Digital Finance Analytics (DFA) Blog

The latest from our property insider, Edwin Almeida, as we parse the latest industry commentary on the property market. Are the falls significant and widespread, and will they continue? What can we tell from previous property cycles? If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This … Continue reading "It’s Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

The evidence is gathering that the Australian property market is continuing to wilt, as buyer sentiment remains subdued. And the truth is, we are probably only in the foothills of the property bust so far. This week’s preliminary auction clearance rate was 52.4 per cent across 1421 auctions, according to Cotality research. It’s the third … Continue reading "The Great Australian Property Bust… For How Long?"

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia covering commodities and crypto along the way. Most markets posted weekly losses, dragged down by the widening conflict in the Middle East, concerns over heavy capital spending by major names such as Alphabet and … Continue reading "Markets React To Red Light Warnings from AI, Inflation, Energy Wars and Tariffs!"

In this show I look at post code 2251, (Avoca Beach, Bensville, Copacabana, Davistown, Green Point, Kincumber, Macmasters Beach, Saratoga, Yattalunga) and examine the latest price trends and broader drivers of this area. The 2251 area around Copacabana and Davistown is best understood as a mature, high‑amenity coastal and waterfront cluster with limited capacity for … Continue reading "A Deep Dive On Central Coast Property!"

Today we got the ABS Labour Force data for June 2026 and the strong result cements further the likelihood of another RBA rate hike this year. Traders are now pricing in a 36 per cent chance of higher borrowing costs when the RBA meets next month and are now fully priced for one more increase … Continue reading "The Case For More Rate Hikes Builds As Job Markets Remains (Mostly) Strong!"

One of the critical factors in our core market model is a set of linkages between home price momentum and input factors, such as demand, migration, interest rates, Government incentives, inflation and availability of credit. Each has an influence on the others, and on the trajectory of home prices. But the greatest of these is … Continue reading "Home Price Momentum Crushed By Credit Drought!"

Another deep dive into property dynamics with our insider Edwin Almeida. And check out our live show with Edwin tomorrow as he talks about enhancing property search. https://youtube.com/live/7kWk2lQ6ZRQ If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This is the time you need to have Edwin from … Continue reading "It’s Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

There a couple of terms which can create fear and panic among those looking to buy and sell property. In a hot market, Gazumping is an underhand technique whereby a seller accepts a higher offer from another buyer before contracts are signed and exchanged. The reverse, in a falling or buyers market is Gazundering which … Continue reading "Gazundering Is Back Baby, As Home Prices Fall Further!"

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypo along the way. Share indexes tumbled around the world on Friday, despite strong results reported from the US banks on heavy trading, as heavyweight chip stocks plunged for a third … Continue reading "Brutal Markets Pivot On AI, Chips And Energy; Despite Earnings Hopes!"

We had more data this week, continuing to build out the picture of falling home prices, reaching more suburbs, and taking a deeper dive. For many this is shocking, after all, the belief in the one-way street of property price rises was deeply entrenched. But perhaps this is now changing. For example, the latest Westpac-Melbourne … Continue reading "Can A Housing Downturn Improve Australia’s Productivity?"

During my recent live stream with Damian Klassen from Nucleus Wealth, we touched on Private Credit and the building risks from this opaque form of lending. It provoked a number of our followers to get in touch about these risks, expressing concerns that the risks in this unregulated area of finance could well pose a … Continue reading "The Private Credit Time Bomb…"

The REINZ released their June 2026 data today, showing national conditions remaining cautious while regional differences continuing to shape the overall picture. The New Zealand housing market has become a series of local markets moving at different speeds. Buyers and sellers in one part of the country are having a very different experience from those … Continue reading "New Zealand Property Still Stuck In Cautious Mode!"

