Commodity Compass Weekly

Kevin Warsh took the stage at Jackson Hole today — and left little doubt the Fed still believes it has work to do on inflation. Gold tumbled more than 3 percent on the day as the odds of a September rate hike climbed back toward a coin flip. And in the ag space, wheat exploded to a three-year high, posting its biggest weekly gain since 2022.

On Wednesday, with the 30-year yield sitting at a 19-year high, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the government would at least double the size of its long-term debt buybacks from two billion to at least four billion dollars per operation and targeting the 10-to-30-year part of the curve. This happened the same day, Treasury confirmed the national debt had crossed forty trillion dollars for the first time. Yields dropped on the news — and then promptly reversed. Within a day, the 10- and 30-year had erased the entire move and pushed higher than before Bessent spoke, forcing him back in front of the cameras to insist four billion is a floor, not a ceiling, and that yields - quote - "don't reflect the underlying fundamentals." The market's verdict, from a JPMorgan note, was blunt: interventions like this belie the structural challenges and do nothing to address them. Translation — a widening deficit, sticky inflation, and a wave of AI-driven corporate issuance are the real story, and a bigger buyback fixes none of it. For gold, that's about as clean a bull signal as you'll find, and it shows up all over the board.

The market is still working off the summer doldrums — thin, low-conviction trading — and this week's data did little to break the spell. The big commodity story this week was in Washington. On August 7th, the President convened a roundtable of mining executives at the State Department — Rio Tinto, BHP, Freeport, MP Materials among them — and rolled out more than two billion dollars in new critical-mineral deals alongside it. The framing was blunt — cut the dependence on China, and replenish the defense stockpiles drawn down during the Iran conflict. It's the clearest signal yet of just how much public capital is about to hit this space.

The Federal Reserve held rates again this week — and it was the press conference, not the decision, that moved markets, driving long-term Treasury yields to their highest since 2007. Halfway around the world, Japan stepped into the currency market to rescue the yen from a forty-year low, and the Bank of Japan held the line hours later. And with crude back above eighty dollars, the Middle East keeps simmering under all of it.

The escalation in the Middle East did not pause this week — it expanded. Iran and the United States continue to apply military pressure throughout the Gulf, and the Houthis appear to have opened a second front, with activity threatening Saudi shipping lanes in a separate strait. Oil has now posted back-to-back double-digit weekly gains — fifteen and a half percent last week, ten percent this week — taking WTI from the high sixties to above ninety dollars in just two weeks. Brent is within striking distance of one hundred dollars per barrel.

Two macro forces defined the week. Iran and the United States escalated military pressure throughout the Gulf. The ceasefire that markets spent six weeks pricing in showed new cracks, and oil reversed its entire recent descent in a single week. And on Wall Street, the AI momentum trade that powered equities higher through the spring finally hit the summer wall. Rotation out of tech accelerated as summer volume thinned the market’s natural buyers. The physical commodity trade and the financial equity trade moved in opposite directions this week — both driven by the same underlying competition for energy and resources.

This week delivered a stark reminder that the Hormuz saga is not over. Two days of direct US-Iran clashes mid-week threatened to unravel the ceasefire that markets have been pricing in for the past six weeks. Bloomberg reported Thursday that peace talks are continuing despite the hostilities — a U.S. official confirmed negotiations remain active. Oil steadied by Friday and finished the week higher. But the International Energy Agency added important context to the week's volatility: renewed hostilities, the agency warned, risk undermining efforts to rebuild the depleted global oil inventories that have been draining since the crisis began. Even if a deal eventually gets done, the physical damage to supply buffers is cumulative. Every week without a resolution is a week of inventory destruction the market will eventually have to price back in.

