PODCAST · business
Derisky Business
by Center for a New American Security
“Derisky Business” is a show that explores economic security issues within the broader national security and foreign policy landscape. Hosts Emily Kilcrease and Geoffrey Gertz dive into the weeds on issues like export controls, tariffs, and trade, linking these issues to broader debates on how to advance U.S. global economic leadership during times of geopolitical turbulence.Listen for new episodes bi-weekly, and check out other podcasts from the Center for a New American Security at cnas.org/connect/podcasts.This podcast is supported in part by Amazon and by general support to the CNAS Energy, Economics & Security Program.
Episodes
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China’s Broken Economy with Logan Wright
China expert Logan Wright joins Emily and Geoff to talk about China’s broken economy. He explains why the country isn’t going back to high growth rates anytime soon, and what the structural issues driving China’s broken economy mean for U.S. economic and strategic interests. Logan’s new book is a...
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The Trouble with America’s Oil Deal in Venezuela with Francisco Monaldi
Energy expert Francisco Monaldi joins Emily and Geoff to discuss the U.S. government’s unusual oil deal in Venezuela. They get into the decades of missteps and corruption that have hampered Venezuela’s oil sector, the deep seated institutional changes that would be needed to bring production back...
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Whither the Taiwan Sanctions Coalition? with James Crabtree
James Crabtree joins the podcast to discuss the new CNAS report he co-authored with Emily, Whither the Coalition? Assessing the Prospects of a Diverse Sanctions Coalition in Defense of Taiwan. Geoff, Emily, and James discuss the prospects of India, Singapore, and Germany joining the United States...
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The Blind Spot in U.S.-China AI Competition with Paul Haenle and Terah Lyons
Paul Haenle and Terah Lyons of JPMorganChase join Emily and Geoff to talk about their recent report on U.S.-China AI competition and what policymakers miss when they only look at the latest AI model benchmarks. They get into the latest uproar over (yet another) capable Chinese AI model, what U.S....
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The Fortress USMCA Strategy with Meredith Lilly and Amb. Jorge Guajardo
Emily and Geoff talk about the future of the North American trade relationship with Meredith Lilly and Jorge Guajardo. They get into what’s next for USMCA negotiations, why Canada and Mexico would support a Fortress USMCA approach to strengthening economic security alignment across the continent,...
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Is There a Trump Sanctions Doctrine? With Josh Kretman
Josh Kretman, former sanctions official, joins Emily to discuss whether there is a Trump doctrine on sanctions and what that might look like. They take a tour around the world’s sanctions hot spots, unpacking the latest developments on the Venezuela, Iran, and Russia sanctions programs and…
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Are the 301 Tariffs Really About Forced Labor? with Josh Kagan
Josh Kagan joins Emily and Geoff to give the big picture behind recent U.S. tariffs related to forced labor, as well as providing an insider’s view on the future of trade and labor issues. In an area that is often a blind spot for the U.S. national security community, Josh helps explain why labor...
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Europe’s Looming Trade War with China, with Tobias Gehrke
Emily and Geoff sit down with Tobias Gehrke to talk about why Europe is facing a looming trade war with China and how prepared (or not) it is to handle trade wars on multiple fronts. They also get Tobias’s take on how things are faring in the Transatlantic relationship, Europe’s pragmatic…
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How the Private Sector Can Boost U.S.-South Korea Economic Security Cooperation (LIVE)
In a live conversation at CNAS, Emily unpacks a new CNAS report exploring how the private sector can advance economic security cooperation between the U.S. and South Korea. She's joined by Tami Overby, Partner at DGA; James Kim, Director of the Stimson Center's Korea Program; and Eleanor Hume,...
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Stability without Deterrence Doesn't Work, with Sara Schuman
Sara Schuman joins Emily to debrief on the Trump-Xi summit. She explains why it's OK to have a summit that is light on deliverables, describes how China is viewing its relative strength in the relationship, and outlines what she's looking for in the year ahead. Sara recently joined CNAS as an...
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Assistant Secretary Chris Pilkerton on America's Approach to Investment Security
Earlier this week, Emily hosted Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Investment Security Chris Pilkerton for a live discussion at CNAS. Investment security has emerged as a central pillar of U.S. national security and foreign policy, with expanding sets of U.S. and partner government policies...
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The Long Tail of the Hormuz Energy Crisis with Rachel Ziemba
Emily is joined by Rachel Ziemba, CNAS adjunct senior fellow and energy markets expert, to unpack the ongoing energy crisis resulting from the U.S.-Iran military conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. They delve into why stabilizing oil prices will be easier said than done and what the...
