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Economy Watch — 649 episodes
OPEC wants higher production
US data weakens sharply
Markets sceptical of Warsh's rosy outlook
Hormuz will never be the same
Despite the US-Iran clash, the global economy is resilient
Oil prices hold despite rising Gulf tensions
Hormuz still fragile, but inflation returns as the next big issue
Hormuz reopening to flood world with crude oil
Commodity currencies take it on the chin
Lake Lucerne talks make edgy progress
Trump 'schooled' by Iran in diplomatic negotiation
Oil prices settle to be +12% above conflict-start levels, +25% above early 2026 levels
US Fed eyes rate hikes
Will money solve the US-Iran conflict?
Markets jump to conclusions
Israel strikes Beirut; Iran says no point in talks with the US
David Mahon: China will watch Election 2026 closely
More 'peace' claims for Hormuz, but growth sags, El Niño arrives
Financial markets pricing in quagmire risk
Global export gains impress
Iran extracts Persian Gulf tolls
Market fears of rising inflation push up interest rates
World getting tired of amateur hour
Oil up on Persian Gulf fighting
Gold resurgent at US Treasuries expense
Hot mess & strategic failure
Talks & fights, truce awaits approvals
Mixed messages on Hormuz progress
The US launches new strikes on Iran as talks stall
Markets bet on a resolution
Vanity trumps progress in Hormuz standoff
US-Iran tensions at stalemate
Warsh in the hot seat
Turbulence moves into bond markets
Oil & bond markets jittery on stalled US-Iran 'talks'
A major financial market re-think is underway
Grand welcome, big threats, small deals
Tighter supplies drive price leap in some core commodities
Trump faces stalemate in the Middle East, now with China
The US boxed in by own goals
The Persian Gulf mess festers
US credit card debt leaps
Without any cards, Trump does u-turn
Markets act as though Hormuz is settled
Hot conflict reignited in Persian Gulf
Intense pressure but financial markets still holding
Compounding exposure
Airlines become the canary of the global economy
Fallout from oil price rises spreads
Yes, the Hormuz mess is worse today
Hormuz ceasefire set to expire
US-Iran positions yo-yo
Pressure re-applied as Hormuz chaos returns
Oil supply picture gets more complicated
Trump flails aimlessly in Mid East & with Powell
US policy just gets weirder
Brace for sharp oil pressure
Global outlook darkens
War threats compounded by cyber security threats
Assessing the war scars
US leadership insanity deepens
US service sector cools, inflation heats up
Contrasting national addresses
Searching for an off-ramp
Q1-2025 ends in a mess
War consequences bite harder
Risk aversion rises on more policy corrosion
Trump adventure leaves a global mess
Escalations show off-ramp options fade
Trump backs down on strikes against Iran's power system
Investors face stagflation, reassess returns
Energy shock to be protracted
Fed steady in face of local and global provocations
Middle East attrition going nowhere
Markets discount war risks
A week of global central bank updates
David Cay Johnston: NZ's objective with Trump should be 'to not become the focus of his wrath'
Oil up, equities down, quagmire deeper
Markets ignore official data and actions
Markets bet heavily on the TACO effect
Can politicians cover the Iran crisis cracks?
The consequences of a series of bad choices bedevils the US, and the rest of us
Trump's distraction war causes chaos
Insurers dismiss Trump's promises
War inflation fears spread
The cost of war will hit inflation soon
Safe haven demand to set the tone this week
Mark Laurence: 'Flabbergasted that AI hasn't become a political talking point'
Pressure in the details
Tech takes a beating, bond yields fall
US budget hole set to deeping by trillions
US retail sales stall
Taiwan hits it out of the park
Clear winners - and losers
Imre Speizer: Differing levels of 'assertiveness' between RBNZ & RBA the reason for big cash rate difference
Retreating tech leaves US weaknesses exposed
Risk reactions extreme again
India & the US strike a tariff deal
Uncertainty becomes the new certainty
Steve Symon: Following the money while playing whack-a-mole against the large commercial enterprises of organised crime
Gold price rise hesitates despite rising risk aversion
Inflation pressure raises chances of rate rises
Chaotic US policymaking tests investor nerves
US mess drives precious metals
Eyes on the 'Sell America' trade
Anna Breman: The new RBNZ Governor on inflation, being told off by Winston Peters & more
Investors rush US alternatives
The debasement trade gathers momentum
The rise and rise of risk
Risks rise, but financial markets turn a blind eye
US workers get 80 year low share of their economy
Lots of data, few gains
Trump's Epstein-distraction projects unnerve markets
Powell winning the tussle with Trump, so far
Powell shirt-fronts Trump's cheap tactics
Europe & South America cement trade deal
US chooses trade isolation
The weak USD is driving important realignments
Precious metals lead commodity gains
Risk premiums rise sharply
China to reprise stimulus, but with shifted focus
Gold turns from a risk haven to a speculative play
Eyes on holiday sales impetus
Lower US CPI gets sceptical reviews
The end (of 2025) is near, investors nervous
American weaknesses show up in latest data
Wall Street optimism fades
Breakfast briefing: Hate spreads
US glummer post-Fed, rest of world upbeat
Markets take Fed cut in its stride
Better news but bad decisions
Long bond yields keep on rising
What will the US Fed do this week?
