PODCAST · history
General Offensive - General Uprising
by Lynette Nusbacher
Blunt discussions of war and national security from war historian and former intelligence officer Dr Lynette Nusbacher nusbacher.substack.com
Episodes
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Is Claude a Killer?
This isn’t a fiendish AI story. It's a story about masses of compute available to anyone with a standard LLM account. The Houthis make spurious claims that they have operational hypersonic missiles. They would like us all to think they hit Riyadh with one. This Anthropic story from last month…
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Why the US-Russia Diesel Deal Corners Ukraine
Unsolicited LLM Background Brief I’ve been using Google Gemini to produce podcast show notes for my videos, and it’s been interesting. This morning I asked it for show notes for yesterday’s podcast (I recorded and posted in haste), and in the first instance it gave me a brief based on current…
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The Jerusalem Consulate Crisis: Who Is Really Punishing Whom?
The British Consulate-General (BCG) in Jerusalem is one of the few vestiges remaining of the Palestinian Authority’s intent to make Jerusalem its capital. Taking consular services away from British citizens in the Jerusalem area is non-trivial; taking British diplomatic representation to…
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Salami Tactics, Prime Minister
Editing and adding production values slows my workflow down, but I’ve been thinking for a few weeks about the eerie parallels between the first episode of BBC’s Yes Prime Minister from 1986. It’s not just that the Russians are conducting low-level attacks on NATO countries; it’s the comments on…
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Salami Slicing Article 5: Why Russia's War on Europe Has Already Begun
I’ve tried to stay calm about this paper, and mostly failed. Definitely read it, and tell me what you think about its arguments and conclusions.https://understandingwar.org/research/defense-of-europe/the-russian-military-campaign-against-europe-defining-the-threat/ The paper’s introduction:The...
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Frozen in Carbonite: The Anatomy of ‘The Two-State Delusion’
The whole reason to delay recognition of Palestinian statehood, was to build it into the Two State Solution. Arguably, Western recognition of the State of Palestine, creating a failed state ab initio, was a recognition that the future state of peaceful coexistence however cold between Israel and...
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Two Chokepoints Too Many: The Houthi Stranglehold on Global Trade
Maybe it’s a little bit passive-aggressive for me to go on the Socials and note that I’ve been warning about the Houthi threat to global supply chains since April. Maybe it’s just that your Cassandra is weary of watching people walk into unconcealed pitfalls. The constant reassurances from the...
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British Labour’s Gift to Israel’s Far Right
I recorded this podcast today for the MAZL podcast, which Elissa Wald runs. I know that at least one subscriber wanted me to offer a message of hope, but this sure as shootin’ ain’t it. Binyamin Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar ben-Gvir stood every chance of being voted into irrelevance by...
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How the Ukraine War Ends: Three Real Endgames for WW 3.0
I’ve used an open source map from the Institute for the Study of War Map Room with attribution on screen. I’ve also asked Gemini to gin up a WW3.0 briefing graphic. I keep talking about that framing, and without a graphic it really is difficult to understand why that Heartland Alliance /…
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Falkland A!
This is being called Javier Milei’s sabre-rattling, and it’s an appropriate descriptor. A sabre is an effective weapon in skilled hands, but it’s absolutely useless at a range of 300 nautical miles. It’s not remarkable that Milei is going for the old Argentine wheeze of attacking the British...
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Golden Domes, Broken Promises: Has Anyone Got A Nuclear Umbrella?
I didn’t mention Russian nuclear attack this week because I think it’s likely. I was talking about other means of Russian attack against countries supporting Ukraine, and the UK as singled out by Russia for splitting away from Ukraine’s supporters. There was, however, a robust response to that...
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Hybrid Warfare: Useful Term or Crap Jargon?
A meeting with video and in-person attendees was a ’hybrid’ meeting until we got used to it, and now it’s just a meeting. Thing is, combining high-intensity operations with lower-intensity operations and working across domains with covert operations and information operations … that’s just war....
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Israel’s E1 Tender: Urban Planning or Political Trap?
There is a newly opened tender for constructing three neighbourhoods connecting part of Jerusalem Municipality which is over the Green Line to Maale Adumim, which is a Jerusalem suburb over the Green Line. For a town planning artefact this is attracting a mass of condemnation. Why? Maybe it’s...
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Not all choking is physical: The Undersea Cable Trap
Britannia ruled the waves by taking pains to control choke points: The Pas-de-Calais, the Strait of Gibraltar, the Suez Canal, the Bab-al-Mandeb (‘Grief’s Gate’ in Arabic), the Strait of Hormuz and the Straits of Malacca and Singapore. Recession of Empire abandoned Calais to France, Suez to…
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Triangle Trade-Offs
The United States has tried to fight in only one theatre of World War 3.0, focusing on achieving a quick, decisive defeat of Iran without engaging Russia and North Korea as adversaries. This is particularly difficult, given that Iran’s targeting intelligence is coming from Russia. Iran’s threats…
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Russian Threat: A Buckshee* Video
The salami slicing metaphor for Russian attack against the West … remember that idea? *Buckshee from the Hindi बख्शी, bakhshi, the Indian Army term for the pay officer. It generally refers to something extra or unearned, and it’s related to the Turkish word بخشیش, bakhsheesh, a gratuity. This is…
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Negotiating with Terrorists
ERRATA: In this podcast I confused Tulsi Gabbard, lately US Director of National Intelligence, and Kristi Noem, lately US Homeland Security Secretary. It was Tulsi Gabbard rather than Kristi Noem who maintained back-channel relations with the IRGC. In the video I imply that the negotiations…
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Great Game 3.0
Binyamin Netanyahu has started to describe a set of Israel’s more or less bilateral alliances as a ‘hexagon’. This must be because I’ve been describing Russia, Iran and North Korea as a Triangular Alliance, and I suppose he wants something with six points. I didn’t ask Harold what Great Game 2.0...