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Derisky Business LIVE: One Year Since the "Liberation Day" Tariffs
A year ago, the Trump administration unveiled an ambitious plan to reset the global trading system on a day President Donald Trump dubbed “Liberation Day,” overturning decades of precedent and ushering in a new era of a far more assertive U.S. trade policy. While the long-term effects of the...
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Why Is There No Trade Jail? With Ambassador María Pagán.
María Pagán joins Emily and Geoff for a wide-ranging discussion on the past, present, and future of U.S. trade law and policy. They assess what’s working (and what’s not) at the WTO, the path forward for the Trump administration’s tariff strategy, and what to expect at this week’s WTO ministerial...
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Who Will Make Money on AI? With Paul Scharre
Paul Scharre joins Emily and Geoff to talk about how commercial markets for AI might evolve and how different market outcomes may mean different types of risks for U.S. national security interests. They also get into the ongoing dispute between the Pentagon and Anthropic over who gets to decide…
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Emergency Live Pod: SCOTUS Strikes Down IEEPA Tariffs
In a blow to the Trump administration's trade policy, the Supreme Court ruled that the president cannot use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as a legal basis to impose tariffs. The Trump administration has relied on IEEPA tariffs as a tool of both economic and diplomatic...
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Bonus: Washington’s New China Tech Strategy
This week, we're bringing you an episode from our friends at CSIS's Asia Chessboard Podcast, where Emily joins host Mike Green to unpack how U.S. national security strategy is shaping technology competition with China. They explore why Washington has rolled back certain tariffs and technology...
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Moving On From Free Trade with Mark DiPlacido
Geoff sits down with Mark DiPlacido of American Compass to discuss his recent series of essays, On Balance, that advocates U.S. trade policy should move away from the previous free trade paradigm and instead prioritize balance and reciprocity. They consider the extent to which the Trump...
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Breaking the Rare Earths Dependency with Chris Kennedy
Geoff sits down with Chris Kennedy to unpack the Trump administration’s National Security Strategy and debate what it will take for the United States to overcome its dependency on Chinese rare earths. Chris is a Senior Economist with Bloomberg Economics’ Geoeconomics practice and a new Adjunct...
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What if 'America First' Appears to Work? With Tom Wright
Tom Wright joins to talk about his recent article, “What if 'America First' Appears to Work?" about the Trump administration’s “might makes right” approach to foreign policy, and whether this strategy is more politically viable than perhaps it should be, at least in the short term. Tom is senior...
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BONUS: The Future of IEPPA Tariffs with Francesca Ghiretti
In a bonus episode this week, we're sharing an episode of the great Geoeconomic Competition podcast hosted by Francesca Ghiretti, director of the RAND Europe China Initiative and a research leader at RAND Europe. Geoff was a recent guest on the podcast to discuss Trump's tariffs and the future of...
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The Real Impact of SCOTUS's Tariff Hearing with Kathleen Claussen
Kathleen Claussen, Professor of Law at Georgetown University, joins Emily and Geoff to discuss the SCOTUS case on Trump's tariffs. They share their insights from the recent SCOTUS hearing, explore possible outcomes of the case, and lay out how the Trump administration will likely respond if some…
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What's an Economic Security Agreement and Why Does the U.S. Need Them? With Peter Harrell
Derisky Business is returning for season 2! After a brief hiatus in which obviously nothing (nothing!) notable happened in the world of trade and economic security, Emily and Geoff are back to dive into all your favorite economic security topics. In their first episode back, they are joined by...
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Selling H20 Chips to China Will Come at a Cost, with Liza Tobin
We interrupt our summer break to provide quick reactions to news this week that the Trump administration will begin allowing Nvidia and AMD to sell certain advanced semiconductors to China - so long as those companies agree to pay a commission fee to the U.S. government. While Emily is on…
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Game Over? How the United States Could Have Won the Trade Wars
Emily and Geoff break their summer hiatus to launch a new CNAS report detailing insights from a trade wargame that examined how foreign governments might respond to a dramatic increase in U.S. tariffs. For this live event they are joined by trade experts Wendy Cutler, Meredith Lilly, and Thorsten...
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Happy Summer from Derisky Business!
