You’re Waiting for the Bubble to Burst | Jan van Eck on Why It Already Has

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Jan van Eck, CEO of VanEck, to discuss how long-term macro forces are shaping markets and investment opportunities. Jan shares how his firm thinks about government spending, monetary policy, and technology, why he believes investors have more visibility than they realize heading into 2026, and how trends like artificial intelligence, gold, and global asset allocation could redefine portfolios over the next decade and beyond.Topics covered in this episode includeHow VanEck uses fiscal policy, monetary policy, and technology as core macro pillarsWhy declining fiscal deficits may reduce long-term stress on marketsThe case for a less interventionist Federal Reserve and what it means for investorsWhy thinking in decades, not quarters, can lead to higher conviction investingArtificial intelligence as a transformative economic force and its impact on semiconductors, energy, and productivityThe AI capex buildout, compute shortages, and lessons from past infrastructure boomsGold’s resurgence as a global store of value in a multipolar worldThe difference between owning physical gold and gold mining stocksRisks and opportunities in private credit and business development companiesWhy illiquid assets may not belong in daily liquidity vehicles like ETFsIndia’s long-term growth potential and implications for global portfoliosHow family ownership influences VanEck’s long-term investment approachBehavioral mistakes investors make and why long-term charts matterLessons Jan would teach the average investor based on decades of market experienceTimestamps00:00 Introduction and VanEck’s macro framework02:25 Translating macro views into product development04:34 2026 outlook and why visibility may mean risk on06:00 Fiscal deficits, interest rates, and market stress07:00 The future of Federal Reserve intervention10:48 Long-term investing versus short-term predictions14:00 India, global growth, and asset allocation19:00 Artificial intelligence, compute demand, and semiconductors24:00 AI, jobs, and economic impact29:00 AI capex, market concentration, and historical analogies38:31 Private credit risks and liquidity considerations40:35 Illiquid assets and ETFs42:56 Gold, global currencies, and long-term trends47:26 Gold miners versus physical gold52:14 Contrarian opportunities and underloved markets52:47 Advantages of a family-owned investment firm56:06 Tokenization, blockchain, and market structure59:45 Investor psychology and long-term charts01:02:05 Lessons for the average investor