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Houthi Power
The US projected an SEP field around the Houthis: they’re Someone Else’s Problem. Whose problem? The Israelis and the Saudis. Thing is, neither the Israelis nor the Saudis are getting in the way of Chinese supplies (and Russian and Iranian supplies) to the Houthis, so the Yemeni tribal militia...
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Netanyahu's Nope
Donald Trump doesn’t need an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza for the US midterm elections in November. Binyamin Netanyahu, however, definitely needs not to withdraw from Gaza before the Israeli general election in October. Maybe they stitched up Netanyahu’s steadfast refusal between them. This is a...
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Gulf One: Did it work?
I had a question about this from a listener, and I’ve responded briefly, partly as a way to determine whether I can record live to Substack using my new webcam. I think the answer is that recording in 1080p HD is more than the Substack studio can handle. This is a public episode. If you'd like to...
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You used up all the missiles?!
The US defence budget going up to $1.5 trillion next year means you can give Lockheed Martin a load of cash to build manufacturing capacity for PrSM, but you can't magick inventory into existence. If the US buys all the new missiles, other countries might need to buy elsewhere. What happens to…
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Icebreakers
The US Coast Guard has had a bit of a windfall: lavish border security budgets in the Department of Homeland Security are going to pay for a stack of chunky new Finnish icebreakers. Because you were there for my polar security video you know why, and you know why China’s five icebreakers are a...
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Very, very disappointed
The agreement calls itself ‘this Roadmap’, and it has a lot to say about Palestinian weapons remaining in Palestinian hands. The Roadmap was a 2002-3 plan to achieve Israel-Palestine peace, so the term is a little nostalgic. For a Roadmap, this document is awfully uncertain how the parties are...
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Quagmire!
Half-assed committment to big tasks is what causes this. Generals make it clear what level of commitment is required to achieve a strategic aim. Political leadership commits a fraction of that; then they’ve got aims that don’t match resources, they change their aims, they make up strategy as they...
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Saudi nukes now?
The Saudi Arabia civil nuclear deal is a long-term thing, and it’s not going to disappear. The Israelis are relaxed about it. It’s not a factor in any eventual Saudi weapons capability: they can have that with or without a civil nuclear programme. What matters is that one key precondition. This…
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Destroying Iranian coastal defences honours US service members killed in action?
‘Accountability’ isn't a mission verb. It’s not a verb at all, in point of fact. You don't win a war by conducting missions that hold the enemy to account. You win a war by setting and then achieving strategic objectives. If you can't do that, stop having the war. When people are asking about…
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It's the impunity…
I’m not really sure whose reporting I’d accept on whether Israeli citizens’ attacks on West Bank Palestinians are increasing in tempo or intensity. Answers on a postcard please. The people who are protecting those who allegedly committed these crimes aren’t just arranging for people they like to...
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Why would you deep-six your own cease-fire?
Yesterday this was all about the Trump Toll. By the time I trimmed and uploaded the video, the morning’s Trump Toll newsprint was afternoon fishwrap (or in the case of subscriber Colonel Paul, parrot cage lining). Am I trying too hard to be topical? This is a public episode. If you'd like to...
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Mister Security
I’m not mystified at the way so many Israelis have viewed Netanyahu as a necessary evil for so long: he and his people have carefully built the legend that he is the only person in all of Israel capable of functioning as Prime Minister, and that without him there would be a return to the days of...
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I can't believe you trusted the Iranians!
There is every likelihood that Iran is continuing to pursue its interests and its strategies relentlessly, and the American negotiators are growing frustrated at dealing with experienced national security professionals whose political leadership are fairly relaxed about being bombed by the...
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Professionalism, Chaos, Teddy Roosevelt and his Nobel Prize
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit nusbacher.substack.com It’s been a long day, it’s a steamy hot evening, and I wanted to answer this question sooner rather than later. I’m going to keep this for paid subscribers, and I think there are some questions worth answering...
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Free shipping through the middle of August!
I keep promising myself I’ll talk about something else. The war that still has US forces anchored in the Middle East, Israeli forces seizing key terrain in South Lebanon and the Ukrainians striking deeper into Russia is important, but the odd spectacle of the US making unconvincing threats while...
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Donald Trump Is Iran's Enforcer
This will be elementary for some of you: Iran and Hizballah made it impossible for Israel to remain in South Lebanon a few years ago, and made life very difficult for Israel to commit land forces to joint operations in Lebanon from 1985 onwward, apart from long-range artillery fire. Israel’s...