It's a short week heading into the Fourth of July weekend and the markets treated it accordingly, with lower volume and decisive price moves driven more by a macro narrative than fresh data. The Iran deal remains unsigned. Supreme Leader Khamenei has not publicly committed. But the cumulative weight of optimism across the past six weeks haspushed WTI down nearly thirty percent from its monthly highs, pricing in a resolution the physical market has not yet confirmed. This week's jobs report added a second macro headwind: payrolls came in below expectations, reinforcinga picture of a U.S. economy that is absorbing the energy shock unevenly — gas prices have come down meaningfully, giving consumers some relief, but the broader labor market is softening.

The dominant force on the board this week didn't come from a commodity market at all — it came from the AI trade, and the doubt that suddenly crept into it.On Tuesday, a wave of selling hit the semiconductor and memory names that have led this market all year. Micron fell double digits, Marvell, Sandisk, and Arm dropped sharply alongside it, and even Nvidia gave up around four percent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq closed down 2.2 percent — its worst session in weeks. And the trigger wasn't a bad earnings report. It was a question: whether the hundreds of billions of dollars in debt-funded AI infrastructure spending is actually going to pay off — and what a more hawkish Federal Reserve does to that math. Following Kevin Warsh's debut, traders have swung from pricing rate cuts a few weeks ago to now pricing the risk of another rate hike by December. The fear gauge popped, money rotated into defensive corners like staples and healthcare, and the tape steadied into midweek.

Kevin Warsh held his first press conference as Chair of the Federal Reserve, and he used the debut to push back against the market's expectation of summer rate cuts. The read coming out of that room was unmistakably hawkish — a Fed in no hurry to ease, signaling that it intends to keep policy tight until it is convinced the inflation fight is finished. The dollar firmed in response, real yields pressed higher, and the rate-sensitive corners of the commodity complex — precious metals first and foremost — took the brunt of it. Gold, silver, and platinum all closed the week lower.

This week brought the most substantive Iran deal developments since the conflict began. Axios, which hasbeen the primary source of White House leak intelligence throughout the Hormuz crisis, published a detailed walkthrough of the MOU text on Thursday night.According to a diplomat from one of the mediating countries, the U.S. and Iran have agreed on language that calls for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen immediately without tolls, with a return to pre-war shipping volumes within 30 days. Iran would receive temporary sanctions waivers allowing it to sell oilfor 60 days, with further relief tied to compliance. The framework would extend the ceasefire for 60 days, during which nuclear negotiations would be held. Four U.S. Air Force C-17 planes departed to Europe on Thursday, positioning fora potential signing ceremony in Geneva. VP Vance may attend.

Friday's May employment report landed above expectations across the board — stronger job creation, a tight unemployment rate, and wage growth that gives the Federal Reserve no reason to move toward rate cuts. The reaction was immediate: yields rose sharply, the dollar strengthened, and equity and commodity markets sold off hard. The Nasdaqdropped more than four and a half percent on the day. Gold fell over three percent. Silver lost more than eight percent in a single session. This is the rate-sensitivity dynamic that has been hiding underneath a surface-level market rally all year.

This week's defining event arrived not from the strait but from the negotiating table. Reports of a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding on a framework for talks set off the mostsignificant single-week oil price decline since this crisis began — WTI broke below one hundred dollars for the first time in weeks and ended the week at $87.76, down more than nine percent. Brent settled at $91.70, down more than eleven percent. The market is pricing in a Hormuz reopening before it has happened. Secretary Rubio played down an imminent deal. President Trump said he would not rush the agreement. The paper price moved on the MOU. The oil in the ground has not moved at all.

Three supertankers carrying an estimated six million barrels of crude transited the Strait of Hormuz this week — cargos bound for Japan and China, the first to move through the strait since the conflict began. Japan, whose crude imports from the Middle East had fallen to their lowest level on record, is now welcoming its first Gulf cargo since the war started. This is not a reopening. Normal Hormuz traffic moves thirteen-plus million barrels per day. Six million barrels across several days is a trickle — notable for the signal it sends, not for the supply relief it provides.

Last week on this show, we talked about the divergence — equities at all-time highs while commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had gone to zero. We called it one of the more remarkable macro contradictions in recent commodity history. This week, the underlying tension finally resolved — and it resolved violently.

