CLIMAS - Southwest Climate Podcast

Recorded 04/03/2026, Aired 04/07/2026 Hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins go full coroner in this month’s episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast and do an autopsy of the record-setting March heat wave.  Expect fluid dynamics, conservation of angular momentum, and level of divergence type of nerding for this deep dive. They go over the heat impacts to snowpack and forecasted streamflow, and the end of month precipitation event which looked monsoonal.  Lastly there is some excitement for the upcoming super El Niño that’s brewing.  Stick around on this long-ish one for a full explainer on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation - at the 1:02:43 mark.    Mentions: Climate Perspectives - Western Region Paper: “Synthesis of Publications on the Anomalous June 2021 Heat Wave in the Pacific Northwest of the United States and Canada” USDA - NRCS: Snowpack & Streamflow RainLog NOAA - CPC: El Niño Southern Oscillation NOAA - NCEI: Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)  

Recorded 03/03/2026, Aired 03/04/2026   In this month’s episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins rank their favorite months of the year - and June gets no love.  They recap February’s weather which was high and dry but not much else.  There’s a discussion on ENSO with a deep dive into a couple related papers of note.  And with the end of meteorological winter they cover the bleak snowpack conditions in the west. Towards the end there is a look into the models to see what is on the horizon - including for the monsoon.  Stick around for an announcement on the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts game with a lot of new exciting features - you won’t want to miss!     Mentions:  NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Discussion Paper: “Southern Hemisphere Surface Warming Drives Southwestern U.S. Precipitation according to AI-Informed Climate Model Simulations” Paper: “Anthropogenic Intensification of Cool-Season Precipitation Is Not Yet Detectable Across the Western United States” USDA - Natural Resources Conservation Service: NWCC Interactive Map NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: Season Forecasts National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) International Multi-Model Ensemble 

  Recorded 01/30/2026, Aired 02/02/2026   Hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are kicking off 2026 with a look at this winter’s weird weather in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast.  They do a recap of the last couple of months of precip and temps.  They do a review of large scale climate patterns - Madden–Julian Oscillation, Greenland Block - and get into a deep discussion about the Polar Vortex.  They cover the not-so-great coverage of snowpack and look at the forecasts through peak season going forward.  Rounding out the episode is the NOAA announcement on RONI (a topic of past episodes) and a preview of the AI focused episode that is in the works.    Mentions: Paper: Arctic sea ice decline and continental cold anomalies: Upstream and downstream effects of Greenland blocking Paper: What Is the Polar Vortex and How Does It Influence Weather? Figure 2 Figure 1 Article: Stratospheric Warming Confirmed: Polar Vortex Collapse to Bring Major Weather Disruption in the Coming Weeks Article: February forecast calls for more polar vortex mayhem Article: Snow Drought in the West Reaches Record Levels NOAA NWS - Climate Prediction Center: Forecasts NOAA NWS - Public Information Statement: Implementing a Relative Oceanic Niño Index effective February 1, 2026 NOAA NWS - Information Circular: Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) Paper: Northern Hemisphere Wintertime Teleconnections from the 2023–24 El Niño Offset by Background SST Trends

  Recorded 12/19/2025, Aired 12/22/2025 In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast episode, hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are feeling good about the warmer than normal December temps.  They start out with a look at recent conditions, including the persistent ridge keeping us dry this month.  This leads to a review of a paper on the Heat Dome of 2023 - and what all this warmth means for snowpack in the west.  They give their End of Year review of heat, fire and precipitation in 2025.  Rounding out the episode is a telling of each of their picks for the Climate Story of the Year for the Southwest.   Mentions: Climate Anomaly Maps and Tables Paper: “The longest-lasting 2023 western North American heat wave was fueled by the record-warm Atlantic Ocean” USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service - Snowpack Map Southwest U.S. Station Climate Summaries SWCC: Southwest Year-To-Date Wildland Fire Activity Webinar: Globe/Miami Flooding Event of September 2025: Weather and Climate Overview NOAA NWS: Climate Prediction Center - Outlooks NOAA NWS: North American Multi-Model Ensemble International Multi-Model Ensemble

Recorded 11/07/2025, Aired 11/10/2025 Hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are enjoying the recent fall weather in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast episode.  The hosts recap October which had some pretty interesting storm activity.  There is a summary of the hurricane season - including the category 5 Melissa that had devastating impacts in the Caribbean.  They cover the fall to winter transition patterns.  Then the podcast ends with a discussion on the weak developing La Niña which may or may not relieve the drought pressure with some winter precipitation.     Mentions: NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: Forecasts Southwest U.S. Station Climate Summaries Video - Hurricane Hunters pass through the eye of Melissa NOAA - National Hurricane Center NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: ENSO National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): JFM Precipitation ***If you receive an error message on any of the NOAA websites, try using an incognito browser window  

Recorded 10/03/2025, Aired 10/06/2025 In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins kick it off by saying goodbye to the monsoon.  They do a recap of the season with a focus on last month's rain events.  September was interesting to say the least - this leads to a philosophical discussion on whether it is the same flavor as the rest of the monsoon.  The hosts tie up the episode with what’s on the horizon for this coming winter & the ENSO forecast.     Mentions: Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping Southwest U.S. Station Climate Summaries Monsoon Precipitation Totals with Rankings 2025 NOAA NWS - Climate Prediction Center NOAA NWS - Climate Prediction Center: ENSO North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)

