Confluence Podcasts

It may have taken a back seat among recent news headlines, but there has been a big shakeup within OPEC. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to discuss what this may mean for investors.

In the latest Confluence Mailbag, Bill O'Grady and Mark Keller revisit their long-held forecast that US hegemony is in decline and consider what a return to a multipolar world order could mean for investors, outlining the shifts and surprises that may shape the evolving geopolitical landscape. The discussion examines the underappreciated economic risks of the Iran conflict, the implications of a 100% debt-to-GDP ratio, and the factors that could challenge their bullish commodity outlook, before closing on a cautionary read of narrowing market breadth as a signal that AI momentum may be nearing its peak.

Financial markets appear adjusting to the reality of tariffs. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss what we have learned in the past year and how that impacts investment planning.

Something unusual happened to the price of gold as the Iran war broke out. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler today to discuss what happened and what this might mean for the future.

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the second quarter of 2026, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.

Europe is playing catch up to try to close the AI gap with the United States and China. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss the hurdles and the potential and how investors might profit.

Of what value to investors is a Federal Reserve Board chair who is a consensus builder? Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to tell us why this is important. 

In this month's Confluence Mailbag, Bill O'Grady and Mark Keller examine what Iran's shift to yuan-denominated oil transactions means for the dollar's reserve currency status and why viable alternatives remain elusive. They assess widespread concerns around private credit, weigh the broader economic ramifications of the Iran conflict — including the collapse of just-in-time inventory thinking — and close with a discussion of whether the rotation away from mega-cap growth stocks still has legs.

The world has seen additional evidence this year that the United States is no longer the dominant power it once was. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss how investors can manage this new reality.

The war in Iran is an event that is likely to change for the long term the way corporations manage their supply inventories. Think high instead of just in time. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss why this matters a lot for investors.

As the Strait Of Hormuz remains closed due to the war with Iran, Western nations have only limited tools to try to keep the price of oil in check. One strategy is to release stored oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to discuss how effective this tool might be.

Investors have already experienced dramatic initial volatility, but it appears that the war in Iran may also have significant long-term impacts on the financial markets. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss what these impacts might be.

Bill O’Grady and Mark Keller tackle some pressing market topics, opening with a nuanced look at how the conflict in Iran might unfold and what current market expectations may be overlooking. They discuss the concentration risk embedded in passive investing and how investors can navigate it, before turning to the shifting dynamics and recent headlines in private credit, including their perspective on the implications for BDCs. The episode concludes with a forward‑looking conversation about whether the rise of artificial intelligence could reshape the financial advice industry.

Now is a great time to revisit the Case for Hard Assets, an investment area that’s drawing considerable interest these days. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O’Grady draws on his deep expertise in commodities to explain the asset class and the firm’s Global Hard Assets strategy. He outlines the investment team’s macro-driven decision‑making process, offers insight into the current portfolio, and shares his outlook for the asset class, highlighting the key factors driving renewed appeal for hard assets in today’s market environment.

After the war with Iran began, the dollar recorded its largest weekly advance since November 2024. But another traditional favorite destination for investors seeking safety, long term Treasury bonds, performed very different. In this week's report, Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez asks the question, are long term Treasurys no longer a safe haven? The answer to this question has obvious implications for investment strategies.

The increased supply of dollar-backed stablecoins has the potential for wide-ranging impacts, including support for the dollar and an infusion perhaps of demand for US Treasurys. It also is making US banks nervous. Confluence Advisory Director of Market Strategy Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler to discuss the possibilities and the investment implications.

Younger investors appear to have more influence on the stock market than they used to and there are signs that they are becoming more cautious. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash explores what may be driving this shift and the potential fallout in this week's report. This episode accompanies the written report by the same title, published on March 2, 2026.

The subject this week is China and how the purge of government officials going on inside that country might eventually impact investors. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez lends us his perspective, gained from his many years of experience in both the financial and government sectors. This episode accompanies the written report by the same title, published on February 23, 2026.

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the first quarter of 2026, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.

President Trump has made it obvious he wants a Federal Reserve chair who will push for lower interest rates. Does Kevin Warsh fit the bill? Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Walsh joins Phil Adler to tell us the answer is complicated.

A close look at changes taking place in US foreign policy can be revealing from an investment standpoint. Recent changes have been sharp, but it's natural to question their staying power. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez addresses this and related issues in his latest report today comparing the new US foreign policy versus the old.

Confluence’s first Mailbag Podcast episode of the year is a wide-ranging conversation on geopolitics and evolving market trends. Bill O’Grady and Mark Keller explore whether Latin America could emerge as a key low-cost producer in a deglobalizing world and the resulting investment opportunities. The discussion also covers current US dollar policy and the challenges of currency forecasting, signs of a meaningful market rotation following years of US large cap growth dominance, limitations of LLMs within the broader AI boom, the forces driving the surge in precious metals, and implications of Canada’s new trade deal with China.

Long-term government debt issued by advanced economies seems like a less attractive investment these days for safety conscious investors. In his latest report, Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash calls this "The Erosion of Exorbitant Privilege" for these advanced economies, and Thomas joins Phil Adler to explain why this development has significant implications for investors.

After a year in office, it is becoming a little bit easier to categorize the Trump administration's foreign policy and to build an investment strategy around it. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler today to discuss his latest report titled "Blocs, Spheres, Empires, and Colonies," making the case that America's foreign policy is evolving to a new kind of imperialism.

A new security strategy for the United States delivers a strong message for investors. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to fill investors in.

The enormous investment in data centers to support AI development has carried the S&P 500 index to record highs. The index rose more than 16% last year, but this same investment surge may have created some market risks. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss how long this massive investment may continue and what might happen to the broader economy when it ends.

