Fantasy Football for Winners

Houston WRs Tank Dell, Jayden Higgins, and Jaylin Noel are “what-if” bargains. Depending on what happens these next few weeks, one or two of them could spike in value.

A comment on my blog has me rethinking the line between brilliance, banality, and luck.

Three weeks ago I walked through why rookie WR De'Zhaun Stribling was in a fantastic landing spot in a room full of injury-prone playmakers. Now things are happening . . .

Last summer I did three podcast episodes on why Ladd McConkey was overvalued and his WR teammates were undervalued. This summer, it’s happening again.

97 retired RBs who entered the NFL these past 30 years were coming off a final college season that accounted for at least 60% of their total college touches. Their average rookie fantasy ranking was 105.

Ever since the Chiefs drafted Emmett Johnson in the fifth round, I’ve been tracking him as a likely bargain. But 30 years of data say otherwise.

Jonathon Brooks finally appears to be healthy and ready to start his NFL career in Year 3. He also happens to be the biggest sell-high dynasty running back.

There are so many reasons to believe Lamar Jackson will bounce back. There are also many reasons to believe we’ve already seen him at his best. That’s the dilemma.

Matthew Stafford made fantasy history last season. His breakout reflects the fantasy market’s growing difficulty assessing QB values.

How much should we bump quarterbacks throwing to two likely top 20 fantasy WRs?

De’Von Achane has dominated as an offensive centerpiece. This year he is expected to be *the* offensive centerpiece. What does that mean for his fantasy outlook?

Falcons rookie WR Zachariah Branch has a clear shot at fantasy relevance. Here’s why managers should lock in on him these next few weeks.

The Saints restructuring Alvin Kamara‘s contract has a huge impact on Kamara’s and Travis Etienne’s fantasy values.

How should we assess Quinshon Judkins’ ADP as a workhorse in a lower-tier offense?

Based on historical data, there’s a high probability that Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason, and/or rookie Demond Claiborne well comfortably outperform ADP expectations. Here’s why . . .

Why Jamison Williams is one of the biggest bargains among the top 30 WRs.

Based on ADP, the fantasy market seems to believe Matthew Stafford will be worse than last year but better than his prior three seasons. It’s a fair assessment, and it’s also deceptively complex for managers seeking value.

There are probably three big reasons why Jacoby Brissett’s ADP is only QB29. Here’s why those three reasons don’t hold water.

If you listen to one podcast episode this summer about a tight end, make it this one.

The fantasy market is ranking Matthew Golden behind Christian Watson and Jayden Reed. Here’s why Golden is the best bargain in that group.

Based on WR data going back to 2012, Terry McLaurin is a high-probability fantasy bust. Let’s break it down . . .

Why Saquon Barkley backup Tank Bigsby is one of the most important RB handcuffs to target in drafts.

Cardinals rookie RB Jeremiyah Love joins a seemingly packed backfield that includes James Conner, Trey Benson, and offseason addition Tyler Allgeier, who might pose the most competition to Love. Should fantasy managers be concerned about Love’s Year 1 ceiling?

49ers rookie WR De'Zhaun Stribling probably will start the preseason as his team’s #4 wideout. Here’s why he’s in a perfect spot to have a fantasy impact in Year 1.

Why rookie breakout candidate Malik Benson is the most important Raiders WR to track this summer.

Bill’s rookie WR Skyler Bell was the 21st WR drafted this year. Here’s why I think Bell will have one of the best fantasy careers out of all of them.

Why rookie Malachi Fields is one of the most undervalued fantasy WRs, and it’s not even close.

If you like numbers, you’ll love these numbers: proof positive that fading tight ends is (on average) one of the best draft decisions a fantasy manager can make.

Yesterday‘s episode walked through the statistical oddity of the durability of last year’s preseason’s top 10 RBs. Today’s episode tackles an inverse oddity with WRs.

From 2012 to 2024, the top 10 preseason RBs missed nearly 20% of their games. Last season it was only 2%. Here’s what it means for 2026.

The fantasy market is ranking Bo Nix and Patrick Mahomes outside the top 12. Here’s what manager should do about it . . .

My research is now available on the Fantasy Football for Winners website. It’s accurate, compelling, and yours for the taking.

One 2025 rushing stat makes David Montgomery a fantasy red flag entering this season.

Last summer featured two notable team quarterback battles, making it tough for managers to know which ones to target. Here’s why you should embrace the battle.

TreVeyon Henderson is ascending. Rhamondre Stevenson has, at best, peaked. So why are their ADPs so close together?

At least three things have to go “right” for Justin Jefferson to justify his generous ADP.

For the third summer since 2020, I’m trying to convince fantasy managers to fade Christian McCaffrey.

Why Seahawks rookie RB Jadarian Price is overvalued in re-draft and especially in dynasty.

If you liked season one, you will hopefully like season two.

Whew. 167 episodes in 167 days. Thank you very much for listening, and thanks to those who’ve messaged me or posted a review. Have a great offseason. See you in July.

Nearly every summer, I scream at the top of my lungs, “Fade this one running back!“ And each time, the running back regresses. It’s not magic. It’s data analytics.

On a podcast episode this summer, I discussed why Caleb Williams might be this year‘s Jared Goff — a big fantasy bargain, thanks in part to an improved offense and coaching staff. Will he take another big step forward in 2026?

If you drafted an elite TE, you earned elite production. If you drafted any other TE, the results were all over the map.

I spent a lot of time this summer podcasting about screaming WR bargains and screaming WR busts. Let’s see how it panned out.

Tried to keep this episode to 12 minutes. But there was too much to discuss, including the fascinating consistency of “dead zone“ RB busts.

Only a handful of 2025 QBs have exceeded preseason expectations based on ADP. How should this shape our draft strategy heading into 2026?

Why should we expect the fantasy market to undervalue Cam Ward, Tyler Shough, and Jaxson Dart next summer?

Designed for Week 17's two late-afternoon (Eastern time) Sunday games, this DraftKings DFS lineup stacks several uber-upside players with a bunch of Raiders. Because the Giants' defense is just that beatable.

Derrick Henry is on pace to finish his career top 10 in carries and top 4 in rushing TDs. In the past 15 years or more, he’s one of only a handful of high-carry RBs who continues to excel into his 30’s.

Justin Jefferson’s 2026 preseason ADP will be one of fantasy’s most fascinating valuations.