Broncos — Muffed

WATCHLIST — a top-20 rookie finish on 12 touchdowns that won't repeat, behind J.K. Dobbins, priced RB30. The 47-catch receiving role is the real floor underneath it.

LEAN: UNDERPRICED — finished WR13 in total points on 124 targets with a clean touchdown rate, priced WR37 entirely on the Jaylen Waddle trade. The market over-corrected for the haircut.

WATCHLIST — 100 targets that didn't convert, traded to Denver, with Bo Nix's ankle to monitor.

Dobbins was the number 27 running back in per-game scoring on plus 1.08 rushing yards over expected per carry — a genuinely efficient lead back whose total-PPR finish of number 43 was capped entirely by availability. The weakness the data flagged: a 5 percent target share and just 37 receiving yards all year meant zero passing-game safety net, so any quiet rushing day collapsed into a single-digit fantasy day.

Sutton's 2025 was a volume-driven number 13 finish that played more like a number 21 on a per-week basis — true alpha workload on a winning team, tied to a passing game that wasn't always explosive. The weakness the data flagged: only 222 yards after the catch on 74 receptions means he needed the touchdown to hit a usable week, and four sub-6-point games show what happens when it doesn't.

Jaylen Waddle's 2025 was a back-end starter season — the number 24 wide receiver in total points per reception scoring as the top target on a 14-and-3 team, with usage that outpaced the fantasy output. The weakness the data flagged: just 6 touchdowns on 100 targets and a 64 percent catch rate tied to a quarterback throwing below expected completion — the efficiency leak that kept solid volume from becoming top-15 production.

Harvey's rookie year was a touchdown-and-receptions fantasy line propped up by a 14-win offense — the number 20 back in total PPR, the number 24 in per-game, with a boom-or-bust weekly profile. The weakness the data screams is efficiency between the tackles: minus 90.8 rushing yards over expected and 3.7 a carry, while his backfield mate averaged 5.1 on the same blocking.

Bo Nix smashed his way to a top-ten fantasy quarterback season on the back of full-season availability, rushing scores, and a winning team — not because he was elite throwing the football. The clearest weakness in the data: a completion percentage over expected of minus 2.1, ranked 28th, paired with an adjusted net yards per attempt of 6.0, ranked 21st. The efficiency has to climb for the ceiling to climb with it.

Season MVP is Courtland Sutton — seventy-four catches, one thousand seventeen yards, seven touchdowns, and plus forty-five point six in receiving expected points added as the one true outside threat that kept this passing game in the top ten. The thing to fix: pass protection. Twenty-three sacks allowed sounds low until you see it ranked thirty-second of thirty-two by sack rate, the third percentile in the league. Bo Nix took seventy quarterback hits behind that line, and that number has to come down.