Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇺🇸🇧🇷 U.S.-Brazil Trade Tensions Escalate🚨 The Trump administration announced 25% tariffs on many Brazilian imports, effective July 22, citing unfair trade practices. While beef, coffee, and energy products are exempt, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, and ethanol are not. A separate investigation could push tariffs on some Brazilian goods as high as 37.5%.🇧🇷 Brazil is weighing a response but is avoiding tariffs for now. Instead, it is considering measures such as suspending patent protections for pharmaceutical products and agricultural seeds. President Lula has not yet approved the plan, and both countries remain open to negotiations, though the trade dispute could escalate.🌽 Farm Financial Stress Continues📉 U.S. farmers are expected to post a sixth straight year of losses in 2027. The American Farm Bureau Federation projects $32 billion in losses across major row crops, with corn, soybean, and wheat margins all expected to remain below breakeven.💸 Weak crop prices and stubbornly high input costs—made worse by the recent U.S.-Iran conflict—continue to pressure farm profits. The Farm Bureau is urging Congress to provide additional financial assistance and advance long-term policies to strengthen the farm economy.🌦️ Drought Update🌧️ Heavy rain improved drought conditions across southern Kentucky, southern Illinois, and southeastern Missouri. However, dry weather allowed drought to expand in northern Missouri and northern Wisconsin.🔥 The High Plains saw above-normal temperatures, although rain improved conditions in parts of the Dakotas and western Nebraska. This week's intense heat across the Northern Plains is expected to worsen next week's drought outlook.Current drought coverage: 🌽 Corn: 19% 🌱 Soybeans: 18% 🌾 Winter Wheat: 48% 🌾 Spring Wheat: 24% 🐄 Cattle: 44%📉 Grain Markets Pull Back🌽 Corn and soybean futures ended lower Thursday as weak export sales and a wetter Corn Belt forecast pressured prices. 🌽 December 2026 corn: $4.64/bu (-6¢)  🫘 November 2026 soybeans: $11.95/bu (-7¢) 🌾 Wheat futures were mixed after Wednesday's rally. Ongoing attacks in Ukraine's Odesa port and the Sea of Azov continue to raise concerns about grain exports from Russia and Ukraine, which together account for about one-third of global wheat exports.🚢 Export Sales Disappoint📉 Corn export sales fell to a marketing-year low last week at 315,000 metric tons (12 million bushels)—well below expectations and sharply lower than recent weeks. Japan was the top buyer.🫘 Soybean sales totaled 188,300 metric tons (7 million bushels), near the low end of expectations. China was the largest buyer and purchased just over 1 million metric tons of new-crop U.S. soybeans, its biggest weekly purchase since January.🌾 Wheat sales also disappointed at 235,100 metric tons (9 million bushels), with Japan again leading purchases.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 Wheat futures rallied hard Wednesday as escalating Russia-Ukraine tensions rattled markets, with Chicago wheat closing near $6.77/bu and KC wheat hitting $7.20/bu—both the highest since mid-May. Ukraine has reportedly lost about a third of its grain export capacity after intensified Russian strikes on Black Sea ports, and strength spilled over into corn and soybeans too. 🚢💥🏛️ House Republicans rolled out a $95 billion spending package Wednesday, with $60 billion aimed at military spending and $12 billion earmarked for farm assistance to offset war-driven input costs. Critics are slamming the bill for lacking spending cuts, warning it could add $100+ billion to the national debt over the next decade. 💰📜🌽 Excessive heat is raising red flags for US corn yield potential as 34% of the crop hits the critical pollination stage. A heat dome parked over the Northern Plains is expected to shift south later this week, easing stress up north but keeping things hot across the central and southern Plains. ☀️🌡️🫘 NOPA's June crush data showed US soybean crushing jumped 2.7% from May to 214.34 million bushels—a record for the month and above all trade estimates. Meanwhile, soybean oil stocks sank to an 8-month low of 1.50 billion pounds as strong crush margins keep processors busy. 📊🛢️⛽ US ethanol production slipped to a 10-week low, down 4.8% week-over-week to 1.04 million barrels per day. Stocks climbed to 24.39 million barrels even as Corn Belt margins held modestly positive, ranging from 10 to 35 cents. 🌽🔋

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 Russia Reroutes Grain After Black Sea Attacks — Russia is shifting grain shipments away from the Sea of Azov following Ukrainian strikes that disrupted a route responsible for roughly a quarter of its grain exports. Wheat futures spiked to multi-week highs as traders weigh the risk of further Black Sea supply chain chaos! 📈🔥 Heat Wave Threatens South Dakota Spring Wheat — Triple-digit temps and warm overnight lows are stressing the state's spring wheat crop, especially in drier regions without last week's rainfall boost. With temps running nearly 6°F above normal and more heat on the way, grain fill and crop quality are on watch. 🌡️🌱🚢 Brazil Debuts Ethanol-Powered Cargo Ship — Brazil just launched its first ethanol-powered container vessel, setting sail for China and opening the door to a potential biofuel revolution in global shipping. If ethanol captures just 5% of the marine fuel market, corn demand could jump by 1.5 billion bushels—a massive opportunity for ag producers! ⛴️🌽💵 Inflation Cools More Than Expected in June — Annual inflation slowed to 3.5%, well below forecasts, while monthly prices posted their biggest drop in six years thanks to falling energy costs. The Fed is still expected to hike in September, but easing prices have softened the odds. 📉⚓ Strait of Hormuz Tensions Ripple Beyond Oil — Escalating US-Iran tensions threaten fertilizer, sulfur, aluminum, and helium supplies—not just crude. Trump has dropped his proposed 20% toll on Hormuz shipments after pushback from Gulf allies, opting instead for future investment deals. 🛢️⚠️

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🛢️ Oil prices spiked 9.4% to $78.14/barrel Monday as US-Iran tensions over the Strait of Hormuz reignited supply fears. Trump announced a US blockade to stop Iranian oil tankers, even as strait traffic had already dropped 52% week-over-week. 🚢🌾 Russian grain exports face new uncertainty after Sea of Azov shipping restrictions followed Ukrainian attacks on Russian vessels. The affected route handles roughly a quarter of Russia's grain exports, though no major disruptions have hit yet as harvest ramps up. ⚠️🌱 Soybean futures climbed Monday on hot, dry weather concerns across the Corn Belt, with Nov26 gaining 4 cents to close near $11.95/bushel. Corn followed suit on the same weather worries while wheat pulled back on profit-taking after Friday's Black Sea-driven rally. 🌽📊 US corn and soybean conditions ticked up slightly last week, with corn at 68% good-to-excellent and soybeans at 65%, both above their five-year averages. Winter wheat harvest also jumped to 67% complete, well ahead of the historical pace. ✅🇨🇳 China bought more US soybeans Monday, its fourth flash purchase in a week, pushing total purchases to nearly 4% of its 25mmt commitment. Cumulative new-crop purchases now stand at 1.072mmt, about 4.3% of the White House-outlined target. 🛒🚛 US corn export inspections came in strong at 1.5mmt, up 17% year-over-year despite a weekly dip. Soybean shipments rose sharply from last year while wheat shipments improved week-over-week but still trailed last year's pace. 📦

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Grain Markets Surge Overnight 🌾 Corn, soybean, and wheat futures opened sharply higher Sunday night on a combustible mix of weather worries and geopolitical shocks. ☀️ The US Corn Belt faces a dry, hot week ahead, adding fuel to the rally even as some early selling emerged this morning.⚔️ Black Sea Conflict Escalates 🚢 Ukraine and Russia traded attacks on key grain export regions, disrupting shipping through the Sea of Azov and prompting closures of the Don-Azov Channel and Kerch Strait. 🌾 Russia also struck Ukraine's major export ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Izmail, stoking fears over Black Sea grain flow.🇺🇸🇮🇷 Middle East Tensions Boil Over 🛢️ The US launched a third round of strikes on Iran over the weekend, triggering Iranian missile and drone retaliation against American allies. 🚫 Iran has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, and shipping traffic there was nearly nonexistent Sunday despite US claims it remains open.📊 USDA Report Shakes Up Stocks 📉 Friday's USDA update slashed 2026/27 corn ending stocks estimates well below expectations and projected the smallest US wheat harvest in 56 years. 🌱 Soybean stocks held steady but still missed trade estimates, while soybean production got a bump.💰 Funds Turn Bullish 📈 The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed large money managers net buying 52k corn, 31k soybean, and 7k SRW wheat contracts last week. 🐂 It's a clear signal that speculative money is leaning bullish across the grain complex.🇨🇳 China Keeps Buying US Soybeans 🛳️ USDA confirmed another 264,000mt soybean sale to China for 2026/2027 delivery, adding to last week's 736,000mt in flash sales. 🌱 The steady demand is a bright spot for US soybean exports.🖥️ AI Data Centers vs. Farmland 🚜 The booming AI data center industry is competing with agriculture for land, water, and power, sparking concern among farmers and ranchers. ⚖️ Roughly two dozen states are now weighing legislation to regulate or limit new data center development on farmland.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Corn & soybeans dipped Thursday as milder weather and wider Corn Belt rainfall eased crop stress — Dec26 corn closed near $4.52, Nov26 beans near $11.82🌾 Wheat bucked the trend, climbing on tighter US supply expectations🌡️ GFS and Euro models both flipped cooler for the 8-14 day outlook, adding to the selling pressure💧 Drought monitor update: improvement in NW/north-central Iowa, SE Minnesota, and SW Wisconsin; minor expansion in southern Illinois and NW Ohio🇨🇳 Fresh flash sales — 256,000mt of new crop soybeans sold, including more to China; total confirmed new crop China soybean sales now at 672,000mt (2.7% of the 25mmt target)📉 Corn export sales came in soft—down 23% week-over-week🛢️ Record US biofuel mandates are pulling in a wave of European biodiesel imports — first shipments since December 2024—as domestic plants struggle to keep upNo Snapshot video today—July WASDE is typically a quiet one, and I've got some prior commitments. Back to the regular lineup next week.📊 Charts, drought maps, and the China Soybean Purchase Tracker in the video.👍 Like, subscribe, and drop your yield/stocks predictions in the comments before the number drops!