Freight rates on the move up
Breakfast briefing: American SMEs hit hard
The OECD sees large economies slowing
December starts on a negative note
The run into Christmas underway
The final 2025 retail push underway
Local rates and currencies get a reset
American consumer confidence fades and retail sales growth cools
Markets ignore holiday shopping questions
Q3 turning out globally positive
Some good data draws investor scepticism
As risk fear rises, bond markets draw attention
Investor risk aversion rises
Sharp twists & turns in global trade
Affordability pressure has everyone's attention now
Latest updates feature global weaknesses
Moving on, ignoring vital risks
Despite the US funk, the rest of the world gets on with it
US starts to step back from the brink
China data projects economic stability
US belt-tightening takes hold, jitters haunt financial markets
Better on the surface, but wobbly underneath
Risk-off as investors realise they may have overdone it
The US factory sector shrinks at a faster pace
Some countries have an resurgent inflation problem
US-China trade truce cements China's growing strength
Both the Fed, and Trump underwhelm
Concerns about US labour market grow
Betting on short-term positivity
US sanctions Russian oil
Wall Street shifts lower on Washington mess
Wait-and-see as policy messes unresolved
Cautious consumers in China, Albanese wins in Washington
Tough choices ahead
Financial markets gird for bubble risk fallout
US gets faster inflation, but ignored by officials
Powell, Dimon and the IMF sound caution
Wall Street bounces back; gold hits new ATH
Trump's latest double standards rattle financial markets
China regains poise, US stumbles through shutdown
The froth gets frothier
Data downslide, led by the US
Tech & commodities rise without data guardrails
Japan to get its 'Iron Lady"
US descends into chaotic whirlpool
Markets ignoring obvious risks
Markets yet to acknowledge toxic risks
Washington hot mess stunts US
US economic stresses rising
Markets recoil with scepticism
America turns economically brittle on Trump corrosion
US business activity slows
Eye of the storm
Who is foretelling our economic future? the equity or bond market?
The NZD is hammered
A Fed rate cut, but also rising imposed uncertainty
Signaled rate cuts locked in
Markets expect rate cut salve
Inflation up, jobs down. The US Fed has to choose a policy direction
US economic prospects turn darker
Eyes on US CPI for Fed-friendly result
US settles in to accept economic stagnation & isolation
More US data weakness rattles bond markets
Stagflation lurks in the US, deflation lurks in China
Markets gird for weakish US labour market report
US hit with pessimistic data
US returns from holidays in a grumpy mood
Rest of world rises while the US on holiday
US courts doubt Trump had tariff-tax authority
Risk aversion fades, risk taking swells
Good public policy staggers in the face of Trump corruption
US shows symptoms of decline
Chinese investors in bullish mood, US jaded
Guessing that renewed inflation is again 'transitory'
All eyes on Powell's Jackson Hole speech
US inflation risks outweigh labour market concerns
Commodity prices turn soft
Powell coy on US rate shifts
Consumers in both China and the US display fragility
Tariff costs bite US producer prices
Rare drop in bank lending from weak demand
Inflation signals viewed more in hope than reality
Eyes on the RBA
Ignoring the clown-show, watching the numbers
Markets tired and wary of incoherent policy
Rarotonga cooks up huge undersea mining deals
A tale of two markets
Weaker factory orders, lingering high inflation
"Progress" toward economic authoritarianism
Freight volume data shows spreading US weakness
Some big market reactions today
US fiscal situation gets worse
Clumsy dealmaking risks an unravelling phase
Countries work around Trump's flooded zone
More trade deals, just not with the US
US & Japan reach tariff deal, one Japanese investors love
Currency markets reset as tariff taxes bite
US hides behind tariff wall, China rethinks uber-competition
Inflation & tariffs take center stage
Equities rise globally as earnings stay resilient
Bond market steepens yield curves on messy policy
Tariff-tax costs show up in US inflation
China shines again in difficult global reordering
Turning points passed?