Bill O’Grady and Mark Keller close out the final episode of the year by examining some key factors shaping markets heading into 2026 — from China’s growing gold purchases and efforts to build an alternative to the dollar system, to what a more dovish Fed could mean for the dollar and bonds. They discuss the risk of earnings disappointment next year, the importance of maintaining investment discipline amid market temptations, and their outlook for hard assets in a world shifting toward a multipolar global order.To have your question answered in a future episode, email: [email protected].

In this episode, members of the Confluence Macroeconomic Team sit down with Phil Adler to assess the geopolitical outlook for 2026. Six big picture trends that are guideposts for Confluence's investment recommendations are discussed including stablecoins, spheres of influence, and data centers. 

Confluence's official 2026 Outlook anticipates a reacceleration of the economy next year and a low risk of recession. Three of the co-authors of the report, Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez, Advisory Director - Market Strategy Bill O'Grady, and Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash, join the podcast to examine the main themes of Confluence's expectations and discuss how investors can utilize an outlook piece such as this to review the big picture: where they've been, what the new year has in store, and how they might prepare for it.

Late arriving economic reports have delivered mixed results on the health of the US economy. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss takeaways for investors.

Social Security has been, over the years, a slowly expanding support prop for the US economy. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss the impact of the Social Security cost of living adjustment for 2026.

The policies of the new Japanese prime minister may provide a boost for Japanese stocks. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to discuss what the election of Sanae Takaichi means for investors.

In this episode, Bill O’Grady and Mark Keller unpack the concept of escalation dominance in the US-China relationship and how societies endure pain. They consider the likelihood and potential depth of recession, examining the trade-offs that arise when the Fed and other policymakers intervene to prevent downturns and identifying areas of malinvestment in today’s markets. Additional topics include the forthcoming Supreme Court ruling on tariff legality and their outlook for gold.Submit your question for a future episode to: [email protected].

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the fourth quarter of 2025, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.

Consumer debt levels are heading higher. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss if this trend threatens to derail the economy and infect the markets.

China's advantage over the United States in key military and economic areas appears to be widening this year. It's possible to see that in the way trade talks have evolved, and that leaves investors with some important choices. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to bring investors up to date.

The surging price of gold and rising stock indices seems to be an unlikely pairing. Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss why this might constitute a pivot point for the markets and for investors.

Why did The US offer a $20 billion bailout to Argentina? Are there clear cut takeaways for investors? Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to tackle these questions.

In this month's Confluence Mailbag, Bill O’Grady, Advisory Director – Market Strategy, and Mark Keller, CEO/CIO, delve into the connection between US dollar weakness and the performance of international and domestic equities. They also share their outlook for recession risks, Fed independence, and Trump's call for publicly traded companies to shift to semiannual rather than quarterly reporting.Submit your question for a future episode to: [email protected]. 

AI related investments have generated impressive results, but a look at how the big tech firms are channeling their current AI expenditures suggests it might be time for investors to put on the brakes at least a little. Confluence Associate Market Analyst and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to discuss why.

Recent events offer new evidence that US influence around the world is diminishing. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler today to discuss the evidence and how investment strategy might adjust to acknowledge this new geopolitical reality. 

With deficits rising, governments may resort to different strategies to help keep interest rates in check. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash examines the landscape for government bonds and the message markets are sending to investors. 

The race for global AI dominance has crucial implications for governments and financial markets. Much like Sputnik, this isn't just about a single technological achievement. Confluence Associate Market Strategist Thomas Wash discusses how the future of the global order is at stake and offers some guidelines for investors.

Your investment in the S&P 500 might not be as diversified as you think. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler to explore the distinctions between investing in cap-weighted and equal-weighted indexes and offer considerations for investors to assess if now might be time to adjust their approach. 

Are tariffs working the way the Trump planned? Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins Phil Adler to focus on the purpose of the Trump tariffs and discuss what investors should pay attention to in the weeks and months ahead.

In our August Mailbag, Bill O’Grady, Advisory Director – Market Strategy, and Mark Keller, CEO/CIO, examine the recent underperformance of small caps and emphasize the importance of focusing on quality companies. They review shifts in Confluence’s asset allocation models amid abrupt policy changes and share key lessons learned. Bill and Mark also consider the outlook for stablecoins, the decline in publicly traded companies, and offer a quick insight on tariffs. Finally, they respond to an intriguing question on mine production and opportunities in hard assets. To submit a question for a future episode, email [email protected]

Can we rely on government statistics to help guide our investment decisions? Confluence Associate Market Strategist and Certified Business Economist Thomas Wash joins the podcast to discuss the recent revisions to Bureau of Labor Statistics data that raised doubts about the economy and prompted the president to fire a top official.

The race between the United States and China for military superiority might be a lot more complicated and worrisome than the headline numbers suggest. Confluence Chief Market Strategist Patrick Fearon-Hernandez joins Phil Adler with an update on US and Chinese defense spending and why it matters for investors.

Are investors right to downplay the risk of recession? It certainly looks like the markets have been acting that way this year. Confluence Advisory Director Bill O'Grady joins Phil Adler on this day in early August to discuss whether we might have less to fear than we traditionally have assumed.

In this episode, Confluence reviews the Asset Allocation rebalance for the third quarter of 2025, featuring a brief economic analysis and insights on asset class and security selection for the firm’s Asset Allocation portfolios. Joining the podcast to recap the rationale for this quarter's changes is Kaisa Stucke, analyst and chair of the Asset Allocation Committee's quarterly investment meetings.