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 US farmers face a competitive disadvantage as a new NCGA study shows they pay significantly more than Brazilian farmers for corn and soybean inputs like seed, fungicides, and insecticides. NCGA is now pushing for greater price transparency to help level the playing field.🌾 Grain futures pulled back Wednesday as easing heat forecasts and profit-taking sent corn, soybeans, and wheat lower. Forecasts still call for warm, dry conditions ahead, but the worst of the heat dome is now expected to shift west.🇨🇳 China booked its largest US soybean purchase since November, buying 472,000mt for 2025/2026 and 2026/2027 delivery. Despite the renewed buying, US soybeans still face a pricing disadvantage due to China's added tariff and cheaper Brazilian supplies.💣 The US resumed military strikes on Iran, hitting 90 targets as President Trump warned of more action and a possible port blockade. Iran has vowed retaliation and threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, stoking fears over global oil supply.⛽ US ethanol production slipped last week to 1.09 million barrels per day, with stocks also declining. Corn Belt ethanol margins eased slightly but remain in positive territory.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Corn futures rallied to their highest close since early June as scorching heat threatens the Corn Belt. 📈 Renewed optimism over Chinese soybean demand also lifted beans and wheat higher.🔥 A brutal heat dome is building across the western US and will spread into the Northern Plains and Corn Belt through next week. 🌡️ Triple-digit temps are expected in the Dakotas, Wyoming, and Montana, with little relief in sight through early August.🛢️ Oil prices spiked after Iran attacked commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, with WTI jumping over 2.8% before extending gains after hours. ⚠️ Trump declared the Iran ceasefire "over" in fiery comments at the NATO summit in Ankara.📉 US farmer sentiment fell for a third straight month in June, with Purdue's Ag Economy Barometer dropping to 113. 💸 High input costs remain the top concern as confidence in the next five years continues to slide.🇨🇴 USDA confirmed a flash sale of 105,000mt of soybean cake and meal to Colombia. 🌱 The sale adds to recent bullish demand signals in the soy complex.🥩 Cattle groups are pushing the Trump administration to scrap a proposed tariff exemption for Brazilian beef. 🇧🇷 Brazilian beef imports have surged 41% this year, fueling tension over a possible 25% tariff and threats of retaliation.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 China Returns to US Soybeans: China's COFCO purchased 300,000mt of US soybeans Monday, its largest buy in months, with volume potentially reaching 600,000mt as more deals finalize. 📊 Despite the move, China has only committed to about 2% of the 25mmt annual target agreed to last fall.🤝 Xi-Trump Meeting on the Horizon: President Trump says Xi Jinping may visit Washington around September 24, coinciding with the UN General Assembly. 🏛️ The visit comes as the two nations navigate a fragile trade truce, with tariffs, Taiwan, and Middle East tensions still simmering in the background.📈 Grains Rally on Weather & Demand: Corn and soybean futures surged Monday, with Dec26 corn hitting its highest close since early June and Nov26 soybeans reaching their best level since late May. 🌧️🔥 The rally was fueled by scorching Corn Belt heat forecasts plus flooding in Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin, alongside renewed optimism over Chinese demand.💰 Funds Turn Bullish: The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed money managers net buying corn, soybeans, and SRW wheat for the week ending June 30. 📅 It marked the first time since late April that funds were net buyers of both corn and soybeans simultaneously.🌽 Crop Conditions Steady: US corn conditions held at 67% good-to-excellent, unchanged week-over-week but still below last year's pace. 🌾 Soybeans dipped slightly to 64% while winter wheat harvest raced ahead at 59% complete, well above the average pace.🔥 Record Overnight Heat Alert: CropProphet's data shows the June 29–July 4 stretch brought the warmest overnight temperatures on record for corn-producing regions since 1981. 🌡️ While daytime highs were merely top-4 historically, those scorching nighttime lows are now a key risk factor to watch as the crop develops through July.🚢 Export Shipments Mixed: Corn export inspections beat expectations at 1.6mmt, up 5% year-over-year, while soybean shipments jumped 32% versus last year with China driving half the volume. 📉 Wheat shipments disappointed, falling 66% week-over-week and 74% below last year's pace.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌧️ Heavy rain triggered major flooding across Iowa, with over 15 inches falling in central areas and I-35 shut down near Ames. More storms are on the way this week, though the recent extreme heat is expected to ease as the heat dome shifts west toward the Plains. 🌽📊 USDA's latest drought monitor showed improvement in the southern Corn Belt thanks to heavy rain, while drier conditions expanded drought in western Iowa and southern Minnesota. High Plains states like South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, and Oklahoma also saw drought conditions ease. 🌾🇺🇸🇨🇳 The US and China have agreed in principle to cut tariffs on agricultural goods, potentially making US soybeans more competitive with Brazil. Traders remain cautious though, waiting for real sales rather than just diplomatic headlines. 🌱🛢️ OPEC+ is boosting oil production again as shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz recovers post-ceasefire. WTI crude sits near $68/bbl, down nearly 40% since its April peak amid glut concerns. ⛽📉 US corn and soybean export sales fell sharply last week, with soybean sales hitting a marketing-year low. Mexico led in corn and wheat purchases, while China topped the soybean buyers list. 🚢

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 USDA Fertilizer Investment – USDA is putting $500 million into expanding US fertilizer production, targeting nitrogen projects in Louisiana and Nebraska to cut import reliance. 💰 Don't expect relief at the farm gate anytime soon though — most projects are years from completion, and experts say it's still far short of what's needed for real self-sufficiency.🌾 Wheat, Corn & Soybeans Rally – Wheat futures extended gains for a second day after USDA pegged this year's harvested wheat acreage at just 32.1 million acres, the smallest since 1877! 📈 Corn and soybeans rode the bullish wave higher too, both notching back-to-back gains.🔥 Extreme Heat Hits the Corn Belt – Triple-digit heat indexes are scorching the Corn Belt and Plains, adding stress to corn and soybean crops in the driest spots. ⛈️ Some relief is on the way though, with scattered storms and slightly cooler temps expected next week.⛽ Ethanol Production Climbs – US ethanol output jumped to an eleven-week high, up 2.5% week-over-week and 3.3% year-over-year. 📊 Stocks rose too, and margins across the Corn Belt remain solidly positive.🛢️ Strait of Hormuz Oil Flows Rebound – Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are nearing pre-war levels, backed by US military support and alternative export routes. 🕊️ Trump says peace talks with Iran in Qatar are going well, which helped push oil prices lower.📱 Robinhood Launches 24/7 Futures in Europe – Robinhood is rolling out round-the-clock perpetual futures trading in Europe, covering gold, silver, crude oil, currencies, and ETFs with up to 10x leverage. ⚠️ Ag commodities aren't included yet, but the move fuels concerns that 24/7 trading could eventually reshape the grain markets too.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Corn futures rallied Tuesday after USDA pegged June 1 stocks at 5.3 billion bushels, below every trade estimate, while 2026 planted acreage came in at 95.34 million acres. The Dec26 contract gained 6 cents to close at $4.36/bushel, while soybean stocks and acreage came in above expectations and wheat acreage fell well short of forecasts.🌍 President Trump has temporarily suspended duties on Moroccan phosphate fertilizer for up to eight months to ease shortages tied to the US-Iran war. The DOJ continues investigating major fertilizer companies over antitrust concerns, even as the administration works to boost domestic production long-term.🔥 A brutal heat dome is gripping the Corn Belt and Plains, with heat index values hitting 100–110°F across Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri, Illinois, and Kansas. Crop stress is worst in the western Corn Belt and Plains, while livestock producers watch for heat stress in fat cattle.💵 The Brazilian Real posted its worst month of 2026 in June, falling about 2.7% on a stronger US dollar and rate expectations. Inflation worries, falling oil prices, and election uncertainty added pressure, though some analysts see room for a rebound.🌾 USDA reported a flash sale of 100,000mt of hard red spring wheat to Nigeria for the 2026/2027 marketing year. Total wheat sales remain down 17% versus last year.🥩 CME is launching new beef trim futures covering 50% and 90% lean beef trimmings starting July 20, pending approval. The contracts won't change cattle or beef supplies but aim to improve price risk management and transparency across the supply chain.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Corn & Soybean SelloffCorn futures tumbled Monday, with the Dec26 contract falling nearly 12 cents to close at $4.30/bushel as traders positioned ahead of today's USDA report. 📉 Soybeans dropped even harder, with Nov26 losing about 17 cents to settle at $11.39/bushel, while wheat also closed lower.🌡️ Heat Building Across the BeltOppressive heat and humidity will grip the Plains and Corn Belt through the week, pushing heat index values into the triple digits with overnight lows barely dipping below 80. 🔥 Extreme heat warnings are already up across the eastern Plains and Corn Belt, with the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes at greatest risk for record highs.📊 USDA Report DayUSDA releases its Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks reports this morning, with corn acreage expected to decline from March intentions while soybean acreage rises. 🧾 June 1 corn stocks are forecast up ~16% YoY, soybeans up ~4%, and wheat up 9% — our USDA Snapshot video drops within 15 minutes of the 11am CST release.🌱 Crop Conditions UpdateCorn and soybean conditions slipped slightly last week, with corn at 67% good-to-excellent and soybeans at 65%, both still above their five-year averages. 🌾 Spring wheat improved to 59% G/E, while winter wheat held steady at a weak 26% G/E with harvest now 48% complete.🚢 Export InspectionsCorn export inspections came in strong at 1.8mmt, up 22% week-over-week and 29% year-over-year. 🌊 Soybean inspections jumped 54% to 419,124mt with China taking 16% of the total, while wheat inspections fell 9.6% to 358,253mt.💰 Flash Sale AlertUSDA confirmed a flash sale of 136,000mt of soybeans to unknown destinations for 2026/2027 delivery. 🇨🇳 Stay tuned for more updates as the trading week unfolds!

