consumers. And Disney is looking to launch that in 2019. So I would hope I would stick around, because those are some pretty dramatic shifts in the business model of Disney compared to what the company has done up to this point. But I think it makes sense, content really matters.

And as Disney moves direct-to-consumer, you need strong content to lure customers under your umbrella. Do you think that the TV properties are more important to Disney than the movie studio? Because it seems like they really need to make that streaming work. Yeah, I think you could even see an Avatar TV show potentially.

I think it's more about the franchises and not necessarily just about the movie or TV studio. You're seeing a lot of content going either direction there. And then this deal would also probably include some international TV stations like Sky TV in Britain and Star India in India. I think that's how it works.

So there's a lot here. And it also would include 21st Century Fox's 30% stake in Hulu. In Disney right now, they own 30% of Hulu. So this would effectively give Disney full control over Hulu, which again is another internet streaming option.

For what it's worth, I think, Iger, if you plan to retire, should just retire. Do it before he... No, stay. It gets Fox and that's going to be a whole lot.

I don't know. I think if I'm the Murdoch family and all of a sudden I'm going to be a major shareholder of Disney, I want that continuity. No, of course you do. But I'm talking about him and his life.

He was ready to keep putting it off. You talked earlier about all the different services that one can subscribe to for content. Am I the only one that is fatiguing on all the $10 charges that hit my credit card on a monthly basis? It's getting to be...

I'm not fatigued by what hits your credit card. Thank you. I think something has to happen in terms of consolidation or price points because there's eventually going to be a pushback. Well, $10 is fine, but once you're at $40 or $50 plus all your other fees to hook yourself up to the wireless world, I think there's going to be a blowback.

On Monday, CVS announced what had been rumored and reported for weeks, and that is CVS buying ETNA insurance for $69 billion. And yet, Ron, when you look at both of those stocks this week, I'm getting the sneaking suspicion that nobody thinks this is actually going to happen. Yeah, it's interesting. ETNA's stock has not adjusted to where you would think it would be if the world thought this was going to happen.

I want to say it's probably around a 15% discount right now to the potential merger price. And it's interesting because this is seen as a vertical merger. And by that, I mean, these are different businesses. It's an insurer and a CVS, which is the retail and the pharmacy benefit management business.

There is not a lot of overlap in those businesses. So the Justice Department theoretically should not have a problem. It really shouldn't hit antitrust too harshly. And this deal should go through, add to that a $2.1 billion breakup fee, termination fee, where if this doesn't happen, somebody's paying $2 billion to somebody and you haven't sent it to get this done.

I think the unknown is that this creates such a powerhouse in this industry, even though it's vertical, that the world doesn't know what to make of it and doesn't exactly know how the consumer will be affected. And that's where the Justice Department could get a little bit nervous. I was going to say, there's no significant overlap for these businesses. And yet, Jeff, it really does seem like this is not going to get the green light from the Justice Department.

Well, that's how Wall Street is priced in it. And right now I wouldn't bet against Wall Street. This week, Starbucks opened a 30,000 square foot roastery in Shanghai. It is by far Starbucks largest location in the world.

Big event with CEO Kevin Johnson, Chairman Howard Schultz, and Belinda Wong, who's the CEO of Starbucks, China. Even though I saw the video, Jeff, I still had troubles wrapping my head around just how big this building is. It's almost like going to Disneyland. Disneyland of Coffee.

Starbucks has 600 stores in Shanghai alone, a city of 24 million people. And they now have 3,000 stores in China. They added 550 in the past year. They've already been in that country for 18 years.

It's its fastest growing region. It's what Starbucks needs to maintain the premium price it has on the market. It trades at 30 times earnings, while earnings per chair are growing around 13 percent annually. So the China story has to keep carrying Starbucks forward.

And the roastery is just kind of a feather in their cap for them to point to and generate excitement about all their other locations. They're opening new ones for listeners here in the States, in Chicago soon, and New York next year. And also in Milan and Tokyo. So what is the catalyst for this mature business?

Is it growth in China or here in the States? Is it somehow figuring out food in a way that they just haven't to this point? Because I'm a shareholder and I love the fact that every 15 hours a new Starbucks opens in China. But at some point, that can't be the only catalyst.

