Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 Wheat futures rallied Tuesday, with Dec26 Chicago up ~9¢ to $7.83/bu and Dec26 KC up ~7¢ to $8.45/bu. The move came after Russia rejected a Black Sea attack moratorium, though it also suspended export duties through year-end.🌽 Corn climbed too, with Dec26 gaining ~8¢ to settle at $5.46/bu on crop yield worries and wheat spillover strength. Funds may have posted a record net long position of 412k contracts — watch for CFTC confirmation Friday!🫘 Soybeans stole the show, with Nov26 surging nearly 30¢ to $13.18/bu. EPA's reallocation news, continued Chinese buying, and hot/dry weather worries all fueled the rally.🛢️ Oil prices spiked 5.2% as WTI settled at $90.22/barrel — its highest close since late July — after US airstrikes on Iranian targets reignited Middle East tensions. Diesel hit a 52-week high at $5.63/gallon, way up from $3.69 a year ago.🔥 Extreme heat is threatening Corn Belt crops this week, with triple-digit temps risking grain fill and stalk quality issues. Purdue's Dan Quinn expects an early harvest with yields landing near average, not a bumper crop or a disaster.📊 USDA unveiled a plan to modernize ag data collection, leaning on satellite imagery, geospatial tools, and AI to cut duplicate reporting for farmers. Secretary Brooke Rollins says the goal is timelier, more accurate data while protecting producer privacy.😊 Farmer sentiment rose for a second straight month, with Purdue/CME's Ag Economy Barometer hitting 135 in August, the highest since December 2025. More farmers now expect to be better off financially next year than worse off, for the first time since June 2025.🇨🇳 China bought more US soybeans, with a fresh flash sale of 136,000mt (5 million bushels) for the 2026/2027 marketing year.🚜 John Deere rolled out an AI assistant called JD in its Operations Center app to help farmers make real-time input decisions. It's free, won't sell farmer data, and rolls out more widely later this year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 EPA Small Refinery Exemptions: EPA granted full exemptions to 18 refineries and partial exemptions to 11 out of 34 petitions, covering 1.76 billion RINs for 2025. 📈 The agency plans to reallocate 100% of those credits to larger refiners in 2026-2027, sending soybean oil futures sharply higher.🌍 Black Sea Grain Talks: Turkey has finalized a plan for safe Black Sea grain shipments and is in talks with both Russia and Ukraine. 📉 The hope for resumed exports pushed wheat futures lower, even as Russian airstrikes continued hitting Odesa and Kyiv overnight.🚢 Grain Export Inspections: US corn export inspections hit a record high for the week at 1.5mmt, up 13% from the prior week. 📊 Soybean shipments disappointed at just 250,801mt (-42% week-over-week), while wheat came in near the top of expectations.🌱 Crop Conditions Update: Corn conditions held steady at 57% good-to-excellent, but soybeans slipped for a fourth straight week to 58%. ✅ Spring wheat harvest is running way ahead of schedule at 77% complete, nearly finished in South Dakota and Washington.💰 Soybean Flash Sale: USDA confirmed a flash sale of 159,000mt of soybeans to unknown destinations for 2026/2027 delivery. 🇨🇳 Notably, China was absent from last week's export inspection totals entirely.🐄 Ranchers First Initiative: USDA unveiled a new program to rebuild the US cow herd, including a heifer retention insurance endorsement and $500 million for meat processing capacity. 🏛️ The plan also adds federal beef purchases for schools and hospitals, plus faster disaster relief access for ranchers.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 Wheat futures hit a 3+ year high Friday as Dec26 Chicago wheat jumped ~23¢ to $7.84/bu and KC wheat rose ~22¢ to $8.44/bu. Escalating Black Sea military tensions between Russia and Ukraine keep fueling the rally, with Turkey now trying to broker a shipping agreement between the two sides.🌽 Corn futures also climbed, with Dec26 up 3¢ to $5.37/bu on tight US yield concerns and strong demand. Restricted Ukrainian exports are adding extra support to the market.🌱 Soybeans joined the rally too, with Nov26 gaining 20¢ to close at $12.88/bu. Fresh flash sales to China and other buyers helped keep momentum going.📊 CFTC's Commitment of Traders report showed big money managers piling into grains last week, buying 136k corn, 49k soybean, and 12k SRW wheat contracts. The corn net long position has surged to an estimated 379k contracts — rare, historically elevated territory for the fund community.🛢️ The Trump administration struck a major oil deal with Venezuela, gaining US access to 17 oil fields with ~65 billion barrels of potential reserves. The deal could draw $100B in investment, though relief at the pump isn't expected anytime soon given infrastructure and political hurdles.🥩 Trump also announced plans to let cattle producers process their own beef, aiming to loosen the Big Four meatpackers' grip on the industry. Critics note the move likely won't meaningfully shift the broader beef market and raises food-safety concerns tied to bypassing USDA inspection.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 Wheat hits a three-year high as Black Sea exports nearly halt amid Russia-Ukraine strikes—Chicago wheat settled near $7.61/bu, KC wheat at $8.22/bu. It's on pace for the biggest monthly gain since Feb 2022, right when the war began.⛽ Biofuels: The Trump admin is weighing nearly doubling small refinery exemptions (up to 1.8B gallons) to cut fuel prices before the midterms. Farm groups warn it could crush corn and soybean oil demand, though a 2027 biofuel quota bump may help offset it.☔ Weather markets: Kalshi is partnering with The Weather Company to grow its weather prediction contracts, with volume up 500% YoY toward a $1.1B annualized pace. The bigger play may be farmers using these as a hedge against rainfall and temperature swings.🇨🇳 China's crops: Extreme heat and flooding are hurting corn and soybean quality, likely boosting demand for imported corn and sorghum. Soybean imports probably won't get the same lift since China's domestic beans go to food, not feed.🌵 Drought monitor: Corn Belt conditions held mostly steady, though Wisconsin and Minnesota worsened. Corn 27%, soybeans 28%, winter wheat 56%, spring wheat 80%, and cattle 58% are in some level of drought.📉 Export sales: Corn sales crashed to a marketing-year low of just 31,200mt, down 87% week-over-week. Soybean sales dipped too, but wheat sales rose 2%, with Mexico leading purchases.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇷🇺🌾 Russia-Ukraine Tensions Escalate—Peace talks have collapsed, and Russia is weighing intensified strikes on Kyiv and other Ukrainian infrastructure, with Black Sea grain shipments essentially halted amid attacks on ships and ports. Up to 70 vessels are stuck waiting near the Sulina Canal, and worsening weather could add to the delays.📈🌽 Grains Rally on War Fears — Chicago wheat hit its daily limit Wednesday, settling near $7.48/bushel, while KC wheat, corn, and soybeans all posted strong gains. Reuters reports Ukraine's grain exports are down 60% this month vs. July, and Ukraine's farm ministry warns 2027 planted area could shrink without financial support.⛽🚜 SRE Exemptions Could Balloon—The White House is pushing for more small refinery exemptions to ease fuel prices before the midterms, with industry sources now pegging the total as high as 1.2-1.8 billion RINs. The American Soybean Association warns this could wipe out 500M gallons of biodiesel/renewable diesel demand and cost farmers ~$1B.🇨🇳🫘 China Buys More Soybeans—USDA confirmed another flash sale Wednesday, with US exporters selling 333,000 metric tons of soybeans to China for the 2026/2027 marketing year. Check out the export sales and China purchase tracker graphics below.🏭📊 Ethanol Output Hits Seasonal High — Weekly ethanol production climbed to 1.11 million barrels/day, up 2.1% week-over-week, while stocks rose to a sixteen-week high of 25.21 million barrels. Margins across the Corn Belt weakened, ranging from 10 cents negative to 30 cents positive.🥩🐄 Trump Eyes Beef Regulation Overhaul—On Glenn Beck's show, Trump floated cutting regulations in beef processing to help farmers, ranchers, and the economy, without offering specifics. Ground beef averaged $7.12/lb in July—up 9% year-over-year and 47% over five years—and Trump also signed a proclamation boosting reduced-tariff beef imports.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Corn futures rallied Tuesday, with Dec26 up 8¢ to close near $5.24/bu on shrinking yield expectations and worsening crop conditions. Soybeans climbed too — Nov26 gained almost 14¢ to settle around $12.38/bu on strong Chinese demand and crush margins, though traders are watching for possible Chinese retaliation over new US sanctions on Iran's trading partners.🌾 Wheat also closed higher despite growing talk of a potential Ukraine-Russia diplomatic resolution that could ease Black Sea shipping disruptions.🛢️ Diesel markets are bracing for more tightness as Russia weighs extending its export ban — possibly through October 1, or even year-end — in response to Ukraine's refinery strikes, which have hit 18 targets this month alone. Russia normally supplies about 10% of global diesel exports, so a longer ban could meaningfully squeeze prices, margins, and freight costs worldwide.📦 Soybean exports: USDA flagged a flash sale Tuesday — 132,000mt (5 million bushels) sold to unknown destinations for 2026/2027 delivery. 📊 Check the new crop export sales graphic below for the full picture.🤖 California ag labor: State lawmakers are weighing a late-session proposal to let autonomous farm equipment work alongside laborers in the same fields, drawing pushback from labor unions over safety and job concerns. Critics also say tucking the change into a budget trailer bill sidesteps normal legislative review, even though autonomous gear from companies like John Deere is already deployed elsewhere in the state.🥩 Beef tariffs: Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins says the administration is still hashing out details on Trump's plan to pause elevated tariffs on up to 300,000mt of imported ground beef, sold at a reported 25% discount to market prices. 🐄 The idea has drawn sharp criticism from ranchers and lawmakers who say it undercuts domestic cattle producers, despite Trump's "America First" messaging.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Corn Crop Conditions Slip — US corn ratings dropped to 57% good-to-excellent, down from 60% last week and below the 5-year average. North Dakota and Ohio led the declines with steep weekly drops. 📉🌾 Iowa Yield Checks In — Pioneer's 4,000+ yield checks put Iowa corn at 226.5bpa, just shy of last year, while Pro Farmer's estimate came in notably lower at 193.98bpa. USDA's August number remains the highest of the bunch at 216bpa. 📊💰 Corn Rallies, Soybeans Slide — Dec26 corn climbed to $5.16/bu on weak Crop Tour results and Brazil weather worries, while Nov26 beans dropped to $12.24 on a record-crop outlook. 🌱📈📉🕊️ Black Sea Diplomacy Talk — Zelenskiy signaled Ukraine and Russia may pursue diplomatic efforts, even as strikes continue and Ukraine pushes allies for more air defense ahead of winter. ⚔️🤝🇨🇳 New China Tariff on the Table — The US is weighing a 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods that would push total tariffs to ~20%, timed ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting next month. 🏭💵🚢 Export Inspections Mixed — Corn shipments fell 33% week-over-week, soybean shipments jumped 43% with no China purchases recorded, and wheat shipments dropped 17%. 📦🌐🐄 Mexican Cattle Ports Reopening — USDA reopened the Douglas, AZ port and plans two more reopenings in the coming months as Mexico battles screwworm cases. 🇲🇽🥩