Silly season sentiment elevated
The Trump pandemic twists American summer priorities
More tariff own-goals signaled
Risk off as tariff shambles extends
Eyes on the RBA and RBNZ
'Big, beautiful' deficits locked in
Financial markets stay positive while waiting for key signals
US adopting budgetary self-harm
Bond markets await US budget vote
Halfway through a year of little progress
Markets shun the US dollar
Inflation drivers puzzle Americans
US economic performance now lagging most key rivals
Financial markets ignore geopolitical risks
Hot wars, hot weather, cold data
Fed cuts outlook for the US economy
US economy stumbles on weak retail and factory data
Israel Iran conflict seems contained for now
Financial markets add war & protest to their calculus
The greenback weakens on policy chaos
US-China trade deal resolves little
"The harm to living standards could be deep"
Tit-for-tat gives way to negotiation
Economic outlook dims as Trump goes 'purposefully inflammatory'
US equity markets recoil at more instability
The cost of hubris
Global expansion leaks on weakening US
More stagnation everywhere, more inflation in the US
Checking unbridled power
Inflation risks move back to center-stage
Data and sentiment diverge
Wall Street holiday allows reassessments
The turbulent ride continues
Risk premiums keep on rising
Bond market discontent grows louder
Superpower budgets drive irresponsible risks
The messy business of dealing with US mistakes
Recent history less relevant for analysts. It's now all about what is to come
Lots of US data releases, few supporting the Trump agenda
Positives hard to find
As the tempest fades, the net situation is worse
Wall Street soars on US-China tariff reprieve
Progress in Geneva? or just face-saving rhetoric?
Smoke & mirrors
The US Fed warns of rising economic risks
Buckle in for a day of big announcements
Focus turns to the US Fed
Gold drops sharply from its recent highs
The US becomes a drag on the world economy
Dumb policy brings dud results
'Unusual' is putting it mildly
China pushes itself ahead
A Trump tariff backdown coming?
Bessent cheerleading not based on anything
The Trump disaster keeps getting worse
Powell warns of 'challenging scenario'
The tariff war skirmishes get messy
Volatility without guardrails
Even for Trump, this is a weird flip-flop
Wall Street cancels tariff optimism, resumes selloff
Now it's the bond market's turn for pain
"America is lost"
Stagflation chances jump to almost a certainty
Sophomoric stupidity threatens global tailspin
Markets recoil on tariff stupidity
Sweeping tariffs impending, along with retaliation
Bracing for Trump tariffs
Tariffs bring destabilising pressures
As the US enters stagflation, the USD is being sidelined
Tariff impacts start to show up
US policy mistakes pushes everyone onto the defensive
The US keeps on scoring own goals
Tariffs sap the US expansion
Tables turn with China rising as the US fades
Not so happy
Central banks stand back on looming trade chaos
Bigger bumps in the road
Eyes on China & American economic policymakers
US & China weaknesses self-inflicted
Equities drop on strong risk-aversion market moves
Inflation holds but tariff costs yet to hit
The Americans & Russians disrupt trade
Wall Street votes, and it isn't for Trump
The policy landscape is in ferment
The US goes into reverse
Making a messy situation messier
Chaos has consequences
Gears crunched in downshift global direction
US tariffs bring higher prices, slower growth
More debt to solve China's challenges
Risk appetite in sharp reversal
US fades both at home and abroad
Risk aversion jumps on Trump missteps
Hints of a stagflation future noticed by financial markets
American instability takes another turn
David Mahon: China, a country 'full of DeepSeeks,' now sees NZ as 'a country of diplomatic infidelity'
Back on inflation alert
What will the RBA do?
