Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. As expected, it was another volatile week, as global shares dipped on Friday after U.S. and Iranian negotiators called off peace talks. This came after the U.S. … Continue reading "Higher For Longer Spooks Markets, As Iran Peace Wobbles…"

A recent Redbrige poll revealed that while a majority of Australians think migration has been too high for decades, regardless of who’s in power, the main concern people have at the moment is to quote “Cost of living — number one, number two, number three, number four and number five.” And closely tied to that … Continue reading "The Migration Mess: Lies, Damned Lies And Statistics…"

Yesterday we had the outcome of the Feds Policy meeting, and the press conference with newly minted Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh at the helm. It was a typically slick performance from Warsh, setting the stage for the wider overhaul of the institution that he had promised before he took the helm, but it was … Continue reading "Fed Concedes Inflation Is Too High; But Gives No Clue As To Remedy…"

We had a flood of requests for postcode level analysis ahead of yesterday’s live show: DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Property Pressure Building: A Postcode Deep Dive https://youtu.be/MgwQchIXntg We did not manage to cover them all during the show, so here is another batch. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Details of … Continue reading "Property Pressure Building: A Postcode Deep Dive: Part 2."

In this edit of a live show where we examined the latest from our models and surveys, and examined the trajectory of household finances, and property serviceability using our stress metrics. We used our postcode level data on line, to examine particular locations across the country. We had loads of requests prior to the show, … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Property Pressure Building: A Postcode Deep Dive"

In our latest outing we explore the 10% property price falls which so many are talking about, the rise of One Nation, and the problems with the Government’s approach to the CGT reforms. Edwin highlights the issues with new construction economics and what people thinking about renovations need to take into account. If you are … Continue reading "It’s Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

It clearly looks like the property chickens are coming home to roost, as the financial pressures continue to build on many households, and it looks like the national auction clearance rate, at best a muddy measure of anything, is likely to fall below 50 per cent for the fifth week in a row as the … Continue reading "Property Pressure Building…"

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. It was a positive week, with the US volatility index falling nearly 18% and the MSCI global equities index up1.16% on Friday, while the STOXX 600 in … Continue reading "Markets Moonshot Thanks To SpaceX, AI Bets And The Iran “Deal”"

In today’s Friday chat with journalist Tarric Brooker, we explore the latest data on housing, with some startling trends over time, and link these to productivity and other economic indicators, which suggests the economy is way off track, in terms of real income growth. Spin abounds. You can follow Tarric’s sliders here: https://x.com/AvidCommentator/status/2065327040719700289 What does … Continue reading "Home Truths About The Australian Economy: With Tarric Brooker"

Ask most people, and they will say prices are rising, and rising fast. The latest consumer surveys showed that households across the country expect inflation to bubble higher, and our surveys confirm more are experiencing cash flow stress. In Australia as in many other countries inflation was already trending higher before the Gulf war and … Continue reading "Inflation: Reality Versus Spin, Versus Policy…"

Well, well, in my live show with Chris Bates yesterday we dived into the impact of the budget changes and suggested that with the removal of significant numbers of investors from the playing field, Governments will need to do more to entice (nay bribe) first time buyers into the market to stop prices falling too … Continue reading "“Expect More Support For First Home Buyers”: BINGO!"

In this edit of our live show we examined the property market ructions, caused by the recent budget changes, interest rate rises and political intervention. I was joined by Chris Bates, CEO of Mortgage Brokers Alcove, one of Australia’s most strategically-minded mortgage broking businesses, with offices in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. He’s one of Australia’s … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: The Australian Property Three Body Problem: With Chris Bates"

This week we dive into the latest property price fall projections, and ask some more searching questions about the market dynamics. We also kick around the migration question, in the light of One Nation’s latest poll results. And the rental crisis continues to deepen, thanks to poor policy choices… If you are buying your home … Continue reading "It’s Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

In recent posts I highlighted how the current property dynamics thanks to higher interest rates, and now Labor’s decision to introduce a minimum 30 per cent tax on capital gains from July 2027 and abolish negative gearing has rattled property investors. I also said, from an affordability perspective we do need lower prices, because it … Continue reading "Warning: Property Weakness Ahead Will Have Real World Consequences…"

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. We got a bitter taste at the end of the week, as the NASDAQ Composite fell more than 4 per cent on Friday after May’s US payrolls … Continue reading "Are Markets At A Precarious Tipping-Point?"

The airwaves are full of property doom and gloom. It is interesting to see the narrative turn from property investors had no real impact on home prices, to now, prices will drop. In my earlier show I explained why this is good, despite the horror being expressed by many. And we are getting a spray … Continue reading "Forecasting Home Price Falls Is A Mugs Game… But…"

Coalition housing spokesman Andrew Bragg, said this week. “Clare O’Neil just should have said the truth that everyone knows, that house prices for young people in this country are too high. They’ve been too high for too long and she should have said, ‘Look, house prices are too high’,” he said. “Australians are looking for … Continue reading "Let’s Be Honest. Home Prices Must Fall!"

