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Federal Reserve Transition and Rising Dissent The most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting marked a significant transition point, as it was the final meeting led by Chairman Jerome Powell. While leadership changes at the Fed are not unusual, one unexpected development stands out: Powell will remain on the Board of Governors after stepping down as chairman, an uncommon move that introduces a new dynamic within the institution. This decision raises important questions about influence and governance. Former chairs rarely stay on due to the potential complications of overlapping authority, making Powell’s continued presence noteworthy as the Fed prepares for incoming leadership under Kevin Walsh. Equally significant is the rise in dissent among committee members. Four out of twelve participants opposed the latest decision, bringing the annual dissent rate to approximately 19%, a relatively high figure by historical standards. While markets often interpret dissent as instability, it may instead signal a healthier, more transparent decision-making process. Diverging viewpoints can lead to more rigorous debate and ultimately stronger policy outcomes. In a complex and uncertain economic environment, unanimity may be less realistic, and less desirable, than thoughtful disagreement. Increased openness within the Fed could provide clearer insight into policy direction and improve market understanding over time. Technology Drives a Strong Earnings Season Corporate earnings have taken center stage, delivering a much-needed boost to market confidence. Following a period of geopolitical tension and rising oil prices, recent earnings reports, particularly from the technology sector, have exceeded expectations and helped propel the S&P 500 higher. The scale of growth within technology has been particularly striking. First-quarter earnings for the sector are projected to grow by more than 50%, far outpacing the rest of the index. Even more notable is the upward revision of future expectations, with 2026 earnings estimates increasing by nearly 15 percentage points as companies accelerate capital investments, especially in artificial intelligence. While debate continues around the long-term payoff of AI spending, early indicators suggest these investments are already contributing to stronger earnings. Enhanced productivity and improved margins are reinforcing the sector’s leadership position. If execution remains strong and economic conditions stay supportive, technology companies appear well-positioned to sustain above-average growth. This momentum could continue to play a central role in driving broader market performance and potentially reducing volatility, particularly in historically turbulent election cycles. Economic Stability: GDP and Labor Market Strength The broader economic picture remains steady, with first-quarter real GDP coming in at approximately 2%, aligning with long-term growth targets. After accounting for inflation, this figure reflects a stable and resilient expansion, supported primarily by strong consumer spending. Consumers continue to be the backbone of the economy, representing roughly 70% of total activity. Their consistent spending has offset weaker areas such as housing, which has remained a drag on growth. Meanwhile, components like government spending, trade, and inventories have shown volatility, largely influenced by policy uncertainty and external factors. One of the most compelling data points comes from the labor market. Initial jobless claims recently dropped to 189,000, the lowest level since 1969 on a raw, non-adjusted basis. This milestone underscores the continued strength of employment conditions, one half of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate alongside inflation control. While inflation remains an ongoing challenge, the strength in employment provides a solid foundation for the economy. Markets have responded positively to these signals, though attention remains focused on how external pressures, such as geopolitical tensions and energy prices, may influence future quarters.   Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here   Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Earnings Blowout first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Federal Reserve Leadership in Transition A significant shift is underway at the Federal Reserve, placing unusual attention on both policy decisions and leadership changes. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convenes this week to determine the direction of interest rates, whether to raise, lower, or maintain current levels. While expectations suggest rates will remain unchanged, the real focus lies in the messaging that follows the decision, particularly during the chairman’s press conference, where future policy direction is often clarified. This meeting carries added weight as it is likely the final one led by current Chairman Jerome Powell. A key development is the anticipated confirmation of Kevin Warsh as his successor, following movement in the Senate to advance his nomination. The timing creates a rare overlap in influence, with both Powell and Warsh shaping expectations around monetary policy. This dual presence introduces a degree of uncertainty, as markets interpret signals from both current and incoming leadership. Another point of interest is whether Powell will remain on the Federal Reserve Board after stepping down as chairman. Historically, most departing chairs have chosen to leave entirely, though remaining as a voting member is an option. Such a scenario could create an unconventional dynamic within the Fed’s leadership structure. At the same time, expectations for interest rate cuts have moderated. Many market participants now anticipate a steady rate environment in the near term. As leadership transitions, attention will remain fixed not only on official statements but also on market reactions, particularly movements in the 10-year Treasury yield, which often