August 2025 SW Climate Podcast - At Wits End Recorded 8/29/2025, Aired 9/2/2025 We are over two-thirds of the way through this year’s monsoon and in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins have a bit of a therapy session. They do a round up of July and August which they call the most uninteresting monsoon. There is a deep dive on what is driving this picture of night and day between Arizona and New Mexico.  They give a look towards September with all eyes on the eastern Pacific tropical activity as the wildcard.  They eventually learn to appreciate the subtleties and accept their relationship with the Southwest Monsoon.    Mentions: Monsoon Season Station Climate Summaries Paper: Dominant patterns of US warm season precipitation variability in a fine resolution observational record, with focus on the southwest North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) University of Arizona's Weather Research and Forecasting Model (UA WRF) SW US Monsoon Precipitation Mapping - Past Seasons NOAA - NWS: Climate Prediction Center

Recorded 07/23/2025, Aired 07/24/2025 Hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast focus on the current unusual monsoon for the entire episode.  All the ingredients are there - but it is not your typical season.  They cover the southwesterly flow, what the heck is going on with the four corners high, and the low that’s been sitting off the coast of California.  They dive into a recent rain event that was attributed to a Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) and how the monsoon has done so far across Arizona and New Mexico which is a tale of 2 states.  Lastly, hear how the hosts are doing on their predictions for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts game.   You can still play if you haven’t signed up yet.  August Predictions for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecast game are due next Thursday 7/31 before midnight - See if you can beat Mike this next month!   Mentions: NWS - Tucson: Dewpoint Tracker Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping NWS - Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): August Precipitation TropicalTidbits: GFS Model

Recorded 06/24/2025, Aired 06/26/2025 In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast we are in the final countdown to the monsoon.  To get us started, host Zack Guido quizzes host Mike Crimmins on his climatology knowledge.  They then cover this past month’s heat ramp up, take a walk down monsoon history over the past few seasons, and look at past conditions as a precursor to get the monsoon party started.  Then close out with our current conditions and what the forecasts are saying.  Will the tropical storm activity be this year’s wildcard?!? Don’t forget to sign up and make your predictions for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts game.  Forecasts for July must be entered by June 30 at 11:59 PM.   Mentions: Paper: “Is the North American monsoon self-limiting?” Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping 30 Day-ish Climate Tracking for Southwest U.S. 2025 Hurricane Forecast by Xubin Zeng and Kyle Davis - University of Arizona NOAA NWS - Climate Prediction Center: Season Forecasts North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) International Multi Model Ensemble  ECMWF: Run AI models yourself from ECMWF open data

Recorded 5/16/2025, Aired 05/20/2025 The Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are ready to start counting down the days to this year’s monsoon season.  But before they get into the monsoon preview - they do a final winter recap and review April and May’s weather patterns.  They also cover the fire season so far, and Mike gets to share on his upcoming paper “Changing Climate, Changing Fire: Understanding Ecosystem-Specific Fire-Climate Dynamics in Arizona and New Mexico”. Stick around for the monsoon discussion at the end so you can be informed - or at least entertained - in time for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts Game starting next month!    Mentions: Paper: “Glacial reduction of the North American Monsoon via surface cooling and atmospheric ventilation” National Interagency Coordination Center - National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: 3 Month Seasonal Outlook North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) - Precipitation Forecast AZ State Climate Office Monthly Webinar Series - NWS Tucson Presentation: 2025 Monsoon Outlook International Multi-Model Ensemble (IMME) - Precipitation Forecast

Recorded 3/28/2025, Aired 4/1/2025 For this month's Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins deliver a fully robust episode.  They review the abysmal winter season, breeze through our ‘meh’ March, cover the snowpack conditions and drought situation - which all could lead up to a potentially active fire hazard season.  Stick around for the deep dive into the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and what to expect for the seasonal forecasts into the monsoon season.      Mentions: Climate Science Applications Program - University of Arizona Cooperative Extension: Station Maps USDA - NRCS: National Water and Climate Center Interactive Map Paper: Recent Upper Colorado River Streamflow Declines Driven by Loss of Spring Precipitation” NICC: National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook U.S. Drought Monitor PDO Paper: “A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production" PDO Paper: “The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Revisited” NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: Seasonal Outlook Precipitation (JAS) North American Multi-Model Ensemble: Seasonal Forecast Precipitation (JAS)

Recorded 2/14/2025, Aired 2/18/2025 It’s a new year and in this month’s episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are looking for good news.  Zack gives a tour of recent statistics for the past few months and Mike goes over the related atmospheric happenings.  They cover La Niña and the climatology of the Southwest during this winter season.  Can we shake off this persistent dry spell and bring on a magnificent March?  Lastly they cover the Santa Ana winds which played a part in the destructive L.A. fires and begin to delve into AI weather modeling and forecasting.   Mentions: ENSO Blog: February 2025 La Niña update: La Niña today, gone tomorrow?  Paper: Changes in atmospheric rivers and moisture transport over the Northeast Pacific and western North America in response to ENSO diversity Scripps: Center For Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) Southeast Regional Climate Center (SERCC): Climate Perspectives - West Paper: Ignitions explain more than temperature or precipitation in driving Santa Ana wind fires European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School - ENSO Plumes Billy Idol - State Line: Live At The Hoover Dam

