Breaking 50% Podcast

Episodes

1. 17

   Routine Peril

   The downside of routine. Breaks happen both ways. A way to get less ripped off by casinos. TCW: Saints +6.5 over Falcons LFCW: "They were three plays away from making the playoffs." RW: Value from futures bets is often elusive WW: Matt Taff

   Jan 4, 2017

   11m
2. 16

   Getting to Work

   The joy of victory. Some jobs don't feel like jobs. Ridiculous flaws in counting stats. TCW: 49ers +3.5 over Rams LFCW: "The Panthers are out of contention so there’s just no reason for Kuechly to play." RW: Return TDs count against team defense stats WW: No clue

   Dec 29, 2016

   9m
3. 15

   Insurance Isn't the Answer

   Joe Flacco makes a poor throw. Insurance is a poor solution. It would be a poor decision to pass up a head coaching job (so nobody(basically) does). TCW: Eagles +6.5 over Ravens LFCW: "Just get an insurance policy." RW: There are only 32 head coaching jobs in the NFL WW: TheGrossProphet

   Dec 21, 2016

   10m
4. 14

   The Innovator's Curse

   Can intelligence evaporate? Can Giants' fans be any more irrational? Can we create some new narratives? TCW: Jets +2.5 over 49ers LFCW: "It's better to go in as a wild card." RW: The favorites haven't changed WW: KathiKKS

   Dec 14, 2016

   10m
5. 13

   Elitism Gone Wrong

   Rules helping defenders. A reason people hate elites. Two years isn't really two years. TCW: Vikings +3.5 over Cowboys LFCW: "I don't think there is any way he's contemplating retirement." RW: NFL contracts are different WW: BretLC1964

   Dec 8, 2016

   9m
6. 12

   The Real X-Factor

   Rare incompetence. There are many ways to lose. Not being hot in December. TCW: Titans -3.5 over Bears LFCW: "You didn't lose because of the officials." RW: You don't need to play your best football in December to succeed in January WW: rwhitcraft PW: Z** W*****

   Dec 1, 2016

   8m
7. 11

   Stunning Arguments

   So many choices. A popular, yet meaningless, complaint. Ways to make money. TCW: Steelers -9.5 over Browns LFCW: Any comment against the new PAT rule RW: Thanksgiving dinner is a great time to make money WW: Too early to say

   Nov 22, 2016

   7m
8. 10

   Unfair Standard

   A glorious celebration. An unfair standard. A regression to his norm. TCW: Chiefs +2.5 over Panthers LFCW: "Matt Stafford shouldn't even be considered for the MVP because his team hasn't won enough games." RW: Last year was the Cam Newton outlier, not this year WW: willflemming

   Nov 16, 2016

   6m
9. 9

   Strategy Lessons

   Fatigue (maybe) matters. Multiple paths to success (or failure). A stupid strategy (stunningly employed by smart people). TCW: Dolphins -3.5 over Jets LFCW: "This shows that the Jared Goff pick was a colossal disaster." RW: Betting against teams that keep beating the spread is a stupid strategy…

   more
   Nov 9, 2016

   11m
10. 8

    Honest Memories

    The Browns strike again. Certain honest opinions about honesty are honestly terrible. And deceiving memories. TCW: Browns +3.5 over Jets LFCW: "Look, I'm not advocating lying, but there's nothing wrong with not revealing everything, you know?" RW: Kickers are making PATs at a higher rate this…

    more
    Nov 2, 2016

    7m
11. 7

    Peer Editing Outrage

    A terrible game fittingly ends with a terrible cover. An easy spot to upgrade "gut feelings." And lessons about misplaced rage not learned from Ray Rice and Greg Hardy. TCW: Seahawks +1.5 over Cardinals LFCW: "It’s just a gut feeling that I went with." RW: The NFL is not a court of law WW…

    more
    Oct 26, 2016

    9m
12. 6

    Diet and Exercise

    Eagles starting to regret missing on Cody Kessler. Unhelpful advice. And more is not always better. TCW: Browns +6.5 over Titans LFCW: "Cam Newton needs to become a smarter runner." RW: Forty-eight percent of NFL replays are coupled with a commercial WW: MMastro4 PW: SteveZissou23

    Oct 19, 2016

    8m
13. 5

    Pretending Athletes Aren't Athletes

    Failed second chances. Begging C.J. to not be who he is. And Brock isn't good because he isn't good. TCW: Colts -4.5 over Bears LFCW: "Terrible decision by Mosley" RW: Brock Osweiler was not a good quarterback last year WW: Mrbossbuddy PW: rwhitcraft & SteveZissou23 Tie

    Oct 12, 2016

    7m
14. 4

    Caring Less

    Chargers wreck dreams. The most unforgivable verbal foible. Short-term memory loss. TCW: Saints +4.5 over Chargers LFCW: "The NFL really could care less" RW: In Week 3, Julio Jones had one catch for 16 yards WW: SteveZissou23, rwhitcraft and Chiss2014 Tie

    Oct 5, 2016

    5m
15. 3

    Humans Are Not Robots

    The Lions play with an appropriate level of aggression. Eli Manning plays with his standard level mediocrity. Humans play with a normal amount of variability. TCW: Lions +7.5 over Packers LFCW: "Eli Manning has led 35 game winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime. Say what you will about...

    Sep 28, 2016

    8m
16. 2

    Offense is Easy

    Let's connect the dots about the ease of modern NFL offense when making comparisons to the past. TCW: Cowboys +2.5 over Redskins LFCW: "Technically it is, but I don't really like it." RW: It is much easier to play offense, specifically for quarterbacks, than ever before WW: rwhitcraft

    Sep 21, 2016

    9m
17. 1

    Big, Bold (and Mindless)Declarations

    Sometimes it's simply better to say nothing at all. TCW: Vikings -2.5 over Titans LFCW: Terrelle Pryor will have more than 1,800 yards receiving RW: The NFL is not college football

    Sep 14, 2016

    5m