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌡️ A heat dome is building over the Plains and Corn Belt this week, pushing temps into the 90s and triple digits with heat index values up to 110°F and raising crop stress concerns. Storms along the dome's edge should bring rain to the Dakotas, Minnesota, and parts of Nebraska/Kansas before cooler, wetter conditions return by week's end.🌱 USDA finalized its Regenerative Feedstock Rule for the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, letting farmers using regenerative practices qualify corn and soybeans for lower-carbon biofuel premiums. Farm and biofuel groups praised the move, though farmers will earn premiums through ethanol plants rather than direct government payments.⚔️ US-Iran tensions flared again after US strikes on Iranian military targets followed Iran's attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, putting peace talks on hold even as US officials say negotiations remain on track. Trump warned of further military action if attacks continue, while WTI crude trades near $70/bbl amid the uncertainty.📊 Friday's CFTC report showed big money managers growing their corn net short to 75k contracts (largest since early February) and trimming soybean net longs to 37k (smallest since early February). Wheat saw modest selling too, with funds dumping 1k SRW contracts on the week.🌾 USDA drops its Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks report Tuesday morning, with corn acreage expected down and soybean acreage up versus March intentions. June 1 stocks are seen higher year-over-year across the board—corn +16%, soybeans +4%, and wheat +9%.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 SOYBEANS & GRAINS RALLY: Soybean futures surged Thursday, with Nov26 closing at $11.57/bu — the highest since early June 📈. Corn and wheat also gained, lifted by soybean oil strength, firmer crude, a weaker dollar, and heat worries across the Corn Belt 🌡️🌽.💰 FERTILIZER PRICES EASE: Retail fertilizer prices fell for a second straight week as the Strait of Hormuz reopens, with urea down 12% and UAN32 down 7% 📉. DAP and potash ticked up slightly, but officials warn it could take months for supply chains to fully normalize ⏳.📊 USDA REPORTS AHEAD: USDA drops its Planted Acreage and Grain Stocks reports Tuesday morning 🗞️. Traders expect lower corn acreage, higher soybean acreage, steady wheat acreage, and higher year-over-year stocks across the board 🌾.🌧️ DROUGHT MONITOR UPDATE: Rain improved conditions in Kentucky, northern Illinois, and northwest Iowa, dropping Corn Belt drought coverage to just 13% (from 36% earlier this year) ☔. The High Plains saw some relief too, but widespread dryness still grips much of the region 🏜️.🇮🇷 IRAN-US TENSIONS: Iran is pushing back on Trump's claim that unfrozen funds will be used to buy US ag goods, with the White House holding firm on its conditions 🚫. Tensions flared further after Iran allegedly attacked a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, raising doubts about the fragile US-Iran agreement ⚠️.🚢 EXPORT SALES MIXED: Corn export sales dropped sharply last week, down 36% from the prior week, with Mexico the top buyer 📦. Soybean sales jumped 50% above the four-week average on strong "unknown destination" demand, while wheat sales also rose nicely to start the new marketing year 🌍.⚖️ BAYER WINS BIG AT SCOTUS: The Supreme Court ruled 7-2 that Bayer can't be sued under state law for not putting a cancer warning on Roundup/glyphosate 🛡️. The decision could wipe out thousands of pending lawsuits and sent Bayer shares soaring as much as 20% 🚀.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 Farm Aid Boost 💰 Trump is requesting $11B+ in new farm aid on top of $30.5B already expected this year, including $10B for 2026 crop support and $1.1B for Southeast freeze losses. This would stack on top of the $12B Farmer Bridge Assistance Program already rolling out to producers.⛽ Year-Round E15 Push 🌽 The White House just made its first formal request for Congress to legalize year-round E15 ethanol sales, framing it as a way to ease gas prices amid Middle East tensions. Unlike the House bill that already passed, Trump's version strips out the controversial Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) provisions.🏭 Illinois Soybean Crush Plant 🌱 Incobrasa Industries opened a massive new 170,000 sq ft crush facility in Gilman, IL, doubling capacity and creating 40 new jobs while securing demand for 7,000 local farms. The plant even includes a 50-acre solar array to help power operations sustainably.📉 Grains Under Pressure 🌾 Corn and soybeans extended their losing streak Wednesday, with Dec26 corn near $4.35/bu and Nov26 soybeans at $11.35/bu, pressured by a stronger dollar and weak crude. Wheat also slid for a fourth straight session as bearish momentum builds across the complex.🛢️ Oil Prices Sink 📉 WTI crude tumbled nearly 4% to $70.34/barrel as Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizes post-ceasefire, even as Trump calls for a DOJ probe into oil companies over retail prices. Gas prices are already down nearly 60 cents/gallon over the past month, though they typically lag crude moves.🚢 Fertilizer Flows Rebound 🌍 Crop nutrient shipments through the Strait of Hormuz are surging back, with at least 16 vessels transiting since the Iran peace deal and volumes nearing pre-war levels. Urea prices are already easing as fears of prolonged disruption fade.⚗️ Ethanol Update 📊 US ethanol output dipped slightly last week to 1.09M barrels/day while stocks climbed to 24.59M barrels. Despite the soft production, Corn Belt margins remain strong, running 30–50 cents positive, per Reuters data.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌡️ A massive heat dome is set to roast the Plains and Corn Belt next week, pushing real-feel temps above 100°F across the Ohio, Mississippi, and Tennessee Valleys. It'll dry out soggy fields but deepen drought stress elsewhere, with stormy edges threatening localized flooding and crop damage too.🌱 Soybeans held steady Tuesday after two down sessions, with Nov26 parked at $11.42/bu. Corn slid for a third straight day to $4.37/bu on Dec26, even as fresh export demand offered some support.💰 Input costs are easing, but farmers say it's not enough. Wisconsin growers point to lingering strain from Iran-war-driven fertilizer and fuel spikes, with some relief now coming from US-Iran peace talks—though next year's fertilizer costs already loom large.🇨🇳 The US Soybean Export Council is leaning on quality to claw back Chinese demand lost to Brazil. Brazil now grabs over 60% of China's soybean imports versus just 23% for the US, a stark flip from a decade ago when both sat near 40%.⚓ Russian strikes on Ukrainian ports near Odesa could slash the country's grain exports by up to 30%. With Ukraine accounting for a meaningful slice of global wheat and corn trade, exports are already running about 12% behind last year's pace.⛽ E15 legislation cleared the House but faces a tougher Senate fight ahead. Minnesota farmer Tim Waibel says oil-industry opposition and an uncertain Senate timeline are the biggest hurdles, even as crop conditions back home look excellent.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇮🇷🌾 US-Iran talks could open the door to new ag demand, with Trump saying unfrozen Iranian funds would go toward purchases of US corn, soybeans, and wheat. Iran's negotiator claims a $12 billion unfreeze deal, though the US hasn't confirmed it, and recent Iranian crop demand has been minimal since a 2018 soybean buy.🛢️📉 Crude oil kept sliding, with WTI falling over 2% to settle near $75/barrel, its lowest since early March. Progress in US-Iran talks and reports of Iran getting approval to sell petroleum products pressured the market, with traders looking ahead to a potentially reopened Strait of Hormuz.🌽🌱 Corn and soybeans moved lower Monday, with Dec26 corn down ~4 cents to $4.40 and Nov26 soybeans down a penny to $11.42. Falling crude, a firmer dollar, and favorable Corn Belt conditions weighed on prices, though excess rain in some areas is raising minor concern.🌧️🚜 Weekend storms brought rain to Nebraska but also hail and wind damage in spots. Coverage was uneven across the state, and despite the moisture, much of Nebraska remains in drought with more rain and cooler temps expected this week.✅📊 Crop conditions held mostly steady, with corn at 68% good/excellent and soybeans at 66%, both above their averages. Winter wheat slipped to 26% good/excellent (well below average) while harvest is moving at its fastest pace since 2012.💰📑 The CFTC's COT report showed funds turning more bearish on corn and soybeans last week. Managed money grew its corn net short to 49k contracts (largest since early Feb) and cut soybean net longs to 54k (smallest since early Feb), while adding modestly to SRW wheat longs.🇧🇷🌱 Brazilian soybean acreage is set to hit a record high, per AgRural, up 0.9% to 121.09 million acres. It'd be the 20th straight annual increase but the smallest gain in two decades, as high input costs and tighter credit slow expansion.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 China made its first purchase of new-crop US soybeans, snapping up 132,000mt alongside additional flash sales of corn to Mexico and soybeans to unknown destinations. This comes after the White House announced China would buy 25mmt of US soybeans annually over the next 3 years.⚖️ CME has filed a lawsuit against the CFTC over its approval of Kalshi's perpetual futures, arguing the products should be regulated as swaps under Dodd-Frank rather than futures. CME shares have dropped ~9% since the approval as the new contracts have already generated over $5 billion in trading activity.🌧️ Widespread rain (and some flooding) improved drought conditions across much of the Corn Belt, with just 13% of the region now in drought versus 36% at the start of the year. The High Plains, however, remains largely dry and continues to struggle.🛢️ US-Iran peace talks made progress over the weekend with a 60-day roadmap and a new direct communication line, even as Iran claimed the Strait of Hormuz was closed again. CENTCOM says the strait remains open, and WTI crude is trading lower near $75/bbl despite the back-and-forth.🌾 Fertilizer prices are sliding as the Middle East war premium fades, with benchmark urea prices down ~50% from their April peak. Weak farmer demand and China's plan to resume exports are adding further pressure, though phosphate prices stay elevated on a sulfur shortage.📦 Corn export sales rose 16% week-over-week with Spain as the top buyer, while soybean sales beat expectations at 424,900mt behind strong Egyptian demand. New-crop wheat sales came in softer, down 40% from the prior week, with Japan leading purchases.🐄 Friday's Cattle on Feed report was largely neutral, with on-feed totals up 2% year-over-year even as placements and marketings ran below last year's levels. The bigger story remains the historically low US cattle herd, setting up for tighter supplies until rebuilding eventually kicks in.