Recorded 12/06/2024 Aired 12/10/2024   In this month’s episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins slow-roll into the winter season.  They look back on 2024 followed by what happened in November and why - including the Atmospheric River event on the west coast.  They dive into a recent paper that interrogates the expected intensification of cool season precipitation in the west.  And close out with a teaser look at the La Niña outlook and precipitation forecast with a highlight of the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI).     Mentions: Paper: “Anthropogenic Intensification of Cool-Season Precipitation Is Not Yet Detectable Across the Western United States”   ENSO Blog: “Can a little La Niña pack a big precipitation punch?” Related Paper: “A Relative Sea Surface Temperature Index for Classifying ENSO Events in a Changing Climate” North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) NOAA - Climate Prediction Center (CPC)

Recorded 11/1/2024 Aired 11/5/2024 The Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are grateful that fall is (finally) here.  In this month’s episode, they unpack the persistent heat that hung around through October as well as blocking patterns.  They discuss the two major hurricanes that made landfall - Helene and Milton.  And get into the current ENSO forecast which is pointing to a weak La Niña.  Lastly, they dive into a couple papers as a way to think differently about ENSO and winter as they look ahead.  Buckle up as it could be a wild ride!   Mentions: The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School: ENSO Forecast NOAA - CPC:  El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) NOAA - ENSO Blog: Revisiting La Nina and winter snowfall Climate.gov - ENSO Graphic: Typical late fall through early spring upper level jet stream positions associated with moderate to strong La Niña and El Niño events NOAA - CPC - ENSO Graphic: North American Winter Features Paper 1: Reinterpreting ENSO's Role in Modulating Impactful Precipitation Events in California Paper 2: How Well Do Seasonal Climate Anomalies Match Expected El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Impacts? NOAA - CPC:  Three-Month Outlooks

Recorded 9/20/2024 Aired 9/24/2024 In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack ‘Generational’ Guido and Mike “Dewpoint’ Crimmins break down what the heck happened to the second half of the monsoon this year.  They unpack the recent Atlantic tropical activity, or lack thereof, as well as any hope for the Pacific to bring some moisture to the Southwest.  They end with some coverage of the rest of September and a look into the early winter outlooks.  This episode is not without controversy - so download / stream today!   Generational Count = 11   Mentions: Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping Southwest U.S. Station Climate Summaries NOAA Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor System (MRMS) The More Extreme Nature of North American Monsoon Precipitation in the Southwestern United States as Revealed by a Historical Climatology of Simulated Severe Weather Events RainLog CoCoRaHS NOAA - CPC: Outlooks NWS - Tucson: Avg Daily Dewpoint Tracker IRI, Columbia University Climate School: ENSO Forecast North American Multi-Model Ensemble

Recorded 8/16//2024 Aired 8/20/2024   Now that we are over halfway through the 2024 monsoon season, this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins don their chef hats and lay out the main ingredients of the monsoon.  They give a recap of recent rain events, answer the question of whether or not the characteristics of convective storm dynamics have changed, and offer their thoughts on what is on the horizon for September.  Great timing as 8/31 is your last chance to join in the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts game this year!       Mentions: RainLog “Understanding the Dominant Sources and Tracks of Moisture for Summer Rainfall in the Southwest United States” NWS - Tucson: Monsoon Tracker Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping "Intensification of the North American Monsoon Rainfall as Observed From a Long-Term High-Density Gauge Network" "Observed humidity trends in dry regions contradict climate models" NWS - Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts Game AZ Central “Why is the monsoon so unpredictable? It takes a lot to make a good thunderstorm”

Recorded 7/19/2024 Aired 7/23/2024   Get ready for a big episode day as this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins kick off the monsoon season.  The crew cover the evolution of the current monsoon phases from onset to where we are today with stats and analysis.  And there is even a bit of a philosophical introspection on the data and sources (do you believe?).  Your hosts share what they have learned along the way - but stick around to the end to get their hot take on what is coming next.   Also - It’s not too late to sign up for the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecast Game as there are monthly prizes this year!   Mentions: Arizona Institute of Resilience - Power Forecasting Group  - Monsoon Forecasting Discussion Blog   - Contact to get on mailing list = Patrick Bunn, [email protected] Map - Percent of Average Precipitation (AZ & NM) RainLog Climate Reference Network Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts Game NOAA - Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks 

It’s June - which means in this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast, hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins can officially talk about the monsoon.  Before they deep dive into the 2024 monsoon season, they cover recent conditions from last month, the fire risk and its relationship to the monsoon, and then get right down to business.  The stakes are high with a beer going to which host betters the other in v.4 of the Monsoon Fantasy Forecast game this year (sign up today).     Recorded: Friday, June 7, 2024  Aired: Tuesday, June 11, 2024   Mentions: Southwest Coordination Center - Outlooks National Interagency Coordination Center - Outlooks Drought.gov - Soil Moisture North American Multi-Model Ensemble NOAA - Climate Prediction Center Tropical Tidbits - GFS Forecast Model

