PODCAST · business
Deep Economic Thoughts
by Ivan Illan
Forbes thought leader and bestselling Dummies author, Ivan Illan, shares timely capital markets and economic perspectives for sophisticated investors and financial advisors alike.
Episodes
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Fiscal Dominance & The Unwind of the Risk-Free Rate
In this unscripted episode of Deep Economic Thoughts, Ivan Illán breaks down a structural shift quietly unfolding across global debt markets: the unwind of the traditional "risk-free rate" premise. Despite low equity market volatility and tight credit spreads, sovereign debt issuance across...
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Bankers, Bubbles, and Bag Holders
Wall Street's perfect AI exit strategy. Everyone is screaming "buy" on everything AI and Nvidia-adjacent. But here's what they aren't telling you: The IPO window is wide open for one reason only—to let insiders cash out. In today's episode, we connect the dots between the AI hype machine, the…
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The Mosaic of Insight: Global Expansion, Deep Research & A Challenge to TAMP Users
Recorded from Hong Kong, this episode is a personal reflection on a major milestone: the 2025 expansion of our asset management company from its SEC-regulated base in Los Angeles to a new SFC-regulated entity in Asia. Marking nearly 30 years in investment management (since 1996), this move is a...
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Full-Time vs Part-Time: A Shifting US Employment Picture
In this episode, Ivan Illan, AIF, CFS, Founder & Chief Investment Officer at AWAIM shares the US employment chnages underway. Demographics and changing company financials are driving seismic shifts in how the US labor force experiences employment opportunities. For more research highlights…
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China's Overall Exports Rose 8% In April, Even As Exports To US Fell 21%
Even though Trump's tariffs on China are meant to place pain and pressure on their economy, it appears that China is navigating US tariffs deftly. China's exports to other regions around the world have markedly increased, which has effectively offset the huge exports declines to the US. For more...
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USD Woes: A Historical Perspective on Weak USD & Global Stock Markets
Ivan Illan, Founder & Chief Investment Officer, discusses the historical relationship dynamic demonstrated by a falling US Dollar value and the resulting impact on U.S. and non-U.S. stock markets. Specifically, he focuses on the decade from 2005 to 2015, which was marked by the Great Financial...
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Radio Interview KABC 790AM - March 8, 2025
Ivan Illan, Founder & Chief Investment Officer, AWAIM was a special guest for the full hour on The Bruce Cook Conversation. Ivan discussed all things economics with Bruce. This is the first segment of four from that radio interview. Original air date: March 8, 2025 at 8PM PT. For more…
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CA Senator Josh Newman & Ivan Illan on The Conversation w/ Bruce Cook (Radio Replay)
Founder & CIO at AWAIM, Ivan Illan, joins California Senator Josh Newman on The Conversation with Bruce Cook discussing the condition of California's and the U.S. economy including jobs, deficits, and education. (Original Air Date: October 13, 2024 at 6PM PT on AM830 KLAA) For more information,...
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Same Economic Outcomes Decades Apart: 1970s & 2020s
In preparing for my September 2024 Forbes article, I stumbled upon a shocking set of nearly identical, devastating economic statistics regarding the U.S. economy. Graphs and data referenced in this episode comparing the periods of 1975 to 1980 versus 2019 to 2024 can be found at:...
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Are Stocks Cheap Yet? Refer To The Cyclically Adjusted Earnings Yield For Perspective
As discussed in detail last summer (see Research Highlights and Forbes article), comparing the Earnings Yield on stocks (using the S&P 500 Cyclically Adjusted Earnings Yield [CAEY]) to the Risk-Free Yields on U.S. Treasury Bonds can have an elucidating effect on an investor's favor towards…
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High Yield or Small Caps, Which Market Is Assessing Forward-Looking Risk Better?
In this month's episode, Ivan Illan, Founder & CIO at AWAIM®, explores the dichotomy of two segments of the capital markets - U.S. high yield bonds and U.S. small cap stocks. Both of these segments are predominantly charaterized by below investment grade credit ratings and typically demonstrate...
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Is The A.I. Bubble Bursting?
The past few days have been hard on A.I. stocks, which until now have been driven higher and higher by the widespread A.I. euphoria. In this episode, I discuss a recent Working Paper (published May 2024) from the National Bureau of Economic Research that shares a more modest projection on the...
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Implications For Protracted Yield Curve Inversion
For roughly two years, the U.S. economy has been undermined by a challenging dynamic - a yield curve inversion. Not to be ignored, when short-term interest rates are much higher that long-term interest rates, investor and lender behavior modulates accordingly. If this dynamic persists too long,...
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Buffett Indicator As Applied to Specific Sectors
The Buffett Indicator (or Ratio) is a simple formula often referenced by famed investor Warren Buffett. It's simply, Total U.S. Stock Market Capitalization / U.S. GDP. The idea is basically higher ratios infer overvalued markets, while lower ratios may indicate stocks are broadly undervalued....
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Credit Card Delinquency & Debt Jumps Higher
Ivan Illan, Founder & Chief Investment Officer at AWAIM® shares a conversational-style review of a recent research highlight published on the firm's website discussing U.S. credit card delinquency and other correlated metrics such as household savings, debt levels, and interest rate on credit...
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US Output Gap Is Way Too High
In this episode, Founder & CIO, Ivan Illan discusses the myriad issues around having a significantly positive US Output Gap - an important economic metric that reveals underlying inflationary pressures in an economy. For more information, charts and other details related to this episode, please...