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG🌽📉 A new report warns the US could lose around 30 million corn acres by 2050. Weak feed demand and an ethanol blend rate stuck at 10% are largely to blame.⛽🚗 If the ethanol blend rate doesn't increase, the US stands to lose 6.6 billion gallons of ethanol demand by 2050 as overall gasoline use declines. The Senate is now preparing to vote on E15 legislation after the House narrowly passed a similar bill in May.📊🌾 S&P Global Energy completed the study, and one US farmer summed it up simply: too much supply chasing too little demand. See graphics from the report below, and click the link to view the full report.🌪️⚠️ Severe weather moved through parts of the Midwest last night, with tornadoes confirmed near Harpers Ferry, IA and Charleston, IL. Surrounding areas also experienced heavy winds and hail.🌧️🗺️ A band stretching from central Iowa through central Illinois and into Indiana picked up 1"–3" of rain in the 24 hours ended at midnight. See rain maps below.🫘🦠 Excessive rainfall across the Midwest and Delta has led to soybean disease pressure, including Rhizoctonia and Pythium. Parts of Missouri, Arkansas, Indiana, Tennessee, and other states have seen over 8" of rain in the last 30 days.📈🌾 Grain markets finished higher on Wednesday, with wheat futures leading the charge. The Jul26 HRW contract gained nearly 19 cents to close near $6.53/bu, while Dec26 corn gained more than 6 cents to close near $4.49/bu.🇨🇳🫘 Rumors of Chinese interest in US grains helped support Wednesday's rally. USDA confirmed a flash sale of 372,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations, which many see as a possible confirmation of that Chinese demand.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Soybeans lead on China optimism Soybean futures rallied Tuesday, with Nov ’26 up ~12¢ to ~$11.47 (two-week high) amid rumors China may return to the U.S. market. Optimism was also fueled by a potential September visit from Xi Jinping to Washington. Corn futures were mixed, pressured by weaker crude and favorable weather, while Chicago wheat rose on short-covering and technical buying; Kansas City wheat slipped.🌎 USMCA talks add uncertainty to trade outlook U.S. and Mexican officials are meeting in Washington this week to negotiate the future of USMCA, focusing on agriculture and energy. Tensions rose after President Trump संकेत he may not renew the deal. Mexico and Canada accounted for $58.6B in U.S. ag exports in 2025 (over one-third of the total), making the outcome critical—especially as China remains an inconsistent buyer. Another round of talks is set for mid-July in Mexico City.🌧️ Weather mostly favorable, with storm risks The Corn Belt is expected to see widespread rainfall over the next 5–7 days, supporting crop development. However, heavier totals in parts of MO, IL, KY, IA, and IN could cause localized flooding. Severe storms are possible today (damaging winds, hail, tornado risk), while cooler-than-normal temps are expected over the next 6–10 days.⛽ Biofuels seen as key to demand growth A study from S&P Global Energy highlights ethanol demand as the primary driver of corn usage growth (≈83% since 2000). Expanding E15 nationwide is viewed as the easiest path to boost demand, though Senate resistance remains. Without stronger biofuel demand, the report warns of a long-term oversupply in U.S. agriculture.🌽 Acreage outlook edges higher S&P Global Commodity Insights raised its 2026 acreage forecasts: corn at 96M acres (+800K vs. prior) and soybeans at 85.3M (+300K). That compares to 95.2M corn and 83.4M soybean acres last year. USDA last pegged 2026 acreage at 95.3M (corn) and 84.7M (beans), with updated figures due June 30.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Crop Conditions & Harvest Progress US crop conditions improved modestly last week. Corn ratings rose to 68% good-to-excellent, while soybeans increased to 66%, both slightly above average. Spring wheat saw a stronger jump to 55%, now above normal levels. Winter wheat improved to 27%, though it remains historically weak for this time of year. Harvest is moving quickly, with 25% complete—well ahead of both last week and last year’s pace.📈 Markets Rally on Iran Deal Hopes Equity markets surged Monday on news of a preliminary US-Iran peace deal. The Dow hit a record high (+0.9%), while the S&P 500 (+1.7%) and Nasdaq (+3.1%) posted strong gains. Optimism around easing inflation and lower interest rate pressure drove the rally. Crude oil fell 4.8% to $80.75, though prices remain significantly higher year-over-year. Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon, lingering uncertainty and congestion could delay a full return to normal shipping.🚢 Fertilizer Shipments Still Constrained Fertilizer logistics remain tight despite the potential reopening of the Strait. Shipowners are cautious, and fertilizer cargo is being deprioritized behind energy shipments. A backlog of vessels—including 40+ fertilizer ships—continues to clog the route, with flows still down roughly 90% since the conflict began. While prices have eased مؤخراً, US fertilizer costs remain elevated versus last year.🛢️ NOPA Crush Mixed but Historically Strong NOPA reported a May soybean crush of 208.8 million bushels—down slightly from April but still a record for the month and up 8.3% year-over-year. The decline was tied to seasonal maintenance downtime. Soybean oil stocks dropped sharply to 1.74 billion pounds, a five-month low and below expectations, signaling tighter near-term supply.🚢 Export Demand Remains Solid US corn export inspections fell to 1.6 mmt but remain robust overall. Soybean shipments were strong at 522,687 mt, up sharply week-over-week and more than doubling last year’s pace, though China accounted for just 26%. Wheat exports disappointed at 334,292 mt, trailing expectations and running below last year.🐛 Screwworm Outbreak Expands, Supports Cattle The New World screwworm outbreak has spread into west-central Texas, with cases now confirmed across multiple counties and species. Containment challenges persist due to limited sterile fly production, raising concern about further spread. The situation is indirectly supporting cattle prices, as movement restrictions tighten already constrained supply.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌍 Geopolitics 🤝 The U.S. and Iran reached a tentative deal to end the war. The agreement includes releasing $25B in assets and lifting oil sanctions, while Iran commits to no nuclear weapons. 🚢 Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, and the U.S. will lift its naval blockade. More details are expected in follow-up talks, with the deal set to be signed Friday.🌽 Grain Markets 🟡 Soybeans slipped (Nov ’26: $11.32, -2¢) under pressure from good weather and weaker crude. 🌽 Corn rebounded late (Dec ’26: ~$4.40, +1¢) but still faces headwinds from energy markets, favorable weather, and big South American crop expectations. 🌾 Wheat also moved lower on ample global supplies.🌦️ Weather ⛈️ Severe storms swept the Corn Belt over the weekend, bringing heavy rain, damaging winds, and tornadoes. Some areas saw flooding. 🌡️ Temps stay above normal this week (not extreme), with more scattered rain ahead—heaviest in central and eastern areas. Overall tone remains bearish for grains.📊 Funds (CFTC) 🐻 Funds turned net short corn (sold 121k contracts), the largest sell-off since May ’25. 🌱 Soybean longs shrank (sold 58k), now the smallest since February. 🌾 Wheat also saw selling (23k contracts).🥩 Cattle 🏭 JBS is closing plants in Pennsylvania and Memphis, shifting cattle elsewhere. 🐄 With the herd at a 75-year low, tight supplies are driving record cattle prices and heavy packer losses. ⚖️ Short term: too much capacity vs. cattle. Long term: less capacity is negative for the industry.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 USDA Report: Nothing to Get Excited About The latest USDA report was largely as expected—minimal changes to U.S. stocks and only modest tweaks on demand. South American production was revised higher, keeping global corn supplies comfortable. Overall reaction: underwhelmed 😐📉 Grain Markets Slip Soybeans, corn, and wheat all moved lower. Favorable weather 🌦️, weak crude oil 🛢️, and ample supply expectations kept pressure on prices.🌧️ Weather: Mixed Bag Rain helped improve drought conditions across parts of the Corn Belt, but dryness worsened in northern Minnesota and remains widespread in the High Plains. Still a split story 🌦️➡️🌵🛢️ Oil Drops on Peace Hopes Crude fell over 2% as optimism builds around a potential end to the war, but uncertainty remains. Meanwhile, the prolonged conflict continues to fuel inflation pressures 📉➡️📈🚢 Export Snapshot Corn sales improved, soybeans disappointed, and wheat exceeded expectations. Notably, China is still absent from new-crop soybean buying, with a large share of sales sitting in “unknown” destinations 👀

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.📈 Inflation Hits 3-Year High — Consumer prices jumped 4.2% year over year in May, the largest annual gain since April 2023, driven largely by the energy shock from the Iran war. With inflation outpacing wages and the Fed expected to hold rates steady next week, traders are asking, could grains rally sharply like they did in 2021-2022 if inflation accelerates? ⛈️ Severe Weather Pounds the Corn Belt — Hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes swept across the region Wednesday, with the active pattern expected to persist through Friday and flooding risks mounting. Temperatures are forecast to moderate by the weekend, followed by below-normal readings next week. 🌱 Soybeans Snap Losing Streak — After eight straight sessions of declines, Nov26 soybeans rebounded ~7 cents to settle near $11.39, lifted by crude oil strength amid Middle East tensions. Dec26 corn edged ~2 cents higher to close near $4.47, while wheat posted modest gains across most contracts. 📊 USDA Report Day — The monthly Crop Production and WASDE report drops today at 11am CST, with traders expecting no significant changes to US or global ending stocks. Corn exports could be revised higher, while frustration over the lack of Chinese soybean purchases raises the possibility of a demand cut—though it may be too early for the USDA to act. ⛽ Ethanol Production Holds Steady — Weekly output came in at 1.1mil barrels per day, unchanged from the prior week, while stocks declined 1% to 24.45mil barrels. Margins remain strong across the Corn Belt, running 25 to 60 cents positive per Reuters data. 🥩 Beef prices keep climbing—ground beef hit $7.06/lb in May (+13% YoY), and steak surged to $12.80/lb (+16%) as the US cattle herd sits at its lowest level in over seven decades. With more than half of cattle country in drought, meaningful herd rebuilding is unlikely anytime soon — though analysts question how long demand can hold as inflation erodes purchasing power.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.⛈️ SEVERE WEATHER SLAMS THE PLAINS & CORN BELT 🌪️Powerful storms are sweeping from North Dakota to northern Texas with damaging winds, hail, and tornado threats before pushing east through the Corn Belt! Flood watches are up across KS, MO, IL, IN, KY, and TN, while heat advisories stretch from Minnesota to Texas. 🥵🌱 SOYBEANS SLIDE FOR 8TH STRAIGHT SESSION 📉Nov26 beans dropped another 4 cents to $11.32, the lowest since mid-March, pressured by friendly weather, sinking crude, and zero Chinese demand! Soybean oil strength limited the bleeding, while corn finished narrowly mixed and wheat closed mostly higher. 📊🛢️ OIL TUMBLES DESPITE MIDDLE EAST FIREWORKS 💥WTI crude crashed 3.4% to $88.20 even after Iran reportedly shot down a US Apache helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz! Traders shrugged off the escalation, focusing instead on Trump's claim that a US-Iran deal is just days away—plus rising oil exports through the waterway! 🚢🌽 USDA REPORT DAY IS COMING! 📋The monthly crop production and WASDE report drops Thursday at 11am CST, with traders expecting few changes to US or global ending stocks! Watch for a possible bump in corn exports and keep an eye on soybean demand as China's absence frustrates the trade. 👀🐛 SCREWWORM FIGHT INTENSIFIES AS CATTLE RALLY 🐂The USDA unveiled a new fly strain set to DOUBLE sterile fly production, though full capacity won't arrive until next summer as five new cases were confirmed in Texas and New Mexico! Cattle futures didn't flinch—live cattle surged up to $2.89/cwt, and feeders jumped $3.25/cwt—even as Mexico moved to halt most live US animal imports after the close! 💪