While Derisky Business goes on summer break, revisit your favorite episodes of the podcast and dive into the Summer Reading List, featuring book recommendations from previous podcast guests and work from CNAS experts. Emily and Geoff will be back in the fall to catch up on all the economic…
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Richard Nephew on the U.S. military strikes on Iran’s nuclear program
Richard Nephew, expert on sanctions and Iran’s nuclear program, joins Emily and Geoff to discuss the long history of U.S. policy towards Iran, the role of sanctions in constraining Iran’s nuclear program, and why the United States decided to proceed with military strikes on Iran’s nuclear...
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Tariffs & and the Defense Industrial Base with Becca Wasser, plus what’s new in the U.S.-China trade war
Geoff and Emily debrief on the latest news in the U.S.-China trade talks. Becca Wasser, senior fellow and deputy director of the CNAS defense program, joins to talk about what Trump’s tariffs mean for the defense industrial base.Shownotes: Becca Wasser and Phil Sheers, “From Production Lines to...
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LIVE: Derisky Business at the CNAS 2025 National Security Conference
To celebrate the podcast's one year anniversary, Emily and Geoff break down some big picture questions on how the trade wars are unfolding and the future of the global economic order. Find all sessions and more at conference.cnas.org
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AI Diffusion with Paul Scharre
Paul Scharre, AI expert and CNAS Executive Vice President, joins Geoff and Emily to talk about Trump’s AI dealmaking in the Gulf, the rescission of the Biden-era AI diffusion regulations, and the implications for U.S. national security. Show notes:CNAS Annual Conference Paul Scharre, “The case…
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How Do You Tariff a Movie and Liza Tobin on the Trade War with China
China expert Liza Tobin, managing director at Garnaut Global and new CNAS adjunct senior fellow, joins Emily Kilcrease and Geoffrey Gertz to discuss the ins and outs of the US-China trade war and the longer-term geopolitical stakes of the tech and trade competition. Plus, Emily and Geoff explain...
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Trump's First 100 Days in Trade Policy
Emily and Geoff look back on the first 100 days of Trump’s trade policy, with a focus on how different parts of the U.S. political and economic system are reacting. They get into shifting public opinion on tariffs, congressional debates, market and private sector nervousness, and the courts - all...
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What Just Happened in the Trade War + Getting Yippy with Richard Fontaine
While Geoff is on travel, CNAS CEO Richard Fontaine joins Emily to unpack the latest trade war developments, including why President Trump paused his reciprocal tariffs and what might come next. Show notes: Ana Swanson, “Want to Play a Game? Global Trade War Is the New Washington Pastime”, New…
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BONUS: How Europe Could React to Trump's Tariffs
This week, we have a special episode in our feed from our fellow CNAS podcast Brussels Sprouts, hosted by Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend of the Transatlantic Security Program. On this episode, recorded on April 3, Andrea and Jim are joined by Dan Mullaney and Tobias Gehrke to discuss how...
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Trump’s Liberation Day Tariffs + Gaming How a Trade War Ends
Emily and Geoff are recuperating from a busy Liberation Day of new tariff announcements. On this week’s episode, they break down what new tariffs the President announced, raise some questions about how this sweeping new tariff regime will actually be implemented, and discuss what a recent CNAS...
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What Tariffs to Expect When You’re Expecting Liberation Day
Emily and Geoff catch up on the Trump administration’s first big action on China tech competition, before digesting this week’s big tariff news (on autos) and looking ahead to next week’s big tariff news - what President Trump has called “Liberation Day”. Notes: White House, America First Trade...
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“Chokepoints” with Edward Fishman
Emily and Geoff are joined by CNAS Adjunct Senior Fellow Eddie Fishman to discuss his new best-selling book Chokepoints, on how America has weaponized the global economy. They share economic war stories about U.S. actions against Iran, China, and Russia, and Eddie explains why his advice for the...
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No Way to Wage a Trade War with Peter Harrell and JP Morgan's Joyce Chang
On a live episode of Derisky Business, Emily and Geoff sit down with Peter Harrell, former White House Senior Director for International Economics, and Joyce Chang, Global Chair of Research with JP Morgan's Commercial and Investment Bank, to analyze the North American trade war, how U.S. trading...
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Canada Reacts to Trump Tariffs with CBC’s Alexander Panetta
Alexander Panetta, Washington correspondent for CBC, the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, joins Geoff and Emily to discuss Canada’s reactions to the latest trade war salvos. He explains Trump’s “reverse Midas touch” when it comes to shaping Canadian public opinion, discusses how the upcoming...
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America First Investment Policy + Europe's Trump Strategy with Agathe Demarais
Emily and Geoff catch up on the America First Investment Policy memo and other news from the last week, before sitting down with Agathe Demarais of the European Council on Foreign Relations to discuss how Europe is responding to Trump and the future of the transatlantic economic security...