Funny how no none can agree why prices in Australian property might fall ahead. The Government blames the RBA for rising interest rates, while the RBA says Government policy is a significant factor. Sometimes I just wish they would let the property market be a real market not a public policy plaything. Reserve Bank of … Continue reading "Why The Slowing Housing Market In Australia?"

Well, well, the latest data from the ABS revealed that Australia’s economy decelerated last quarter, missing estimates, thanks to the early impact of higher fuel costs and rising interest rates as well as slowing wages, with modest household and public sector expenditure as well as cyclone disruptions to mining and export activities. There are three … Continue reading "Australia Saved By Data Centres For Now, As Our Luck Runs Dry…"

In this live show we examined the markets as they climb to new highs in many places, driven by strong results, and hopes of a Gulf peace deal. How come traders mostly ignore the inflation risks, and higher bond yields? I will be joined by Damien Klassen, Head of Investments at Walk The World Funds … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: From Bubble To Bubble: Investing Now With Damien Klassen"

In this show, I discuss the latest data with our property insider Edwin Almeida, as we examine the monthly moves across the country, listings and sales, and also the rental story. There are many moving parts, across multiple markets, and the outlook is not certain, but the latest poll on One Nation could potentially have … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

In a classic at first slowly, then with a rush, we are getting more data to confirm the depth of distress and distortion in the Australian property markets as the perfect storm for the two thirds of people who own property, with a mortgage or outright, and the third who from choice or necessity rent … Continue reading "More Signs Of A Broken Property Market!"

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and End in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. Financial markets have become little more than a series of bubbles, with investors jumping from one to the next. We had a bubble in software which morphed … Continue reading "Markets Are Leaping From Bubble To Bubble; Just Don’t Look Down!"

Journalist Tarric Brooker and I dive into the latest economic and political news this Friday, reflecting on the state of play in the Straits of Hormuz, the fall-out from the budget and the misdirection which is implied and discuss the New Zealand Reserve Bank decision this week, which underscores the divergent path of the Australian … Continue reading "In The Battle Of The Old V’s The New World, There Are More Losers Than Winners: With Tarric Brooker"

The New Zealand Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Committee voted to hold the OCR at 2.25 percent. Interestingly the decision was a split vote between holding and hiking. Governor Breman who is Chair of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on-hold vote was the tiebreaker, separating the views of external members and banks staff. The three external … Continue reading "RBNZ Hawkish Rate Hold Spells Higher Rates Ahead… But…"

Last week, Reserve Bank Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter highlighted the danger of rising inflation expectations in remarks to a Bloomberg Forum, saying ” The surge in oil prices is “another inflationary shock that’s coming through not that long after the last one, which was not that long after the one before, so there’s a combination … Continue reading "The Inflation Genie Is Still Out Of The Australian Bottle!"

Let’s face it, the oft quoted Australian Property Prices only go up was always a lie, but the religious belief that prices double every seven to ten years is now in pieces, as more data shows momentum building towards a significant correction. The latest from Cotality’s dwelling values index shows we are building towards a … Continue reading "Now Home Prices Are Sliding, Who Takes The Fall?"

Markets tend to be myopic, focussing on the latest shiny thing, like a magpie, and recently the latest US earnings season was in focus, with more than 90% of S&P 500 companies having reported results, overall first-quarter earnings jumped 29% from a year earlier; but now that is in the rear view mirror, investors are … Continue reading "Bond Macro Warns As Markets Feed On Strong Earnings, For Now…"

The latest data from the ABS showed that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.5 per cent in April, as the number of employed people fell by 19,000 in April, while the number of unemployed people rose by 33,000. Actually, the total number of people employed fell for the first time this year, driven … Continue reading "Australian Unemployment Climbs, As Expected… But…"

The outlook for inflation ahead is getting more concerning, as the lasting impacts of the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, plus the recent budget announcements, and the already higher for longer bond rates merge with the existing pattern of inflation lodged about the RBA’s target range, before this all comes home to roost. Meantime, … Continue reading "The Inflation Picture Darkens, As The Property Market Stalls…"

In this edit of our live show in which we examined the impact of the budget and other economic factors, like the ongoing closure of the Straits of Hormuz, on the Australian Property Market, and the broader economy. Will prices fall? Will the proposed changes drive rents up? To decode the implications I was joined … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Is The Australian 30-year Property Super-cycle Over? With Leith van Onselen"

In our post-budget conversation we look at the potential impacts on the property market, and what may lay ahead. Edwin brings us another insight into how to approach things at the moment, as we delve into the policy changes and join the dots. This is not a budget which will make more property available, despite … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

Richard Wiles from Morgan Stanley after the budget on Tuesday suggested that the Australian 30-year property super-cycle is likely over, with significant impact on Bank valuations because of weakening credit demand. Years ago, Richard and I use to work on the JP Morgan Property reports, which for years were jointly published with DFA, so I … Continue reading "Is The Australian 30-year Property Super-cycle Over?"