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Corn & Crops — US corn crop conditions held steady at 67% good-to-excellent, while soybeans dipped slightly to 65%. Spring wheat improved week-over-week, but winter wheat hit its lowest rating since records began in 1986.📈 Futures Markets — Corn and wheat futures saw modest rebounds on bargain buying after recent losses, with KC wheat leading gains up 9 cents. Soybeans fell for a seventh straight session, pressured by favorable weather and weak Chinese demand.🌧️ Weather — Parts of the Corn Belt received over 4 inches of rain in a short window, with active radar again this morning. Forecasts call for above-normal rainfall across corn areas in both the 1-7-day and 8-14-day outlooks.💊 Fertilizer Prices — New Orleans urea has dropped 36% from its mid-April peak to $453.50/ton, now at pre-war levels as US-Iran peace talks ease supply fears. Seasonal demand weakness and ample domestic supply are adding further downward pressure.🌍 Brazil vs. US Competition — Brazil's farming model is under strain as heavy reliance on imported fertilizer leaves growers far more exposed to the Iran-driven price shock. Many Brazilian farmers are now operating at a loss, potentially narrowing their long-standing cost advantage over US producers.🚢 Export Inspections & Flash Sales — Corn export inspections came in strong at 1.9 MMT, up 11% year-over-year, while soybeans and wheat lagged at the lower end of expectations. USDA also reported flash sales of 264,000 MT of soybeans to unknown destinations and 103,000 MT of corn to Japan.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Corn and soybean futures continued lower Friday, with December corn settling at $4.46/bu and November beans near $11.38/bu — both at multi-month lows. A stronger dollar, Wall Street weakness, favorable weather, and a lack of Chinese buying all weighed on prices.🌧️ Weekend rains provided solid coverage across much of the Corn Belt, with more widespread precipitation expected over the next 7 days. Temperatures will stay above normal near-term before cooling in the extended period.🇺🇸 President Trump visited Wisconsin Friday to address farmer concerns over rising input costs and limited market access. He expressed confidence that export conditions and overall farm economics will improve within the next three months.📊 The CFTC's Commitment of Traders report showed large money managers were heavy sellers across the grain complex for the week ending June 2. Funds have shed 225k corn contracts since early May, while also selling 28k beans and 38k SRW wheat contracts.💣 US-Iran tensions escalated further Sunday as Iran launched missiles at Israel, marking its first direct strike since the early April ceasefire. Peace talks remain stalled over disputes surrounding frozen assets and broader regional conflicts.🛢️ Oil prices have stayed surprisingly contained despite the Strait of Hormuz closure now entering its fourth month, removing over 10 million barrels per day from the global supply. Record US exports, weaker Chinese demand, and SPR releases have offset much of the shock—though the situation remains fragile.🐛 A second New World screwworm case was confirmed in Texas Friday, just 5.6 miles from the initial detection near the US-Mexico border. Canada announced temporary import restrictions on livestock from affected regions, though cattle futures pushed higher on the week.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱📉 Soybean Futures—Soybean futures tumbled sharply on Thursday, with the Nov26 contract dropping nearly 26 cents to settle near $11.42/bu—its lowest point since mid-March. Favorable weather forecasts, weak crude oil prices, and lackluster Chinese demand all weighed on the market.🌽📊 Corn & Wheat Futures — Corn futures slid 8 cents to close near $4.52/bu on the Dec26 contract, hitting its lowest level since late January. Wheat futures also finished lower, pressured by ample global supplies.🌧️🗺️ USDA Drought Monitor—Hot and dry conditions across the Corn Belt worsened drought in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, northern Illinois, NW Indiana, and NE Missouri last week. Meanwhile, Kentucky saw improvement, and thunderstorms brought some relief to parts of the High Plains. 📄 See USDA's drought PDF linked below.🌾🌏 China Wheat Quality Concerns—Heavy late-May rains caused an estimated 4.8–10mmt of wheat to sprout in China's key growing regions, rendering it unfit for milling and redirecting it to livestock feed. China may ramp up imports of higher-grade milling wheat to compensate, while persistent wet weather is also slowing Russia's spring wheat planting to its slowest pace since 2018.📦🚢 US Export Sales—Corn export sales came in at 883,300mt for the week ending May 28, down 13% week-over-week and 32% below the prior four-week average, with Japan as the top buyer. Soybean sales totaled 276,900mt — down slightly week-over-week but up 24% from the four-week average, led by China, though China has yet to book any new-crop US soybeans.🐄🪲 Cattle Futures & Screwworm—Cattle futures rallied sharply on Thursday despite confirmation of New World screwworm in the US, with live cattle gaining up to $4.80/cwt and most feeder cattle contracts hitting the new $10.75/cwt daily limit. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins expressed confidence the case—the first in Texas since 1966—can be contained, though the risk of spread through wildlife remains a concern.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Grain futures extended losses Wednesday, with Dec26 corn falling ~7 cents to $4.60/bu and Nov26 soybeans declining ~11 cents to $11.67/bu — both hitting multi-month lows. Wheat also sold off sharply, with Chicago July26 dropping ~16 cents to $5.87/bu as favorable Corn Belt growing conditions weighed on the complex.🫘 Deputy Ag Secretary Stephen Vaden expressed confidence that China will follow through on its commitment to purchase 25mmt of US soybeans annually for three years. However, China has officially purchased zero bushels of US soybeans for 26/27 delivery so far.📈 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called the recent rise in inflation transitory, attributing it to higher energy prices tied to the Iran war. April CPI came in at 3.8% — the highest since 2023 — while most economists expect the federal deficit to widen above 6% this year.⛽ The Iran war has driven diesel prices to nearly double last year's levels in some regions, compounding elevated fertilizer and chemical costs for farmers. Rabobank estimates food prices could rise 4–6% over the next 12–18 months as input costs work their way through the supply chain.🏭 US ethanol production hit a seasonal high last week at 1.1 million barrels per day, up 4.9% vs. the same week last year. Ethanol margins across the Corn Belt remain positive at 20–55 cents based on spot prices of corn, DDGs, and other inputs.🐄 The USDA confirmed a New World screwworm case in a calf near La Pryor, Texas — the first detection in the US cattle herd. The USDA has implemented quarantines and a 12-mile surveillance zone, though questions remain about containment capacity heading into summer.🚢 USDA reported a flash sale of 136,000mt (5 million bushels) of corn sold to South Korea for 2026/27 delivery. The sale offers a modest bright spot amid an otherwise bearish week for grain markets.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Corn futures fell for a third straight session with the Dec26 contract settling near $4.67/bu—its lowest since late February—pressured by favorable Corn Belt weather and no Chinese buying since the mid-May summit. 🌽📉 Soybeans lost 11 cents to close near $11.78/bu and wheat followed lower, with Chicago July settling at $6.03 and KC July at $6.35. 🌾The White House is cutting tariffs on imported farm and construction equipment from 25% to 15%, effective June 8 through end of 2027, with a possible 10% rate for equipment using 85%+ US steel or aluminum. 🚜 Separately, the administration is proposing at least 10% tariffs on imports from 60 countries over forced labor concerns, largely replacing the current 10% global tariff expiring July 24th. 🌍US farmer sentiment slipped for the second straight month, with the Purdue/CME Ag Economy Barometer falling to 119 in May—well below last year's high of 158. 😟 A record 51% of producers cited high input costs as their top concern, and only 37% expect good times over the next five years. 💸China issued lodging warnings for its wheat crop as harvest begins, mobilizing thousands of combines to limit losses. 🇨🇳🌾 The main worry is reduced milling-quality wheat, which could nudge the world's top wheat producer toward increased imports. ⚠️CHS is closing or selling three grain elevators in southern Minnesota as farmers increasingly deliver directly to processors and river terminals. 🏗️ Expanded on-farm storage and more competitive pricing at larger facilities are accelerating the shift away from local elevators. 📦