I think Chris, what we're seeing is they don't have the answer. And that's why they're doing so many different things and seeing what sticks, including on a very small scale, the Christmas Frappuccino that they announced this week, which looks like a big green Christmas tree. And it was really the opposite of how it should set out to do 40 years ago, which make good quality Italian coffee. Does it taste any good at all?

I don't know. Another unicorn Frappuccino. No, it's similar to that. But yeah, they don't have the answer.

It's China. It's getting food to work in the States. And until they have kitchens and locations, it doesn't look that promising. Even though they have grown the food ticket quite a bit in recent years.

Yeah, I just reiterate what Jeff said. I think you can hang your hat on the international growth, specifically the China growth, and build out your valuation model from there. However, that might not get you where you need to be because of its premium valuation. So there does have to be additional things as you both discussed.

But if the past is any indication, I think they'll figure that out. And being a shareholder at these levels, I think is perfectly fine. Yeah, I think they have different levers. They can pull food in the US, does contribute about 20% of the sales in their stores.

They also have Tivana and tea, ice beverages becoming more prominent. The opportunity in China really is huge, just a triple underline that. Right now in the US, there are over 13,000 Starbucks stores and management expects China to exceed the number of stores that we have in the US. So that's a huge opportunity to open 10,000 plus new stores in the coming years.

This week, business editors got an early Christmas present from one of the biggest companies in America. Details coming up. You're listening. Come out, Lee Full Money.

All right, before we go any further, I want to say thanks to Casper. I don't know the last time you bought a mattress, but if it's been a while, you should check out Casper. Their mattresses combine multiple supportive memory foams for a quality sleep surface with just the right sink and just the right bounce. And they make buying a mattress easy.

Order online. It's delivered right to your door in a compact box, free shipping and free returns in the US and Canada. And it comes with a risk-free 100-day trial. Considering we spend one third of our lives on a mattress, it's so important to actually sleep on the mattress before you commit to buying it.

And that's why Casper gives you 100 nights to try it out. Some of my coworkers here at the Motley Fool have bought these mattresses and absolutely love them. So start sleeping ahead of the curve with Casper. Get $50 toward any mattress purchase by visiting Casper.com slash fool and using the promo code fool at checkout terms and conditions apply.

That's $50 toward any mattress purchase. Just visit Casper.com slash fool and use the promo code fool at checkout. Welcome back to Motley Fool Money Pres Hill here with David Kressman, Jeff Fisher and Ron Gross. We're at Chatter in Washington, DC.

We're going to get a bite to eat after this. You see the burger over my shoulder here? Unbelievable. Well, now I'm even more hungry than I was before.

So thanks for that. Last week we talked holiday retail and not to jinx us, but we, you know, we, there was some optimism around the table. And this week we got more evidence that that optimism is warranted. Lulu Lemon Atletico shares hitting a 52 week high after some good third quarter results and Ollie's bargain outlet hitting an all-time high after their third quarter report.

It's a real company. David Kressman told me. How are you feeling? Well, I think there's certainly more evidence, especially after the strong Black Friday weekend that consumers are comfortable opening up their pocketbooks and spending some money.

And I think as investors, you want to be careful because a rising tide can lift all boats and even the not so great boats like Macy's, Coles and Bed Bath Beyond, all of which are up over 17% over the past month. But a company like Ollie's bargain outlet, arguably the sexiest company on the market today, they're the retailer of clothes out, surplus and salvage merchandise. They sell good stuff cheap and they're self-described semi-lovely, no frills warehouse stores. They're continuing to do stuff really well.

They're sales up 18%, same store sales up over 2%, operating income up 30%, they have over 8 million members in their Ollie's army loyalty program. No, wait a minute. What? 8 million members.

That's up to the Ollie's loyalty program? Ollie's army. Yeah, it's a place to be at drive over 65% of their total revenue. People who are part of this loyalty program, they have over 260 stores now.

They're primarily in the Mid-Atlantic. They start in Pennsylvania, but they've since gone into the Southeast and they continue to open new stores. I think they've opened over 30 new stores so far this year. What I'd like to see with Ollie's is they are generating free cash flow, but they're using that to pay down the debt that they had when they went public a couple years ago.