In this live show we examined the latest market dynamics, as AI, Chips and Energy pull in different directions, even as we move into a higher inflation results season. I was joined by Damien Klassen, Head of Investments at Nucleus Wealth and Walk The World Funds. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Investing Now: AI, Chips And Energy Puzzles: With Damien Klassen"

This week we explore the panic setting into the property media, and compare it with reality on the ground. Truth is, there is much noise and fury being fired by vested interests, from developers, agents and other parties. Where does truth lay, and what does the data really tell us? Renters are also in the … Continue reading "It’s Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

We are at an interesting inflection point in the Australian property market, with housing affordability perhaps easing just a tad, even as more supply is coming, at a time when interest rates are expected to still go higher. Demand remains quite strong, supported by still strong migration, but the data is still sending conflicting signals … Continue reading "Will “Cheaper” Property Attract More Buyers, Or Will Prices Fall Some More?"

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. Another crazy week on markets as the latest headlines from Iran briefly rippled through oil, Treasury yields and currency markets, reviving all too familiar questions about inflation, … Continue reading "The Markets’ Big Questions On AI, Chips And Energy!"

Once again Australians have been hit by a serious telecommunications outage which started Wednesday morning, at 4:20am triggered Telstra says by a “software issue” when a human was working on their system. Rather opaquely they said that a particular node restarted as work was happening on it, and as it restarted a software glitch was … Continue reading "What Happens When The Digital Prison Faulters?"

Earlier in the week I highlighted that rental stress across Australia reach a eye-watering 75.5% of those who are currently renting, according to my rolling surveys. This means that more than 2.35 million households who are renting have a cash flow problem. It is a national disgrace, and is probably the most symbolic aspect of … Continue reading "The Sheer Pain Of Renting In Australia!"

Specifically, recent energy cost increases could still flow through to consumer prices, Non-tradable inflation remains high, with the risk that administered (i.e. government-set) price inflation could remain strong, Firms could become more sensitive to cost increases against a backdrop of elevated inflation and lift prices in response; Firms might also be inclined to slip through … Continue reading "Kiwis Get Another Rate Hike, Despite Oil Price Falls!"

In this live show we examined the latest from our survey and modelling, as we looked at household finances across post codes to end June 2026. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Details of our one to one service are here: https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/dfa-one-to-one/ Find more at https://digitalfinanceanalytics.com/blog/ where you can subscribe to our … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Australia’s Perfect Housing Storm: Let’s Talk Postcodes"

Property Insider Edwin Almeida and I kick around the latest data on property, and pull back the curtain to reveal what is really going on. Truth is there are many agendas out there, pulling in different directions. From migration, to demand, and from building construction to supply, these factors are part of a bigger puzzle. … Continue reading "It’s Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

In the second show in the current series, we examine the DFA mortgage and rental stress results to the end of June 2026, as pressure on households intensifies. But not all post codes are behaving the same. See the first part on our scenarios here: https://youtu.be/gmK6CiQRIv8 The third part will be our live show on … Continue reading "Australia’s Perfect Housing Storm: Let’s Talk Stress Results"

Markets were once again all over the place through the week, as Wall Street on Thursday put in a mixed finish, as a slide in Tesla and chip stocks countered a soft June jobs report that dented Federal Reserve rate hike expectations. Yet despite the conflicted trading, U.S. stocks ended the holiday-shortened week with gains … Continue reading "Another Topsy-Turvy Week For Markets As Risks Abound"

Today we examine the latest housing price falls data, and with the help of our modelling, look at our price scenarios over the next three years. Further falls are expected, but how deep will they be, and where will they be most significant? This show is the first in a series as we reveal the … Continue reading "Australia’s Perfect Housing Storm: Let’s Talk Scenarios"

Rents are another question, as Rentals continued to be more expensive with basic growth of 0,4% before seasonal adjustments, leading to an annual growth rate of 5.9%, well above wages growth in real terms. Capital city rents have risen by 41.7% or $217 a week over the past 5 years they said. No surprise then … Continue reading "Down, Down (Some) Home Prices Are Down!!"