Welcome to this special episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast with guest hosts: Gigi Owen & Christina Greene.  In this special episode, we bring you 3 guests that were all part of the CLIMAS Environment & Society Fellowship program over the past year.  A lot of the science that CLIMAS researchers do is done collaboratively with and for our community partners so that the science that we do ends up being useful to decision-making and policy development and planning.  Our Fellowship program offers University of Arizona graduate students the opportunity to take this kind of collaborative approach to address environmental and societal problems.  Our fellows are here today to share more about their work and what they've been up to over the past year.    2023 CLIMAS Environment & Society Fellows Hannah Friedrich “Mapping tarps and stories to spotlight inequitable disaster recovery”   Majerle Lister “Re-Thinking Land and History: Working with Navajo Mountain Soil Water Conservation District Members”   Lucas Belury “Flood Justice in South Texas”   Talia Anderson *Unable to attend podcast recording “What's going on with the rains?”

It’s that time and we are 6 weeks away from the start of the 2024 monsoon season.  In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast, hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins cover the end of the winter season, the transition month of April and give an early preview to the monsoon.  Will the shift from El Niño to La Niña make for a dry or wet monsoon or active hurricane season?  Will Zack break Mike’s eternal optimism with what the forecast models are saying?  Listen in so you can be ready to play the Monsoon Fantasy Forecast Game!     Recorded: May 3, 2024 Aired: May 8, 2024   Mentions: University of Arizona Cooperative Extension - Climate Sciences Applications Climate.gov ENSO blog - “Untangling the winter 2023-24 precipitation forecast ball of yarn” Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping University of Arizona News - “Brace for a very active hurricane season this year, warn UArizona forecasters” NWS - CPC North American Multi-Model Ensemble

In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast hosts Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins look back at winter to share insights on the late-loaded precipitation, as well as current snowpack conditions and streamflow forecasts.  The hosts discuss how El Niño played out as it starts its transition to La Niña and what to look out for this coming spring setting up this year’s monsoon season.  And stay tuned for news on this year's Monsoon Fantasy competition on the next Pod! Recorded: Friday, Mar 29, 2024     Aired: Tuesday, Apr 2, 2024

February 2024 SW Climate Podcast – El Niño’s Getting Late It’s the new year and Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are back to give the lowdown on what’s happening in regards to the Southwest Climate in this month’s Podcast. They cover this past winter’s three-month pattern and overall conditions. Then they get global with the current state of El Niño and its influence on atmospheric rivers and other precip events seen in the first half of February. There’s a quick look at the resulting snowpack - which is an important feature of the west’s water supply. And finally they round it out with a look to the rest of the month which may or may not be the rally we need for a typical wet El Niño before La Niña comes back around. Mentions: ENSO Blog: “February 2024 ENSO Outlook: All along the La Niña WATCH-tower” https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/february-2024-enso-outlook-all-along-la-nina-watch-tower Paper: “Observed Hydrologic Impacts of Landfalling Atmospheric Rivers in the Salt and Verde River Basins of Arizona, United States” https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020778 National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center: Outlooks https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ USDA - Natural Resources Conservation Service: Snow and Water Interactive Map https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/resources/data-and-reports/snow-and-water-interactive-map National Interagency Coordination Center: Fire Outlook https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-services/outlooks CLIMAS Member(s):   Zack Guido Michael Crimmins

December 2023 SW Climate Podcast – Special MailBag Episode Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins sharpened their pencils, hit the library, and did their homework to bring you a very special MailBag episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast for this month.  Thank you to all the listeners for sending in your questions and for trying to stump our hosts.  This episode is not to be missed - so grab a cup of coffee and get ready to be schooled before heading off for the end of semester break.  And have a Happy Holidays from the Southwest Climate Podcast crew! Mentions: Question 1: We are based in Northeast New Mexico in the I-25 corridor. What is the predominant drivers of summer weather and precipitation.  Are we full-on monsoonal, more influenced by plains state weather patterns, or somewhere in between? Dan The climate of the US Southwest, Sheppard et. al. 2002 Question 2: There seemed to be an abundance of DCAPE this season, which is perhaps related to all the strong winds and hail we had this monsoon. what is DCAPE? Sarah Question 3: It seems that an albedo effect after a good snowpack tends to influence/add to a poor monsoon, to some degree, through delayed surface heating… Does that hold any water or stick to the wall? Mark Observed Influence of Soil Moisture on the North American Monsoon: An Assessment Using the Stepwise Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment Method, Wang et. al. 2021 Question 4: I’m wondering whether there’s a clear “global warming” signal yet in the monsoon? Sarah Intensification of the North American Monsoon Rainfall as Observed From a Long-Term High-Density Gauge Network, Demaria et. al. 2019 Weakening of the North American monsoon with global warming, Pascale et. al. 2017 Increasing Future Precipitation in the Southwestern US in the Summer and Its Contrasting Mechanism With Decreasing Precipitation in the Spring, Liang et. al. 2022 The North American Monsoon precipitation response to climate warming at convection-permitting scales, Wallace et. al. 2023 Future Land Precipitation Changes Over the North American Monsoon Region Using CMIP5 and CMIP6 Simulations, Hernandez et. al. 2022 Question 5: We're wondering if anyone is studying whether climate change could eliminate the North American Monsoon as we know it and leave Arizona high and dry during the annual monsoon. Bruce & Joanna  Glacial reduction of the North American Monsoon via surface cooling and atmospheric ventilation, Tierney (2nd) et. al. 2017 Question 6: Like many people in the Tucson area I'm engaged in a lot of outdoor activities, and during monsoon these activities get pushed further up the mountains for temperature reasons. One thing that is always a complicating factor is trying to read the weather pattern to determine whether we're going to get dumped on or caught in a storm. Some clouds pass right over without a peep, others seem to become a problem quite suddenly.  Are there a few tips you can share for how to read the different monsoon clouds? Neal in Tucson   CLIMAS Member(s):   Zack Guido Michael Crimmins