Compare that to some of these department stores or other retailers which have a lot of debt either to fuel store expansion or share buybacks in the case of Bed Bath Beyond, which is a really questionable capital allocation decision. I'd like to see retailers that are generating cash use that cash to pay down the debt because I'll give you so much more flexibility when in other recession. I'd like to see Ollie's mobilize that army and invade Canada. It could happen.

Strong words. Big news out of General Electric this week. GE is cutting 12,000 jobs in its power business. If you just look at that division, Ron, that is nearly 20% of the workforce in that division.

Clearly John Flannery flexing his muscles as the new CEO. He was not kidding when he told you that he would be cutting $20 billion worth of business. He's not wasting any time, including cutting the dividend by half, which saved them about $4 billion. As you said, 18% of GE's power business are going to be losing their jobs.

That's 4% of the overall workforce, which is 295,000 people. It's not Ollie's. It's a big company. They need to shrink it because for a very long time it is not only going to be managed operationally, but its capital allocation strategy has been a mess in terms of acquiring companies.

That dividend has been around at that level for too long and it should have been cut a while ago. Still 2.7% yield, by the way. It's nothing to sneeze at. I totally agree with Ron.

In 2015, GE spent nearly $10 billion to buy a coal-fuel turbine manufacturer horribly timed. Trying to bring coal back right now. No offense to any coal miners in the restaurant were let alone in the country, but trying to bring coal back to a robust nature right now is like saying we're not going to be able to do it. Or put lead back in gasoline or just doesn't make sense.

The science of science doesn't make sense economically. Of course, when fracking has brought energy prices so low. How GE missed that in 2015? Big question, Mark.

Is this just one more data point that says energy is a tricky place to be investing right now? I've always thought so. I've typically avoided it because it's a commodity and because it's a obviously, all kinds of players are in this space. And there are always new ways of energy being created.

Solar will be a leading source very soon. This week Walmart formally changed the name of the company by dropping the hyphen between Wall and Mart. And David, we were talking about this before we started gaming. I have never seen so many business editors express their excitement on Twitter and Facebook.

I was happy about this because just having to write it, I would always get it wrong. Yeah, no. Whenever I had to write it up in an article or something, I would always have to take a step back and think, okay, wait, do you put the hyphen in there? And I'm glad they're just finally clearing up this confusion.

It's long overdue. I will defend them just slightly. They took the word stores out of the corporate name too to really identify that they're an e-commerce business as well. So that makes sense.

And while they were doing that, they might as well get rid of the hyphen. What does that cost? Are there any other sort of little changes you'd like to see? I mean, we can make recommendations to other companies in terms of either their name or their local.

One company is Mizzoure Robotics. It's a spinal surgical system company. I think they should just change a pronunciation to Maser instead of Maser. I think Maser is just so much sexier than Flashier.

Do they get snooty about that on the conference call? It sort of seems like, because everyone else who hasn't heard them pronounce it, they pronounce it Maser. So this does get expensive. Think of all the Walmart stationery they need to change, all the trucks they need to repaint, et cetera.

Remember when Starbucks took away Starbucks coffee from its logo and just puts the siren up there? I think Starbucks should bring back Starbucks coffee. That's a change I want to say. I want to say bring it back.

Because they just can't get food right. What about you? Joe's A Bank drives me nuts. Like we're supposed to call it Joseph, but it's Joe's.

Thank you very much. Let's get rid of that. Earlier this week I sat down with the retirement expert Robert Brokant to get some end of the year tips for investors. That conversation is next.

This is Motleyful Money. I want to say thanks again to our friends at My ID Care. It's the holidays, which means more online transactions, which means more opportunities for cyber criminals to take their piece of the action. So you want to protect yourself.

And My ID Care covers all types of identity theft from medical ID theft to child identity theft. They got you covered. You got 24-7 credit monitoring, dark web monitoring, and 100% success rate restoring identity. So enjoy the holidays.

Have a little piece of mind instead of worrying about stuff like this. For our dozens of listeners, you get a 15% discount if you sign up today. Join the more than 25 million Americans who depend on My ID Care for Protection. Go to My ID Care dot com slash full.

Welcome back to Motleyful Money. I'm Chris Hill. Robert Brokant is a certified financial planner and the Motleyful's resident expert on retirement. And he joins me now in studio.

