Zombie companies, ARR, and broken SaaS economics | Brett Queener

In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with Brett Queener, Managing Director at Bonfire Ventures, to trace the origins of ARR and examine how new revenue models are reshaping B2B software. Drawing on Brett’s time at Salesforce and SmartRecruiters, they explore the shift from annual contracts to outcome-based pricing, what it means for forecasting and gtm strategy, and where the next major inflection points in SaaS are likely to emerge.—SPONSORS:RightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform built for modern pricing models like usage-based pricing, bundles, and mid-cycle upgrades. RightRev lets companies scale monetization without slowing down close or compliance. For RevRec that keeps growth moving, visit https://www.rightrev.comRillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to close faster without fighting legacy systems. Designed to support complex revenue recognition, multi-entity operations, and real-time reporting, Rillet helps teams achieve a true zero-day close—with some customers closing in hours, not days. If you’re scaling on an ERP that wasn’t built in the 90s, book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cjTabs is an AI-native revenue platform that unifies billing, collections, and revenue recognition for companies running usage-based or complex contracts. By bringing together ERP, CRM, and real product usage data into a single system of record, Tabs eliminates manual reconciliations and speeds up close and cash collection. Companies like Cortex, Statsig, and Cursor trust Tabs to scale revenue efficiently. Learn more at https://www.tabs.com/runAbacum is a modern FP&A platform built by former CFOs to replace slow, consultant-heavy planning tools. With self-service integrations and AI-powered workflows for forecasting, variance analysis, and scenario modeling, Abacum helps finance teams scale without becoming software admins. Trusted by teams at Strava, Replit, and JG Wentworth—learn more at https://www.abacum.aiBrex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metricsMetronome is real-time billing built for modern software companies. Metronome turns raw usage events into accurate invoices, gives customers bills they actually understand, and keeps finance, product, and engineering perfectly in sync. That’s why category-defining companies like OpenAI and Anthropic trust Metronome to power usage-based pricing and enterprise contracts at scale. Focus on your product — not your billing. Learn more and get started at https://www.metronome.com—LINKS: Brett on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/brettqueener/Brett’s Substack: https://queener.substack.com/CJ on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.comThe Staffing Ratios Salesforce Used, with Brett Queener of Bonfire VChttps://youtu.be/lJVgstAXjJs—TIMESTAMPS:00:02:54 Welcome Brett & episode setup00:03:51 On-prem software to SaaS00:05:54 Salesforce & recurring revenue00:07:15 On-prem costs & partner bloat00:09:58 Contracts, control & comp shifts00:14:15 Lock-in, renewals & SaaS drift00:16:20 Sponsors — RightRev | Rillet | Tabs00:19:48 From buying to hiring software00:21:59 Agents change pricing & planning00:25:59 Forecasting without ARR00:28:03 Talent models break00:29:45 Sponsors — Abacum | Brex | Metronome00:33:01 Rethinking sales & comp00:36:47 Selling by doing the job00:40:50 The future role of sales00:46:10 Zombie SaaS & category collapse00:51:07 Context as the moat00:56:07 Where AI hits next00:58:44 Vertical AI & hidden TAMs01:02:12 $1B startups vs mega rounds01:05:48 Dilution, fund math & pressure01:08:03 Choosing your founder path