reflects the market’s true interpretation of policy direction. Market Breadth Signals a Stronger Rally While Federal Reserve policy remains a critical driver of market performance, corporate earnings and profit margins continue to play a foundational role. Alongside these factors, technical indicators offer valuable insight into the sustainability of market trends. One such indicator is the advance-decline line, which measures market breadth by tracking the number of advancing stocks versus declining ones. Unlike price-based indices that can be heavily influenced by large-cap stocks, this metric provides a clearer picture of overall market participation. Recent data shows encouraging signs. The advance-decline line has reached new highs, supported by broad participation across the market. Since the market’s low in late March, a majority of stocks have rebounded from oversold conditions, reinforcing the strength of the current rally. Historically, this type of widespread participation has been a reliable signal of more durable upward trends. The improvement in market breadth suggests that the rally is not narrowly concentrated but instead supported by a healthier underlying structure. While no single indicator is definitive, this development strengthens the case for continued market resilience. Oil Prices and Geopolitical Patterns Geopolitical events, particularly in the Middle East, often bring heightened attention to oil prices and their broader economic impact. Initial reactions to such events typically involve sharp price increases, reinforcing concerns about inflation and rising costs for consumers. However, historical trends reveal a more nuanced pattern. Data tracking oil price behavior before and after geopolitical events shows that prices often begin adjusting well in advance, suggesting that markets may anticipate disruptions before they fully materialize. More notably, the longer-term trend tends to contradict the initial spike. On average, oil prices are approximately 5% lower 65 days after a geopolitical event. Extending the timeline further, prices are typically down around 3% after 250 days, with median figures indicating even steeper declines. These patterns suggest that while short-term volatility is common, sustained increases are less typical. This tendency highlights the importance of maintaining a broader perspective when evaluating energy markets. While immediate price movements capture attention, longer-term trends often reflect stabilization or decline as markets adjust and uncertainties resolve. As geopolitical developments continue to unfold, oil prices remain a key variable to monitor, not only for their direct impact on consumers but also for their influence on inflation and overall economic conditions.   Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here   Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Shaking Up the Fed first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

On this week’s episode of Educational Insights, Trey Booth shares the timeless story of a Chinese farmer to reframe how we interpret today’s headlines and market events. He connects this perspective to modern topics like tariffs, artificial intelligence, and economic uncertainty, illustrating how initial reactions often fail to capture the full picture. In a world driven by rapid news cycles, patience and perspective remain essential disciplines for making sound investment decisions. Watch to learn more. Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Good News, Bad News… We’ll See first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Consumer Liquidity, Market Support, and Federal Reserve Watch As the calendar moves past Tax Day, fresh data provides a clearer view of consumer finances. This year has delivered a notable surge in tax refunds, rising 34% year-over-year heading into mid-April. In total, individual refunds have reached approximately $270 billion, well above last year’s $225 billion and prior years’ levels. This influx of cash offers a meaningful liquidity boost for consumers, helping offset persistent pressures such as elevated energy costs and broader inflationary trends. This added financial cushion comes at a critical time. While oil prices have recently eased from their peaks, they remain relatively high, continuing to strain household budgets. Increased refund activity may therefore serve as a stabilizing force, supporting spending and softening the impact of these external cost pressures. On the market side, recent developments have introduced both volatility and opportunity. A tentative geopolitical ceasefire initially sparked optimism, contributing to a market rally before signs of instability reintroduced uncertainty. Despite this, equities have shown resilience. The S&P 500 has established a higher technical support range, now sitting around 6,800 to 6,900, compared to the previous level, near 6,200. This shift suggests the market may have more room to absorb fluctuations while maintaining its upward trajectory. Attention is also turning toward monetary policy leadership. The United States Senate Banking Committee is set to hold a hearing on the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the Federal Reserve. The process carries potential implications for market stability, particularly given ongoing tensions surrounding current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. A key date to watch is May 16, the target for finalizing the appointment. Delays or disputes could introduce further uncertainty into financial markets. Corporate Profits as the Market’s Anchor Despite the noise surrounding geopolitical tensions, fluctuating interest rate expectations, and valuation concerns, the fundamental driver of market performance remains unchanged: corporate profitability. Over the long term, there has been a strong correlation between profit margins and the trajectory of the S&P 500. Since 2010, corporate profit margins have trended upward significantly, reflecting improved efficiency, pricing power, and economic