PODCAST · science
An Accidental Anthropocene
by William R Travis
Diagnosing the confluence of natural extremes, social vulnerability, disasters and risks in a changing environment.
Episodes
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Welcome to the accidental anthropocene
These podcasts consider risks and surprises that await us in the Anthropocene era as human systems and natural systems interact in novel ways. I'm Bill Travis, I teach hazards and risk analysis at the University of Colorado--Boulder, studying how people make decisions under uncertainty. In my...
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#expandingbullseye: Growing exposure to hazards in the US
Losses from hazards like earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, tornadoes and wildfires are growing in the US even as we know more than ever about where and when such extreme events will occur. In our poster at the 2020 American Geophysical Union meeting, colleagues and I track the rate of development…
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What is the true probability of system failure?
We use the loss of the Space Shuttle Challenger and crew and explore the problem is assessing the risk of failure in complex systems, including decision making about those systems..
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Forecasting uncertainty
In this episode we'll use the science of hurricane track forecasting to explore the big challenges of predicting extreme events, and making decisions using those predictions. We'll grapple with the iron law for forecasting: that accuracy and lead-time are inversely related.
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