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Initial US crop conditions came in below last year's ratings and analyst expectations across corn, soybeans, and wheat. Winter wheat hit its lowest good-to-excellent rating since records began in 1986.📉 Corn and soybean futures moved lower Monday despite a rally in crude oil, settling near multi-week lows. Weak grain prices were driven by a favorable US Corn Belt weather outlook and ample global supplies.☀️ A strong El Niño is increasingly likely to develop by late July, with an 82% probability of formation according to the US Climate Prediction Center. Historically, strong El Niño years have been associated with record or near-record corn and soybean yields.🛢️ Middle East tensions escalated after Iran suspended peace talks with the US, sending WTI crude surging 5.5% to just above $92 per barrel. Israeli PM Netanyahu signaled military operations in southern Lebanon would continue despite calls for a ceasefire.🚢 US corn export inspections came in strong at 1.7 million metric tons last week, up over 5% from the same week last year. Soybean shipments were near the lower end of expectations but jumped 64% year-over-year, with China accounting for roughly 42% of inspections.🥛 A whey protein shortage is emerging as food companies aggressively add protein to a wide range of products, pushing prices up 30–40% in recent months. Because whey is a byproduct of cheese production, supply can't easily expand, forcing manufacturers to explore alternatives like soy and pea protein.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🕊️ President Trump says he's in no rush on an Iran deal but warned military action remains on the table if negotiations fail. A tentative 60-day ceasefire extension was agreed upon, though Trump reportedly sent back a revised framework with tougher terms.⛽ Oil prices tumbled more than 9% last week on deal optimism, hitting a six-week low, while the national average for regular unleaded gasoline remained elevated at $4.34 per gallon. WTI crude posted its steepest weekly decline since mid-April.🌽 Corn futures fell roughly 7 cents Friday, with the Dec26 contract settling at $4.75—its lowest since mid-April—pressured by weak crude oil and favorable Corn Belt growing conditions. Soybeans edged lower while wheat took a sharp hit on ample global supplies despite ongoing Plains drought damage.🌧️ Weekend rains hit the western Corn Belt, Plains, and Southeast, but the central Corn Belt saw little to no moisture. The 7-day forecast calls for widespread Plains rainfall and decent coverage in the western and central Corn Belt, though the eastern Corn Belt may stay dry for another week.📦 Weekly corn export sales came in at 40 million bushels, down 52% from the prior week, while soybean sales totaled 11 million bushels and wheat posted a marketing year low. Notably, China has yet to book any new-crop US soybean purchases.📊 Money managers were heavy sellers last week, offloading 82k corn contracts, 14k soybean contracts, and 13k SRW wheat contracts. Since early May, funds have shed a total of 133k corn contracts.🐛 A New World screwworm case was detected just 31 miles from the US border in a sheep, marking the closest confirmed detection yet. If the parasite enters the US cattle supply, it could further tighten already historically low herd numbers and push beef prices even higher.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌧️☔ Excessive rainfall across major agricultural regions in China is raising concerns about potential crop damage, with heavy precipitation expected to persist through the end of May and into early June. Prolonged wet conditions have delayed wheat development, flattened fields, and are creating favorable conditions for pests and disease. 🌾📉🤫🌽 Unconfirmed rumors suggest China may reduce tariffs on grain imports, potentially increasing the likelihood of US purchases. A White House fact sheet from May 17th indicated China could buy $17 billion in US non-soybean ag products annually, and Bloomberg previously reported discussions around possible corn purchases. 💵🤝📈🫘 Soybean futures rallied Thursday, with the Nov26 contract gaining nearly 13 cents to settle at $11.94/bu, while the Dec26 corn contract rose roughly 5 cents to settle near $4.82/bu. Wheat futures were narrowly mixed, as traders appear to have largely priced in poor US winter wheat conditions and are shifting focus toward ample global supplies. 🌍⚖️🕊️💣 The US and Iran have reached a preliminary agreement to extend their ceasefire by 60 days, though President Trump has yet to approve the deal. Key US demands include reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a halt to Iran's nuclear program, while Iran seeks sanctions relief and access to frozen assets. 🛢️📜🛢️📊 Crude oil prices edged higher early Thursday following overnight clashes but faded during the session, with WTI rising just 0.3% to around $89/barrel. Ongoing military exchanges between the US and Iran continue to highlight the fragility of the ceasefire. ⚔️😬🌵🗺️ The USDA's weekly drought monitor showed improvements in Kentucky, southern Ohio, and southern Indiana following heavy Ohio Valley rainfall, while conditions worsened across northern Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and northern Iowa. Severe drought continues to grip much of the High Plains, with roughly 90% of Nebraska experiencing some level of drought. 🌾😰⛽📉 US ethanol production dipped last week but remained at a seasonal high, with weekly output at 1.09 million barrels per day — up 5.1% vs. the same week last year. Ethanol stocks climbed to 24.97 million barrels, and margins across the Corn Belt remain robust at 10 to 45 cents positive. 💪🌽

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 India is ramping up urea imports ahead of peak planting season, but despite buying at nearly double pre-conflict prices, the country still faces a significant supply shortfall. Surprisingly, the tender announcement failed to rally global urea markets, as traders are more focused on potential Chinese export resumption and hopes for a Strait of Hormuz peace deal.☮️ The US and Iran are struggling to finalize a peace deal, with Trump expressing dissatisfaction over current terms and warning that strikes could resume. Despite cautious optimism pushing WTI crude down to the high $80s earlier this week, overnight tensions have pushed spot prices back into the $90–91/bbl range.🌽 Corn futures hit their lowest level in over a month, dropping nearly 5 cents to close around $4.78/bu as crude oil's sharp selloff weighed heavily on the market. Wheat posted its fifth straight day of losses despite poor US winter wheat conditions, with Chicago and KC contracts both settling lower.🇧🇷 Brazilian farm bankruptcies have surged tenfold since 2021, prompting banks to tighten lending terms and seize assets even during bankruptcy proceedings. Consolidation appears to be the likely outcome, with larger operations absorbing smaller farms squeezed by low commodity prices, high rates, and rising input costs.⛽ The year-round E15 bill faces an uphill battle in the Senate, as it's widely considered unlikely to pass as standalone legislation. The inclusion of a Small Refinery Exemptions restructure has complicated its path, though it could still advance if attached to the farm bill, defense authorization, or an appropriations bill.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌽 Corn and soybean futures fell Tuesday on a favorable weather outlook, with drier forecasts expected to boost planting progress across the Corn Belt. Wheat extended its losing streak for a fourth straight session as Plains rainfall came too late to meaningfully help crop conditions.🛢️ Oil surged nearly 3% after US forces struck Iranian missile sites and mine-laying vessels in southern Iran, reigniting Middle East tensions. Iran vowed retaliation and called overnight strikes near Bandar Abbas a ceasefire violation, though WTI futures are trading lower this morning.🌾 USDA's latest crop progress report showed winter wheat conditions hit their worst rating since records began in 1986, with just 26% rated good-to-excellent. Corn and soybean planting both came in ahead of their five-year averages, signaling solid early-season field progress.🌍 The European Commission cut its 2026/27 soft wheat forecast to 126.9mmt, down 6% from last season, amid a heat wave battering western Europe. Traders are also watching whether soaring fertilizer and energy costs tied to the Iran conflict could shift global acreage away from corn.📦 US corn export inspections jumped 13% week-over-week and 11% year-over-year, while soybean shipments beat pre-report expectations. Wheat shipments came in near the lower end of estimates, running 35% below the same week last year.⚖️ President Trump is pushing to keep the CFTC in control of prediction markets and crypto, as Minnesota becomes the first state to ban prediction market platforms. Critics are raising conflict-of-interest concerns given Trump's family financial ties to both industries.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🛢️ Oil prices tumbled Monday as Trump teased a US-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — but Iranian officials quickly pumped the brakes on the optimism. Hours later, US and Israeli jets struck Iranian vessels in the strait, yet crude stayed lower while equities pushed higher.🌽 Grain futures dipped overnight on the oil selloff but clawed back some gains, with the Dec26 corn contract notably holding key trend support. Keep an eye on the central Corn Belt — extended models show it staying bone dry well into the 15-16 day forecast period.📊 The latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net sellers of corn and beans last week, offloading 2k and 10k contracts, respectively. Funds did flip to buyers in SRW wheat, picking up 15k contracts on the week.🚜 Some farmers are calling for more financial aid as fuel and fertilizer costssurge,e tied to the Middle East conflict—though the real pain may not hit until fall input-buying season for 2027. Year-round E15 legislation is also back on the table as producers look for any relief they can get.📦 USDA flashed some bullish export news Friday, with nearly 20 million bushels of corn sold to Mexico and 4 million more to unknown destinations. Soybean meal also moved, with 252,000mt sold split across the current and next marketing year.🐄 Friday's Cattle on Feed report leaned bearish, with May 1 inventories up 2% year-over-year and April placements coming in 6% above last year. Drought across the Plains is forcing early cattle sales, even as the domestic cowherd sits at its lowest level in 75 years.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱 Brazil's Agricultural Crisis – Soaring fertilizer prices tied to the Iran war are squeezing Brazilian farmers, with fertilizer use expected to drop nearly 4% by year-end. Soybean acreage growth is set to hit its slowest pace in nearly 20 years, while corn and cotton acreage may actually decline.🚜 John Deere Feeling the Pain – Deere's ag segment saw a 14% drop in Q2 sales, with US/Canada sales forecast to fall 15-20% this year. South America's outlook has also worsened dramatically, with sales now expected to slide 15% versus a prior forecast of just 5%.🌽 Grain Futures Under Pressure – Corn, soybeans, and wheat all closed lower Thursday, weighed down by a lack of confirmed Chinese purchases and favorable Corn Belt weather. Grain markets are tracking crude oil closely, with futures ticking slightly higher this morning alongside a $2-3/bbl rise in WTI.🌧️ Drought Monitor Update – USDA's latest data shows wildly uneven precipitation across the Corn Belt and Plains, with conditions worsening in Kentucky, northern Illinois, and parts of the Dakotas. A staggering 70% of winter wheat acres remain under drought stress nationwide.📦 Strong US Export Sales – Corn export sales crushed expectations at 2.1 MMT for the week ending May 14, up 71% from the prior four-week average. Soybean and wheat sales also came in near the top of expectations, though China has still yet to book any new-crop US soybeans.