The Hormuz crisis entered new territory this week. AIS vessel-tracking data from MarineTraffic confirmed what many had feared was approaching: commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to zero. Not diverted around the Cape of Good Hope. Not delayed. Zero transits in the past twenty-four hours. The strait that normally moves approximately twenty percent of the world’s seaborne oil — along with disproportionately large shares of LNG, petrochemicals, and refined products — has gone completely dark for commercial shipping.

This week, one of the most significant institutional developments of the Hormuz crisis arrived not with a missile strike or a diplomatic announcement — but with a formal letter. On April 28th, the United Arab Emirates announced its withdrawal from OPEC and the broader OPEC-plus alliance, effective today, May 1st. The UAE joined the organization in 1967. It has now left. The country produces roughly three and ahalf million barrels per day and represented approximately twelve percent of OPEC’s total output. The stated reason: a sovereign strategic choice to pursue its own production ambitions free of cartel constraints — a tension that hasbeen building for years but was accelerated by the Hormuz crisis and the UAE’s own experience of being attacked by Iran during the conflict. We’ll have more on what this means for oil markets in the energy section.

The Strait of Hormuz stalemate is now entering its ninth week, and the numbers are becoming staggering. Thirteen million barrels per day remain shut in. Cumulative supply losses have now surpassed six hundred and fifty million barrels — roughly seven days of total global consumption, gone from the market since the conflict began. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard seized two vessels this week, following attacks on three ships in the strait, a sharp escalation that underscored how far the situation is from any practical resolution.

If last week was the ceasefire that wasn’t, this week was the reopening that wasn’t. The U.S. Navy opened the week by announcing a blockade of Iranian ports and mine-clearing operations in the Strait. Oil rebounded sharply — Brent pushed back toward $99 — as the Islamabad talks between U.S. and Iranian officials collapsed midweek and the supply disruption narrative hardened.

This week’s commodity story came in two acts.Act one: Wednesday, April 8th. President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, with Tehran agreeing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as a condition. Act two: the breakdown. The ceasefire began unraveling almost immediately. Pakistan’s Prime Minister announced it covered all fronts including Lebanon — Trump and Netanyahu disagreed publicly. Iran announced tolls of more than one million dollars per ship through the Strait.

This was the week the Iran war moved from a supply shock to something closer to an existential market event. Four things happened, and every one of them lands on Monday. April 6th is shaping up to be one of the more consequential market opens in recent memory.

This week’s commodity story came down to three data points, and none of them were bullish for a resolution. Iran’s IRGC turned back two Chinese-flagged vessels — CSCL Indian Ocean and CSCL Arctic Ocean — owned by China’s state shipping giant, less than 48 hours after Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi publicly promised safe passage to ships from five friendly nations, China among them. That promise lasted two days. Washington postponed — again. President Trump extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on its power plants, pushing the threat out to April 6th. And finally, White House proposals went nowhere.

Commodity markets were driven by one overwhelming reality this week: the Middle East conflict moved from a war narrative to an energy system story. After earlier strikes on Iranian infrastructure, the week was defined by the widening fallout — attacks spread across major oil and gas sites in the Gulf, Iraq declared force majeure on foreign-operated oilfields, and the commercial viability of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz became a daily question rather than a tail risk.

This week, commodity markets traded under the shadow of a single question: what happens if the Strait of Hormuz becomes a battlefield? After last week’s U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, the story shifted from the initial shock to the consequences. Through the week, Iran stepped up threats against shipping lanes in the Gulf while the U.S. and its allies moved additional naval assets into the region, forcing energy markets to constantly reassess the risk of supply disruption.

The commodity complex was thrown into one of the most geopolitically charged environments we’ve seen in years this week. Joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets escalated tensions across the Middle East and immediately forced markets to reprice risk. The Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply normally moves—saw shipping slow dramatically, with insurers pulling coverage and tanker traffic collapsing as the region turned into a conflict zone.

