First Principles with Andy Constan

Andy Constan joins First Principles to explain why record stock prices, rising long-term Treasury yields and sticky inflation can all coexist, and why the next major market risk may come from the financing behind the AI CapEx boom rather than the eventual return on that investment. We discuss Kevin Warsh and Fed balance sheet policy, Treasury issuance and the quarterly refunding announcement, corporate bond and equity supply, Nvidia's $500 billion financing structure, and Andy's "not enough pie" framework for comparing AI earnings expectations with GDP and productivity growth.Andy Constan on Xhttps://x.com/dampedspringDamped Springhttps://dampedspring.com/Damped Spring Substackhttps://substack.com/@dampedspringTopics coveredWhy rising long-term interest rates can be consistent with strong economic growth and record stock pricesWhy Andy does not see higher government interest costs creating an imminent U.S. debt crisisThe "script to kill inflation" and why reducing the wealth effect may require lower stock, bond and asset pricesHow the Fed, Treasury and other policymakers have suppressed long-term interest rates and risk premiumsWhy Kevin Warsh's comments about the Fed balance sheet and letting the bond market "do the work" could signal a policy shiftHow Treasury bill issuance, coupon issuance and the quarterly refunding announcement can affect stocks, bonds and financial conditionsWhy the AI CapEx boom is shifting from cash flow funding toward massive corporate debt and equity issuanceAndy's "hamburger thesis" and why the ability to finance AI infrastructure may matter before anyone knows the ultimate AI ROIWhy capital markets can suddenly close after issuance booms and what that could mean for the AI investment cycleHow Nvidia's $500 billion financing structure expands the pool of capital available to data center projectsThe "not enough pie" problem: why projected corporate earnings may require extraordinary GDP growth, productivity gains or a larger corporate share of the economyWhat Andy watches in new stock and bond deals for signs that investors are becoming unwilling to absorb more supplyTimestamps00:00:08 Why stocks, long-term yields and inflation can all rise together00:07:18 The "script to kill inflation" and why short-term rates may not be enough00:12:48 How policymakers have suppressed long-term interest rates00:16:53 The Warsh "drumbeat" and a possible shift in Fed balance sheet policy00:21:56 Why markets may be underestimating Warsh's willingness to fight inflation00:26:27 Treasury bills versus coupons and the limits of current financing policy00:31:33 The "hamburger thesis" behind the massive AI CapEx funding shift00:38:41 Why AI financing may matter more than AI ROI in the short run00:42:55 Breaking down Nvidia's $500 billion data center financing structure00:47:51 The "not enough pie" problem for AI earnings and economic growth00:52:03 Demographics, productivity and the limits on future GDP growth00:56:14 What issuance prices reveal about capital market stressLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

On the Latest First Principles, Andy Constan explains what the options market is signaling about the AI and semiconductor boom, why he believes earnings expectations have outrun the size of the economy, and where the next risks may emerge. We discuss speculative call buying, single-stock volatility, AI capital spending, consumer dissaving, the Fed put, Kevin Warsh's monetary policy framework, and the looming reset of US tariffs.Andy Constan on Xhttps://x.com/dampedspringDamped Spring Advisorshttps://dampedspring.comTopics covered:Why parabolic moves in AI infrastructure and semiconductor stocks may reflect a speculative bubbleWhat rising single-stock volatility and unusually low market correlations reveal beneath a calm indexWhy out-of-the-money calls became more expensive than puts and what that says about investor positioningHow investors can hedge concentrated stock gains by selling calls and buying protective putsWhy the AI bubble may be hiding in earnings expectations rather than traditional valuation multiplesAndy's economic pie framework and why projected corporate profits may exceed the GDP available to support themHow AI competition, open-source models, job displacement and subsidized token usage affect the return on AI investmentWhy capital spending and consumer dissaving are supporting economic growth, and where those drivers could weakenWhether the Federal Reserve could eventually buy equity ETFs and the inflationary consequences of a permanent Fed putHow lower short-term rates and a smaller Fed balance sheet could rebalance Main Street and Wall StreetWhy expiring Section 122 tariffs could create a near-term shift in inflation, growth and the federal deficitTimestamps:00:02 Why the options market is flashing a warning on AI stocks04:02 Extreme stock dispersion beneath a calm market08:49 The signals of a speculative call-buying frenzy13:00 How to hedge a stock position without calling the top18:36 Why earnings expectations may be the real AI bubble23:00 The economic pie cannot support every company's forecasts27:00 AI job displacement and the widening gap between winners and losers31:59 How capital spending and consumer dissaving are sustaining growth36:00 When the return on AI investment starts to matter40:26 Could the Fed buy stocks in the next financial crisis?44:53 How Kevin Warsh might respond when markets and employment collapse48:58 Lower rates, a smaller balance sheet and wealth inequality52:59 The tariff deadline investors may be overlookingLearn more about the Excess Returns podcast network:https://excessreturns.coNo information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.