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🛢️ Oil prices tumbled over 5% on Wednesday as Trump announced US-Iran negotiations are nearing a final stage, sending WTI crude to $98.26 per barrel. Analysts warn the market may be underestimating the long-term risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.🌾 Wheat, corn, and soybean futures all closed lower, pressured by falling crude prices and uncertainty over China's confirmation of a $17 billion agricultural purchase deal. China's Ministry of Commerce acknowledged expanded trade but did not confirm the figure cited by the White House.🏦 The Federal Reserve is signaling a more hawkish stance, with officials suggesting rate hikes may be necessary if inflation — currently at 3.8% — continues to climb. Markets are now pricing in a 51% chance of a 25-basis-point hike by December, putting incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh on a collision course with Trump's push for cuts.⛽ US ethanol production hit a seasonal high last week at 1.11 million barrels per day, up 12% from the same period last year. Margins across the Corn Belt remain strong, ranging from 10 to 40 cents positive.🥩 Cargill locked out roughly 1,700 workers at its Fort Morgan, Colorado meatpacking facility after employees rejected a contract proposal, halting slaughter operations that were processing around 4,000 head per day. This comes as President Trump calls on the DOJ to investigate major meatpackers for potential price collusion, with packers currently losing upwards of $300 per head.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 Australia's wheat production is facing a major decline — dry conditions and soaring input costs from the Iran war could slash output by up to 41%, potentially dropping to just 21mmt. As the world's third-largest wheat exporter, this represents a serious global supply shock.🌱 Brazilian soybean acreage growth is hitting a 20-year low — rising fertilizer costs tied to Middle East conflict are slowing expansion to under 1 million new acres for 2026/2027. Meanwhile, this season's crop is on track to be a record 180.1mmt.🤝 China and the US agreed to cut agricultural tariffs — both nations confirmed a reciprocal tariff reduction framework, though specific products and dollar figures remain vague. As always with China, watch what they do, not what they say.📉 Corn futures dipped while soybeans edged higher — the Dec26 corn contract settled near $4.98 as traders waited for more details on the China deal. Nov26 soybeans added 2 cents to close at $12.03.🏭 The USDA is pushing to boost domestic fertilizer production—permitting is being fast-tracked, and tariffs on Moroccan phosphate imports may be removed to ease costs. An economist will also be hired specifically to monitor farm input prices.📈 Treasury yields are surging to near 20-year highs — the 30-year yield broke above 5.18% as war-driven inflation fears and massive bond issuance rattle markets. Analysts warn the Fed may be forced to raise rates rather than cut them.🌽 Lawmakers are calling for immediate farmer relief — Senator Boozman supports the USDA's long-term fertilizer plans but says near-term financial aid is urgently needed. He also renewed his push for a new farm bill and year-round E15 sales.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Grain and soybean futures surged Monday after a White House fact sheet revealed China committed to purchasing $17 billion in US agricultural products annually for the next three years — though key details and formal Chinese confirmation are still pending. Corn, soybeans, and wheat all rallied sharply as funds bought aggressively across the board.US winter wheat conditions continued to slide, with good-excellent ratings hitting their lowest level since 1996. The top five HRW-producing states are averaging just 9.6% good-to-excellent and 62.6% poor-to-very-poor, with the USDA pegging the HRW crop at 515 million bushels—down 36% from last year. Corn and soybean planting are both running ahead of average, and the forecast favors additional Corn Belt rainfall over the next five days.Brazil's inflation outlook is worsening, now projected at 4.5% by year-end—well above the central bank's 3% target—largely driven by higher oil prices tied to the Iran conflict. Brazilian farmers continue to face steep borrowing costs, with private loan rates exceeding 17%.US corn export inspections dipped last week but remain strong on the season. Soybean inspections were up 115% year-over-year, with China accounting for roughly 42% of the week's total. Wheat shipments fell below expectations.President Trump delayed a planned strike on Iran following requests from Persian Gulf allies, though WTI crude still settled up ~3% at $108.66/barrel. The administration extended a sanctions waiver on Russian oil sales for another 30 days amid ongoing pressure heading into the midterms.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 China Agrees to $17B Annual US Ag Purchases Through 2028 🇺🇸🇨🇳China has agreed to purchase at least $17 billion annually in US agricultural goods through 2028, following President Trump's meeting with President Xi Jinping in Beijing last week. 📋 These purchases are in addition to China's existing commitment to buy 25mmt of US soybeans annually through 2028. The two countries also plan to establish trade and investment boards, signaling closer economic coordination. ⚠️ However, China's commerce ministry described the agreement as preliminary, with no specific details provided. Click HERE to view the White House fact sheet.💭 Our Take: Dollar-benchmarked agreements are harder to track than volume-based ones. The last time China bought $17B+ in non-soybean US products was in 2021–2022, both years tied to large corn purchases. While skeptics point to the unfulfilled Phase One deal, it's worth noting China did complete its more recent 12mmt soybean commitment in full.🌧️ Corn Belt Rainfall Update: Parts of the Corn Belt received rain over the weekend, with the largest totals in southern Iowa, northern Missouri, and southeastern Nebraska. Radar remains active this morning over Iowa, Missouri, Illinois, and Wisconsin. CropProphet (via Euro model data) projects 175% of normal rainfall over the next 7 days and 104% of normal during the 8–14 day period. ☔🫘 NOPA April Crush Data: NOPA members crushed 211.86 million bushels of soybeans in April — down 6.3% from March but up 11.4% year-over-year and a record for the month of April. The result came in below the trade estimate of 214.03 million bushels. Crush margins hit their highest level in three years, boosted by a soybean oil rally tied to rising crude prices amid the Iran war. 🛢️ End-of-month soybean oil stocks fell to 1.95 billion pounds, down 4.5% from March but up 28% from last year.📊 CFTC Commitment of Traders (Week Ending May 12): Large money managers were net sellers of 49k corn contracts, though the net long position of 296k contracts remains the second-largest since February 2025. Funds were also net sellers of 5k soybean contracts and 9k SRW wheat contracts on the week.📦 USDA Flash Sale: US exporters sold 155,000mt of soybean cake and meal to Italy for delivery during the 2025/2026 marketing year.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🇺🇸🇨🇳 Trump meets Xi in China—traders were hoping for a BIG soybean announcement, but the news fell flat… at first. Treasury Secretary Bessent says the existing 25MMT/year deal through 2028 is enough, sending soybean futures tumbling 24 cents to $11.84/bu. BUT—Trump hinted China will buy "a lot" of US farm products, and Trade Rep. Greer expects a double-digit billion-dollar ag purchase agreement over the next 3 years. Stay tuned. 👀🌾 Kansas Wheat Tour delivers tough news — average yield projected at just 38.9 BPA, a 3-year low and well below the 5-year tour average of 45.5 BPA. Total production estimated at only 218M bushels, down from 338.5M last year. Drought abandonment could hit 20%. 😬🌧️ Drought continues to expand across the Plains — Nebraska is in rough shape, with 94% of the state now under some level of drought, including 10% in exceptional drought. Winter wheat is taking the hardest hit, with 71% of acres affected nationwide. 🔥⛽ E15 expansion debate heats up — The National Corn Growers Association says expanded E15 sales could mean $5+/acre in net benefits for corn & soybean farmers. The American Soybean Association flip-flopped this week—first opposing it, then supporting it with conditions. 🌽📦 Export sales disappointing—Corn sales down 50% week-over-week, soybeans hit a second straight marketing year low. Wheat was the bright spot, up 70% from the prior week. 📉📈

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌍 Trump & Xi Meet in Beijing — What It Means for Ag MarketsTrump and Xi sat down for a 2+ hour meeting in Beijing, and the agricultural world is watching closely. China renewed import licenses for hundreds of US beef plants 🐄, making beef exporters the early winners. Soybean traders, however, were left wanting more — no new purchase agreement was announced, sending grain markets mostly lower. Headlines are still developing, so stay tuned.🌽 E15 Clears the House — But the Senate Fight Is Just BeginningThe House passed year-round nationwide E15 sales 218–203 with bipartisan support. With ethanol trading at its widest discount to gasoline in 20 years, the economic case is strong — but oil-state senators and even the American Soybean Association have concerns. It's going to be a battle.🌾 Kansas Wheat Tour Paints a Tough PictureYield estimates are coming in well below last year across both northwest and southwest Kansas. Northwest came in at 38.3 bpa vs. 50.5 last year. The final state estimate drops today—don't miss it.🌧️ Rain Is Coming to the Corn Belt1-2" of rainfall is on the way for much of IL, IA, IN, MO, OH, MN, ND, and SD—welcome news for newly planted fields. But temperatures are also running 4.2°F above normal, so it's a mixed bag for crop development.🌱 EU Moves to Tackle Fertilizer CrisisNitrogen prices in Europe are up 40% since December. The EU is expected to announce a plan next week to stockpile fertilizers and support affected farmers ahead of winter planting season.🥩 JBS Profits Crater 56%Tight US cattle supplies crushed JBS's North American beef margins, dragging net income down to $220.6 million. Meanwhile, their Brazilian operations hit record Q1 sales. The meat giant also flagged rising corn prices ahead due to weather and fertilizer costs.⛽ Ethanol Production Hits Seasonal HighWeekly output hit 1.08M barrels/day — up 6.1% year over year. Margins remain healthy at 10–45 cents positive across the Corn Belt, even as stocks tightened to 24.87 million barrels.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 US wheat production is headed for its lowest level since 1972 — the USDA's May WASDE pegged the 2026/27 crop at 1.56 billion bushels, down 21% from last year and 10% below trade expectations. HRW wheat is forecast at just 515 million bushels, the lowest since 1957, as severe drought continues to devastate the Plains—and wheat futures hit their daily trading limits following the report.🫘 US soybean production is projected at 4.44 billion bushels — the second-highest on record — even as soaring input costs tied to the Middle East conflict weigh on farmers. Both US and global new-crop soybean carryout came in smaller than expected, giving bulls something to hold onto.