China borrows like there's no tomorrow
Waiting for US tariffs
The US gets its expected inflation twist
Powell in no hurry to cut rates, defying Trump
It is clearer that tariffs will drive a new global inflation surge
US chaos, global data softness, not helping
Economic shine dulls
Retaliatory counterpunches come in many forms
No-one likes Trump's awful tariff deal, even in the US, so backtracking starts
Sharp policy changes without thinking things through
Consumer resilience powers the 2024 US growth
Fed set to end rate cutting cycle
Markets start to reassess risk in the face of policy without ethics
China loses steam ahead of holidays; Wall Street loses steam today
China holiday & US Fed decision dominate global economy this week
Forced distortions a new economic threat
The bond market doesn't like what it sees
The US gifts China global opportunities
Trump 2 starts with bluster and reneging
All hail the Chief Grifter
Rate cut revival in the US, dashed in Australia
Markets celebrate US inflation no-change
No end to the rise in long term benchmark rates
China's exports get a Trump bump
No-one knows which way inflation is heading in 2025
China & Japan see fortunes diverge
The cost of long term debt is rising
US economy outshining all others
Service sector rise might herald inflation's return
Hard to see 2025 much different to 2024
Fear & uncertainty to the fore as 2024 ends
Markets start pricing in higher risk premiums
China to turn economists into propagandists
Eyeing 2025 nervously
Nicola Willis: Growing the economy without spending
Trump creates a hot mess
The US Fed cuts policy rate for third time
Commodities ease as China de-risking builds
Bad policy comes with big costs
A huge week of new data awaits us
Cutting costs and raising prices
Inflation fears ease globally
China's rescue plan gets few ticks
China readies more aggressive stimulus
Trade uncertainty rises
Supply chain pressures under scrutiny
Services underpin global expansion
WMP saves the day
Rising new orders help the global factory sector
Of ruts, twists, stalls & downgrades
RBA independence in election sacrifice
US consumers still driving the global expansion
Old man revives old grievances
Global benchmark interest rates stop rising
The US & India drive global demand
Power & corruption highlighted
Banking stress rises in China and the EU
Dairy prices rise as China's milk production falls
Gold, oil, benchmark bond interest rates and bitcoin all rise
Rate cut prospects fading?
Oil demand falls, supply rising
US inflation progress stalls in October
Markets hesitate with US inflation return feared
China stimulus fizzes
China's turnaround not in evidence yet
Trump's win may have killed off more rate cuts
The Red Center delivers a morally bankrupt America
Investors turn 'risk-on' as good data flows everywhere
Factories globally subdued for a fourth straight month
The news other than the US election
The US expansion pushes on, carrying the world's trade flows
US economy powers ahead led by consumer confidence
China lines up massive fiscal bazooka
Soft economic data everywhere but company results stay strong
Game lost, prepare to adapt
Central bank rates fall, but financial market rates rise
US election risks rise & with them, trade risks
Financial markets signal risk-off until the US election
Key under-achieving data from the world's two biggest economies
AI generated podcast test
Beijing struggles to convince markets it is in control
Current data lackluster, future view positive
China targets tax on offshore investments by their wealthy
No progress yet for China's reinvigoration
Mounting deflation pressure in China
Andrew Coleman: Swapping NZ's gas guzzling Holden government retirement income system for an EV
Eyes on Beijing as more economic policy to be released
China's stimulus rally stumbles
China market fever breaks as Beijing stimulus disappoints
Powerful forces roil China and the US
Away from the fighting hotspots, the global economy is expanding
Markets trade cautiously ahead of US NFPs
Hong Kong stocks go ballistic
Sudden rise in non-economy risks twists economic signals
John Lyon: Why New Zealanders should be grateful insurers remain committed to their country
Q4 starts in a cautious mood
Q4 starts with the US & Japan up, China lagging
US momentum continues, China strives to regain theirs
China's big moves draw small enthusiasm
China to get a sugar hit
Murray Harris: The case for higher KiwiSaver contributions
The major economies separate into two growth blocks
Fed rate cut triggers financial markets
Equities surge after the US Fed rate cut
Market enthusiasm for a big Fed rate cut lacks conviction
Markets await Fed rate cut decision
Will the US Fed "go big"? And the RBNZ follow?
Does Xi really have control of China's economy?