In this episode of First Principles, we break down the changing structure of markets as the IPO window reopens, AI CapEx accelerates, and corporate buybacks shift toward new equity supply. We discuss what the SpaceX IPO says about capital markets, whether AI spending can create disinflationary growth, why the consumer is still holding up, and what could challenge the current market bubble.Andy Constan on Xhttps://x.com/dampedspringDamped Springhttps://dampedspring.com/Damped Spring Substackhttps://substack.com/@dampedspringTopics covered:Why IPOs are central to the purpose of public marketsHow Andy evaluates whether the SpaceX IPO workedWhy issuers may want IPOs to trade higher after pricingThe shift from stock buybacks to new equity issuanceWhy AI CapEx is changing the supply and demand for sharesHow hyperscaler spending is being funded through cash, bonds, and stockThe economic test for whether AI investment pays offDisinflationary productivity growth versus labor displacementWhy the current economy is still supported by consumptionThe role of wealth effects and consumer dissavingWhy falling oil prices may not eliminate inflation pressureWhat Andy is watching in Fed policy, tariffs, AI CapEx, and equity issuanceHow Kevin Warsh could approach rates, QT, and the Fed balance sheetTimestamps:00:00 Intro and key themes04:18 How Andy reads the SpaceX IPO08:27 Why underwriters and regulators want IPOs to work13:00 Why issuers may want IPOs to trade higher17:05 From stock buybacks to new equity supply21:06 The 600 to 700 billion dollar shift in share supply26:42 The economic test for AI tokens32:09 Can AI create disinflationary productivity growth?38:10 Is AI CapEx holding up the economy?41:00 Wealth effects, dissaving, and the consumer45:52 Oil prices, war, and inflation49:07 Jalen Brunson, incentives, and long-term value52:00 Fed policy, tariffs, and what matters this summer55:36 Kevin Warsh, QT, and the Fed balance sheet58:42 Closing thoughts

In this episode of First Principles, Andy Constan explains how investors should think about portfolio construction, risk management and alpha during a bubble regime. We discuss why bubbles create FOMO, why low volatility can make investors take the most risk at the worst time, and how long-only and active investors can prepare for the other side without trying to call the top.Andy Constan on Xhttps://x.com/dampedspringDamped Springhttps://dampedspring.com/Main topics covered:Why bubble regimes require a different investor mindsetThe phases of a bubble: change, escalation, parabolic move and popWhy calling something a bubble does not mean calling the topHow FOMO and buyer’s regret lead investors into major mistakesWhy investors should know whether they are more vulnerable to chasing or panickingHow Andy thinks about the market portfolio beyond just stocks and bondsWhy stocks-only portfolios are less diversified than many investors realizeHow low-volatility uptrends cause investors to lever up at the wrong timeWhy rebalancing rules may need to change in a trending bubble marketHow cash, dollar-cost averaging and lump-sum investing should be evaluated through investor behaviorWhy many alpha strategies stop working as well in bubble regimesWhy momentum can work better than mean reversion during bubblesHow contagion spreads after bubbles pop and where future alpha may appearTimestamps:00:00 Why bubble regimes feel low risk00:59 Setting up part two on bubble positioning02:07 The phases of a bubble05:23 Why a bubble regime is different from a normal bull market07:23 How investors should shift their mindset10:29 Why knowing yourself is harder than it sounds14:00 Can a bubble resolve without popping?17:13 Why long-only investing should mean more than stocks24:21 Lowering maximum exposure in a bubble regime30:23 How 60/40 investors should think about rebalancing33:20 Cash, lump sums and dollar-cost averaging42:31 How active investors should adjust alpha strategies46:16 Why mean reversion can fail in bubbles49:41 How contagion spreads through markets54:06 Preparing for post-bubble opportunities without calling the top

First Principles with Andy Constan launches with a deep dive into market bubbles, AI, semiconductor stocks, and the financial conditions that can turn powerful technological change into a dangerous investment regime. Andy explains how bubbles form, why they are almost impossible to time, how today’s AI boom compares to past episodes like 1987, the dot-com bubble, housing, and the bond bubble, and what investors should watch as expectations, financing, and FOMO build.Andy Constan on Xhttps://x.com/dampedspringDamped Spring Advisorshttps://dampedspring.com/Topics covered:Why bubbles are easy to identify in hindsight but nearly impossible to define in real timeThe difference between an expensive market and a true bubble regimeHow new technologies, easy money, regulation, and exogenous shocks can create bubble conditionsWhy AI may rhyme with the internet boom without being an exact repeatThe role of ChatGPT, Microsoft’s OpenAI investment, and semiconductor earnings expectationsWhat the 1987 crash, Japan, housing, bonds, and dot-com bubble can teach investors todayWhy human nature, FOMO, and “keeping up with the Joneses” make bubbles so powerfulHow the late-1990s Fed response to Long-Term Capital Management helped fuel the final phase of the tech bubbleWhy tech’s current size in the economy and market may limit how far the AI boom can growHow AI capex, hyperscaler spending, buybacks, debt issuance, and IPO supply could determine what happens nextTimestamps:00:00 Intro and the challenge of identifying bubbles04:32 Expensive markets vs true bubble regimes09:57 The five bubble episodes Andy compares to today14:35 Root conditions, escalation events, and the peaking phase19:20 Why the 1987 crash may also have been a bubble24:25 The late-1990s setup and the Netscape Navigator moment28:00 Crisis analogs, easy financial conditions, and today’s AI parallels32:20 Long-Term Capital Management and rocket fuel for the tech bubble36:11 Why tech’s market share matters more today than in the 1990s43:18 Policy mistakes, subsidies, and how governments feed bubbles47:42 Semiconductor earnings expectations and valuation risk53:45 The AI capex chain and where the money has to come from58:42 IPOs, corporate debt, and the financing risk behind the AI boom01:02:27 What investors should do differently in a bubble regime