This is an edit of my live show where we examined the current market, property and household finance dynamics with Investment Management Tony Locantro. Tony offers several financial services, such as investment management, financial planning, stock selection and fundraising. Tony has helped countless investors and organisations with strategic investment strategies over the last two decades. … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Reality, Meet Market Hype: With Tony Locantro"

Tonight we dive into the politics of property, and ask whether people are supporting falling home prices, to aid affordability, or whether the Government is gambling on household forgetting broken promises, before the next election. We discuss whether a “correction” in home prices is truly happening, and how the rental sector is responding. Finally, we … Continue reading "It’s Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

Consider this, if you are a home owner of at least a year or so, in most parts of the country you are sitting on a tidy paper profit, probably facilitated by a big mortgage. Nice. For those who were trying to get into the home ownership for the first time, it has been a … Continue reading "Bye-Bye Home Equity As Prices “Correct”…"

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. It was another complex week on the markets, with the MSCI Global index down 2.07%, while the All Asia Ex Japan was down 5.22%. The European STOXX … Continue reading "Now AI Risks Are Back In Focus, As Markets Bet On Positive Hormuz Outcomes…"

In the latest of our regular Friday afternoon chats, Tarric Brooker – journalist and contributor to Macrobusiness, and I pull apart the latest data on the economy, housing, and energy. Is the interpretation of the information we see on the media channels telling the full story? Tarric’s charts, which you can find here: https://x.com/AvidCommentator/status/2070399743231225892 tells … Continue reading "Is Reality On The Blink, Or Is It Just Your Own Problem? With Tarric Brooker…"

We got a slew of data from the ABS today, covering employment, job vacancies and household spending. We will examine each in turn, but the headline is that with employment stronger than last month, job vacancies still holding up, if slowing, and household’s still spending more (if significantly on things they need to buy paying … Continue reading "More Data, More Risks Of Another Rate Rise!"

We got the latest inflation data from the ABS today, and while the headline rate of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 4.0%, down from 4.2% in the 12 months to April 2026, a quick look revealed a more troubling picture as the so called trimmed mean was 3.6%, up from 3.4% in the 12 … Continue reading "Latest Inflation Says More Rate Hikes Are Needed!"

A belated post this week, but our Property Insider goes all in on the question of what a property crash is, we discuss the Green/Labour agreement on the CGT and our normal in-depth review of the numbers. If you are buying your home in Sydney’s contentious market, you do not need to stand alone. This … Continue reading "It’s Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

In this edit of our live show we examined the latest on Australian Property and the underlying political and economic drivers with Leith van Onslen, Chief Economist and Co-founder of Macrobusiness. Are major falls in value ahead? Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Details of our one to one service are here: … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Australian Property: Biggest Fall In 40 Years? With Leith van Onselen"

I am joined in this show by Robert Barwick, National Chairman; National Research Director; 2025 Senate Candidate for Victoria for the Australian Citizens Party to discuss the current malaise in Australian politics, and why the major parties are failing, as attested by recent poles, and the rise of One Nation. What is going on under … Continue reading "The Major Parties Deserve To Perish: With Robbie Barwick"

In today’s show we examine the latest auction clearance data, which signals a further slowing of the property market, and compare this with other market signals. We also complete our deep dive into specific post codes requested prior to last Tuesday’s live stream, see link here: https://youtu.be/MgwQchIXntg as we pick apart the latest data from … Continue reading "Property Pressure Building… A Postcode Deep Dive: Part 3"

This is our weekly market update, where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. As expected, it was another volatile week, as global shares dipped on Friday after U.S. and Iranian negotiators called off peace talks. This came after the U.S. … Continue reading "Higher For Longer Spooks Markets, As Iran Peace Wobbles…"

A recent Redbrige poll revealed that while a majority of Australians think migration has been too high for decades, regardless of who’s in power, the main concern people have at the moment is to quote “Cost of living — number one, number two, number three, number four and number five.” And closely tied to that … Continue reading "The Migration Mess: Lies, Damned Lies And Statistics…"