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia, and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. While last week AI drove most markets higher, concerns about accelerating inflation surged this week, triggering a spike in global bond yields amid the likelihood of higher-for-longer … Continue reading "Market Roller-coaster Drops On Higher Interest Rate Fears, As AI Bets Fade"

Journalist Tarric Brooker and I catch up for another end of week chat, and dive into the budget, the RBA rate hike, the fallout from recent polls, and the broadening impact of the blockage in the Straits of Hormuz. Tarric brought along his latest charts, you can follow along here: https://x.com/AvidCommentator/status/2055170656778813537 Across the board it … Continue reading "Yet Another Brick In The Wall… With Tarric Brooker"

The ABS this week released their latest data on Lending Indicators which is a quarterly estimate of new borrower-accepted finance commitments for housing, personal and business loans and also the Wage Price Index for March which measures changes in the price of labour, unaffected by compositional shifts in the labour force, hours worked or employee … Continue reading "New Property Loans And Wages Growth Down; It’s All Fine!"

This is my edit of our monthly economic update, with a focus this time on the outcomes from the budget, and its impact on housing. http://www.martinnorth.com/ Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/

This is an edit of a live show where we examined the latest from our surveys and did a deep dive into specific post codes: Contents 27:32 Parkwood 421430:29 Goulburn 258033:43 Coomera 420936:40 Biggera Waters 421539:14 Bayeau Bay 226141:28 Ringwood North 313443:26 Coffs Harbour 245045:09 Nhill 341847:15 Hunters Hill 232351:14 Bella Vista 215353:08 470254:39 346556:06 … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Households Facing Into The Gale: Latest From Our Surveys!"

In our latest show Edwin and I kick the tyres on the upcoming budget, which will be full of announcables, but will it make any difference? We also look at the latest gloom from the property writers and ask what are they missing? And Edwin has some more sage advice about property, and life. Check … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

Australian Property appears to be at a significant turning point, with the realisation that prices can go down, as well as up now becoming a reality. So today we examine some of the latest market dynamics in the light of the upcoming budget on Tuesday, where Treasurer Jim Chalmers said Tuesday’s budget would have a … Continue reading "Red Alert: Property In Turmoil As Government Seeks To Support And Crush At The Same Time!"

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. Markets seem to be in self-reinforcing feedback loop, with the MSCI Global Index up another 2.38% over the past week, while the All Asia Ex Japan rose … Continue reading "The Madness Of Markets Disconnects From Reality!"

After the latest RBA rate rises, and the Gulf War impact, we explore the latest from our household surveys to see the impact of the financial pressures they are facing. We see a rise in mortgage related stress in particular. We also update our scenarios based on the latest from the RBA and explore the … Continue reading "Households, Facing Into The Gale, Grit Their Teeth And Hope!"

Australia is one of the world’s biggest LNG exporters, but according to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), east coast gas supplies could fall well short of demand from 2028, “despite there being sufficient reserves and resources for at least the next decade”. And Australians are exposed to the full international price of gas, … Continue reading "Australia Finally Reserves East Coast Gas … But…"

On Tuesday the RBA lifted the cash rate to a stonking 4.35%, in the third move in three decisions. Those following this channel would have not been surprised, as I have been signalling this for some time. This despite the pressures that many households are under as costs rise, inflation bites and real incomes track … Continue reading "Financial Realities Hit Home After The RBA Rate Hike!"

In this live show we examined the contention between record markets in the US, driven by AI investment and the real impact of the Gulf War. Will the former “Trump” the latter? I was joined by Head of Investments Damien Klassen. We also covered the RBA cash rate decision too! Go to the Walk The … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Will The AI Boom Save The Markets, Despite The War? With Damien Klassen"

This week Edwin, our property insider and I go though the latest data on building approvals, auctions and listing and ask whether the MSM media commentary about potential property price falls makes sense. We also examine the latest issues facing high-rise and approvals ease back, while demand for stand alone property rockets. Edwin also make … Continue reading "Its Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. Perhaps never before has it been so important to delve into the market’s weird behaviour, as traders are now back on the AI hype, following tangible results … Continue reading "The AI Candle Draws The Markets’ Moths, Despite The Economic Disaster Ahead!"

Another outing with journalist Tarric Brooker as week at the clocks counting down to potential disaster as a result of the Gulf War. From oil, to food and more things are likely to deteriorate from here, even if there is some real peace agreement with Iran. We go though some critical slides to underscore the … Continue reading "Slip-Sliding Away; The Clocks Are Ticking: With Tarric Brooker"

The spate of Central Bank meetings this week, with Canada and The Fed done, the Bank of England today and the RBA next week, continues to stress the high-levels of uncertainty relating to monetary policy, thanks to the Gulf Conflict, and the trajectory of energy prices. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned the energy shock … Continue reading "Central Banks Now Have A Perfect Alibi!"

Inflation, which was already about the RBA’s target before the Gulf War spiked up to 4.6 per cent in March driven in part by the Middle East conflict which strangled global oil supply and pushed up petrol prices, and note that the data did not capture the impact of the Albanese government’s halving of the … Continue reading "Annual CPI Inflation: Highest Since September 2023 (And Rising)!"