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This war is so not over
The Islamic Republic of Iran will continue to relentlessly confront Israel and the United States. Hizballah will still relentlessly confront Israel. Ukraine will continue to fight for their independence. North Korea will continue to prepare to unify the Korean peninsula under the Kim Dynasty.…
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Great Jihad is Great
Was that a provocative enough title? I mention Prof Greg Rose in this. I know a bunch of my subscribers remember Greg (and Terry), and I think I’ll try and do a bio podcast about him. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes,...
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Terms of Iran's Victory
We saw the signals a few weeks ago: positioning the United States as the victor over Iran with careful caveats: it was a ‘military’ victory, meaning a tactical and operational victory. The target pack was serviced. The other poor dumb sonofabitch died for his country. The battle was won; the war…
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Trump-Netanyahu Götterdämmerung
The Twilight of the Warlords more than the Twilight of the Gods, mind. Last night Binyamin Netanyahu went cap in hand to the President of the United States to ask for permission to defend his country by responding to Iranian attacks with Israeli counterattacks against Iranian national...
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Polar Power Projection
The Strait of Hormuz moment makes this an apt time to look at the Bering Strait and the North West Passage. Looking at the proportion of the Arctic littoral that is the coast of Greenland and Canada’s Arctic Archipelago makes it easier to understand the odd fascination that President Trump has...
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Low Energy Warfare
So, Bibi Netanyahu is on a choke chain: precision strikes against Hamas leadership, apparently OK; attacks against Hizballah apart from the Capital, fine; but nothing that is going to lead to something close to achieving a strategic effect against Iran’s most prized proxy. Remember that moment…
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What's the difference between paying a toll and paying a fee?
I had a fairly random question this afternoon when I came in from an extraordinarily warm morning’s gardening on a holiday Monday. This was my answer. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit...
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If you want to send a message ...
I love that the BBC view me as somebody they can invite on to discuss Russia-Ukraine, and then tell me on the call that it’s about a particular case in the broader context of Russian air defence forces and NATO air forces occasionally using electronic warfare on each other to let them know they…
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A Tale of Two Summits
The Trump-Xi summit was about two things: China getting Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz and America expressing its relaxation at the idea of the People’s Liberation Army crossing the Strait of Formosa. Something I talked about on yesterday’s BBC Arabic spot, which I haven’t developed here, is...
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Israeli Parliament Dissolved
Netanyahu is trying to keep the late October election date by tabling conscription exemption legislation for young Haredi men, and maybe the Haredi parties will go for it. Their aim isn’t to lose Netanyahu the election (which might be close enough to have Netanyahu as caretaker PM ringing their...
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Starting the war again, again
The radio presenter said that the US and Israel were ‘plotting’ a resumption of hostilities. It’s not ‘plotting’ if the resumption is being signalled very clearly: it’s planning. The Iranians are definitely signalling engagement; the Pakistanis are definitely signalling engagement; the US might...
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The Right Hand of Islam(ist franchise terrorism)
This isn’t your daddy’s Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine with the sponsorship and the finance and the refined ideology. It’s 2026 and the Iranians are running Scottish separatist botnets, untrained mooks are making non-flammable petrol bombs and the Right of Islam has got a logo with...
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Are you any less dead if you're murdered by a stochastic terrorist?
How do the Germans survive when they treat all terrorism as crime in law?Also, is ‘stochastic terrorism’ some kind of meaningless jargon? Did I just record a 25 minute video without once referring to World War 3.0?There is, by the way, a prize for recognising the source of my definition of...
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Ya gotta believe
Sometimes I just have to get home from Crossfit, plunk down in front of the microphone, and start talking. In particular I thought it was important to say something before the weekend about the brief illusions of peace in the context of a deliberate de-escalation of conflict that’s called a...
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Which Fails First: Iran or Israel?
Planes of cleavage in the Iranian regime, imminent collapse of the bourgeois running dog settler colonialist Zionist entity; it says you’re about to watch your adversary dissolve into dust like a vampire on Buffy. Maybe it works. A state is an idea (unless you’re a blood-and-soil nationalist in...
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Your royal correspondent
There are definitely British monarchs about whom I know a great deal. I once spent a great deal of time with King Charles I’s encrypted correspondence with Queen Henrietta Maria, for instance, and that lamented king and martyr had a tremor in his handwriting that reads to my eye like a stammer. I...
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ABOUT THIS SHOW
Blunt discussions of war and national security from war historian and former intelligence officer Dr Lynette Nusbacher
nusbacher.substack.com
HOSTED BY
Lynette Nusbacher
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General Offensive - General Uprising currently has 92 episodes available on PodParley. New episodes are automatically indexed when they're published to the podcast feed.
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Blunt discussions of war and national security from war historian and former intelligence officer Dr Lynette Nusbacher nusbacher.substack.com
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General Offensive - General Uprising has 92 episodes. Check the episode list to see recent publication dates and frequency.
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General Offensive - General Uprising is created and hosted by Lynette Nusbacher.
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