This was a week where volatility wasn’t random — it had a trigger. The release of the Citrini report sent shockwaves through high-multiple tech names, reigniting questions around valuation, liquidity sensitivity, and just how fragile the AI-led equity rally might be. That pressure in growth stocks quickly bled into broader risk sentiment, and by midweek the tape felt defensive rather than euphoric. At the same time, rhetoric toward Iran turned sharply hawkish, with clear U.S. military positioning into the weekend raising the risk premium across global markets. The combination of tech instability and geopolitical escalation created a classic rotation trade — capital moved out of momentum equities and into hard assets. Safe-haven demand in gold and silver built steadily throughout the week, not in a panic spike, but in persistent accumulation.

This week was a headline trader’s market. The Supreme Court’s decision to take up challenges related to presidential tariff authority reintroduced uncertainty around trade policy, and that uncertainty rippled through metals and energy. At the same time, renewed U.S. military movements in the Middle East — including repositioning of naval assets — injected a fresh geopolitical risk premium into crude and safe-haven flows.

This week, commodities traded in a market that was recalibrating fast. U.S. inflation data came in cooler than expected, reinforcing the disinflation trend and sending Treasury yields lower across the curve. That drop in rates, paired with a generally weaker U.S. dollar, created a supportive backdrop for hard assets and rate-sensitive commodities. Broadly speaking, the commodity complex leaned constructive — with precious metals finding a bid and energy stabilizing — even as volatility remained elevated.

This week’s commodity session was driven by whiplash volatility across risk assets, with early-week caution giving way to sharp reversals as traders recalibrated macro expectations into Friday. U.S. labor signals helped set the tone: ADP showed just 22,000 private-sector jobs added in January, well below expectations, while weekly jobless claims jumped more than expected, with snowstorms cited as a major driver — all of it feeding the narrative that the labor market is losing momentum at the margin. That softer growth pulse kept rate expectations lively and pushed markets to trade every data point through the lens of “how soon and how deep” policy easing could get in 2026.

This week was defined by a violent correction in precious metals, with both gold and silver pulling back hard after months of relentless upside, as profit-taking, a stronger U.S. dollar, and shifting rate expectations triggered one of the largest weekly drawdowns we’ve seen this cycle. A major macro headline hanging over markets was the growing buzz that Kevin Warsh is President Trump’s preferred pick for the next Fed Chair — a nomination viewed as more hawkish and more market-discipline focused, which pushed yields higher and cooled some of the easy-money narrative that had fueled metals. At the same time, the U.S. dollar staged a notable rebound, snapping a multi-week slide and creating mechanical pressure across the entire commodity complex.

This week felt like a classic rotation trade: precious metals higher, base metals mixed, and energy chopping around as geopolitics and capital flows drove the tape. Gold and silver caught a strong bid as tensions around Greenland cooled, removing some near-term geopolitical risk but paradoxically pushing investors back into monetary hedges rather than hard-risk assets. Commentary from the World Economic Forum added to that tone, with policymakers openly discussing debt sustainability, de-globalization, and the fragility of sovereign balance sheets — not exactly a backdrop that inspires confidence in fiat assets.

This week’s commodity price action was defined by a dramatic mix of geopolitical risk and shifting macro data that set the tone early — only for sentiment to fade into Friday’s close. Markets opened the week with heightened tensions in Iran, including new confrontations and sanctions headlines that briefly lifted energy and safe-haven commodities on fears of supply disruption in the Middle East. That geopolitical risk premium was amplified by mixed macro data out of the U.S. — where inflation readings showed persistent stickiness even as jobs data remained softer than expected — leaving traders conflicted about the path for policy and growth.