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Crop Tour Shocks the Corn Market — Pro Farmer's survey pegged national corn yield at just 173.2 bpa (15.34 bil bu), well under USDA's 180.7 bpa estimate, with Iowa fields hiding disappointing grain length despite looking strong from the road. Soybeans told the opposite story, with a record 53.3 bpa yield (4.57 bil bu) projected as conditions improved heading west. 📈💹 Grains Rally on Bullish Tour Data — Corn closed up for a third straight session, with Dec26 gaining 5 cents to ~$5.09, while Nov26 soybeans rose 3 cents to ~$12.40 on tight supply fears and Chinese demand. ❌ Wheat slipped as traders eyed alternative suppliers amid ongoing Black Sea export disruptions.🇨🇳 China Keeps Buying Beans — USDA flash sales showed 712,000mt of soybeans sold to China and another 720,000mt to unknown destinations, both for 2026/27 delivery. 🌽 Corn also saw 205,000mt sold to an unknown buyer for the new marketing year.📊 Funds Pile Into Corn & Beans — The latest CoT report showed managed money adding 56k corn contracts (now net long 182k, the biggest since May) and 43k soybean contracts. 🌾 SRW wheat funds added a modest 8k contracts on the week.🚢 Russia Scrambles to Support Farmers — With over 97% of Black Sea export capacity offline from ongoing strikes, Moscow is weighing loan extensions, subsidies, and government grain purchases to help exporters. 🌍 Russia and Ukraine together account for more than a quarter of global wheat exports, so the standstill carries major global weight.🥩 Trump Opens the Door to Cheaper Beef Imports — The administration will allow 300,000mt of tariff-free ground beef imports over 90 days, with exporters agreeing to a 25% discount they claim will reach consumers. 🐄 Cattle groups are pushing back hard, though the volume is only ~2% of US consumption.📋 Cattle on Feed: Mixed Signals — August 1 cattle on feed hit 11.12 mil head (+2% YoY), with July placements down 11% (a bullish surprise) but longer feeding times masking a shrinking cowherd. 🚪 The report may get overshadowed by Trump's beef tariff news and today's reopening of the border to Mexican cattle.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results — Iowa corn came in at 194 bpa (above the 3-yr average) while Minnesota hit 199 bpa, both showing solid potential despite some pollination and drought stress. Soybean pod counts were strong in both states, especially Minnesota's impressive 15% jump above its 3-yr average. 📈📊 Grain Futures Update — Corn (Dec26) crept up to ~$5.04/bu on mixed Crop Tour results, while soybeans (Nov26) slipped slightly to ~$12.37/bu amid farmer selling vs. export demand. Wheat stayed mixed as buyers eye alternatives to Black Sea supply. 🌾🚢 Export Sales Snapshot — Corn sales dipped last week (Japan the top buyer) but new-crop corn and soybean sales were strong, with soybeans hitting 1.7mmt in new-crop demand led by the Netherlands. Wheat sales beat expectations, up 54% week-over-week with Mexico leading purchases. 🌍🚜 John Deere Optimism — Deere raised its profit forecast and shares jumped up to 10% on stronger 2027 equipment orders and normalizing used-equipment values. The recovery is still gradual, with regional sales down 15-20%, though Deere recovered $382M in tariff costs. 💰🇧🇷 Brazil's Corn Deficit Widens — Booming ethanol demand is projected to push Brazil's corn deficit to 7.2mmt, up 167% from last season. Rising livestock feed use and slower production growth (due to tight credit) are compounding the squeeze. ⛽🏥 Farmer Health Insurance Strain — Expiring ACA subsidies have driven premiums sharply higher for many farm families, adding financial pressure on top of tough margins. In Wisconsin alone, 14% of farm families now have no coverage at all, with another 17% relying only on catastrophic plans. 😟

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Soybeans led a broad grain rally Wednesday, with Nov26 jumping ~21¢ to settle near $12.37/bu on disappointing Crop Tour results. Corn and wheat joined the move higher too, with Dec26 corn topping $5.00/bu overnight for the first time since May 19th! 🌽🚜 The Pro Farmer Crop Tour hit Illinois and western Iowa, finding IL corn yields down 7.7% YoY at 184.2 bpa and soybean pod counts below both last year and the 3-year average. Iowa fared better, with soybean estimates topping the 3-year average even as disease pressure showed up more than expected. 🔍🏦 Fed July meeting minutes signaled another rate hike may still be needed if inflation doesn't cool toward the 2% target, even with annual inflation sitting at 3.4%. But softer economic data since then has cut September hike odds to just 36%, down from 70% at the end of July. 📉⛈️ Severe storms are lining up across the Corn Belt, with Thursday's threat stretching from Nebraska to Minnesota and expanding Friday into Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Indiana. More rounds are expected through the weekend, raising flash flooding and crop damage concerns on already-saturated fields. 🌩️🚢 Black Sea shipping disruptions could slash Ukraine's wheat exports to just 5-10mmt this season, down from ~14mmt last year, as over 97% of Azov/Black Sea export capacity is lost to ongoing attacks. Ukraine is leaning on rail, the Danube, and road routes, which could cover roughly half of normal export potential. 🌾⛽ US ethanol output slipped to 1.1mil bbl/day last week, down 2.5% from the prior week, while stocks climbed to a 15-week high of 25.12mil barrels. Corn Belt margins softened slightly but stayed positive, running 15-35 cents in the black. 💰

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results – Indiana corn came in at 183.5 bpa (down 5.3% YoY) while Nebraska corn was pegged at 163.6 bpa (down 8.9% YoY), with dryland fields dragging down state averages. 📉 Soybean pod counts were also lower in both states, and standing water in Indiana is raising disease pressure concerns.🌱 Soybean & Corn Futures Update – Soybeans rallied for a third straight session, with Nov26 closing near $12.17/bu on yield worries, Chinese demand, and rising crude prices. 🌾 Corn slipped slightly, with Dec26 settling at $4.88/bu as traders digest crop tour data, while wheat stayed weak despite Black Sea turmoil.⛽ Diesel Margins Hit Record Highs – US diesel refining margins topped $100/barrel for the first time ever as the US-Iran war disrupts Strait of Hormuz flows. 🔥 Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries are adding fuel to the fire, potentially meaning pricier heating costs this winter.🌤️ Cooler, Wetter Pattern Incoming – A jet stream dip starting Thursday will bring cooler Canadian air into the Corn Belt, with highs in the 70s-80s and lows dipping into the 40s-50s. ☔ More rain is expected Friday into next week, which could relieve heat stress but worsen saturation in already-soggy fields.🇨🇳 China Keeps Buying Soybeans – USDA confirmed another flash sale of 136,000mt to China for 2026/2027 delivery, pushing new crop purchases to 22.3% of the White House's 25mmt goal. ✅ Old crop purchases already blew past their target, hitting 104% of the outlined goal.🚢 Black Sea Shipping Chaos Deepens—Five grain vessels were attacked near Novorossiysk and Tuapse this week as Russia-Ukraine strikes on ports continue to escalate. ⚠️ With Azov Sea shipments halted since July 10 and terminals suspending operations, roughly a quarter of global wheat exports are increasingly at risk.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results (SD & OH): South Dakota corn came in at 149.1 bpa (-14% YoY) with soybean pods down 20% YoY, both falling short of USDA's estimates. Ohio fared better at 180.2 bpa for corn (-3% YoY), but the tour's steeper declines vs. USDA in both states could be seen as a friendly signal for prices! 📉🚀 Soybeans Rally Hard: Nov26 beans jumped nearly 24 cents to $12.16/bu — the highest close since late July — fueled by excessive Corn Belt rainfall fears, a strong NOPA crush report, and rising crude oil. Corn also gained ~6 cents to settle near $4.90/bu on Dec26, while wheat traders took profits despite Black Sea shipping worries lurking in the background. 🌧️💰📊 Crop Conditions Slip: US corn conditions dipped to 60% good-to-excellent (below the 5-year average of 62%), and soybeans slid to 61% good-to-excellent as well. Spring wheat bucked the trend, improving to 52% G/E with harvest racing ahead of schedule at 41% complete! 🌾🏭 NOPA Crush Report – Record July: Soybean crush hit a record for the month at 216.65 million bushels, up 11% YoY, though it missed trade estimates. Soybean oil stocks crashed to a 9-month low of 1.36 billion lbs — the lowest July level on record — signaling red-hot demand for soy products! 🛢️📉🚢 Export Inspections – Mixed Bag: Corn shipments surged to a 10-week high at 75 million bushels (+82% YoY!), while soybean shipments disappointed at just 10 million bushels (-46% YoY) with zero activity from China. Wheat exports beat expectations too, climbing 22% YoY to 18 million bushels! 🇨🇳❌🧪 Phosphate Makes a Comeback: Moroccan phosphate returned to the US for the first time in 5 years, with 54,000mt landing in New Orleans after countervailing duty relief. Don't expect a price crash though — global phosphate supply remains extremely tight, with roughly two-thirds constrained worldwide! ⚗️💵

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌧️ Corn Belt Flooding Intensifies – The already-saturated Corn Belt got hit with another round of heavy rain this weekend, with Illinois and Indiana seeing localized totals over 5". The White River in Anderson, Indiana crested at 24.9 feet, breaking a flood record that had stood since 1913! 😱📈 Grain Prices Surge on Friday – Corn, beans, and wheat all rallied hard to close out the week, with December corn near $4.83 and wheat leading the charge near $7.54. Black Sea export worries plus "too much rain" fears across the Corn Belt combined to fuel the move higher. 🚀🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Begins Today – Scouts are hitting the road to survey over 2,000 fields across seven states, giving us our first real independent look at corn and soybean yield potential this season. The eastern and western legs run through Thursday, and we'll be bringing you daily updates all week long. 🔍🚢 Black Sea Chaos Reshapes Global Grain Trade – Escalating Russia-Ukraine port attacks are pushing Asian buyers toward alternative suppliers, with countries like Indonesia and Bangladesh sourcing wheat from Australia and Romania instead. Ukraine warned it may only export half its expected ag goods this season as vessels grow hesitant to enter the war zone. ⚓💰 Funds Keep Selling Ag Contracts – The latest CFTC data shows large money managers were net sellers across corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat for the week ending August 11. It's a continuation of the bearish positioning we've been tracking in recent reports. 📉🇨🇳 China Keeps Buying US Beans – Another flash sale hit the tape Friday, with China picking up more new-crop soybeans for the 2026/2027 marketing year. New crop soybean sales are now running +153% ahead of last year's pace, largely thanks to a wave of Chinese purchases. 🌱📊 Wall Street Notches Another Record Week – The S&P 500 closed at fresh highs, marking its third straight weekly gain as cooling inflation data boosted rate-cut-hold expectations. Investors are still keeping one eye on Middle East tensions, though, as rising Treasury yields hint that borrowing costs aren't easing up just yet. 💹

