49ers — Muffed

LEAN: UNDERPRICED — the NFL's second-most accurate passer and a QB6 per-game rate over an injury-shortened nine games, now with Mike Evans added, priced QB13. The injury discount is the opportunity.

WATCHLIST — an eleven-year 1,000-yard streak ended at 33 on an injury, now catching from Brock Purdy in San Francisco. A clean profile against age and a new system.

NO CALL — the aging fade is real, and he's still the best back in football after you subtract it. The catches are the bet.

Season MVP is Christian McCaffrey, and it's not particularly close — three hundred and eleven carries for twelve hundred and two yards and ten rushing touchdowns, plus one hundred and two catches for nine hundred and twenty-four yards and seven more scores. The engine on the ground and the security blanket through the air, all seventeen games. The thing that has to get fixed is the pass rush — twenty sacks all season, dead last in the NFL, third percentile. You can't win a Divisional Round game when you can't touch the quarterback, and the Niners found that out the hard way in Seattle.

Mike Evans was the number 40 wide receiver in PPR per game but the number 75 in total scoring — a per-snap contributor whose ceiling was capped by missing nine games. The on-field concern was the touchdown rate: just 3 scores on 62 targets despite a 35 percent air yards share, light production for a receiver getting that volume of downfield looks.

Purdy was the number 6 quarterback in points per game and the number 23 in total scoring — elite when active, unavailable too often to trust as a season-long anchor. The one efficiency wart: 10 interceptions on 284 attempts. The accuracy was elite, but the turnover rate dragged down what should have been an even bigger ceiling.

McCaffrey was the number 1 running back in both total and per-game PPR scoring in 2025 — a 17-game workhorse season carried by elite volume, dual-threat usage, and 17 total touchdowns. The one weakness in the data was ground efficiency: minus 166 rushing yards over expected ranked 46th among qualified backs, meaning the per-carry production lagged the bar his workload would suggest.

McCaffrey's 2025 was a league-winning, number 1 overall running back season built on historic volume and an elite 23 percent target share. The one wart: a career-low 3.9 yards per carry and a rushing expected points added of minus 21 — the ground efficiency lagged badly behind the receiving production.

Purdy ranked as the number 6 quarterback per game but only the number 23 in total points — an elite talent who got muffed by a turf toe injury that ate eight games. The 10 interceptions in just nine starts dragged down his floor and turned efficiency into weekly risk.

The 49ers' season MVP was Christian McCaffrey — 1,202 rushing yards, 924 receiving yards, 17 total touchdowns, and plus 39 in receiving expected points added that turned the short passing game into the most dangerous phase of this offense. The biggest thing San Francisco needs to fix is the pass rush and its downstream effect on the secondary: 20 sacks across 17 games and plus 67.6 in passing expected points added allowed is a unit that couldn't get home or get off the field, and the 14 total takeaways — less than one per game — meant the defense almost never created the short fields this offense needed.