expansion. This trend continues to serve as a key pillar supporting equity valuations. Current projections suggest that first-quarter profit margins will reach approximately 14.18%, a substantial increase from 9.64% in late 2010 and approaching the record high of 14.45% achieved in the fourth quarter of last year. These elevated margins indicate that companies are maintaining strong earnings power, even amid broader economic uncertainty. As earnings season gains momentum, the focus on profit margins becomes increasingly important. If companies can sustain or even stabilize margins at current levels, the market is likely to retain enough strength to withstand external pressures, from geopolitical instability to shifting monetary policy expectations. While short-term volatility may persist, particularly in response to developments surrounding international conflicts and policy decisions, the underlying health of corporate earnings provides a stabilizing force. In the broader context, it is this earnings strength that will determine whether the market rally can endure.   Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here   Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Will the Market Rally Hold? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

On this week’s episode of Educational Insights, Ashley Page explores a rapidly growing trend of Americans relocating abroad in record numbers and what it could mean for the U.S. economy and financial markets. He breaks down the key drivers behind this shift, including rising domestic costs, the expansion of remote work, and evolving lifestyle priorities, while highlighting the potential long-term impact on economic growth and talent retention. As global mobility becomes more accessible, this perspective offers valuable insight into how shifting population trends may influence future investment and planning decisions. Watch to learn more. Ashley Page, JD, MBA Senior Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ashley Page here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Leaving the U.S. & Why It Matters first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Technology Sector and Market Valuations Recent market volatility has led to increased analysis across key sectors, particularly technology. For several years, there have been concerns that the technology sector was overvalued, raising the risk that a correction could negatively impact the broader market. However, recent market movements have helped reset valuations. Forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for technology stocks have declined significantly, from around 40 to approximately 20, bringing them more in line with the broader market. This shift is important because forward P/E is a key indicator used to assess whether stocks are overvalued or undervalued based on expected future growth rather than past performance. Despite this decline in valuations, earnings growth in the technology sector is still projected to remain strong, with expectations in the mid-teens or higher. This combination of lower valuations and continued earnings growth may attract new investment into the sector. As technology represents a significant portion of the overall market, renewed investor interest could help offset broader market weakness and support overall market stability. Inflation, Energy Prices, and Consumer Impact The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed a notable increase in inflation during March, with a 0.9% rise month over month. A significant portion of this increase, more than three-quarters, was driven by an 11% surge in energy prices. While rising energy costs are impactful, it is important to understand how they affect overall consumer spending. When a larger share of income is allocated to fuel, consumers are often forced to reduce spending in other areas. This concept, known as “demand destruction,” occurs when higher prices in one category lead to decreased demand in others. This trend was evident in the most recent data. Outside of energy, a substantial number of goods within the CPI actually saw price declines, with roughly 40% of tracked items decreasing in price. Additionally, recent credit card spending data shows an overall increase in consumer spending, but a disproportionate share, about 40%, has been directed toward gasoline purchases. While consumers may temporarily absorb these higher costs, particularly with the support of tax refunds, the longer-term effect is reduced flexibility in spending. If elevated energy prices persist, this shift could lead to continued strength in the energy sector while creating weakness in other areas of the economy. Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Supply Risks Ongoing geopolitical developments, particularly involving Iran and the United States, continue to play a critical role in energy markets. While initial expectations suggested a short-term conflict lasting four to six weeks, and some de-escalation has occurred, no permanent agreement has been reached. As a result, attention remains focused on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil supply passes. Control and restrictions in this region have created ongoing uncertainty in oil distribution. Iran has demonstrated its ability to influence the flow of oil through the strait, at times limiting access while allowing selective shipments. Meanwhile, U.S. efforts to impose additional restrictions further complicate the situation. This dynamic creates the potential for reduced oil supply over an extended period. If these constraints persist, oil prices may remain elevated for longer than initially anticipated. This could further contribute to the demand destruction discussed earlier, as consumers and businesses continue to adjust to higher energy costs. The situation remains fluid, and its impact on both energy markets and the broader economy will depend on future geopolitical developments.   Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here   Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Energy Prices and Your Wallet first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