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Corn Belt Weather 🌧️ Too much rain is becoming a problem in parts of the Corn Belt. Heavy rain from Iowa to Ohio and into Kentucky has caused flooding, with Indiana and Ohio seeing some of the heaviest amounts. More rain and severe storms are possible in the coming days, and some water levels could approach record highs. Localized crop damage has already been reported from strong winds, flooding, and heavy rain. 💧 Rainfall has been highly variable across the region. Southern Iowa and parts of Missouri saw drought conditions improve, while dry conditions worsened in central Illinois, western Iowa, eastern Minnesota, and northern Wisconsin. Since the beginning of August, Iowa has received 172% of normal rainfall, Illinois 162%, Indiana 255%, and Ohio 295%. Meanwhile, parts of the Plains remain very dry, with Oklahoma at just 18% of normal rainfall, South Dakota at 32%, Kansas at 41%, and North Dakota at 43%. 🌾 Areas Experiencing Drought  Corn: 29% Soybeans: 26% Winter wheat: 52% Spring wheat: 63% Cattle: 53%📉 Grain Markets 🌽 Corn futures pulled back Thursday. December corn fell nearly 9 cents to $4.72 per bushel as traders took profits following Wednesday's rally. Large South American crops and favorable U.S. weather forecasts also pressured prices. 🫘 Soybeans finished mixed. November soybeans slipped a penny to $11.82 per bushel. Favorable weather and expectations for large South American supplies offset stronger demand for U.S. soybeans. 🌾 Wheat futures also edged lower. Early gains tied to Black Sea shipping concerns faded after Ukraine proposed halting attacks on civilian targets in the region. Russia has denied receiving the proposal. 🚢 Ukraine Grain Exports Plunge 🇺🇦 Ukrainian grain exports have fallen sharply. Russian attacks on Black Sea ports and vessels caused exports to drop 75% year over year during the first two weeks of August. The disruption comes at a difficult time, with wheat harvest at its peak, storage filling up, and corn harvest approaching. 📦 Farmers are struggling to sell their grain. Without export revenue, some farmers may not have enough money to cover expenses and plant winter or next year's crops. Ukraine is using rail, road, and Danube routes, but those alternatives cannot handle nearly as much grain as the country's Black Sea ports. 📊 U.S. Export Demand 🌽 U.S. corn export sales were stronger than expected. Weekly sales reached 410,700 MT, or about 16 million bushels, up 46% from the four-week average. Spain was the largest buyer, while new-crop corn sales reached 925,000 MT, or about 36 million bushels. 🫘 Soybean demand was mixed. Old-crop sales totaled 75,100 MT, or 3 million bushels, down 48% from the four-week average. However, new-crop soybean sales were strong at 1.8 MMT, or about 65 million bushels, with China the largest buyer. 🌾 Wheat sales remained soft. Sales totaled 255,900 MT, or 9 million bushels, down 14% from the previous week and 8% below the four-week average. Mexico was the largest buyer. 🇨🇳 China Keeps Buying U.S. Soybeans 🫘 China purchased another 125,000 MT of U.S. soybeans. The sale is for delivery during the 2026/27 marketing year. China has now purchased roughly 21% of its 25 MMT U.S. soybean commitment. 🧪 Fertilizer Prices Ease 📉 The global fertilizer market is showing signs of improvement. India received urea offers about 12% below its June purchase price, while urea prices have fallen by more than half from the $959 per ton paid in April. ⚠️ However, risks remain. Reduced shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt fertilizer trade, while stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks are keeping uncertainty high. 🥩 Tyson Cuts Beef Capacity 🏭 Tyson Foods is closing more beef facilities. The company will close plants in Illinois and Utah and is seeking a buyer for another facility in Washington. Tyson plans to consolidate its beef operations around major plants in Nebraska, Kansas, and Texas. 🐄 The closures highlight the severity of the cattle shortage. The U.S. cattle herd remains at its lowest level in more than seven decades, forcing packers to compete aggressively for expensive cattle. Cargill and JBS have also closed or repurposed facilities as the beef industry works to improve margins.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 USDA Slashes Corn & Soybean Yields—The USDA cut its 2026/27 corn yield to 180.7 bpa and soybean yield to 52.7 bpa, both below trade expectations. Higher planted acreage still pushed total production estimates above July's forecasts for both crops. 📊🌾 Wheat Crop Stays Historically Small—USDA held its wheat production estimate at 1.53 billion bushels, marking the smallest US crop in 56 years. The report came with a much-improved 62.7% survey response rate. 📉🚀 Grain Futures Rally on the Report — Corn futures jumped ~20 cents to settle near $4.81/bu, its best close since late July, while soybeans gained ~15 cents to $11.83/bu. Wheat rode the wave higher too, with Chicago and Kansas City contracts both up over 20 cents. 💰🌱 Prevented Plantings Drop Sharply—Corn prevented plant acres fell 25% and soybeans plunged 56% from last year, while wheat prevented plantings rose 31%. Overall, corn and wheat acreage declined while soybean acreage expanded roughly 7%. 📐⛈️ Severe Storms Batter the Corn Belt—Winds up to 100 mph, tornadoes, and flooding rains of 8–10 inches swept through the region, knocking out power for hundreds of thousands. Early damage reports appear localized, but more storms are expected through the week. ⚡🇨🇳 China Books Another Soybean Flash Sale—US exporters sold 244,000mt of soybeans to China ahead of Xi Jinping's expected Washington visit next month. Most buying is coming from state traders, while private importers stay sidelined due to tariffs and weak commercial viability. 🚢🇧🇷 Brazilian Farmers Face Rising Bankruptcies — Agribusiness bankruptcy filings jumped 22% year-over-year in Q1, led by soybean and cattle producers. Corporate farm filings surged nearly 74% amid higher costs and tighter credit. 💸⛽ Ethanol Output & Margins Stay Strong — US ethanol production rose 1% week-over-week to 1.12 million barrels per day, with stocks hitting an 11-week high. Corn Belt margins remain solidly positive, ranging from 15 to 45 cents. 🔥

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌩️ Severe storms tore through the Corn Belt Tuesday, spawning tornadoes in Illinois and Indiana and knocking out power to nearly a million people. Parts of Indiana and Ohio saw 6"+ of rain in 24 hours, and more stormy weather is expected through the week.🌾 Russian August wheat exports could hit a 10-year low as Sovecon slashes its forecast to 3-3.4mmt amid Black Sea shipping disruptions. Ukraine's exports are also sinking, down 76% in August y/y, after drone strikes suspended operations at two major Novorossiysk grain terminals.📡 The USDA is overhauling NASS crop reporting, tapping Kip Tom to modernize a system plagued by falling survey response rates. The plan leans on satellite imagery, drones, and machine-generated data to eventually deliver faster, more frequent (and more accurate) corn and soybean estimates.📊 The USDA's Crop Production and WASDE report drops Wednesday at 11am CST, with traders expecting cuts to corn and soybean yields after a hot, dry July. This is the first report to incorporate actual survey data, and both new crop US and world carryout estimates are expected to shrink.🚢 USDA confirmed fresh flash sales Tuesday, with 136,000mt of soybeans sold to China and 180,000mt of soybean meal sold to the Philippines. Both deals are set for delivery in the 2026/2027 marketing year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Ultra-Processed Foods Definition Delayed? The food industry is pushing the Trump administration to delay its ultra-processed foods definition, warning it could raise costs and spark litigation. 🏛️ Despite pushback, officials say the definition is still moving forward—just with uncertain timing.📉 DTN Yield Models Point Lower DTN's Digital Yield Tour pegs national corn yield at 178.5 bpa and soybeans at 52.1 bpa, both below USDA's estimates. 🌾 If it holds, US corn production could fall 8-9% from last year.📊 USDA WASDE Report Wednesday USDA releases its Crop Production and WASDE report Wednesday at 11am CST, with traders expecting cuts to corn and soybean yields. ⏳ It's the first report to incorporate actual survey data this season.🌱 Crop Conditions: Mixed corn ratings held steady at 61% good-to-excellent, while soybeans slipped to 62%. ☀️ Spring wheat conditions worsened too, though winter wheat harvest is now 91% complete.💹 Grain Markets Await Report: Soybeans edged higher, and corn stayed flat as traders sat on the sidelines ahead of Wednesday's data. 🌊 Wheat saw modest gains despite Black Sea shipping concerns, with weak demand still the bigger focus.🚜 Farmers Push for Transparency & E15 Minnesota Corn Growers' Todd Wentzel says the Fertilizer Transparency Act could ease farmers' input costs. ⛽ With E15 now in the farm bill, year-round sales could be a big win for farm profitability.🔥 Europe's Fifth Heat Wave Triple-digit temps are scorching France and England as Europe faces its fifth heat wave, worsening drought along the Rhine and Danube. 💶 Losses are already estimated at $1.7 billion, with roughly 9mmt of crops destroyed.🚢 US Export Inspections Strong Corn export inspections hit 1.7mmt for the week, up 14% year-over-year despite a weekly dip. 🇨🇳 China reappeared in the data for the first time in three weeks.⚡ Flash Sale Alert USDA reported a new flash sale of 105,000mt of corn to unknown destinations for 2025/2026 delivery. 📈 Total corn sales for the marketing year are now running 23% ahead of last year's pace.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 Ukraine grain exports could plunge as Russian attacks on Odesa disrupt Black Sea shipments, with the ag ministry slashing its export estimate 54% to 29.6mmt. 📦 Storage bins could be full by November, leaving an 11mmt shortfall as alternative routes through Romania can't fully replace Odesa's capacity.📈 Wheat futures bounced back Friday, with Chicago Sep26 up nearly 9 cents to $6.40/bu and KC Sep26 up 14 cents to $7.14/bu on a weaker dollar and Black Sea worries. 🌽 Corn held mostly steady while soybeans slipped despite China ramping up US purchases, with traders positioning ahead of Wednesday's USDA report.