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Guest Appearance on "The Conversation with Bruce Cook" - January 7, 2024
REPLAY: On-Air Live interview of Ivan Illan on AM830 from "The Bruce Cook Conversation" orignally broadcast on Sunday, January 7, 2024 at 6PM PST. Ivan and Bruce chat about various economic issues impacting folks today from interest rates and taxes to debt and the upcoming election. Wide scope of...
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What Risks Are Lurking In 2024?
In this final episode for 2023, bestselling Dummies author, Forbes Finance Council member, Founder & CIO Ivan Illan, shares some preliminary insights as to what may play out during 2024 for both stock and bond markets globally. He highlights the period beginning March 2022, which coincides with…
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REPLAY: Ivan's On-Air Interview - The Conversation with Bruce Cook on KLAA AM830
Original Air Date: Sunday, November 19, 2023 at 6:30PM PST Listen to the replay from the on-air interview of Founder & Chief Investment Officer Ivan Illan conducted by The Conversation's Host Bruce Cook. Ivan returns to the show answering a wide variety of questions about the US economy, upcoming...
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Fed Funds Rate Much Higher For Much Longer
This episode includes references to data shared in Ivan's upcoming Forbes.com article tentatively entitled, "For Decades Fed Funds Remained Higher Than The Inflation Rate, May Be Once Again". Citing nearly 50 years of historical averages regarding the Effective Federal Funds Rate, 30 Year…
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The Paradox of Flattening Yield Curves
A more casual companion piece to Ivan's article published in Forbes on October 19, 2023, entitled "What A Flattening Yield Curve Means For Future Fiscal Fitness" Discussion on the importance of understanding the segment of the yield curve to which an investor has exposure. Also, a review of the...
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Disruptive Technology and Its Economic Impact
In this episode Ivan cites recent PMI declines, while reframing the data that often minimizes the manufacturing sector's share of and relevance to the U.S. economy. A discussion follows on how nominal GDP data is referenced routinely, instead of real GDP. The conclusion is surprising to many…
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US Debt Downgrade Is Not A Big Surprise.
In this episode I talk about the recent US government debt downgrade by Fitch, why it happened, why it's not a big surprise, and what it might mean for everyone going forward. © 2023 Ivan Illan, AWAIM®
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Ivan Illan & Bruce Cook - On-Air Live (Replay)
In this episode, Ivan Illan rejoined Bruce Cook on The Bruce Cook Conversation, which was broadcast live on-air throughout Southern California and live streamed on KLAA AM 830 Angels Radio on Sunday, July 9, 2023 at 6PM PT. As a returning show guest, Ivan offered new perspectives and insights to...
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Bad Breadth
If you're wondering why your investment portfolio seems to be lagging the S&P 500 Index so far this year, it's because the market has bad breadth. Bad (or, in this case meaning, very narrow) market breadth illustrates that only a very few minority of companies are responsible for the majority of...
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Talking Economics With Bruce Cook
Yesterday (Mother's Day), I returned as a half-hour guest on Bruce Cook Conversations on AM830 Angels Radio. This podcast contains the full interview replay which was broadcast live throughout Southern California on Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 6:30PM PT. Topics covered included Bruce's rapid fire...
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There Are Only Two Ways To Destroy Capital
Don't be alarmed by the harse tone of this episode. A contractionary phase in the monetary cycle is a difficult and challenging one for labor, real estate, and capital markets. After years of expanding the monetary base, which had led to misallocations of inexpensive capital, those funds must be...
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Where's the Risk?!
Remember that ad campiagn in the 1980's, "Where's the Beef?!"... In this episode, Ivan exclaims, "Where's the Risk?!", in reference to the seemingly non-existent level of risk in the lower-end spectrum of investment grade bonds. Referencing data shared in AWAIM's latest research highlight, Ivan...
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Powell's Pummeling
This episode contains unscripted comments on the perceived burgeoning "banking crisis" and Fed Chair Powell's Congressional testimony that occurred earlier this week. © 2023, Ivan M. Illán
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The Job Growth Conundrum
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported a seemingly phenomenal new jobs figure for January 2023. For the past several months, there have been many hundreds of thousand of new jobs created each month. But looking back over the past year to the types of jobs (part-time versus full-time)...
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Federal Reserve Bank Bankrupt
The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank is technically insolvent (or bankrupt in layman's terms). Of course, as "buyer of last resort", the U.S. Treasury would not allow the Fed to cease operations legally. Instead, the Fed maintains operations in the red (booking losses in the form of a "deferred asset")...
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Higher Interest Rates = Higher Stock Volatility
Get ready for more stock market volatility, as the Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world implement tightening monetary policy.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many episodes does Deep Economic Thoughts have?
Deep Economic Thoughts currently has 32 episodes available on PodParley. New episodes are automatically indexed when they're published to the podcast feed.
What is Deep Economic Thoughts about?
Forbes thought leader and bestselling Dummies author, Ivan Illan, shares timely capital markets and economic perspectives for sophisticated investors and financial advisors alike.
How often does Deep Economic Thoughts release new episodes?
Deep Economic Thoughts has 32 episodes. Check the episode list to see recent publication dates and frequency.
Where can I listen to Deep Economic Thoughts?
You can listen to Deep Economic Thoughts on PodParley by clicking any episode. We provide an embedded audio player for direct listening, and you can also subscribe via your preferred podcast app using the RSS feed.
Who hosts Deep Economic Thoughts?
Deep Economic Thoughts is created and hosted by Ivan Illan.
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