November 2023 SW Climate Podcast – Winter is Coming In this month’s Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are back from Thanksgiving to give a recap of November, which was not much to write home about.  They start gearing us up for the next few months by taking a look back at previous winters and give a glimpse into this coming season as far as impacts, synoptic features, and large-scale drivers.  The team rounds it out with a deep dive into El Niño and the complex forecasting that may or may not bring us some needed winter precipitation.  Also - the monsoon is gone but not forgotten! Last Call! The Southwest Climate Podcast is looking to do a special MailBag episode for the end of 2023!  We are asking for listeners to send in their questions - Can be anything Southwest Climate related or try and stump the hosts by sending in your inquiries and postulations at [email protected].  Mentions:  U.S. Drought Monitor: Current Map - West National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center: Outlook National Weather Service - Climate Prediction Center: North American Multi-Model Ensemble USDA - NRCS: Map - Snow Water Equivalent  “Investigating Runoff Efficiency in Upper Colorado River Streamflow Over Past Centuries” Climate.gov - ENSO Blog: “S(no)w pain, S(no)w gain: How does El Niño affect snowfall over North America?” CLIMAS Member(s):   Michael Crimmins Zack Guido

Goodbye, adios, sayonara - In this month’s podcast, the crew is ready to put the 2023 monsoon in the rearview mirror.  Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins give this year’s monsoon season recap and the only good thing to say is that ‘at least it was not 2020’ :(  They cover what happened in September, review temperature and precipitation as well as the tropical storm season that prevented a full out non-soon.  We also get to hear the results of the Monsoon Madness game winners and take a look forward to a strong-leaning El Niño coming this winter.   Attention! For the first time for the Southwest Climate Podcast we are requesting listeners to send in their questions for a special MailBag episode in December.  Try and stump the hosts by sending in your inquiries and postulations at [email protected].     Mentions: RainLog Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) Model Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)     CLIMAS Member(s):   Zack Guido Michael Crimmins

In wrapping up a double-punch storm here in August ‘23, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are here to deconstruct the current monsoon season.  They discuss various analogs to this year, cover Hurricane Hilary that made its way up through the western U.S. as well as the potential for additional tropical storms to bring more precipitation to the Southwest.  Lastly they end on their predictions for September and into winter.  Good luck to all the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts participants out there!   Mentions: Pima County Regional Flood Control District - Rainfall Map RainLog Southwest U.S. Summer Monsoon Season Precipitation Mapping National Weather Service - Tucson: Monsoon Climate Perspectives @NWSPhoenix - Outflow Radar Paper: “The Contribution of Eastern North Pacific Tropical Cyclones to the Rainfall Climatology of the Southwest United States” CPC: 1 Month Outlook - Sept     {"Generational" Count = 1}   CLIMAS Member(s):   Michael Crimmins Zack Guido

Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins bring you the July '23 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast to tease out what the heck is happening with this year's monsoon.  They cover some of the record-breaking heat in July, look back at the historical record of past monsoons to find an analog to this year, weigh in on whether any or all can be attributed to the El Niño flex, and lay out their predictions for the Monsoon Fantasy game.  They may not have any definitive answers, but at least you'll get an insightful look at this summer's puzzling monsoon. Mentions: Arizona Station-based Drought Tracker Climate Perspectives Eric Webb on Twitter @webberweather North American Multi-Model Ensemble Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School - ENSO Forecast   CLIMAS Member(s):   Michael Crimmins Zack Guido

If you aren't thinking about the 2023 Monsoon Season, this Kick Off episode for the June 2023 Southwest Climate Podcast is just what you need.  Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are here to dive into the May / June review, a look at the current wildfire season, a brief chat about drought, then get into the recent Tex-Mex Heat Dome and dive right into the nitty gritty of the upcoming '23 Monsoon Season. They follow it up with an overview of the flex of El Niño, some hurricane looks - and last but not least - Monsoon Predictions.   If you haven't signed up for the Monsoon Fantasy game yet - This is your alarm clock!  Forecasts for July must be cast by June 30 at 11:59 PM! Sign up today to play!   Mentions: RainLog Southwest Coordination Center (SWCC) 'Wavy' Jet Stream - Twitter Monsoon Fantasy   ["Generational" Count = 7]   CLIMAS Member(s):   Zack Guido Michael Crimmins

Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins are back in the May 2023 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast where they are asking the real questions:  Has it been a quiet spring?  What was with that Monsoon-y Too Soon Maysoon?  Why is it so hot in the Southwest?  What are the models showing for the upcoming Monsoon season?  And how come those models are throwing shade?  Join the crew as they do a deep dive into the data to give their answers, explainers as well as a bit of the usual banter.   Mentions: CoCoRaHS RainLog NOAA Blog: "May 2023 ENSO update: El Niño knocking on the door" WMO: "Global temperatures set to reach new records in next five years" James Hansen: "Global Temperature in 2022"   CLIMAS Member(s):   Zack Guido Michael Crimmins

For this special edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast Gigi Owen sits down with the CLIMAS exiting 2022 Environment & Society Fellows for a recap of their projects during their year as well as some words of wisdom for the incoming Fellows. Host: Gigi Owen 2022 Environment & Society Fellows:  Julia Davies Barriers to urban agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa Governance of traditional markets and rural-urban food systems in sub-Saharan Africa  Jake Dean  Rachel Zollinger Being for Somebody: Museum Inclusion During COVID-19 Community Ecology: Museum Education and the Digital Divide During and After COVID-19 "Science from the Past and for the Future: Learning from Indigenous Knowledge for Climate Change Adaptation" Explora: https://www.explora.us/ CLIMAS Member(s):   Gigi Owen

In the March 2023 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido still have plenty to talk about!  The pod starts out with a recap of the month of March’s precipitation and temperature followed by a discussion of whether ENSO played a role.  Then they plow (pun intended) into the ‘Big Winter Stories’ covering historical snowpack, atmospheric rivers, extremes and drought.  Stick around for the streamflow conversation as well as what Mike and Zack are looking forward to.    Mentions: Southeast Regional Climate Center - Climate Perspectives Tool – Western Region NOAA ENSO Blog: “Did La Niña drench the Southwest United States in early winter 2022/23?” SCRIPPS Center For Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) - Atmospheric River Tally NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Photo from Mammoth Mountain Rutz et. al. "Climatological Characteristics of Atmospheric Rivers and Their Inland Penetration over the Western United States" U.S. Drought Monitor   ("Generational" Count = 7) CLIMAS Member(s):   Michael Crimmins Zack Guido

In the February 2023 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido return after a bit of a hiatus, and have a lot to talk about (buckle up!).  Across the pod, they recap the winter conditions in the Southwest, talk about how this did/did-not live up to expectations for a La Niña winter, the effect some really widespread winter storm activity had across the western US, and what this means for snowpack and water supply going into spring. CLIMAS Member(s):   Michael Crimmins Zack Guido Ben McMahan

In the November episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido check in with some extended weather/transition events over the last few months, and how this relates to monsoon-like vs. fall and winter events. They work through a set of possible scenarios for winter, and what we might expect with the current (triple dip!) La Nina event already underway, but with a likely transition to ENSO-neutral by early 2023. They bring back the 'hazard report' to talk through the kinds of weather events and hazards we might see over winter, and wrap with a discussion of the winter forecasts and what we'll be watching over winter to track how the season progresses.  They also chat briefly about Ben McMahan (that's me!) changing jobs and having left UA in October (I'll keep helping with the podcast for who knows how long, but it's too much fun each month to let go easily, so we're exploring our options!). CLIMAS Member(s):   Ben McMahan Michael Crimmins Zack Guido

A note on the podcast, especially to those in our UA community that are grieving. We mourn the loss of our friend and colleague, Tom Meixner, who was killed on the University of Arizona campus on October 5th, 2022. We recorded the podcast the day before, and our tone reflects our joyful enthusiasm for weather and climate in the Southwest, something that Tom certainly shared. We wanted to acknowledge this tragic event and express our heartfelt condolences to his family, friends, and colleagues. We’ll miss you, Tom. In the October 2022 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss where 2022 stands in relation to other years, landing on 2022 as a sneaky candidate for one of the best SW-regional monsoons, ever.  They talk through the various ways one might assess monsoon performance, what happened in September, and how to make sense of all the lingering storm activity in early October, despite the monsoon being officially over. They wrap with a quick nod to winter and the incoming triple-dip La Niña, and what this might mean for the Southwest this winter.

In the September episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido catch up on where the monsoon ranks through August, and what September might bring (and how that might affect those rankings). After a tour of regional stats and how various parts of the Southwest are faring with the monsoon, Zack and Mike take a deeper dive into some comparisons with previous monsoon years, to see where 2022 stacks up, and how one might go about identifying the top 3-4 monsoons, based on coverage, intensity, and how sustained the precipitation was in that year. They wrap with a quick discussion of monsoon fantasy and what the forecasts hint at for the rest of September and into Fall. If you want to play along and rank your top 3-4 monsoons, Mike's maps of past monsoon years and the NWS Tucson Monsoon Tracker are great resources to take a closer look at spatial coverage and station records and ranks.  New UA Coop Extension Bulletin "Guide to Southwest US Station Climate Summaries" and find the summaries here