🌧️ This week's forecast looks favorable for the Corn Belt, with rain chances across the central and eastern regions offering relief from recent heat. The hot, dry western Corn Belt should trend cooler and wetter by week's end, though rainfall may stay uneven in spots.💰 CFTC data shows managed money added 18k corn contracts for the week ending August 4, pushing the net long to 145k contracts, the biggest since late May. 📉 Funds were net sellers of 28k soybean contracts and 17k SRW wheat contracts on the week.🛳️ USDA flash sales Friday: 238,000mt (9mil bu) of soybeans sold to China for 2026/2027 delivery. 🇲🇽 Corn sales to Mexico totaled 286,097mt (11mil bu), split between the 2026/2027 and 2027/2028 marketing years.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽🔥 North Dakota Drought & Crops — North Dakota is baking through a hot, dry July with record triple-digit heat and worsening drought, and it's hitting crops hard: corn dropped to 50% good-to-excellent (from 61%) and soybeans fell to 46% (from 52%). Relief may be on the way, with better rain chances and more seasonal temps expected in August. 🌾🗺️ US Drought Monitor Update — Heavy rain eased drought across parts of the Corn Belt (central/NW Indiana, SE Kentucky, N Illinois, NW Minnesota, SE Wisconsin), but dry pockets in Michigan, Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois saw conditions worsen. The Plains stayed hot, with drought deepening in North Dakota, western Nebraska, central Kansas, and eastern Oklahoma despite some relief in the Dakotas/Nebraska. 🌵📈 Grain Futures Recap — Corn (Dec26) ticked up 2¢ to $4.62/bu on short covering, though Corn Belt rain forecasts kept a lid on gains. Soybeans (Nov26) climbed 3¢ to $11.78/bu on fresh Chinese demand, while wheat slipped despite Black Sea shipping uncertainty. 💹🇨🇳🫘 China Soybean Buying Spree — China snapped up another 122,000mt of US soybeans for 2026/27 delivery, bringing its flash-sale total to ~2.5mmt over the past month. Buying is ramping up ahead of Xi Jinping's expected US visit, with chatter that sorghum and barley purchases could be next. 🤝📦 US Export Sales — Corn sales tumbled to a marketing-year low of 116,700mt, down 68% week-over-week, with South Korea leading purchases. Soybean sales also hit a marketing-year low at just 32,200mt (Indonesia the top buyer), while wheat held steadier at 296,400mt led by the Philippines. 🚢

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌍 Global Food Prices Set to Climb 📈 The UN warns food prices could start rising by year-end and accelerate into 2027, driven by conflicts in Iran/Ukraine pushing up oil, diesel, gas, and fertilizer costs. 🌦️ El Niño threatens crop yields in key growing regions, and while consumers haven't felt it yet, higher commodity costs typically take 3-6 months to hit grocery shelves.🌽 Corn & Soybeans Slide Again 📉 Dec26 corn dropped ~6 cents to $4.60/bu and Nov26 soybeans fell 3 cents to ~$11.75/bu as favorable rain forecasts across the Corn Belt pressured prices, with StoneX projecting a yield above USDA's estimate. 🌾 Wheat bucked the trend and closed higher on renewed Black Sea shipping concerns tied to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.🏛️ Farm Bureau Pushes for Senate Aid Approval 💰 AFBF President Zippy Duvall is urging the Senate to pass the House's budget resolution, which includes $12 billion in economic aid for farmers and ranchers. 🚜 The relief won't fully cover recent losses, but comes as producers battle rising costs, inflation, and weak commodity prices — on top of an estimated $44.3 billion in government payments already expected this year.🚢 Flash Sale Alert: Corn Export Sold 🌽 USDA reported 120,000mt (5 million bushels) of corn sold to exporters on Wednesday. 📦 30,000mt ships in the 2026/27 marketing year, with the remaining 90,000mt slated for 2027/28 delivery.⛽ Ethanol Production Dips, Margins Hold Strong 📊 Weekly ethanol output fell 2.3% week-over-week to 1.11 million barrels/day, though it's up 1% year-over-year, while stocks slipped to 24.52 million barrels. 💪 Despite the dip, Corn Belt ethanol margins remain healthy, running 10-40 cents positive per Reuters data.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 StoneX Crop Estimates — StoneX pegged the national corn yield at 184.8bpa (16.16bil bu), above USDA's 183.0bpa, while soybeans came in at 53.0bpa (4.47bil bu), just above USDA's last call. 📊 USDA updates its own numbers on August 12, so all eyes are on that report next.📉 Grain Markets Slide — Corn (Dec26) and soybeans (Nov26) both closed lower Tuesday, pressured by falling crude oil on Iran diplomacy hopes and better August rain chances across the Corn Belt. 🌦️ Wheat also slipped despite ongoing Black Sea shipping chaos.🇨🇳 Another China Soybean Flash Sale — USDA confirmed a fresh 132,000mt soybean sale to China for the 2026/2027 marketing year. 🔥 That's the third flash sale to China in just the past week.⚓ Black Sea Export Crisis — Russian strikes near Odesa have shipowners suspending calls, choking off Ukraine's grain export routes and crushing local prices by ~30%. 🚂 Rail/road/river alternatives won't hit meaningful capacity until late August, and even then only handle about half the usual volume — risking 30mmt+ in lost exports.📈 Farmer Sentiment Rebounds — Purdue/CME's Ag Economy Barometer jumped to 126 in July from 113 in June, though still below last year's 135. 💰 High input costs remain the top worry, but optimism about future export markets persists.🏭 ADM Raises Guidance — ADM hiked its profit outlook again after a strong Q2, powered by biofuels policy tailwinds and a 129% surge in Ag Services & Oilseeds profit. 🚀 Shares rose 2%+ on the day and are up 38% YTD, while the S&P 500 also closed at a fresh record high.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Corn conditions slipped for a third straight week to 61% good-to-excellent, falling below the five-year average as hot, dry weather raised yield concerns. 📉 Dec26 futures rallied Monday, gaining ~9 cents to close near $4.73/bu on crop stress and a strong wheat rally.🌱 Soybean ratings held steady at 63% good-to-excellent, just above the five-year average, while futures pushed higher on crop concerns and fresh export demand. 🇨🇳 USDA confirmed flash sales of 488,000mt to China and 136,150mt to unknown destinations for 2026/2027 delivery, following reports of 14-16 cargoes purchased by Chinese buyers last week.🌾 Spring wheat conditions improved to 55% good-to-excellent, topping the five-year average, and winter wheat harvest reached 86% complete, right in line with normal pace. ⚔️ Wheat futures surged on continued Black Sea attacks and news that US-Iran peace talks were called off.🏡 US farmland values kept climbing in 2026, with average farm real estate up 3.4% to $4,500/acre and cropland hitting a record $6,020/acre. 📊 Growth has cooled from last year's pace, but Corn Belt land remains the priciest in the country at $8,590/acre on average.🚜 CNH expects the farm machinery market to rebound in 2027 as aging equipment from the profitable 2022-2023 years drives replacement demand. 📈 Shares jumped Monday after the company raised its full-year outlook on better-than-expected Q2 earnings.🚢 Corn export inspections hit an eight-week high at 1.9mmt, up 23% week-over-week and 45% year-over-year. 📦 Soybean and wheat inspections lagged behind last year's pace, with China absent from the week's soybean loadings.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 Grain Markets Wheat futures fell sharply Friday as traders took profits after Thursday's Black Sea-driven rally. Corn and soybeans also finished lower, pressured by improving weather forecasts calling for widespread Corn Belt rainfall and cooler temperatures. 🌧️ 🇨🇳 China Ramps Up Soybean Buying China purchased at least 14 cargoes of US soybeans on Friday, marking its largest single-day buying spree of July. Traders expect more purchases ahead of trade talks later this fall, with China's new-crop commitments now nearing 3.9 million metric tons. 🚢🌱 📦 USDA Flash Sale USDA also reported a flash sale of 252,000 metric tons (9 million bushels) of soybeans to an unknown destination for the 2026/27 marketing year. 📈 💰 Funds Turn More Bullish Managed money funds were net buyers of 70,000 corn, 30,000 soybean, and 10,000 SRW wheat contracts last week. Net long positions in both corn and soybeans climbed to their highest levels since late May. 📊 🌱 Corteva Raises Outlook Corteva raised its full-year profit forecast, citing strong demand across key crop markets. The company said increased soybean acreage should support seed sales, though fewer corn acres and higher input costs could weigh on crop protection demand later this year. 🌽➡️🫛 🛢️ Iran Talks Resume US-Iran peace talks are set to resume today after President Trump called off a planned military strike in favor of diplomacy. Hopes for a deal, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, sent WTI crude oil below $79 per barrel in early Monday trading. 🤝📉

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZc...🌵 USDA's weekly Drought Monitor shows the worst conditions holding in Nebraska, South Dakota, Colorado, Oklahoma, and areas further west, with pockets also showing up in western Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and northern Illinois. 29% of US corn areas and 26% of soybean areas are now in drought, though overnight rain hit South Dakota/Nebraska and radar is active this morning over MN, IA, MO, and eastern KS. Maps below 👇🌾 Grains were mixed Thursday as traders eye a wetter, cooler Corn Belt forecast for early August. Nov26 soybeans slid 4 cents to ~$11.89/bu, Dec26 corn dropped 3.25 cents to ~$4.69/bu, and wheat closed higher but gave back early gains tied to Black Sea military escalation. Charts below 📊🇨🇳 China bought more US soybeans! USDA confirmed a flash sale of 132,000mt for the 26/27 marketing year, pushing China's new-crop purchases to 3.045mmt total against the White House's 25mmt/year target. Tracker below 📈🏭 ADM is expanding its North American soy crush capacity at plants in Frankfort, IN, Deerfield, MO, Lincoln, NE, and Spiritwood, ND, mostly wrapping up by late 2028/early 2029. The upgrades add ~700,000 metric tons of annual crush capacity, translating to demand for well over 25 million bushels of US crops. 🌱⛽ Senate Republicans are set to add permanent year-round E15 sales to the farm bill, with Ag Chair John Boozman scheduling markup for Aug. 6. It's a scaled-down version of the House's May bill built on a Fischer-Capito framework, but the overall farm bill still needs 60 votes with Democrats pushing back on SNAP cost-sharing changes. 🚜