Global markets quite mixed, gold rises
US inflation at 3yr low
Oil prices drop sharply
The EU is warned. Will they listen & act?
Jonathan Shapiro: Why the integrity of bond markets on both sides of the Tasman is at stake
Global activity settles into a more modest expansion
Pierre van Heerden: How it costs twice as much to set up a supermarket in NZ than Australia
Data positive even if that is not the market sentiment
Markets eye US labour market softening
Back from holiday in a negative mood
China's slowdowns accentuate imbalance risks everywhere
World's major economies set for a positive run to the end of 2024
A US$1 tln here, 40 degrees there bookmark global extremes
Where have the children of China gone?
Imre Speizer: What to expect from interest rates and the NZ dollar over coming months
Fickle markets accept a global soft landing has been achieved
August PMIs mostly positive
NZ might benefit from an EU-China dispute
John Small: The 'faster, safer, cheaper' banking experience of the future
The global economy delivers summer gains
Markets bet the Fed has won its battle against inflation
China struggles to manage its downturn
Christian Hawkesby: Accurate GDP forecast would’ve altered May RBNZ policy
The US economy holding up well
Global rate cuts now more certain
China faces strong downward pressures
Stresses in China grow
Chinese consumers put away their wallets
Investor fears ease
Investors pause and modest economic gains filter through
US recession fears overstated, apparently
Global equity markets embark on wild ride lower
Shannon Barlow: Where the power sits in the labour market
Re-thinking financial asset valuations
Equities & bond yields fall in risk-off shift
John Bolton: Who might be attracted to shoebox apartments and why
Two big central banks speak
China foreign direct investment vanishes
Will they or won't they?
US Fed rate cuts closer now
Steven Hail: Transforming the discussion about government fiscal & economic policy
US economy picks up speed in Q2
Wall Street goes into reverse
Commodity prices ease further
Commodity prices sag and takes the NZD with it
Moderate global prosperity unaffected by war, politics, or tech snafus
Last-mile gains in inflation war hard to achieve
Will Carnachan of Aotea Asset Management unpacks the NZ private credit scene
The US 'stars' align for the Fed
The global economy in a "sticky spot"
China stumbles again
Looking at the data
Nick Tuffley: Why did ASB and RBNZ change their mind about rate cuts?
Stephen Jacobi: The US is a riskier trade partner than China
Inflation's pressure eases globally
New trade distortions spread
US economy no longer overheated says Fed
A broad easing of some key commodity prices
Three elections, three rejections of the hard-line, hard right
The hits to global trade keep coming
World's major economies holding up well
Dairy prices drop most in almost a year
More tax cuts flow to Australian workers
Economic prospects hesitate, suggest a shift lower
James Foster - the New Zealand EV, or 'batteries on wheels', scene
Global food stress low
Doubts remain in the US & Canada that inflation is beaten yet
Eyes on some big risks
China's investment momentum slows fast
The northern world swelters
Cameron Bagrie: Why and how the pricing of risk versus the taking of risk by banks needs to change
Some very large global tensions start to boil hotter
Aussie rate cut hopes fade
China loses steam on property drag
Fiona Hall & Martin Dilly: Frustrations with & war stories from the world of anti-money laundering compliance
Data slippage in most major economies
Container freight rates hit 3x last year's level
Fed shifts to one 2024 cut, four in 2025
China-related sentiment downturn deepens
The French gamble
Growth needs productivity gains, IMF says
Rising freight rates makes global trade a tougher challenge
Kylie Walker: What the mission-driven Future Made in Australia approach is & what it could mean
A first major central bank cuts its policy rate
A series of unexpected outcomes
Voters speak, investors nervous
US expansion milder than expected, bond selloff arrested
Financial markets drive interest rates up
Rising yields colour global markets
High rates hurting commercial property funds
China falls in love with 'wealth management products' again
China two-faced? What is says sharply different to what it does
Geof Mortlock: Problems with NZ's depositor compensation scheme & bank failure tools
The US Fed worried about lack of inflation progress
Markets now expecting rate cut signals
Huge Chinese property sector support may not be enough
Shamubeel Eaqub: Why institutional landlords should be better for renters than 'accidental' landlords
Geopolitical issues remain but investors look past them
Investors embrace risk, regulators fret about risk