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Bruce Andrews on the Geopolitics of Semiconductors
Emily and Geoff quickly debrief on the week’s tariff news, including new 25% levies on steel and aluminum imports, before chatting all things semiconductors with Bruce Andrews, who until recently served as Intel’s chief government affairs officer. (Note: This episode was recorded Wednesday…
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O Canada! Making Sense of Last Weekend's Tariffs
Emily and Geoff digest this past weekend’s on-again, off-again 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as the 10% tariffs on China (that at least for now are still here), and debate what these tariff dramas mean for the Trump team’s longer-term ambitions to restructure the global economic…
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Colombia Tariffs, Banning Chinese Drones, and Stacie Pettyjohn on Drone Warfare
Emily and Geoff play a quick round of Tariff Tarot to dissect Trump’s tariff threats on Colombia last weekend. Then they dig in to the bipartisan debate over banning various connected products, including drones, from China, and explain why this may be one area of continuity between the Biden and...
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America First Trade Policy and Trump's First 100 Days
Emily and Geoff dive in on the unfinished business Trump is inheriting and unpack what we learned from the America First Trade Policy executive memo. Plus we share a few thoughts on how to get the economic security agenda started on the right track, based on our contributions to a new CNAS report...
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Biden’s Big Bet to Control AI Diffusion with Paul Scharre
AI expert Paul Scharre, executive vice president and director of studies at the Center for a New American Security, joins Emily and Geoff to dig into the Biden Administration’s latest export controls on advanced semiconductors and AI plus the prospects for building a global regime to control AI...
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Commerce's Role in Economic Security with Deputy Secretary Don Graves
Deputy Secretary Don Graves joins Emily to talk about the national security mission of the Department of Commerce and to unveil Commerce’s national security strategy. Read the strategy: “The Decisive Decade: Advancing National Security at the Department of Commerce”
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Taking Trump’s Tariffs Threats Seriously
Join Emily and Geoff to catch up on a whole bunch of economic security news, including the ill fated Nippon Steel / U.S. Steel deal, new chips export controls, and TikTik’s bad day in court. Plus, introducing ‘Tariff Tarot,’ a segment to help you make sense of all the tariff proposals and threats...
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Trump’s Treasury and Commerce nominations + Nippon Steel’s bid for U.S. Steel
Emily and Geoff react to the nominations of Scott Bessent for U.S. Treasury Secretary and Howard Lutnick for U.S. Commerce Secretary and overall point man for trade and tariffs. Then Evan Robinson-Johnson, business reporter from the Pittsburgh Post Gazette, joins to talk about the national…
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Trump 2.0's Economic Security Agenda
Emily and Geoff switch from obsessing over the election to obsessing over the transition. They dig into what a Trump 2.0 presidency will mean for tariffs, sanctions, export controls, and technology competition - and how the rest of the world might respond.
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BONUS: Outbound Investment Rule
The Biden administration released its final rule on regulating outbound U.S. investments going into sensitive tech sectors in China. Emily and Geoff dig into the rule, along with what to expect next from Congress and international partners. Check out prior CNAS work on outbound investment: Joint...
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ABOUT THIS SHOW
“Derisky Business” is a show that explores economic security issues within the broader national security and foreign policy landscape. Hosts Emily Kilcrease and Geoffrey Gertz dive into the weeds on issues like export controls, tariffs, and trade, linking these issues to broader debates on how to advance U.S. global economic leadership during times of geopolitical turbulence.Listen for new episodes bi-weekly, and check out other podcasts from the Center for a New American Security at cnas.org/connect/podcasts.This podcast is supported in part by Amazon and by general support to the CNAS Energy, Economics & Security Program.
HOSTED BY
Center for a New American Security
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many episodes does Derisky Business have?
Derisky Business currently has 65 episodes available on PodParley. New episodes are automatically indexed when they're published to the podcast feed.
What is Derisky Business about?
“Derisky Business” is a show that explores economic security issues within the broader national security and foreign policy landscape. Hosts Emily Kilcrease and Geoffrey Gertz dive into the weeds on issues like export controls, tariffs, and trade, linking these issues to broader debates on how to...
How often does Derisky Business release new episodes?
Derisky Business has 65 episodes. Check the episode list to see recent publication dates and frequency.
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Who hosts Derisky Business?
Derisky Business is created and hosted by Center for a New American Security.
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