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Soybean futures tumbled Wednesday as improving weather forecasts weighed on the market, with the Nov26 contract falling roughly 27 cents to settle near $11.93/bushel. Widespread rain is expected across much of the Corn Belt later this week, and corn followed soybeans lower with Dec26 down about 9 cents to $4.72/bushel.🌾 Wheat futures are trading higher this morning amid escalating Black Sea tensions, after Reuters reported Ukrainian drones struck a grain export terminal at Russia's Taman port, causing significant damage. Ukraine also hit four Russian tankers in the Black Sea and Azov Sea, a notable development given Russia and Ukraine together account for nearly 30% of global wheat exports.🚜 Safety nets are helping prevent another 1980s-style farm crisis, even as corn and soybean farmers face negative margins for a second straight year with 2026 costs pushed higher by the US-Iran war. Economists say crop insurance, federal programs, and lower debt levels are cushioning the blow, though relief will likely require higher commodity prices or lower input costs.📈 Bunge raised its earnings outlook after a strong quarter fueled by its soybean business, with Q2 revenue surging 88% year-over-year to $24 billion. CEO Greg Heckman also flagged risk ahead, warning that fertilizer supply disruptions could hit Brazil's second corn crop and push some Argentine farmers to cut back on phosphate applications.💧 Fertilizer prices kept sliding for a seventh straight week in late July, led by a 14% drop in UAN32 and an 11% decline in anhydrous, which fell below $1,000/ton for the first time since March. Most fertilizers remain pricier than a year ago, but two new plants under construction in Mexico could boost Latin American supply.⛽ US ethanol production hit a 28-week high last week, climbing to 1.13 million barrels per day, up 3.6% week-over-week and 5.1% year-over-year. Stocks rose to 24.73 million barrels as margins stayed strong across the Corn Belt, ranging 10–35 cents positive per Reuters data.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 US corn is pollinating under intense heat and drought, with the western Corn Belt hit hardest and some yield damage likely irreversible even if weather improves. 🌙 Warm overnight temps in July and August could further chip away at yield potential.📈 Corn and soybean futures rallied Tuesday after Monday's USDA crop progress report showed sharper-than-expected declines in crop conditions. 🌦️ The market brushed off cooler, wetter forecasts and softer crude oil prices to keep the rally going.💵 USDA says farmers need another round of financial aid, pointing to the $12 billion proposed in the House budget resolution. ⛽ Officials also highlighted new biofuel mandates as a boost to ethanol/biodiesel demand and crop prices.🔥 Western Europe is bracing for its fourth heat wave of the summer, with temps up to 108°F and over 1 million acres already burned. 🐄 The heat and fires are hammering crop yields, water supplies, and the livestock sector alike.🚢 Black Sea shipping risks are escalating, with Russia weighing machine guns, anti-drone defenses, and armed escorts for grain vessels. 🌾 Major export terminals are restricting truck deliveries, pushing Sovecon to cut its Russian wheat export forecast by ~4%.🇺🇳 USDA confirmed another flash sale, with 197,272mt of corn sold to unknown destinations for 2026/2027 delivery. 📊 The sale adds to recent momentum in export demand for the upcoming marketing year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Crop Conditions Slide as Corn Belt Bakes – US corn ratings fell to 63% good-to-excellent (down from 67%) and soybeans dropped to 63% (from 66%) as hot, dry weather hit the Corn Belt hard. 🌵 North and South Dakota are the biggest trouble spots, with corn there rated just 50% good-excellent across nearly 11% of US planted acres.☀️ Driest July in Over a Decade—Corn country saw just 3.42" of rain in July, the lowest since 2014, paired with above-normal heat. 📉 Analysts warn trend yield is at risk unless August delivers timely rain and cooler temps.🌾 European Wheat Pulls Back – Prices eased Monday as traders found Russia-Ukraine strikes hadn't seriously damaged key export terminals, while good harvest weather in Europe added pressure. ⚠️ Still, Ukraine pushed the UN Security Council for global action to protect Black Sea shipping routes.📉 Corn & Soybeans Tumble Monday – Dec26 corn fell 14¢ to $4.74/bu and Nov26 soybeans dropped nearly 40¢ to $12.14/bu on easing oil prices and better weather outlooks. 🌾 Wheat also slipped, with Sep26 Chicago down 18¢ to $6.60 and Sep26 KC off 16¢ to $7.29.🇨🇳 Fresh Soybean Sales to China—The USDA flashed a 132,000mt soybean sale to China plus another 126,000mt to unknown destinations, both for 2026/2027 delivery. 📊 Check out the China Soybean Purchase Tracker for the full picture.🚢 Export Inspections Mixed – Corn shipments dipped 7.7% week-over-week to 1.5mmt, while soybeans rose 9.3% to 348,850mt (though still down 18% YoY). 🌾 Wheat stood out with a 72% weekly jump to 394,785mt, up 36% from last year.🐄 Mexico Border Reopening Boosts Meatpackers—JBS and Tyson shares surged (+10% and +5.7%) after USDA announced a phased reopening of Mexican feeder cattle imports starting late August. 📉 Cattle futures tumbled in response, with many feeder contracts hitting daily limit-down.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 Grains Sell Off Hard — Wheat, corn, and soybeans all dropped sharply to start the week after wheat posted downside reversals Friday. Ukraine is pushing new ship-safety measures with Russia and has called a UN Security Council meeting over attacks on grain vessels.🛢️ Mideast Tensions Ease, Oil Slides—The US and Iran paused military strikes over the weekend, sending WTI crude more than $6/bbl lower this morning even though it's still up ~15% over two weeks. That pressure is rippling across the whole commodity complex.🔥 Heat Dome Locks In Over the Corn Belt — A stationary heat dome is pushing temps 10-15°F above normal with brutal humidity across the Plains and Corn Belt this week. A brief cooldown may show up later this week, and a shift toward rain in the forecast likely helped trigger this morning's selloff.💰 House Passes $12B Farm Aid Package — The $95B budget resolution squeaked through 216-214, pairing farm aid with $73B in defense/Iran-war spending. Farm groups are cheering the aid, but the Senate still has to pass its own version before anything's final.📊 Funds Pile Into Corn & Beans — The latest COT data shows managed money net buying 45k corn and 55k soybean contracts, pushing both net-long positions to their highest since early June. Wheat saw smaller buying too, with funds adding 16k SRW contracts.🐄 Mexican Cattle Imports Set to Resume — The Douglas, AZ border crossing reopens to Mexican cattle August 24, with more ports to follow, after being closed since November 2024 over screwworm concerns. Disinfectant dip vats will screen all incoming cattle as the closest active case sits 325 miles away.📈 Cattle Reports: Mostly Neutral — Friday's Cattle on Feed numbers landed right in line with expectations, so traders shrugged it off. The Cattle Inventory report was more mixed—a shrinking beef cow herd is bullish, but more replacement heifers lean neutral-to-bearish.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🛢️ Oil prices surged Thursday, with WTI crude jumping 6.2% to $92.19/barrel after Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea raised concerns about global oil supplies. Higher crude prices are also pushing fuel costs higher, with the national average gasoline price climbing to $4.09/gallon. ⛽ 🌽 Grain markets were mixed. Soybeans extended their rally, with November 2026 futures gaining about 5 cents on support from rising crude oil prices and forecasts for hotter Corn Belt weather next week. Corn added about 3 cents, while wheat turned lower after early gains as traders took profits despite ongoing Black Sea shipping disruptions. 📈 🚢 USDA announced a flash sale of 126,000 metric tons (5 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2026/27 marketing year. 🌦️ Drought conditions worsened across parts of the Corn Belt and Northern Plains as hot, dry weather persisted. Conditions improved in Kentucky, but drought expanded in the Dakotas, northern Illinois, southeastern Minnesota, and southeastern Nebraska. South Dakota even declared a statewide drought emergency. Current drought coverage includes 20% of corn, 18% of soybeans, 47% of winter wheat, 25% of spring wheat, and 44% of U.S. cattle. 🌾 🌾 North Dakota's spring wheat crop is coming in below USDA expectations. Crop tour scouts estimate yields at 48 bpa, well below the USDA's 58 bpa forecast. While dry weather has reduced disease pressure, prolonged heat and limited rainfall have trimmed yield potential, and additional heat could lower yields further before harvest. 📊 Weekly export sales disappointed again. Corn sales totaled 13 million bushels, soybeans 2 million bushels, and wheat 11 million bushels, with all three commodities landing at or below trade expectations. Mexico was the top buyer of corn and wheat, while China was the largest soybean buyer.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🚢 Russia restricts Novorossiysk port traffic — Russia has imposed overnight shipping restrictions (midnight–5am) at Novorossiysk, its largest grain export port, due to rising drone attack threats. Grain rerouted from the Sea of Azov is making the port even more critical, though daytime operations continue normally.🌾 Wheat futures surge on Black Sea tensions — Chicago wheat jumped ~28 cents to $7.06/bu and KC wheat gained ~31 cents to $7.64/bu as Russian strikes hit Odesa region ports and infrastructure. Corn and soybeans also climbed on looming Corn Belt heat and rising freight insurance costs.🇪🇺 EU grain production set to plunge—European grain output is projected to fall over 9% from last year, the steepest drop in two decades, as heat waves crush wheat and corn yields. Higher fertilizer/fuel costs from the US-Iran war pushed farmers to cut inputs and acreage, sending Paris wheat futures up ~20% this month.🌱 ND wheat tour wraps up—Southern ND spring wheat scouted at 46 bpa (below last year's 50 but above the 5-yr average), while northwest/north-central areas came in stronger at 48 bpa. Acreage hit its lowest since 1969, with scouts surveying the fewest fields on record.🛢️ Houthi attacks rattle oil markets — Yemen's Houthis claimed responsibility for strikes on two Red Sea oil tankers, sending WTI up ~3% to near $87/barrel. Trump threatened Iranian infrastructure if Strait of Hormuz attacks continue, and Iran vowed retaliation against US-linked energy facilities.📊 CME downplays perpetual futures demand — CEO Terry Duffy said institutional clients (94% of volume) show little interest in never-expiring contracts, even as Kalshi pursues its own perpetual futures for precious metals. Duffy argued perps suit retail more than institutional hedging needs.⛽ Ethanol production ticks up—weekly output rose to 1.09M bpd, up 5.2% week-over-week, while stocks grew to 24.48M barrels. Corn Belt margins stayed strong, running 10–35 cents positive per Reuters data.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Iowa Weather & Crops — Warm, dry conditions gave Iowa farmers 6.7 days suitable for fieldwork last week, pushing corn and soybeans through key growth stages, though dry soil is becoming a concern as corn enters pollination. 🌧️ A more active pattern with widespread rain chances is on tap for the Corn Belt this week, though the GFS turned notably drier (and warmer) overnight vs. yesterday's run.🌾 Wheat Rallies on Black Sea Tensions — Chicago wheat jumped ~9 cents to $7.33/bu and KC wheat gained 4 cents to $6.78/bu after Russia banned vessels from anchoring at two Sea of Azov ports. 🚢 Analysts already slashed Russia's July export forecast 25%, while ongoing strikes on Ukraine's Black Sea ports have cut its export capacity by roughly a third.