Markets toy with US rate cuts sooner than Fed has indicated
Surpluses and tax cuts now, deficits later
China readies new stimulus and the copper price zooms higher
China settles in to a blah trend
New jump in global freight rates
Bad policy can do massive long-term damage
Even dour opinions can't knock blossoming data
The global service sector powers on
US labour market growth slows but productivity rises
Economic growth rises despite the challenges
The US Fed comes out less hawkish than feared
Modest global economic growth despite sticky inflation
Of prices, politics and sentiment
Eyes on US jobs, NZ's too
Stagflation sniffs a comeback
Jennifer Wilkins: making the case for degrowth
Factories abuzz in many key countries
Positive anticipation
Extended economic expansion drives up key metal prices
Andrew Dentice: Competition, innovation & societal benefits of open banking
The risks of shorting USTs becomes a global concern
US powers on driving global economy
Powell dials back rate cut expectations
Unexpectedly strong US retail sales shake financial markets
Risks facing the global economy pile up
Barbara Edmonds: Rehabilitating Labour's economic credibility after the cost of living crisis
Markets calm after US CPI bump
US inflation runs higher than expected
Above-average activity, below-average sentiment
The pain of variable rate mortgages
Bond yields rise as rate cut bets fade
All good now but huge unavoidable changes coming
Tim Grafton: 12 years at the coalface of the insurance industry
US inflation goals hampered by labour market expansion
Bond losses weigh on equity markets
Global manufacturing indicators turn positive
The battle against inflation continues, widens
The good global economic news keeps on coming
US economic dominance rolls on
Japan reprises 1990s inflation; Australia reprises 2022 house prices
John Small on the Commerce Commission's recipe to tackle the banking oligopoly
A number of surprises, mostly positive
US Fed still sees three rate cuts in 2024
Patrick Watson: US voters 'living in their own realities' including on the economy
A big week of central bank rate reviews
Unexpected rises push back Fed cut bets
Both China and the EU struggle with their economies
Cameron Murray: The Great Housing Hijack
US inflation proving tough to stamp out
The last bit is the hard bit
China tackles deflation
Central banks get ready to change direction
Benchmark rates fall in anticipation of inflation control gains
Commodity prices generally in retreat
Gold and bitcoin surge. Surprising real-world energy progress
Global factory optimism returns
David Mahon: China's post-Covid hangover, NZ flirting with joining AUKUS & more
Indian economy grows spectacularly
NZ currency and rates get adjusted lower
Pullbacks everywhere
Some markets hover near records, others retreat
Neither foreign investors nor Chinese house buyers like what they see
Nvidia stars in expanding global economy
China imposes new stock market trading rules to prevent falls
Back from holiday to lackluster prospects
Chinese Premier call for measures to 'boost confidence'
Is the Beijing put still active ?
Andrew Bayly: The select committee banking inquiry, Statistics NZ's challenges & more
Global stumbles don't affect the US
Oil price retreats on excess stocks
Reality checks
A warning on bank asset quality
Records, stresses, highs, and weaknesses
Rest of the world doing ok as China stumbles
Global trade no longer at the forefront
Even a China stumble doesn't derail the global expansion
Xi battles economic pessimism at home
Geoff Cooper: Changing the perceptions of infrastructure planning to dynamic from bureaucratic
Fears rise over a commercial property meltdown
Global benchmark interest rates fall
IMF turns optimistic
Dismantling a China giant
China weighed down by debt
The US economy grew by +US$1.4 tln in 2023
Jarrod Kerr: Why the RBNZ should move away from its 'overly hawkish commentary'
China starts rolling out big recovery moves
China readies home team buying support, again
Beijing can't stop a financial exodus
Long good news run extends, but fears linger
Oil up on strong demand projections
China's population and property data stirs deep concerns
Global yields rise
Global economic impulse stutters
Although not beaten, inflation pressures ease broadly
US inflation not beaten yet
Debt, debt, and more debt
World economic growth slows
Inflation retreats, oil prices tumble
China shows strengths & weaknesses; the US its strengths
The Red Sea crisis roils freight rates
Another down day on equity markets
2024 starts with worrying hesitations
China and US still diverging economically
Dairy prices end the year with a rise
Red Sea risks not abating
Rod Oram: The key test ahead now COP28 has agreed to a transition away from fossil fuels
Eyes on retail holiday trade