Thanks for being here. Always a pleasure Chris. It's the end of the year. I think that is that time when investors maybe should take a moment and just look at their portfolio in the rush of all the holiday stuff that goes on.

Just take a moment and think about, are there a couple of things I should be doing? And that's why I wanted to talk to you because I know there are things that I should be doing. So what are a couple of things investors should be doing before the calendar flips to 2018? Well, being the retirement guy, of course, I'm going to start off with that one, right?

So you only have until December 31st to max out your employer sponsored account. So you're 401k or 438 something like that. And you shouldn't wait until December 31st because all that is usually taken out of payroll and you need your department needs a few days ahead of it's up. So now is the time to let people know whether you want more to get out of your paycheck for this year.

Also, you don't want to be the person at the office that the HR department hates. It's like, oh, it's December 30th. Here comes Robert. I wonder what he wants.

Exactly. So the max for this year, if you're 49 or younger, is $18,000. It's $24,000 if you're 50 or older. Good news for next year is those limits go up $500.

So if you're one of those virtuous folks who always max out your 401k, you're ready to have that changed in a couple of weeks so that you can hit the ground running in 2018 and have that higher amount taken out in that first paycheck. Fantastic. Well, so but for the IRAs, you know, you have up until the tax filing deadline to contribute your IRA for 2017. The good news there is the tax filing deadline for the next year for this year is April 17th.

So you actually have a couple of days more to file taxes and to get money into the IRA. Nice. It's always good to have more to talk to you. It is.

What else should we be doing? So the other one I would say is to maximize your employer benefits. So according to the Department of Labor, the value of your benefits on average is about a third of your salary. In other words, if you're being paid $90,000 by your employer, you're probably spending another $30,000 on your benefits.

It's a big part of your total compensation package. So it makes sense to make the most of it. Also, at this time of year, this is often when people are doing open enrollment for various things. It's also time of year for money in place where you have to spend money that's in your flexible spending account.

So it's just a good time to look at your overall package to see what's there. See what you have. Maybe you've signed up for something you no longer need anymore. Maybe there's something available that you had forgotten about and you can range from all kinds of things from the health plan, additional insurance, things like prepaid legal or even employee benefits that you're not aware of.

So it's a good time of year to evaluate all of that. Nice. Now, as we are taping this across the river on Capitol Hill. A mere seven miles away, maybe.

Yeah. Congress is working on some type of tax. We don't know the details. It's a good chance a lot of them don't even know the details at this moment.

But at some point, let's just say for the sake of this conversation that some type of tax bill is coming down the pike. If you're an investor, what should you be looking for? Because it seems, I don't want to jinx things, but it does seem like a relatively safe bet that corporate tax rate is going to come down. How much I'm not sure, but it does seem like that's going to happen.

Right. I am usually very reluctant to do any financial planning based on what Congress and the President might do. But I think it's a pretty good bet that something is going to happen. One question I'm getting from people is when does all this take effect?

And one thing everyone should know is if and when this does get passed inside by the President, it'll take effect next year. So it doesn't affect this year's taxes. But that doesn't mean there aren't some things you should do this year to anticipate that. So let's talk about a few things.

There are a lot of details to be worked out, a lot of things that have to be reconciled between the House and the Senate versions. But here are a few things we do know. First of all, tax rates will be lower, at least initially next year for sure. The standard deduction will be higher.

So 12,000 for individuals, 24,000 for couples, almost half of what they are now. What that means is much fewer people are going to be itemizing next year. And also many deductions are going to go away. So you put all that in context.

What's the strategy? Basically, delay income if you can to next year and accelerate deductions to this year. If there's any deduction that you would normally take to next year, but you can move to this year, do it. If there's any way you can choose when to recognize income like a bonus or something like that, move it to next year.

So I'll give you an example. Let's say you normally contribute a certain amount to charity every year. You might want to move that, what you would normally do next year to this year. You can put on your credit card and it counts for this year, even if you don't pay it off next year.

Or if you don't have the cash, you can donate appreciated securities that you've held for more than a year. Because if you don't have the cash, you can donate the stock, you don't have to pay the capital gains tax. But that's one way to do it. And then another somewhat controversial aspect of the new proposed tax law is not being able to deduct state income taxes.