🇺🇸 Grassley Pushes Market Solutions — Senator Grassley says farmers need stronger markets over more government payments, backing year-round E15 as a bigger long-term fix than the proposed $11B aid package. 💰 He's also renewing calls to cut production costs, pointing to his Fertilizer Research Act and pressing the Trump administration on why Brazil's costs run so much lower.📉 Sovecon Cuts Russian Wheat Forecast — Sovecon trimmed its 2026 Russian wheat estimate to 88.3mmt from 88.9mmt on weak southern yields, down from last season's 91.4mmt crop. ⚔️ The downgrade lands right as Black Sea shipping tensions heat back up.🥇 Kalshi Eyes Metals Perpetuals — Kalshi has asked the CFTC to approve perpetual futures on gold, silver, and platinum, building on its May approval for crypto perps. ⚖️ CME is, meanwhile, suing over whether these "perpetual futures" are really just unregulated swaps, with Kalshi's bitcoin perp alone moving $31.5B in 24 hr volume.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Soybeans surged to a two-month high near $12.26/bu as hot, dry Corn Belt weather and fresh Chinese buying fueled the rally. 🇨🇳 Renewed Chinese purchases appear to be the bigger driver, with US weather concerns playing a secondary role.🌽 Corn futures added nearly 6 cents to settle around $4.73/bu, supported by weather worries even as a cooler forecast may cap further gains. 📦 USDA also confirmed fresh flash sales, including soybeans to China and unknown destinations plus corn to Colombia for 2026/2027 delivery.🌾 Russian wheat export prices jumped 3% as Ukrainian drone attacks disrupted Black Sea shipping and cut July export forecasts by 25%. ⚓ Added tension in the Strait of Hormuz and a slower Russian harvest pace are compounding uncertainty over global wheat supplies.📊 US corn conditions slipped slightly to 67% good-to-excellent while soybeans improved to 66%, both still running above their five-year averages. 🌤️ Spring wheat ratings fell to 53% good-to-excellent, but winter wheat harvest progress jumped to 74% complete, ahead of the average pace.⛽ Gas and diesel prices keep climbing as the US-Iran conflict escalates, with regular gas now averaging $4.00/gallon and diesel at $5.11/gallon. 🛢️ WTI crude is up roughly 20% this month to $83.23/barrel, driven by shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.🚢 Corn export inspections stayed strong at 1.5mmt, up 57% year-over-year, while soybean and wheat shipments both came in below expectations. 🇨🇳 China made up about 22% of last week's export inspections.🇨🇦 The Trump administration plans a 50% tariff on select Canadian imports starting August 19, covering dairy, alcohol, and cement—even USMCA-exempt goods. 🤝 Canada is downplaying the threat as familiar posturing, while Mexico remains the top buyer of US corn amid the shifting trade landscape.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾⚔️ Black Sea Grain War Escalates — Ukraine's strikes on Russian shipping and Russia's relentless attacks on Ukrainian ports have wiped out roughly a third of Ukraine's Black Sea export capacity. Wheat futures are exploding higher, with a deadly strike on a corn-carrying cargo ship near Odesa adding fuel to the fire. 📈🚢🇨🇳🌱 China Keeps Buying US Beans — The USDA confirmed fresh flash sales Friday, including 340,000mt to China, 256,634mt to Mexico, and 110,000mt to unknown destinations, all for the 2026/2027 marketing year. Chatter suggests more Chinese purchases could drop this week, while US corn sales to China remain a no-show. 🛳️💰🚜💸 Iowa Farmers Feel the Squeeze — A new report shows Iowa's ag economy shrank 53% from 2022-2024 as corn and soybean production costs surged 37% and 36%. Nearly 1 in 5 Iowa farms are now financially vulnerable, even with strong land values and record cattle profits cushioning the blow. 📉🌽📊 Funds Flip More Bullish — The latest CoT report shows big money managers snapping up 26k corn, 6k soybean, and 26k SRW wheat contracts last week. Corn's net long hit its highest since early June, while wheat's net short shrank to its smallest since late May. 💹🐂🔥🛢️ US-Iran Conflict Boils Over — A deadly weekend exchange pushed the US military death toll to 17, with strikes now hitting civilian infrastructure like ports and bridges. Iran has scrapped the interim peace deal and is threatening to choke off oil, gas, and fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. ⚓🚨

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇺🇸🇧🇷 U.S.-Brazil Trade Tensions Escalate🚨 The Trump administration announced 25% tariffs on many Brazilian imports, effective July 22, citing unfair trade practices. While beef, coffee, and energy products are exempt, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, and ethanol are not. A separate investigation could push tariffs on some Brazilian goods as high as 37.5%.🇧🇷 Brazil is weighing a response but is avoiding tariffs for now. Instead, it is considering measures such as suspending patent protections for pharmaceutical products and agricultural seeds. President Lula has not yet approved the plan, and both countries remain open to negotiations, though the trade dispute could escalate.🌽 Farm Financial Stress Continues📉 U.S. farmers are expected to post a sixth straight year of losses in 2027. The American Farm Bureau Federation projects $32 billion in losses across major row crops, with corn, soybean, and wheat margins all expected to remain below breakeven.💸 Weak crop prices and stubbornly high input costs—made worse by the recent U.S.-Iran conflict—continue to pressure farm profits. The Farm Bureau is urging Congress to provide additional financial assistance and advance long-term policies to strengthen the farm economy.🌦️ Drought Update🌧️ Heavy rain improved drought conditions across southern Kentucky, southern Illinois, and southeastern Missouri. However, dry weather allowed drought to expand in northern Missouri and northern Wisconsin.🔥 The High Plains saw above-normal temperatures, although rain improved conditions in parts of the Dakotas and western Nebraska. This week's intense heat across the Northern Plains is expected to worsen next week's drought outlook.Current drought coverage: 🌽 Corn: 19% 🌱 Soybeans: 18% 🌾 Winter Wheat: 48% 🌾 Spring Wheat: 24% 🐄 Cattle: 44%📉 Grain Markets Pull Back🌽 Corn and soybean futures ended lower Thursday as weak export sales and a wetter Corn Belt forecast pressured prices. 🌽 December 2026 corn: $4.64/bu (-6¢)  🫘 November 2026 soybeans: $11.95/bu (-7¢) 🌾 Wheat futures were mixed after Wednesday's rally. Ongoing attacks in Ukraine's Odesa port and the Sea of Azov continue to raise concerns about grain exports from Russia and Ukraine, which together account for about one-third of global wheat exports.🚢 Export Sales Disappoint📉 Corn export sales fell to a marketing-year low last week at 315,000 metric tons (12 million bushels)—well below expectations and sharply lower than recent weeks. Japan was the top buyer.🫘 Soybean sales totaled 188,300 metric tons (7 million bushels), near the low end of expectations. China was the largest buyer and purchased just over 1 million metric tons of new-crop U.S. soybeans, its biggest weekly purchase since January.🌾 Wheat sales also disappointed at 235,100 metric tons (9 million bushels), with Japan again leading purchases.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 Wheat futures rallied hard Wednesday as escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions rattled markets, with Chicago wheat closing near $6.77/bu and KC wheat hitting $7.20/bu—both the highest since mid-May. Ukraine has reportedly lost about a third of its grain export capacity after intensified Russian strikes on Black Sea ports, and strength spilled over into corn and soybeans too. 🚢💥🏛️ House Republicans rolled out a $95 billion spending package Wednesday, with $60 billion aimed at military spending and $12 billion earmarked for farm assistance to offset war-driven input costs. Critics are slamming the bill for lacking spending cuts, warning it could add $100+ billion to the national debt over the next decade. 💰📜🌽 Excessive heat is raising red flags for US corn yield potential as 34% of the crop hits the critical pollination stage. A heat dome parked over the Northern Plains is expected to shift south later this week, easing stress up north but keeping things hot across the central and southern Plains. ☀️🌡️🫘 NOPA's June crush data showed US soybean crushing jumped 2.7% from May to 214.34 million bushels—a record for the month and above all trade estimates. Meanwhile, soybean oil stocks sank to an 8-month low of 1.50 billion pounds as strong crush margins keep processors busy. 📊🛢️⛽ US ethanol production slipped to a 10-week low, down 4.8% week-over-week to 1.04 million barrels per day. Stocks climbed to 24.39 million barrels even as Corn Belt margins held modestly positive, ranging from 10 to 35 cents. 🌽🔋

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 Russia Reroutes Grain After Black Sea Attacks — Russia is shifting grain shipments away from the Sea of Azov following Ukrainian strikes that disrupted a route responsible for roughly a quarter of its grain exports. Wheat futures spiked to multi-week highs as traders weigh the risk of further Black Sea supply chain chaos! 📈🔥 Heat Wave Threatens South Dakota Spring Wheat — Triple-digit temps and warm overnight lows are stressing the state's spring wheat crop, especially in drier regions without last week's rainfall boost. With temps running nearly 6°F above normal and more heat on the way, grain fill and crop quality are on watch. 🌡️🌱🚢 Brazil Debuts Ethanol-Powered Cargo Ship — Brazil just launched its first ethanol-powered container vessel, setting sail for China and opening the door to a potential biofuel revolution in global shipping. If ethanol captures just 5% of the marine fuel market, corn demand could jump by 1.5 billion bushels—a massive opportunity for ag producers! ⛴️🌽💵 Inflation Cools More Than Expected in June — Annual inflation slowed to 3.5%, well below forecasts, while monthly prices posted their biggest drop in six years thanks to falling energy costs. The Fed is still expected to hike in September, but easing prices have softened the odds. 📉⚓ Strait of Hormuz Tensions Ripple Beyond Oil — Escalating US-Iran tensions threaten fertilizer, sulfur, aluminum, and helium supplies—not just crude. Trump has dropped his proposed 20% toll on Hormuz shipments after pushback from Gulf allies, opting instead for future investment deals. 🛢️⚠️