In this episode of The Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to talk through the last month of monsoon activity, how the monsoon is performing around the region (and at their houses). They follow up with some discussions of MCV/MCS dynamics based on a listener question and try to make the case whether this is a good monsoon or a bad monsoon.  Finally, they dive back into the monsoon fantasy game to see how the first month looks with a few days to go.  Two notes: Monsoon Fantasy Game: If you are reading this (or listening) before Aug 1, you still have time to log your August guesses for the Monsoon Fantasy Game: monsoonfantasy.arizona.edu/ Listener Survey: We have a short (5 min) survey for our listeners (or prospective listeners) and would very much appreciate some brief and anonymous info that will let us know how folks use the podcast, and what we can do to improve it.  Find the survey at: tinyurl.com/swclimatepod

In the June 2022 episode of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido apologize for the extended (and unintentional) break from podcasting, before diving into to a wide ranging "catch-up" episode that recaps winter and spring conditions, discusses regional hazards we see in spring into summer, and touches on the forecast and outlook for the summer...and the monsoon! They wrap with a discussion of the monsoon, whether this year could ever live up to last year and what led to last year's conditions, before addressing the excitement that a few outlooks have caused, and the early storms that have been building to the south. They also discuss the return of the Monsoon Fantasy Game and talk about how you can play and test your forecast skills against the "experts".  Happy Monsoon!  For more information on the monsoon, be sure to check out the updated Monsoon Tracker from NWS Tucson: https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/twc/monsoon/monsoon_tracker.php. Monsoon Fantasy Forecast Game The monsoon fantasy forecast game is back!  The game is largely the same. You make rainfall forecasts at five cities each month. You score points based on the accuracy and riskiness of your forecasts. Here’s what is new this year: You can make your forecasts for the month until midnight the final day of the previous month. For example, you have until June 30 at 11:59 PM to make your forecasts for July. Same goes for August and September. There are Amazon gift card prizes for the top 3 finishers at values of $400, $300, and $200, courtesy of the Arizona Institutes for Resilient Environments and Societies. Mike, Zack, and Ben will be talking about the monsoon and the leaderboard each month on the Southwest Climate Podcast. For more details or to play: https://monsoonfantasy.arizona.edu/home Calling last year’s monsoon fantasy players - Can you spare 2 minutes to help? If you played last year, the game team would be grateful for two minutes of your time to answer five simple questions. Responses are anonymous. They will help them publish a description of the game.  https://uarizona.co1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_bd88HC6pAoWjGwS  

This episode is a break from the Southwest Climate Podcast, but Zack and Mike will be back in April to talk all things Southwest Climate.  In this special episode, Gigi Owen sits down for one on one conversations with Moriah Bailey Stephenson, Simone Williams, and Lea Schram von Haupt (the 2021 CLIMAS E&S Grad Fellows) to chat with each of them about their reflections and perspectives and their fellowship experience. You can also find more information about their projects in blog posts at climas.arizona.edu/blog. CLIMAS Member(s):   Bailey Stephenson Ben McMahan Gigi Owen Lea Schram von Haupt Simone A. Williams

In the Mar 2022 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido dive into a recap of winter (so far) in the Southwest. First, recap winter to date, and put it in the context of a double-dip La Niña, including precipitation totals, temperature, and snowpack. Then they take a closer look at the phases of the PNA (Pacific/North American pattern) and how this links to ENSO/La Niña and the weather conditions this winter. Finally, they revisit temperature to consider just how "cold" it has actually been, and preview a closer look at fire outlooks, snowpack, and water supply in upcoming podcasts. CLIMAS Member(s):   Ben McMahan Michael Crimmins Zack Guido

In the January 2022 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido dive into the winter weather so far, tracking how this lines up with expectations in a La Niña year, and what to track this winter to look for La Nina effects - temperature, snow water equivalent, streamflow forecasts, etc.  They also take a closer look at the jetstream and the role this plays in winter weather in the Southwest, and where these recent events (and the monsoon) leave us in terms of drought.  They wrap with some discussion of the outlooks for the next month/season, as well as some obligatory pining for the monsoon. Discussed in this episode: The Climatology of Synoptic-Scale Ascent over Western North America: A Perspective on Storm Tracks (Loreau & Horel, 2012) https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-11-00203.1

In the December/Holiday edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down for a quick look at the weather of the last month or so, some recent events bringing winter storms to the region, and what a La Nina might bring in the rest of 2021 and through the rest of winter 2022. They also reflect on 2021 and memorable events in the Southwest, and not surprisingly, this brings them both back to monsoon 2021. Thanks again to everyone who listens and supports the podcast, we hope everyone has a happy, restful, and safe holiday.   See you in 2022!

In the November edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido look back to monsoon 2021 to do a recap of the seasonal totals.  They are joined by Paul Iniguez, the Science and Operations Officer for the National Weather Service office in Phoenix, to take a closer look at the 2021 monsoon, how it stacked up around the region, and to hear a bit more about how the NWS offices work across the monsoon. This is a single focus episode - see the Oct 2021 episode for the normal monthly roundup and recap. Watch this space: https://www.weather.gov/psr/eventsummaries for the 2021 monsoon recap from NWS Phoenix, as well as some detailed storm event reports from across the season (and year).