So people who have to pay those are considering, maybe I can pay next year's taxes this year and get the deduction. And it's possible, there's some debate about that. But if you're considering doing that, it might be worthwhile, but consult the tax, bro, on how to do it. Going back to the corporate tax rate, it really seems like it's going to come down to some degree.

And you're seeing companies increase the amount of stock buyback, I mean Home Depot most recently said they had a $2 billion share buyback. They up that to $15 billion. Is it possible that stocks are going to be even more attractive next year than they are this year? Because if companies are going to get their corporate tax rates cut and they look at that and they think the easiest way to put this money into action to reward shareholders is buybacks and increasing the dividends.

That just seems like a path a lot of companies are going to take. I would think so. My only hesitation is it's not news at this point. I think a lot of what has happened to the market this year, it's been an extraordinary year.

We haven't had a down month yet this year. And that's never happened before. And I think a lot of that is anticipation of these tax cuts. So now that it does, they do seem likely will the market continue to rise based on those?

I don't know. But it certainly would put something in the positive column for stocks. So you head up our real retirement service. You also work on the total income service with our colleague Ron Gross.

Let's focus on income for a second. You wrote something recently around investing for income. Are dividend paying stocks better than bonds? I looked through the article.

I got to say I was a little disappointed because I was hoping it was going to be a one word article that just said yes. And just make it super easy for me. But you had to go and throw nuance into it. I did have to throw no insight.

Okay. So first of all, we all know the problem with bonds, right? Right now the 10 year treasury is at 2.3%. Going back to when George Washington was president, there's been only one other time in history back in the 40s when rates have been a slont.

I mean, I mean, 1940s. So we're talking extraordinary low rates. Historically, bond investors could expect to earn 2 to 3% above cash for investing in bonds. These days, you're just not going to get that.

The most you can hope for is 1% above cash. Not exciting. Plus the risk of the value of your bonds will decline when rates go up because they have that inverse relationship. So a lot of people say, I don't want bonds.

Why should I invest in bonds yielding 2.5, 3%. I can create a portfolio of stocks that yield just the same and have some potential growth. So why wouldn't I do that? So as you pointed out, in my article, I take the pro and the kind of both.

So here's why you should replace bonds with stocks. So as I talked about, yield is just incredibly low. It's almost guaranteed that the Fed is going to raise rates here in another week or two and try to probably raise rates in 2018 as well. So rates are going to go up bonds.

That's a headwind for bonds. Not great. Also, bonds are called fixed income for a reason. If you buy a five-year bonds paying you get that 3% each and every year.

It doesn't grow. Dividends historically have grown along with inflation. In fact, over the long term, they've exceeded inflation. So you've got growing income plus there's that potential for the capital appreciation.

So that's why I think the diversified portfolio of dividend stocks can be a good alternative to bonds. On the other hand, so of course, there's the risk. So if you look at dividend-focused ETFs and funds back in 2008, the market dropped 37%. Those funds dropped 25% to 35%.

So they held up a little better because often dividend payers tend to be more value oriented, more established companies, but they still drop in value. You're not going to see that from a bond. A bad year for bonds is like down three to four percent. Bonds are contractually obligated to pay you interest.

And even if the company goes bankrupt, most bond investors get something back. Whereas if a company goes bankrupt, you don't get anything for the stock, generally speaking. So where does that put things? I think for any money you need in the next five years, you think about bonds as an alternative for some of that money.

Cash is also a good alternative as well, but a diversified low-cost bond fund is also good for that. Any money you need more than five years from now, I think you're going to be okay with the diversified portfolio of dividend stocks. Where are we with the age-old question of how much money do I need to retire? Well, related to that, it used to be, I like to think of it in terms as a multiple of your income.

So it used to be that you shouldn't retire until you've had saved about eight to ten times your income. So let's say you're in your 60s, you made your household income is $100,000, you shouldn't retire until you've saved about $800,000 to $1,000. Now research is leaning more towards 12 times that, so you'd need more closer, like 1.2 million. Why?

Parts are related to what I was just talking about. When you look at future expected returns for bonds, very, very low. What about stocks? The proposed tax cuts could do something for the stock market for sure.

When you look at valuations where we are with the stock market, it's still high. Evaluations are the best, although imperfect, predictor of what returns will be over the next, say, ten years. Not over the next year, no one knows what the next year will be. But generally speaking, when you start a point with high stock market valuation, you're going to see below average returns.