Yesterday we had the outcome of the Feds Policy meeting, and the press conference with newly minted Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh at the helm. It was a typically slick performance from Warsh, setting the stage for the wider overhaul of the institution that he had promised before he took the helm, but it was … Continue reading "Fed Concedes Inflation Is Too High; But Gives No Clue As To Remedy…"

We had a flood of requests for postcode level analysis ahead of yesterday’s live show: DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Property Pressure Building: A Postcode Deep Dive https://youtu.be/MgwQchIXntg We did not manage to cover them all during the show, so here is another batch. Go to the Walk The World Universe at https://walktheworld.com.au/ Details of … Continue reading "Property Pressure Building: A Postcode Deep Dive: Part 2."

In this edit of a live show where we examined the latest from our models and surveys, and examined the trajectory of household finances, and property serviceability using our stress metrics. We used our postcode level data on line, to examine particular locations across the country. We had loads of requests prior to the show, … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: Property Pressure Building: A Postcode Deep Dive"

In our latest outing we explore the 10% property price falls which so many are talking about, the rise of One Nation, and the problems with the Government’s approach to the CGT reforms. Edwin highlights the issues with new construction economics and what people thinking about renovations need to take into account. If you are … Continue reading "It’s Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

It clearly looks like the property chickens are coming home to roost, as the financial pressures continue to build on many households, and it looks like the national auction clearance rate, at best a muddy measure of anything, is likely to fall below 50 per cent for the fifth week in a row as the … Continue reading "Property Pressure Building…"

This is our weekly market update where we start in the US, cross to Europe and Asia and end in Australia, covering commodities and crypto along the way. It was a positive week, with the US volatility index falling nearly 18% and the MSCI global equities index up1.16% on Friday, while the STOXX 600 in … Continue reading "Markets Moonshot Thanks To SpaceX, AI Bets And The Iran “Deal”"

In today’s Friday chat with journalist Tarric Brooker, we explore the latest data on housing, with some startling trends over time, and link these to productivity and other economic indicators, which suggests the economy is way off track, in terms of real income growth. Spin abounds. You can follow Tarric’s sliders here: https://x.com/AvidCommentator/status/2065327040719700289 What does … Continue reading "Home Truths About The Australian Economy: With Tarric Brooker"

Ask most people, and they will say prices are rising, and rising fast. The latest consumer surveys showed that households across the country expect inflation to bubble higher, and our surveys confirm more are experiencing cash flow stress. In Australia as in many other countries inflation was already trending higher before the Gulf war and … Continue reading "Inflation: Reality Versus Spin, Versus Policy…"

Well, well, in my live show with Chris Bates yesterday we dived into the impact of the budget changes and suggested that with the removal of significant numbers of investors from the playing field, Governments will need to do more to entice (nay bribe) first time buyers into the market to stop prices falling too … Continue reading "“Expect More Support For First Home Buyers”: BINGO!"

In this edit of our live show we examined the property market ructions, caused by the recent budget changes, interest rate rises and political intervention. I was joined by Chris Bates, CEO of Mortgage Brokers Alcove, one of Australia’s most strategically-minded mortgage broking businesses, with offices in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. He’s one of Australia’s … Continue reading "DFA Live Q&A HD Replay: The Australian Property Three Body Problem: With Chris Bates"

This week we dive into the latest property price fall projections, and ask some more searching questions about the market dynamics. We also kick around the migration question, in the light of One Nation’s latest poll results. And the rental crisis continues to deepen, thanks to poor policy choices… If you are buying your home … Continue reading "It’s Edwin’s Monday Evening Property Rant!"

In recent posts I highlighted how the current property dynamics thanks to higher interest rates, and now Labor’s decision to introduce a minimum 30 per cent tax on capital gains from July 2027 and abolish negative gearing has rattled property investors. I also said, from an affordability perspective we do need lower prices, because it … Continue reading "Warning: Property Weakness Ahead Will Have Real World Consequences…"