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🛢️ Oil prices spiked 9.4% to $78.14/barrel Monday as US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz reignited supply fears. Trump announced a US blockade to stop Iranian oil tankers, even as strait traffic had already dropped 52% week-over-week. 🚢🌾 Russian grain exports face new uncertainty after Sea of Azov shipping restrictions followed Ukrainian attacks on Russian vessels. The affected route handles roughly a quarter of Russia's grain exports, though no major disruptions have hit yet as harvest ramps up. ⚠️🌱 Soybean futures climbed Monday on hot, dry weather concerns across the Corn Belt, with Nov26 gaining 4 cents to close near $11.95/bushel. Corn followed suit on the same weather worries while wheat pulled back on profit-taking after Friday's Black Sea-driven rally. 🌽📊 US corn and soybean conditions ticked up slightly last week, with corn at 68% good-to-excellent and soybeans at 65%, both above their five-year averages. Winter wheat harvest also jumped to 67% complete, well ahead of the historical pace. ✅🇨🇳 China bought more US soybeans Monday, its fourth flash purchase in a week, pushing total purchases to nearly 4% of its 25mmt commitment. Cumulative new-crop purchases now stand at 1.072mmt, about 4.3% of the White House-outlined target. 🛒🚛 US corn export inspections came in strong at 1.5mmt, up 17% year-over-year despite a weekly dip. Soybean shipments rose sharply from last year while wheat shipments improved week-over-week but still trailed last year's pace. 📦

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Grain Markets Surge Overnight 🌾 Corn, soybean, and wheat futures opened sharply higher Sunday night on a combustible mix of weather worries and geopolitical shocks. ☀️ The US Corn Belt faces a dry, hot week ahead, adding fuel to the rally even as some early selling emerged this morning.⚔️ Black Sea Conflict Escalates 🚢 Ukraine and Russia traded attacks on key grain export regions, disrupting shipping through the Sea of Azov and prompting closures of the Don-Azov Channel and Kerch Strait. 🌾 Russia also struck Ukraine's major export ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Izmail, stoking fears over Black Sea grain flow.🇺🇸🇮🇷 Middle East Tensions Boil Over 🛢️ The US launched a third round of strikes on Iran over the weekend, triggering Iranian missile and drone retaliation against American allies. 🚫 Iran has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, and shipping traffic there was nearly nonexistent Sunday despite US claims it remains open.📊 USDA Report Shakes Up Stocks 📉 Friday's USDA update slashed 2026/27 corn ending stocks estimates well below expectations and projected the smallest US wheat harvest in 56 years. 🌱 Soybean stocks held steady but still missed trade estimates, while soybean production got a bump.💰 Funds Turn Bullish 📈 The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed large money managers net buying 52k corn, 31k soybean, and 7k SRW wheat contracts last week. 🐂 It's a clear signal that speculative money is leaning bullish across the grain complex.🇨🇳 China Keeps Buying US Soybeans 🛳️ USDA confirmed another 264,000mt soybean sale to China for 2026/2027 delivery, adding to last week's 736,000mt in flash sales. 🌱 The steady demand is a bright spot for US soybean exports.🖥️ AI Data Centers vs. Farmland 🚜 The booming AI data center industry is competing with agriculture for land, water, and power, sparking concern among farmers and ranchers. ⚖️ Roughly two dozen states are now weighing legislation to regulate or limit new data center development on farmland.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Corn & soybeans dipped Thursday as milder weather and wider Corn Belt rainfall eased crop stress — Dec26 corn closed near $4.52, Nov26 beans near $11.82🌾 Wheat bucked the trend, climbing on tighter US supply expectations🌡️ GFS and Euro models both flipped cooler for the 8-14 day outlook, adding to the selling pressure💧 Drought monitor update: improvement in NW/north-central Iowa, SE Minnesota, and SW Wisconsin; minor expansion in southern Illinois and NW Ohio🇨🇳 Fresh flash sales — 256,000mt of new crop soybeans sold, including more to China; total confirmed new crop China soybean sales now at 672,000mt (2.7% of the 25mmt target)📉 Corn export sales came in soft—down 23% week-over-week🛢️ Record US biofuel mandates are pulling in a wave of European biodiesel imports — first shipments since December 2024—as domestic plants struggle to keep upNo Snapshot video today—July WASDE is typically a quiet one, and I've got some prior commitments. Back to the regular lineup next week.📊 Charts, drought maps, and the China Soybean Purchase Tracker in the video.👍 Like, subscribe, and drop your yield/stocks predictions in the comments before the number drops!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 US farmers face a competitive disadvantage as a new NCGA study shows they pay significantly more than Brazilian farmers for corn and soybean inputs like seed, fungicides, and insecticides. NCGA is now pushing for greater price transparency to help level the playing field.🌾 Grain futures pulled back Wednesday as easing heat forecasts and profit-taking sent corn, soybeans, and wheat lower. Forecasts still call for warm, dry conditions ahead, but the worst of the heat dome is now expected to shift west.🇨🇳 China booked its largest US soybean purchase since November, buying 472,000mt for 2025/2026 and 2026/2027 delivery. Despite the renewed buying, US soybeans still face a pricing disadvantage due to China's added tariff and cheaper Brazilian supplies.💣 The US resumed military strikes on Iran, hitting 90 targets as President Trump warned of more action and a possible port blockade. Iran has vowed retaliation and threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, stoking fears over global oil supply.⛽ US ethanol production slipped last week to 1.09 million barrels per day, with stocks also declining. Corn Belt ethanol margins eased slightly but remain in positive territory.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Corn futures rallied to their highest close since early June as scorching heat threatens the Corn Belt. 📈 Renewed optimism over Chinese soybean demand also lifted beans and wheat higher.🔥 A brutal heat dome is building across the western US and will spread into the Northern Plains and Corn Belt through next week. 🌡️ Triple-digit temps are expected in the Dakotas, Wyoming, and Montana, with little relief in sight through early August.🛢️ Oil prices spiked after Iran attacked commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, with WTI jumping over 2.8% before extending gains after hours. ⚠️ Trump declared the Iran ceasefire "over" in fiery comments at the NATO summit in Ankara.📉 US farmer sentiment fell for a third straight month in June, with Purdue's Ag Economy Barometer dropping to 113. 💸 High input costs remain the top concern as confidence in the next five years continues to slide.🇨🇴 USDA confirmed a flash sale of 105,000mt of soybean cake and meal to Colombia. 🌱 The sale adds to recent bullish demand signals in the soy complex.🥩 Cattle groups are pushing the Trump administration to scrap a proposed tariff exemption for Brazilian beef. 🇧🇷 Brazilian beef imports have surged 41% this year, fueling tension over a possible 25% tariff and threats of retaliation.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 China Returns to US Soybeans: China's COFCO purchased 300,000mt of US soybeans Monday, its largest buy in months, with volume potentially reaching 600,000mt as more deals finalize. 📊 Despite the move, China has only committed to about 2% of the 25mmt annual target agreed to last fall.🤝 Xi-Trump Meeting on the Horizon: President Trump says Xi Jinping may visit Washington around September 24, coinciding with the UN General Assembly. 🏛️ The visit comes as the two nations navigate a fragile trade truce, with tariffs, Taiwan, and Middle East tensions still simmering in the background.📈 Grains Rally on Weather & Demand: Corn and soybean futures surged Monday, with Dec26 corn hitting its highest close since early June and Nov26 soybeans reaching their best level since late May. 🌧️🔥 The rally was fueled by scorching Corn Belt heat forecasts plus flooding in Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin, alongside renewed optimism over Chinese demand.💰 Funds Turn Bullish: The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed money managers net buying corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat for the week ending June 30. 📅 It marked the first time since late April that funds were net buyers of both corn and soybeans simultaneously.🌽 Crop Conditions Steady: US corn conditions held at 67% good-to-excellent, unchanged week-over-week but still below last year's pace. 🌾 Soybeans dipped slightly to 64% while winter wheat harvest raced ahead at 59% complete, well above the average pace.🔥 Record Overnight Heat Alert: CropProphet's data shows the June 29–July 4 stretch brought the warmest overnight temperatures on record for corn-producing regions since 1981. 🌡️ While daytime highs were merely top-4 historically, those scorching nighttime lows are now a key risk factor to watch as the crop develops through July.🚢 Export Shipments Mixed: Corn export inspections beat expectations at 1.6mmt, up 5% year-over-year, while soybean shipments jumped 32% versus last year with China driving half the volume. 📉 Wheat shipments disappointed, falling 66% week-over-week and 74% below last year's pace.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌧️ Heavy rain triggered major flooding across Iowa, with over 15 inches falling in central areas and I-35 shut down near Ames. More storms are on the way this week, though the recent extreme heat is expected to ease as the heat dome shifts west toward the Plains. 🌽📊 USDA's latest drought monitor showed improvement in the southern Corn Belt thanks to heavy rain, while drier conditions expanded drought in western Iowa and southern Minnesota. High Plains states like South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma also saw drought conditions ease. 🌾🇺🇸🇨🇳 The US and China have agreed in principle to cut tariffs on agricultural goods, potentially making US soybeans more competitive with Brazil. Traders remain cautious though, waiting for real sales rather than just diplomatic headlines. 🌱🛢️ OPEC+ is boosting oil production again as shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz recovers post-ceasefire. WTI crude sits near $68/bbl, down nearly 40% since its April peak amid glut concerns. ⛽📉 US corn and soybean export sales fell sharply last week, with soybean sales hitting a marketing-year low. Mexico led in corn and wheat purchases, while China topped the soybean buyers list. 🚢