🌽 Corn production is forecast at 16 billion bushels, down 6% year-over-year but slightly above trade guesses. Both corn and soybean futures closed higher on the day despite the broadly mixed USDA data.🤝 US and Chinese officials are deep in talks over Chinese purchases of American corn, soybeans, sorghum, and DDGs — with timing and volume still unresolved ahead of the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing tonight. Farmers want binding commitments, not social media posts, after recent informal announcements proved unreliable.🏛️ Senator John Hoeven is pushing for $17 billion in additional farm aid, including $3 billion for specialty crops, likely as a supplemental disaster relief package. The support is aimed at keeping current producers afloat and bringing the next generation back to the farm.📈 Inflation hit a 3-year high in April, with the CPI up 3.8% year-over-year—driven largely by energy costs surging nearly 18% annually amid the Iran war. The national average for regular unleaded now sits at $4.50 per gallon.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌾 US winter wheat is in crisis — only 28% of the crop is rated good-to-excellent, the worst rating since 1996 (excluding 2022), while 40% sits in poor-to-very-poor condition. The top 5 hard red winter wheat states are averaging a devastating 59% poor-to-very-poor rating as drought grips the Plains.📈 Grain futures surged Monday ahead of the USDA's big WASDE report and the highly anticipated Trump-Xi summit. Corn, soybeans, and wheat all pushed higher as traders bet on revived Chinese purchases and monitored worsening crop conditions.⛽ E15 ethanol could go year-round nationwide if a House vote passes this week, backed by bipartisan support — but the oil industry is pushing back hard. With wholesale ethanol at its widest discount to gasoline in 20 years, the economic case for E15 has never been stronger.🌽 The USDA dropped its first look at 2026/27 crop balance sheets today — and with ample supply and bearish headwinds, prices could face downward pressure. Initial corn and soy yield estimates are pegged at 183 bpa and 53 bpa, respectively.💊 Mosaic is slashing phosphate production by ~10% due to sulfur supply disruptions tied to the Iran conflict squeezing margins from both sides. Additional cuts could be coming if Middle East tensions don't ease soon.🐄 Trump pumped the brakes on beef import quota removal after fierce backlash from ranchers and lawmakers—cattle futures whipsawed on the news. A similar policy last fall failed to lower beef prices and cratered the cattle market instead.🚢 US corn and soybean export inspections remain robust, with corn up 30% year-over-year and soybeans up a stunning 49% vs. last year. China alone accounted for 52% of soybean inspections, and flash sales of corn to Mexico and South Korea were confirmed Monday.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🚨 Trump rejected Iran's counterproposal to the latest US peace offer, calling their demands—including gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the waterway—"totally unacceptable." Iran resumed attacks Sunday targeting the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait; Trump travels to China this week to urge Beijing to pressure Tehran toward a deal. Crude oil futures are trading higher on the news. 🛢️---📊 CFTC COMMITMENT OF TRADERS (Week ending May 5)🌽 Corn: Funds were net buyers of 79k contracts, bringing the net long to 345k — the largest since Feb 2025 and 84% of the modern-era "max" net long. 🫘 Soybeans: Funds were net buyers of 37k contracts, bringing the net long to 214k—the largest since Dec 2025 and 89% of the modern-era "max" net long.🌾 SRW Wheat: Funds were net sellers of 21k contracts on the week.---📈 FRIDAY MARKET RECAP🫘 Soybeans were sharply higher — Nov26 +16¢ to ~$11.90/bu—on optimism that China may make a small purchase ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting later this week. 🌽 Corn followed — Dec26 +4¢ to ~$4.94/bu—supported by elevated crude oil and the ongoing US-Iran conflict. 🌾 Wheat also gained on crude strength and persistent drought concerns.---📋 USDA WASDE — Tuesday, 11am CSTUSDA releases its monthly Crop Production & WASDE report Tuesday, including our first look at new crop (26/27) US and world balance sheets. USDA is expected to use Feb Ag Outlook yields (corn 183.0 bpa / beans 53.0 bpa) and March acreage numbers (corn 95.3M ac / beans 84.7M ac). With ample supply projections and several bearish factors in play, the outlook leans to the downside. ---🏦 FED & MACROGoldman Sachs now expects the first rate cut in December 2026, followed by another in March 2027 — both later than previously forecast — as elevated energy costs keep core inflation near 3%, well above the Fed's 2% target. Goldman also lowered its US recession probability to 25%, down 5 points, though still above the pre-Iran-war estimate of 20%.---⛽ FUEL PRICESNational average gasoline sits near $4.52/gal this morning, up sharply from $3.14/gal a year ago. Diesel sits near $5.64/gal vs. $3.52/gal a year ago, approaching the all-time record of $5.82 set in June 2022.

Joe's Premium Subscription: https://standardgrain.com/Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/grain-markets-and-other-stuff/id1494161095Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/4NJ9AZcSQBrLXFLCcPrGGG🌾 Wheat futures tumbled Thursday as KC HRW led the selloff, dropping nearly 20 cents, while SRW held up better with only a 5-cent loss. Rain hit parts of western KS and eastern CO, but many on the ground say it may be too little, too late. 👀 The Kansas Wheat Commission crop tour is coming up next week!🌽 Corn and soybeans bounced back late Thursday after hitting daily lows, with Dec26 corn recovering from $4.83 to close near $4.895/bu. Nov26 soybeans also clawed back about 9 cents from their lows.💣 Geopolitical tensions flared near the Strait of Hormuz as US and Iranian forces clashed Thursday. No ships were hit, and a ceasefire technically remains in place — but WTI crude is trading near $94/bbl this morning after bottoming at $89.85/bbl. Iran is expected to respond to a US peace proposal within days. 🛢️🇧🇷 Brazil's corn crop is shrinking. Agroconsult pegged production at 140.5mmt, down 7% year-over-year, with the key second crop on track to fall nearly 10%. USDA sits at 132mmt — a big gap between the two estimates.🌧️ Drought continues to grip the Plains. 70% of US winter wheat acres are now in drought, and conditions deteriorated further in NE, KS, and OK last week. The Corn Belt stayed mostly dry, which helped planting progress.🚢 A rare hantavirus outbreak on a cruise ship has health officials monitoring dozens of passengers across at least 5 US states. The Andes virus strain is unusual because it can spread person-to-person. WHO says overall public risk remains low. 🦠📉 Export sales came in soft. Corn sales totaled 1.3mmt for the week ending April 30 — down 15% week-over-week. Soybean sales hit a marketing year low at just 141,900mt, while wheat sales also missed expectations at 78,800mt.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.🌱💰 Fertilizer companies are cashing in on the Iran conflict. CF Industries and Nutrien both reported roughly 20% increases in quarterly sales as nitrogen fertilizer prices surged. Both companies also posted substantial gains in adjusted EPS. Since the conflict began, urea prices in New Orleans have jumped about 36%. 📈 Meanwhile, US natural gas prices haven't risen as sharply as other regions, allowing fertilizer producers to capture stronger profit margins. Despite elevated prices, fertilizer demand is expected to stay strong as farmers still need nutrients to maintain crop yields.☮️🛢️ The US and Iran may be nearing a peace agreement. Washington submitted a one-page memorandum of understanding outlining a plan to gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the US blockade on Iranian ports. Iran has not yet accepted the proposal, with leadership indicating parts of the deal are unrealistic. 📉 The announcement sent stocks surging and oil prices tumbling—US crude fell roughly 7% to settle near $95/bbl. The nearby Jun26 WTI contract trades near $93/bbl this morning after peaking above $105/bbl earlier this week. That $12/bbl selloff in less than 24 hours weighed heavily on the grain complex.🌽📉 Grain futures tumbled Wednesday on peace deal prospects. The Dec26 corn contract fell nearly 11 cents to settle at $4.90/bu. The Nov26 soybean contract declined 14 cents to close near $11.76/bu. Traders are watching next week's Trump-Xi meeting, though the likelihood of China returning to buy large volumes of US soybeans remains low. 🌾 Wheat also moved lower—Jul26 Chicago wheat fell ~11 cents to $6.17/bu, while Jul26 Kansas City wheat slipped 3 cents to $6.87/bu.⛽ US ethanol production ticked up last week. Weekly output came in at 1.02 million barrels per day, up 1% vs. the prior week but down 2.2% vs. the same week last year. Ethanol stocks rose to 26.02 million barrels, +1% week-over-week and +2.5% year-over-year. Ethanol margins across the Corn Belt remain strong at 5 to 45 cents positive based on Reuters data.🇧🇷🌱 Brazil's soybean acreage is projected to increase only slightly in 2026/2027. Rising fertilizer costs driven by the Middle East conflict are limiting expansion incentives. Additionally, the potential for a strong El Niño is weighing on acreage decisions — this weather pattern would raise drought risk in northern and west-central regions while increasing excessive rainfall risk in southern Brazil.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Oklahoma's winter wheat crop is on track for a historically poor season, with crop tour estimates coming in at 47.8 million bushels — nearly half the 10-year average and down 55% from last year, despite farmers planting 6% more acres. Dry conditions continue to grip the region, with 84% of the state experiencing some level of drought. The Kansas wheat tour is up next, where similarly disappointing numbers are expected. Meanwhile, the Texas wheat crop is battling both drought and a widespread disease outbreak tied to the wheat curl mite, with 56% of the crop rated poor to very poor.In Europe, corn futures surged to a near two-year high amid supply concerns, with French acreage expected to fall ~15% and Romania's crop projected to be its smallest in over a decade. High fertilizer costs linked to the Strait of Hormuz closure are a major driver. Back in the US, corn and soybean futures pulled back Tuesday on farmer selling and lower crude prices, while wheat futures slipped on forecasted Plains rainfall — though it's unlikely to make a meaningful dent in drought damage.Gas prices are surging, with the national average hitting $4.48/gallon — up $1.32 from a year ago — and diesel sitting at $5.66. Crude remains above $100/barrel with no resolution in sight on the US-Iran front. Farmer sentiment dipped in April per the Purdue/CME Ag Barometer, with input costs and availability remaining top concerns. And ADM raised its 2026 outlook, citing biofuel policy tailwinds and expectations of China returning to normal soybean buying in Q4.