You put those together and you have to expect lower returns from your portfolio, which means you need to save more and have more saved before you retire. But I will say one thing. One key variable in terms of whether you can retire is whether you paid out your mortgage. It's the biggest expense for most households.

And if you can go into retirement without a mortgage, that's a lot of flexibility and you need a lot less income. So if you're looking for a safe place for your money, something more predictable than the stock market, but you don't want the low yields of cash and bonds, I think paying off your mortgage. That's a guaranteed return. If you have a 4% mortgage, that's a guaranteed 4% return.

And because of the new tax laws, the value of the mortgage interest deduction is going down. So it totally makes sense to put some of your safer money into paying off your mortgage before you retire. Last thing, and then I'll let you go. This time of year always makes me think of you because for years here at the Motley Fool, and as I recently found out, even before you started working at the Motley Fool, you have put together your own holiday music list.

You used to give out CDs. I started tapes. Started with tapes. In the mid 90s.

And then moved to CDs. And now you've got a Spotify list. Right. Is there a particular holiday album that you enjoy, one that you just keep going back to your after year?

There's so much good holiday music. I've been beyond what you hear. That is very tough. So my Spotify playlist, Playlist, It's Public.

Broho Ho Ho Go to It. It's got 10 hours of the best holiday music. New album out by C on this year. Outstanding.

One of my favorites, I have to admit, John Denver and the Muppets. Classic. Classic versions of some great songs. Wait, did you get a whole album?

They had a whole special. The whole TV special. Yep. You can hear more from Robert Brokamp every single week.

Just subscribe to Motley Fool Answers, which is the weekly podcast that Robert does with our colleague, Alice in Southwick. He also runs really retirement, works on total income, and it's possible he never sleeps more than three hours in it. Thanks for being here. Always a pleasure.

Coming up next, we're going back to Chatter and we'll give you an inside look at the stocks on our radar. This is Motley Fool It's going for you. You're not behind the glass where you're comfortable. How's the show going for you so far?

It's going great. I can see there's a bus going by. It's like the whole world is opening up. We need windows.

I demand windows in our studio. We'll be working on that. A couple of things before we get to the stocks on the radar. First, I want to say thanks to Mark Stern and Claude Jennings who helped set this up for us.

Second, we are hiring at the Motley Fool and we are hiring for, among other things, investment analysts. Go to careers.fool.com. That's careers.fool.com to check out those things. And because we have gotten questions from listeners about this, we have not yet posted the summer on the 18 internships on careers.fool.com.

But that is coming. So stay tuned. Check that out. Radio.fool.com is our email address.

That's Radio.fool.com. Last week we got the question about autonomous vehicles and will having autonomous trucks primarily on the road. Will they be more susceptible to crime? And I may have expressed that I'm a fan of this idea.

And by this idea I mean robbing autonomous vehicles. Nice. We got an email from listener Charlie Fox who said think eight to ten cameras per vehicle interior and exterior. So I like that as an idea to prevent crime.

Although I also think that I could just wear masks. Like me and my team could just, you know, don't you think? I would recognize you even with a mask. Yeah, but if it was a really good mask.

Maybe I was watching Keke on my cable news junkie and I was watching the other day and they said the reason bank robberies have stopped being a thing is because of cameras in banks. So the in-store camera in a bank reduced bank robberies significantly. And I thought of your mask comment and it seems that the masks just don't get it done. I think criminals are maybe just getting lazy when it comes to the banks.

Well Chris, I don't think you're a fan of beer. But in the news today was Anheuser-Busch ordered 40 Tesla semiconductor trucks. They're semicructs. The biggest order so far for those new Tesla trucks.

So, I mean, that's a start. So thirsty criminals are going to keep an eye out for that is what you're saying. And I'm surprised the orders are already coming in. That's a significant order for a truck that won't be around for a few years.

Yeah. If ever. Alright, let's get to the stocks on our radar this week. And Steve will hit you with a question if he's not too distracted by the traffic going by the restaurant.

David Kretzmann, you're up first. What are you looking at this week? I'm going to go with Papa John's ticker PZZA. This is a company Jeff knows better than me.

