EIA Report Day

Wednesday, May 13, 2026. EIA Petroleum Report released 10:30 AM ET (week ending May 8). WTI $101-$110 range. Last week $109.76, prior $105.38. Crude inventories (week ending May 1): -2.3M to 457.2M (1% above 5-yr avg). Refinery inputs 16.0 Mbpd, utilization 90.1%. Gasoline -2.5M (below avg), distillate -1.3M (11% below avg). Tight data, strong demand. Henry Hub $2.917, storage 2,205 Bcf (+63 Bcf), +3.5% YoY, +6.7% vs. 5-yr avg. EIA expects $3.10 Q2/Q3. Geopolitical: US-Iran far apart, Trump rejected Iran proposal, Pentagon costs $29B, Strait traffic down 80-90%, Iran threatens 90% uranium enrichment if Project Freedom resumes. Inflection point: deal or escalation. Escalation scenario: crude $120-150, gas $4.50+. Deal scenario: crude $70-80, gas $2.50-2.75. Capital preservation first.