EPISODE · Jun 8, 2026 · 23 MIN
注册会计师 综合二 总体战略15 DCF估值模型的四个核心参数
from 26飞凡CPA：综合二｜商业决策、价值评估与合规实
【本期主题】 拆解DCF模型参数估计的完整预测逻辑——销售收入增长率（宏观/行业/战略三维修正）、预测期间（5-10年不稳定期边界）、详细预测期现金流（四层滤水器榨取）、后续期增长率（2-6%宏观天花板），深度解析"输入严密逻辑得真实价值，输入盲目臆想得戳破泡沫"的参数DNA。【核心案例】 为何历史增长率不能直接拉平均硬套未来？A公司12%收入增长为何实体现金流仅114万？营运资本增加96万如何从210万净利润中强制扣除？资本支出如何"把折旧吃掉的部分补回来"？2-6%永续增长率如何防止"企业规模吞噬地球"的科幻场景？黑天鹅事件下DCF模型是否彻底失效？
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注册会计师 综合二 总体战略15 DCF估值模型的四个核心参数
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