This week commodity markets were dominated by a mix of geopolitical risk, macroeconomic signals, and shifting expectations about inflation and growth. Oil prices were especially reactive to unfolding events in Venezuela, where U.S. intervention and moves to potentially redirect Venezuelan oil exports into global markets injected volatility into crude benchmarks. At the same time, U.S. economic data — notably weaker-than-expected jobs figures — reinforced that labor market momentum has slowed, tempering inflation pressures and complicating Federal Reserve policy expectations for 2026. Support for Commodity Compass comes from TerraHutton.

Commodity markets were genuinely mixed this week as a new batch of U.S. economic data exposed growing discrepancies in inflation signals, complicating expectations for monetary policy in 2026. While headline CPI and PPI continued to cool, components tied to shelter, services, and food prices remained sticky—keeping real-asset investors cautious rather than aggressive. Markets also reacted to renewed headlines around Venezuelan oil flows, as U.S. officials signaled flexibility on enforcement amid broader energy-security concerns, weighing on crude but supporting downstream inflation narratives. The metals were the big outperformers this week, while energy continued to show weakness and agriculture was mixed.

This week’s commodity price action was dominated by central-bank policy and government intervention headlines, starting with the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut rates and resume short-dated Treasury purchases, which markets interpreted as a renewed liquidity backstop. That move initially supported precious metals and energy, but also reinforced concerns that economic momentum is slowing faster than expected. Equity markets turned volatile as investors debated whether the Fed’s actions were pre-emptive easing or a response to deeper stress, triggering broad de-risking that weighed on industrial commodities. The U.S. dollar softened early in the week before stabilizing, creating choppy cross-currents across metals and energy. Adding to the macro mix, the White House floated a new farmer bailout proposal, aimed at offsetting lower crop prices and export uncertainty, which briefly supported some ag sentiment while underscoring stress in the rural economy.

Hopes for a December rate cut from the Federal Reserve (given soft inflation and weak hiring trends) buoyed non-yielding assets, but the broader tone remained cautious as traders weighed soft demand against still-ample supply. The result: demand-sensitive commodities — base metals, energy and industrial minerals — came under pressure, while safe-haven assets saw sporadic bouts of interest.

This week’s macro backdrop was dominated by sharp volatility across global equity markets as investors reacted to mixed economic signals and concerns over the capex spend on the AI buildout. Risk appetite swung day-to-day, with investors unwinding positions in growth-sensitive assets and rotating defensively into cash and short-duration instruments. The recent U.S. government shutdown compounded the instability, raising fresh concerns about delayed data releases, contracting federal spending, and the broader economic drag heading into year-end.

It was a volatile week across global markets as the U.S. government shutdown finally ended, but worries about growth, stretched tech valuations, and policy uncertainty kept investors cautious. Commodities traded defensively ... gold and silver fluctuated on shifting Fed expectations, while platinum, palladium, and copper softened on weak demand signals from China. Matt Geiger of MJG Capital joined the KE Report to discuss the precious metals correction and outlook. In energy, oil edged higher after a Russian export terminal attack, natural gas spiked on cold-weather forecasts, and coal prices rebounded on stronger Chinese and European buying. Agriculture markets saw wild swings following a bearish USDA report, with traders bracing for more volatility into year-end.Click here to listen to all the Clear Commodity podcasts

This week, commodity prices slid broadly as global equity markets de-risked and traders grew cautious about growth prospects. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown — now the longest in history — continued to cloud economic visibility, with consumer sentiment plunging to its lowest levels in years. Private-sector jobs data further whispered caution: the latest surveys showed significant weakness and announced layoffs, amplifying fears of a slowing economy.

The headlines this week were dominated by politics and trade: In Argentina’s mid-term elections, Javier Milei’s party secured a decisive win, boosting market confidence in Argentina’s reform agenda, lifting the peso, and energizing investment-interest in Latin American mining and agricultural export sectors. At the same time, the United States and China announced a trade truce: China agreed to resume large-scale U.S. soybean purchases and to delay expanded rare-earth export controls, while the U.S. offered tariff reprieves in exchange. For commodity markets this cell of events meant a dual-push: agricultural commodities — especially soybeans and grains — received a bid on the promise of eased trade friction, while metals and strategic minerals felt renewed focus on supply-chain geopolitics and investment flows.