But they've blamed all their problems on NFL essentially over the past couple months. But they've since basically knowledge. No, there's some things that we can do to get our act together. And look at the stock, the PE multiple, the earnings multiple is at about 19, which is the lowest level it's been at since 2012.

The company's still growing revenue and earnings. They certainly have had their share of issues and they're not growing near as quickly as Domino's, which has been the crown jewel in this space for a long time. But I think the problems they have are fixable. They have over 5000 locations worldwide that's still a bit fewer than Pizza Hut and Domino's.

I think there's still a lot of expansion opportunities there. So, when I'm taking a look at Steve, question about Papa John's. Isn't this all just a location play? Just who's closest?

Right. Who's the closest person who will deliver it? Yeah, I think that's probably something to do that. Guys, it's not like it walks away.

Wait a second, before we go to Jeff's taste? Doesn't matter at all? It's a price taste. But if you're ordering pizza, the goal is to get it there quickly.

So, if there's one out in my area or one that's too far away, you go with convenience. Jeff is sure what he's looking at this week. So, I've mentioned it before and I've owned the shares a long time. Skyworks Solutions, SWKS is a ticker that makes analog semiconductors.

Mainly, that drive connectivity and smartphones, but increasingly in Internet of Things devices, everything from your Alexa to your Google home. They have rising margins. They have growing end markets, of course. And they're only trades at about 13 times earnings for next year.

Well, earnings are growing that much quicker. It's come down about 20% recently. Steve, question about Skyworks? Does having a cool name like Skyworks have a giant effect on the business or does it just mean it doesn't matter?

It influenced me in researching it and then recommended it to thousands of people. So, yeah, it drove a lot of market value. Ron Gross, what are you looking at? I'm going with Oaktree Capital.

OAK is the ticker symbol, Steve. They're an alternative asset manager focused on distressed debt and contrarian investing founded, co-founded by Howard Marks, famed investor Howard Marks. Really enviable track record over the long term. But nowadays, contrarian investing just isn't getting it done because the stock market is just getting it.

The stock market is just going higher and higher. So, they've had a little bit of weakness lately, but that won't last forever. Their time will come and they pay out a 7.4% dividend yield while you wait. Steve, what dividend yield makes you nervous?

7.4% makes you a little nervous. Anything over 6%. I would just take a look at it and make sure I understand why. Three stocks, Steve.

You got one you want to add to your watch list? I think Skyworks, just because I'm amazed by the name. Skyworks. Alright, Jeff Fisher, Ron Gross, David Kretzmann.

Thanks for being here. Thank you. That's going to do it for this week's edition of Motlick One here. Engineer Steve Bruto, our producer is Mac Greer.

I'm Chris Hill. Thanks for listening. Thanks for listening.

The Investor's Podcast (We Study Billionaires) - The Investor’s Podcast Network The Investor's Podcast Network Hosted by Stig Brodersen, William Green, Shawn O'Malley, Daniel Mahncke, and Kyle Grieve, The Investor’s Podcast has proudly reached nearly 200 million downloads, as the world's largest stock-investing focused podcast. On the show, we study a range of businesses and their investment prospects, from Spotify to Amazon, serial acquirers like Constellation Software, deep value plays, and more, using lessons from some of the world's most famous investors, like Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and Howard Marks. Leverage the lessons we learned from studying, and talking to, the wo Capital Ideas podcast Capital Group Want to learn how professional investors do it? The Capital Ideas podcast brings you the latest investment thinking from Capital Group, one of the world's largest investment management organizations. Each week we'll get inside the minds of portfolio managers, analysts and economists to break down market trends, macroeconomic forces, investing approaches and lessons learned from personal experience. Take 30 minutes and tap into the intellectual capital of Capital Group. Capital Client Group, Inc.All Capital Group trademarks mentioned are owned by The Capital Group Companies, Inc., an affiliated company or fund. All other company and product names mentioned are the property of their respective companies.For full disclosures go to capitalgroup.com/global-disclosures.

Frequently asked questions

How long is this episode of Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing?

This episode is 41 minutes long.

When was this Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing episode published?

This episode was published on December 8, 2017.

Is there a transcript available for this episode?

Yes, a full transcript is available for this episode. You can read the complete transcript on the episode page.

Can I download this Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing episode?

Yes. Use the download control on the episode player to save the publisher-provided media file.