On this week’s episode of Educational Insights, Robert Moody breaks down one of the most important retirement decisions individuals face, which is when to begin claiming Social Security benefits. He walks through the key claiming ages, trade-offs between early and delayed benefits, and strategic considerations like spousal and survivor options that can significantly impact long-term outcomes. As retirement planning becomes more personalized, this perspective provides valuable insight into how individuals can make more informed, confident decisions about their financial future. Watch to learn more. Robert Moody, CFP®, CEPA® Senior Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Robert Moody here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post When to Start Social Security Benefits first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

Policy Uncertainty and Market Performance Uncertainty is often viewed as a negative force in financial markets. Periods of geopolitical tension, unclear government policy, or unexpected global events tend to create volatility and investor anxiety. Today’s environment is no exception, with elevated uncertainty driven by international conflict, trade concerns, and shifting political dynamics. One way to measure this is through policy uncertainty indexes, which track how unclear or unpredictable government actions are at a given time. Historically, major spikes in uncertainty have occurred during events such as the aftermath of 9/11, the COVID-19 pandemic, and recent global trade disruptions. Current readings suggest uncertainty levels are once again elevated, approaching some of those past peaks. However, market behavior during these periods may be more surprising than expected. While markets generally prefer stability, historical data shows that periods of high policy uncertainty have often been followed by strong returns across multiple timeframes, including one month, three months, six months, and even twelve months. This suggests that markets may interpret policy-driven disruptions as temporary rather than structural. In many cases, uncertainty creates opportunity, as investors who remain disciplined can benefit from eventual stabilization and recovery. While past performance never guarantees future results, this trend reinforces the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective during volatile periods. Inflation, Consumer Prices, and What Comes Next Inflation remains one of the most closely watched economic indicators, directly impacting both consumers and investors. Recent economic data has painted a mixed picture, strong in some areas, yet still uncertain in others. The labor market, for example, has shown resilience. Job growth has exceeded expectations, and wage increases have remained steady, indicating underlying economic strength. However, these figures are inherently backward-looking, reflecting conditions that existed before the most recent geopolitical and economic developments. The more pressing question is how rising costs, particularly energy prices, will ripple through the broader economy. Gas prices, often one of the first visible signs of inflation, play a critical role in determining whether higher costs will spread to other goods and services. This dynamic is closely monitored through the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures changes in the price level of a basket of consumer goods and services. The key issue is not just whether prices are rising, but how quickly those increases are being passed on to consumers. Companies may choose to absorb higher costs temporarily, or they may pass them along, impacting inflation readings more directly. The upcoming CPI data will be especially important in determining the trajectory of inflation and, in turn, the direction of interest rates. Policymakers, including the Federal Reserve, will be watching closely as they evaluate whether current pressures are temporary or indicative of a more sustained trend. Seasonality and the Strength of April While uncertainty and inflation dominate headlines, historical market trends offer a more optimistic perspective, particularly when it comes to seasonality. Over the long term, the second quarter of the year has consistently delivered strong performance for equities, ranking just behind the fourth quarter. Within that period, April stands out as one of the most reliable months for market gains. Since 1950, April has been positive approximately 70% of the time for the S&P 500, making it the second-best month of the year historically. This pattern suggests that, despite short-term volatility, markets often find footing during this period. Several factors may contribute to this trend, including the inflow of tax refunds, renewed investor activity following the first quarter, and improving economic visibility as the year progresses. While seasonality alone should never drive investment decisions, it can provide a helpful tailwind when combined with other supportive factors. After a volatile start to the year, these historical patterns offer a measure of cautious optimism. If past trends hold, April and the broader second quarter could provide an opportunity for stabilization and potential growth. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here   Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post History, Please Repeat Yourself first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

On this week’s episode of Educational Insights, Ashley Page highlights the evolving landscape of employer health insurance in 2026, where rising costs are prompting companies to take a more proactive and strategic approach to benefits planning. He explores the key drivers behind these changes, including increased healthcare utilization, innovative treatments like GLP-1 therapies, and advancements in AI, while noting how many organizations are actively evaluating new providers and solutions. As the environment shifts, this perspective offers helpful context for how businesses can adapt and make more informed decisions moving forward. Watch to learn more. Ashley Page, JD, MBA Senior Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ashley Page here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post The Rising Cost of Health Insurance first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