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 USDA Fertilizer Investment – USDA is putting $500 million into expanding US fertilizer production, targeting nitrogen projects in Louisiana and Nebraska to cut import reliance. 💰 Don't expect relief at the farm gate anytime soon though — most projects are years from completion, and experts say it's still far short of what's needed for real self-sufficiency.🌾 Wheat, Corn & Soybeans Rally – Wheat futures extended gains for a second day after USDA pegged this year's harvested wheat acreage at just 32.1 million acres, the smallest since 1877! 📈 Corn and soybeans rode the bullish wave higher too, both notching back-to-back gains.🔥 Extreme Heat Hits the Corn Belt – Triple-digit heat indexes are scorching the Corn Belt and Plains, adding stress to corn and soybean crops in the driest spots. ⛈️ Some relief is on the way though, with scattered storms and slightly cooler temps expected next week.⛽ Ethanol Production Climbs – US ethanol output jumped to an eleven-week high, up 2.5% week-over-week and 3.3% year-over-year. 📊 Stocks rose too, and margins across the Corn Belt remain solidly positive.🛢️ Strait of Hormuz Oil Flows Rebound – Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are nearing pre-war levels, backed by US military support and alternative export routes. 🕊️ Trump says peace talks with Iran in Qatar are going well, which helped push oil prices lower.📱 Robinhood Launches 24/7 Futures in Europe – Robinhood is rolling out round-the-clock perpetual futures trading in Europe, covering gold, silver, crude oil, currencies, and ETFs with up to 10x leverage. ⚠️ Ag commodities aren't included yet, but the move fuels concerns that 24/7 trading could eventually reshape the grain markets too.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Corn futures rallied Tuesday after USDA pegged June 1 stocks at 5.3 billion bushels, below every trade estimate, while 2026 planted acreage came in at 95.34 million acres. The Dec26 contract gained 6 cents to close at $4.36/bushel, while soybean stocks and acreage came in above expectations and wheat acreage fell well short of forecasts.🌍 President Trump has temporarily suspended duties on Moroccan phosphate fertilizer for up to eight months to ease shortages tied to the US-Iran war. The DOJ continues investigating major fertilizer companies over antitrust concerns, even as the administration works to boost domestic production long-term.🔥 A brutal heat dome is gripping the Corn Belt and Plains, with heat index values hitting 100–110°F across Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri, Illinois, and Kansas. Crop stress is worst in the western Corn Belt and Plains, while livestock producers watch for heat stress in fat cattle.💵 The Brazilian Real posted its worst month of 2026 in June, falling about 2.7% on a stronger US dollar and rate expectations. Inflation worries, falling oil prices, and election uncertainty added pressure, though some analysts see room for a rebound.🌾 USDA reported a flash sale of 100,000mt of hard red spring wheat to Nigeria for the 2026/2027 marketing year. Total wheat sales remain down 17% versus last year.🥩 CME is launching new beef trim futures covering 50% and 90% lean beef trimmings starting July 20, pending approval. The contracts won't change cattle or beef supplies but aim to improve price risk management and transparency across the supply chain.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Corn & Soybean SelloffCorn futures tumbled Monday, with the Dec26 contract falling nearly 12 cents to close at $4.30/bushel as traders positioned ahead of today's USDA report. 📉 Soybeans dropped even harder, with Nov26 losing about 17 cents to settle at $11.39/bushel, while wheat also closed lower.🌡️ Heat Building Across the BeltOppressive heat and humidity will grip the Plains and Corn Belt through the week, pushing heat index values into the triple digits with overnight lows barely dipping below 80. 🔥 Extreme heat warnings are already up across the eastern Plains and Corn Belt, with the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes at greatest risk for record highs.📊 USDA Report DayUSDA releases its Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks reports this morning, with corn acreage expected to decline from March intentions while soybean acreage rises. 🧾 June 1 corn stocks are forecast up ~16% YoY, soybeans up ~4%, and wheat up 9% — our USDA Snapshot video drops within 15 minutes of the 11am CST release.🌱 Crop Conditions UpdateCorn and soybean conditions slipped slightly last week, with corn at 67% good-to-excellent and soybeans at 65%, both still above their five-year averages. 🌾 Spring wheat improved to 59% G/E, while winter wheat held steady at a weak 26% G/E with harvest now 48% complete.🚢 Export InspectionsCorn export inspections came in strong at 1.8mmt, up 22% week-over-week and 29% year-over-year. 🌊 Soybean inspections jumped 54% to 419,124mt with China taking 16% of the total, while wheat inspections fell 9.6% to 358,253mt.💰 Flash Sale AlertUSDA confirmed a flash sale of 136,000mt of soybeans to unknown destinations for 2026/2027 delivery. 🇨🇳 Stay tuned for more updates as the trading week unfolds!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌡️ A heat dome is building over the Plains and Corn Belt this week, pushing temps into the 90s and triple digits with heat index values up to 110°F and raising crop stress concerns. Storms along the dome's edge should bring rain to the Dakotas, Minnesota, and parts of Nebraska/Kansas before cooler, wetter conditions return by week's end.🌱 USDA finalized its Regenerative Feedstock Rule for the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, letting farmers using regenerative practices qualify corn and soybeans for lower-carbon biofuel premiums. Farm and biofuel groups praised the move, though farmers will earn premiums through ethanol plants rather than direct government payments.⚔️ US-Iran tensions flared again after US strikes on Iranian military targets followed Iran's attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, putting peace talks on hold even as US officials say negotiations remain on track. Trump warned of further military action if attacks continue, while WTI crude trades near $70/bbl amid the uncertainty.📊 Friday's CFTC report showed big money managers growing their corn net short to 75k contracts (largest since early February) and trimming soybean net longs to 37k (smallest since early February). Wheat saw modest selling too, with funds dumping 1k SRW contracts on the week.🌾 USDA drops its Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks report Tuesday morning, with corn acreage expected down and soybean acreage up versus March intentions. June 1 stocks are seen higher year-over-year across the board—corn +16%, soybeans +4%, and wheat +9%.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 SOYBEANS & GRAINS RALLY: Soybean futures surged Thursday, with Nov26 closing at $11.57/bu — the highest since early June 📈. Corn and wheat also gained, lifted by soybean oil strength, firmer crude, a weaker dollar, and heat worries across the Corn Belt 🌡️🌽.💰 FERTILIZER PRICES EASE: Retail fertilizer prices fell for a second straight week as the Strait of Hormuz reopens, with urea down 12% and UAN32 down 7% 📉. DAP and potash ticked up slightly, but officials warn it could take months for supply chains to fully normalize ⏳.📊 USDA REPORTS AHEAD: USDA drops its Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks reports Tuesday morning 🗞️. Traders expect lower corn acreage, higher soybean acreage, steady wheat acreage, and higher year-over-year stocks across the board 🌾.🌧️ DROUGHT MONITOR UPDATE: Rain improved conditions in Kentucky, northern Illinois, and northwest Iowa, dropping Corn Belt drought coverage to just 13% (from 36% earlier this year) ☔. The High Plains saw some relief too, but widespread dryness still grips much of the region 🏜️.🇮🇷 IRAN-US TENSIONS: Iran is pushing back on Trump's claim that unfrozen funds will be used to buy US ag goods, with the White House holding firm on its conditions 🚫. Tensions flared further after Iran allegedly attacked a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, raising doubts about the fragile US-Iran agreement ⚠️.🚢 EXPORT SALES MIXED: Corn export sales dropped sharply last week, down 36% from the prior week, with Mexico the top buyer 📦. Soybean sales jumped 50% above the four-week average on strong "unknown destination" demand, while wheat sales also rose nicely to start the new marketing year 🌍.⚖️ BAYER WINS BIG AT SCOTUS: The Supreme Court ruled 7-2 that Bayer can't be sued under state law for not putting a cancer warning on Roundup/glyphosate 🛡️. The decision could wipe out thousands of pending lawsuits and sent Bayer shares soaring as much as 20% 🚀.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 Farm Aid Boost 💰 Trump is requesting $11B+ in new farm aid on top of $30.5B already expected this year, including $10B for 2026 crop support and $1.1B for Southeast freeze losses. This would stack on top of the $12B Farmer Bridge Assistance Program already rolling out to producers.⛽ Year-Round E15 Push 🌽 The White House just made its first formal request for Congress to legalize year-round E15 ethanol sales, framing it as a way to ease gas prices amid Middle East tensions. Unlike the House bill that already passed, Trump's version strips out the controversial Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) provisions.🏭 Illinois Soybean Crush Plant 🌱 Incobrasa Industries opened a massive new 170,000 sq ft crush facility in Gilman, IL, doubling capacity and creating 40 new jobs while securing demand for 7,000 local farms. The plant even includes a 50-acre solar array to help power operations sustainably.📉 Grains Under Pressure 🌾 Corn and soybeans extended their losing streak Wednesday, with Dec26 corn near $4.35/bu and Nov26 soybeans at $11.35/bu, pressured by a stronger dollar and weak crude. Wheat also slid for a fourth straight session as bearish momentum builds across the complex.🛢️ Oil Prices Sink 📉 WTI crude tumbled nearly 4% to $70.34/barrel as Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizes post-ceasefire, even as Trump calls for a DOJ probe into oil companies over retail prices. Gas prices are already down nearly 60 cents/gallon over the past month, though they typically lag crude moves.🚢 Fertilizer Flows Rebound 🌍 Crop nutrient shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are surging back, with at least 16 vessels transiting since the Iran peace deal and volumes nearing pre-war levels. Urea prices are already easing as fears of prolonged disruption fade.⚗️ Ethanol Update 📊 US ethanol output dipped slightly last week to 1.09M barrels/day while stocks climbed to 24.59M barrels. Despite the soft production, Corn Belt margins remain strong, running 30–50 cents positive, per Reuters data.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌡️ A massive heat dome is set to roast the Plains and Corn Belt next week, pushing real-feel temps above 100°F across the Ohio, Mississippi, and Tennessee Valleys. It'll dry out soggy fields but deepen drought stress elsewhere, with stormy edges threatening localized flooding and crop damage too.🌱 Soybeans held steady Tuesday after two down sessions, with Nov26 parked at $11.42/bu. Corn slid for a third straight day to $4.37/bu on Dec26, even as fresh export demand offered some support.💰 Input costs are easing, but farmers say it's not enough. Wisconsin growers point to lingering strain from Iran-war-driven fertilizer and fuel spikes, with some relief now coming from US-Iran peace talks—though next year's fertilizer costs already loom large.🇨🇳 The US Soybean Export Council is leaning on quality to claw back Chinese demand lost to Brazil. Brazil now grabs over 60% of China's soybean imports versus just 23% for the US, a stark flip from a decade ago when both sat near 40%.⚓ Russian strikes on Ukrainian ports near Odesa could slash the country's grain exports by up to 30%. With Ukraine accounting for a meaningful slice of global wheat and corn trade, exports are already running about 12% behind last year's pace.⛽ E15 legislation cleared the House but faces a tougher Senate fight ahead. Minnesota farmer Tim Waibel says oil-industry opposition and an uncertain Senate timeline are the biggest hurdles, even as crop conditions back home look excellent.