The commodity narrative this week shifted from metals volatility to policy and geopolitics in the Americas. Washington moved to quadruple low-tariff beef imports from Argentina to curb grocery inflation, alarming U.S. ranchers and signaling a deeper strategy to pull Argentina out of China’s orbit in soy and critical minerals. At the same time, Beijing advanced new barriers to foreign access in rare earths and battery metals, reinforcing strategic supply-risk themes. Energy sentiment firmed on new U.S. sanctions targeting major Russian producers and fresh talk of refilling the SPR, while livestock markets reeled from the policy shock and grains stayed driven by harvest and export flows.

This week, the dominant headline driving the metals and broader markets was again the escalating U.S.–China battle over rare earth export controls. Beijing unveiled its most aggressive export restrictions yet — expanding the list of controlled elements from seven to twelve, adding rules on processing equipment and forcing exporters to apply for licenses. In Washington, U.S. officials blasted the move as a “global supply-chain power grab,” with Trade Representative Greer calling on China to roll back the curbs. China, in turn, accused the U.S. of stoking panic and distortion, rejecting Washington’s calls to unwind the restrictions. The metals complex had a strong week, until a Friday correction. Energy remained mixed, and grains found a slight rebound.

The dominant narrative pushing commodities this week was the escalating U.S.–China quarrel focused on rare earth export controls. China, citing national security, expanded restrictions on rare earth metals, magnets, and the technology associated with processing and refining, tightening its grip on key materials essential for aerospace, and defense. In response, President Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese imports starting November 1, escalating the trade war and rattling markets already grappling with supply chain risks. 

Markets shrugged off the US government shut down this week. Job and private sector employment data showed a decaying labor market, but investors saw it as more fuel for cheaper capital. As the major boards found new all-time highs this week, precious metals extended their rally as well—gold briefly surged to a new record as concerns about a U.S. government shutdown and sticky inflation elevated safe-haven flows. In base metals, copper caught a bid midweek as lingering supply disruptions—especially from the mudslide and forced outages at Grasberg—reignited deficit fears. All told, the week’s story hinged on diverging trends: energy under pressure from surplus expectations, metals riding supply constraints and safe-haven demand, and commodity subsectors reacting idiosyncratically to evolving fundamentals.

We started the week riding some momentum in oil, but by midweek WTI and Brent gave back gains after a deal to reopen the Kurdish-Iraq pipeline. The demand for precious metals continued throughout the week with gold making new all-time highs, silver closing in on its all-time highs. Both were exceptional, yet were outdone this week by platinum and palladium on percentage moves. On the ag side, grains mostly softened as U.S. harvest pressure mounted.

The Federal Reserve offered its first rate cut since December last week and spurred heavy buying into the precious metals complex later in the week. WTI and Copper and still in their own trading ranges. Harvest in the US kicks off while prices get a bounce.

President Trump also ratcheted up pressure on the Fed Chair to enact a “big rate cut now,” citing weakening producer prices and arguing that inflationary risks are receding. These dovish cues helped push the U.S. dollar lower this week, improving the outlook for commodities whose prices are dollar-sensitive.

Markets began September on edge, with investors highly attuned to U.S. inflation data and momentum toward a possible rate cut. Risk appetite was buoyed by an unexpectedly soft dollar into Friday, as rising expectations that the Federal Reserve could ease policy kept equities buoyant and sought to support commodity prices—particularly gold, which notched its strongest weekly gain in three months.

As the Executive Branch of the US Government continues to put pressure on the FOMC, markets are betting on easier money and lower rates. This pushed gold and silver into higher territory this week. Corn finally some a bounce this week while cattle continued to rise. The oil shale patch is worried about over-supply.

The markets awaited patiently all week for Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole comments on Friday. The dovish tone sent physical markets higher and the US Dollar lower. Cattle hit another new all-time high and we have reason to believe the move is not over.