In the October 2021 edition of the Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido reconvene after a long pause to revisit recent conditions in September and October, dive into what ENSO and La Niña might have in store for the Southwest, and what the Double Dip is and why it's more likely in back to back La Niñas.  For monsoon fantasy players, they recap the monsoon game and how the leaderboard shook up in the final day in the first segment.  Production note: We recorded two podcasts this week, the standard monthly recap (this podcast) and a monsoon recap extravaganza with Paul Iniguez of the NWS office up in Phoenix.  Look for that monsoon recap podcast in a few days (also in this feed) and keep an eye on the NWS pages for their in-depth monsoon recaps.

In the September Edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to revisit last month's discussion of a generational monsoon. They check in around the region to see how various locations are faring and discuss the interesting patterns they've seen in monsoon activity so far. They put the totals to date into climatological context and rankings, to see who is experiencing a generational monsoon, vs. areas that are "just" above average (or who are lagging behind).  They wrap with a discussion of "Is the Monsoon Over" - and talk about the reasons why you may/may not think so, and what the transition season means for the last few weeks of the monsoon (and the final seasonal rankings).

In the August 2021 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss the "monsoon that comes to you" (i.e. it's just about everywhere, and it just keeps coming!).  They discuss the (record) July for some areas, as well as the well above average conditions around much of the region. They also deconstruct the elements that are feeding into this persistent monsoon rainfall and take a deep dive into a few of the events that have contributed to impressive totals.  They wrap up with a discussion of outlooks for the rest of the season, whether any stations might hit record monsoon totals (Tucson is definitely in the running), and what this has meant for the monsoon fantasy game (suffice to say, the guesses for July did not anticipate the record wet conditions). Resources Discussed: https://cals.arizona.edu/climate/misc/SWMonsoonMaps/current/swus_monsoon.html https://www.weather.gov/psr/StormReportfor2126July2021 https://monsoon.environment.arizona.edu/ https://rainlog.org/map https://monsoonfantasy.arizona.edu/home

In the (mid/late) July edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido are back at it, given all that happened with the monsoon since early July.  First, they dive into monsoon conditions around the region, to put them into climatological perspective, while discussing some of the defining characteristics of the monsoon. Next they grapple with the question: Is this shaping up to be an all-timer for July, given all the rain that's already fallen (and what is in the forecast for the rest of July)?  The answer is complicated (tune in to hear where they land on this).  Finally, they look a bit at the forecasts and outlooks for the upcoming weeks and months and remind us about the monsoon fantasy game that we are running this monsoon. A reminder from the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecasts game: We pose this question to you: will August be wet, dry, or in between at stations around the Southwest? So far, the monsoon has been wet in many places, with an active monsoon pattern over the next few days likely to add more to the totals. This is our final reminder: you will only be able to make your August forecasts up until 11:59 pm tomorrow night, Friday (Jul 23). We then lock the forecasts so that you can't use the 7-day weather forecast to inform your estimates.  Submit your August Guesses: https://monsoonfantasy.arizona.edu/home  

In the June/early-July edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss weather and climate in the Southwest.  They start with June heatwaves, and where these sit in comparison to climatology/normal for the Southwest, and how they differ from the record heat waves seen in the Pacific Northwest.  They transition to a discussion of the early(ish) onset of the monsoon this year, and whether this bodes well for a better monsoon than last year (frankly, this is a low bar to clear).  Finally, they recap their own (forecast) guesses for July and run through the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecast game we are trying out this year. https://monsoonfantasy.arizona.edu/ We plan to do another podcast in mid/late July to see where things stand with the monsoon, but so far, so good (or at least better than last year).

In the May 2021 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss a range of issues related to that most pressing question this time of year - "What's the Monsoon Forecast?!".  They run through the last month of weather, what we might expect from June given historical patterns and extremes, and how much faith we can put in forecasts this time of year (hint, it's tough to make a good monsoon forecast). The podcast wraps with a reminder about the Southwest Monsoon Fantasy Forecast game. We piloted the game last year, and this year there's a new and improved interface and some fun prizes.  Stay tuned to the end of the podcast (or watch this space) for details on the game (how to play, prizes, etc.). 

In the April 2021 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido jump into winter weather and assessments of (drought) conditions.  First, they look back at winter so far and see how it stacks up to recent historical totals. Next, they take a closer look at the relationship between summer and winter precipitation, and the various phase combinations (wet/dry, dry/wet, wet/wet, dry/dry). They turn to some paleoclimate expertise to help them think about these patterns, as well as how drought has been defined (seasonal drought, megadrought, etc.), and how these terms get used in science communication and the media.

In the Mar 2021 edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins and Zack Guido sit down to discuss the winter in the Southwest, and whether it lived up to expectations for a La Niña winter. They also go over streamflow, snowpack, and start a deeper dive into reservoirs, based on a listener question from last month (send in your questions if you have them!). They dabble a bit in the seasonal forecasts and talk about some of the key things they will be watching over the next 3-4 months, namely how fire season evolves, and when we can (reasonably) start looking ahead towards monsoon onset. They wrap up with a brief preview of monsoon-game 2.0, and hint at what we have planned.