A Strong Tax Season Boosting Consumers As tax season passes its midpoint, a clear shift typically occurs, from early filers receiving refunds to later filers making payments. This year, refund data has been particularly strong, with total refunds nearing $200 billion and running approximately 19% higher than the same period last year. This surge in refunds is more than just a seasonal occurrence; it represents a meaningful injection of liquidity into the economy. In fact, by mid-March, the increase in consumer aid had already reached roughly $20 billion, marking one of the largest non-pandemic-related boosts on record. These funds are playing a key role in supporting consumer spending, especially amid external pressures such as rising energy costs and geopolitical tensions. In the short term, this influx of cash is helping offset inflationary strain. However, the true test will come after the April tax deadline, when this temporary support fades and underlying economic conditions become more apparent. Why the Bull Market Remains Intact Recent market volatility has prompted understandable concerns about whether the current bull market may be nearing its end. However, a deeper analysis suggests that the broader upward trend remains intact. Several key indicators that historically signal a market peak are notably absent. Unlike prior market tops in 2000 and 2007, there is no evidence of excessive investor euphoria. Equity inflows have not reached extreme levels, mergers and acquisitions activity remains moderate, and IPO markets are far from overheated. Additionally, real interest rates are still below levels typically seen before recessions, and corporate earnings revisions continue to trend positively. While fewer stocks are hitting new highs, this slowdown has not yet reached a level that raises significant concern. Taken together, these factors suggest that the current pullback is more likely a short-term fluctuation rather than the beginning of a sustained downturn. Ongoing analysis will be critical in determining whether conditions change in the weeks ahead. The 10-Year Treasury as a Market Signal One of the most important indicators of market health is the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury. This single data point offers insight into borrowing levels, investor demand, and broader economic expectations. A key threshold to watch is the 4.5% level. Historically, when the 10-year yield approaches or exceeds this level, equity markets—particularly the S&P 500—tend to experience downward pressure. This relationship reflects the inverse movement between bond prices and interest rates. Earlier this year, optimism around reduced government borrowing and stronger tax revenues pushed yields below 4% for the first time in over a year. However, recent geopolitical developments, including heightened tensions in the Middle East, have shifted expectations. Projected increases in defense spending, estimated at an additional $200 billion, are expected to expand the federal deficit and lead to higher Treasury issuance. This, in turn, puts upward pressure on yields and downward pressure on bond prices. While the 10-year yield has not yet crossed the critical 4.5% threshold, it has moved higher at a rapid pace. Encouragingly, recent data suggests yields may be stabilizing. Still, this remains a crucial metric to monitor, as it provides a real-time pulse on market sustainability. Greg Powell, CIMA® President and CEO Wealth Consultant Email Greg Powell here Bobby Norman, CFP®, AIF®, CEPA® Managing Director Wealth Consultant Email Bobby Norman here Trey Booth, CFA®, AIF® Chief Investment Officer Wealth Consultant Email Trey Booth here Ty Miller, AIF® Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here   Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post Tax Refunds and Market Risks first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.

On this week’s episode of Educational Insights, Ty Miller explores how newly appointed Federal Reserve chairs are often tested early in their tenure through heightened market volatility and pullbacks. Looking at past leaders from Paul Volcker to Jerome Powell, he highlights a consistent pattern of strong market performance leading up to confirmation, followed by notable corrections shortly after. As a new Fed chair steps into the role amid ongoing economic uncertainty, this historical perspective offers valuable context for what investors might expect in the months ahead. Watch to learn more. Ty Miller Vice President Wealth Consultant Email Ty Miller here Fi Plan Partners is an independent investment firm in Birmingham, AL, with a team of professionals serving clients across the nation through financial planning, wealth management and business consulting. The team at Fi Plan Partners creates strategies in the best interest of their clients using fee based investing. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. A Roth IRA offers tax deferral on any earnings in the account. Qualified withdrawals of earnings from the account are tax-free. Withdrawals of earnings prior to age 59 ½ or prior to the account being opened for 5 years, whichever is later, may result in a 10% IRS penalty tax. Limitations and restrictions may apply. Economic forecasts set forth in this presentation may not develop as predicted. No strategy can ensure success or protect against a loss. Stock investing involves risk including potential loss of principal. Securities and advisory services offered through LPL Financial, Member FINRA/SIPC and a registered investment advisor.The post New Fed Chair – What Lies Ahead? first appeared on Fi Plan Partners.