「賺越多、漲越多?」獲利與報酬之間的真實關係 (Fama and French,2006) episode artwork

EPISODE · Jul 24, 2025 · 10 MIN

「賺越多、漲越多?」獲利與報酬之間的真實關係 (Fama and French,2006)

from 論文投資學 Quantified Dialogues · host J&A

這裡是論文投資學 Quantified Dialogues,每周用AI探討有意思的投資學術論文 和我們一起踏入投資的專業世界 論文大綱: 這篇分析探討了尤金·法瑪和肯尼斯·弗倫奇的研究,該研究旨在解釋公司獲利能力和投資對股票報酬的影響。他們開發了實證模型,並發現以滯後獲利能力、資產增長和應計項目作為預期指標,能有效預測股票報酬。 內文討論:   A. 為什麼用「過去的獲利能力」來預測股票報酬會比用複雜模型還準? B. 資產成長率跟未來報酬呈負相關,是不是代表成長股報酬會比較差? C. accruals 是什麼?為什麼它跟股票報酬有負相關? D. 論文中的「公司強度」指的是什麼?真的能用來預測報酬嗎? E. 這些指標對小型股和大型股的預測效果一樣嗎? F. 加入這些變數後模型的解釋力變強了多少? G. 為什麼「回歸預測值」反而比「簡單落後變數」預測能力還差? H. 這些變數的預測效果是否只在某些時期特別有效? I. 如果我想自己用這個模型投資,要怎麼抓出 lagged profitability 和 asset growth? J. 實際應用時,這種方法能打敗市場嗎?還是只是研究上的結果? 資料來源: Fama, Eugene F., and Kenneth R. French. "Profitability, investment and average returns." Journal of financial economics 82.3 (2006): 491-518. Powered by Firstory Hosting

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「賺越多、漲越多?」獲利與報酬之間的真實關係 (Fama and French,2006)

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