Insider: Short of War

In this deep-dive discussion, we explore why subnational decisions in Wyoming are critical to American strategic advantage. We examine how Cheyenne’s data centers and advanced nuclear reactors in Kemmerer prove that local zoning and utility boards are the unsung actors in modern irregular warfare.  

In this deep dive, we explore the rise of marketized coercion. We break down how states use private actors to navigate the "gray zones" of modern conflict , the three regulatory blind spots that enable them , and why the current focus on "who" instead of "what" is failing to protect civilians.

This episode features an article exploring how Moldova’s constitutional neutrality has become a strategic vulnerability against Russian hybrid threats. From digital disinformation campaigns and electoral interference to direct military pressures involving Transnistria and the war in Ukraine , this recording examines Chișinău's necessary shift toward Western integration and defense modernization.  

In this episode, we explore a groundbreaking concept for U.S. strategic influence: "insurance as economic security" (IAES). We discuss how parametric insurance can be weaponized as "insurfare" by civil affairs teams to deliver rapid relief during natural disasters and economic shocks. Tune in to understand how this cost-effective strategy can help the U.S. counter adversary influence in the Global South.  

In this episode, we explore the concept that conflict has memory. We examine why local wars follow distinct trajectories. We also discuss how moving beyond basic incident maps can transform irregular warfare strategy.  

In this verbatim audio version of "Al-Hol’s Collapse: How Syria’s Detention Crisis is Enabling Islamic State Resilience," we listen to an in-depth analysis of the security transition in northeastern Syria. This episode explores how the fracturing of the detention system provides the Islamic State with opportunities to exploit contested narratives and rebuild its networks.  

In this verbatim audio version of "The Limits of Leadership Decapitation: Strategic Consequences of Overreliance on Military Force for Political Transformation," we explore the strategic shortcomings of targeting individual leaders to achieve regime change. Through analyzing case studies like Iraq, Afghanistan, and Venezuela, this episode demonstrates why dismantling broader coercive and financial networks is necessary for true political transformation.  

In this episode, we explore how irregular forces bypass traditional arms controls to acquire advanced military capabilities. Through the lens of the Libyan conflict, we unpack the commercial pathways—joint ventures, software unbundling, and integration hubs—that enable proxy forces to field precision drone strikes while state sponsors maintain deniability. Tune in to understand why intelligence and policy frameworks must adapt to this new reality of irregular warfare. Read the full article at the Irregular Warfare Initiative.  

In this latest article, Dr. John George Hatzadony explores how the insurance weapon irregular warfare mechanism closed the Strait of Hormuz in 2026. This audio version details how commercial risk logic converts limited kinetic action into systemic economic disruption. +4

In this episode, we explore the true cost of the NotPetya cyberattack—often labeled the most destructive cyber incident in history. While billions in damages affected companies worldwide, far less attention has been paid to the unintended consequences for Russia itself, the attack’s attributed origin. This episode walks through the economic data, methodology, and strategic implications of cyber “spillover,” revealing how offensive cyber operations can backfire in unexpected ways. Through careful analysis, we examine whether NotPetya meaningfully harmed Russia’s own economy—and what that means for the future of cyber warfare.

In this episode, we break down Dr. Tahir Mahmood Azad’s analysis of India-Pakistan drone warfare, exploring how cheap precision and autonomous systems are rewriting the rules of the "grey zone". We discuss the fallout of the May 2025 crisis, the "cost-asymmetry" of modern defense, and whether these unmanned platforms are pushing nuclear-armed rivals toward a dangerous tipping point.  

In this episode, we examine how Kurdish resistance drones in Iran could transform the battlefield in an irregular conflict with the Iranian regime. Drawing lessons from Ukraine’s drone warfare and global insurgencies, the article explores how affordable unmanned systems could provide Kurdish resistance forces with air support, intelligence, logistics, and psychological leverage. The discussion also looks at how the United States, Israel, and regional partners could support such an effort through training, technology transfers, and drone procurement networks. Ultimately, the episode explores whether drone-enabled insurgency could shift the strategic balance in Iran.

In this episode, we read Peter Burns' article on the intelligence risk in prediction markets. We explore how high-liquidity platforms like Polymarket democratize signal intelligence, potentially allowing individuals with inside knowledge to leak state intent. Tune in to hear about real-world examples, from Venezuela to Israel, where prediction markets compromised operational security.  

This episode analyzes China’s digital yuan as a tool for irregular warfare, exploring how Beijing’s state-controlled currency competes with Japan and South Korea’s stablecoin models for dominance over Southeast Asia’s financial infrastructure.  

In this episode, we explore the unique challenges and adaptations of military planning within the Security Assistance Group – Ukraine (SAG-U). From shifting mission analysis priorities to the "Four Ways of Seeing" framework, Lieutenant Colonel Benjamin C. Stumpf shares vital reflections on conducting advisory military planning in a complex environment without direct command and control over partner forces.  

Finland and Sweden's accession to NATO, prompted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, has significantly bolstered the Alliance's capabilities, adding 15 million people and doubling the NATO-Russia land border to 1,584 miles. This development enhances irregular warfare (IW) opportunities, both defensively and offensively, by leveraging the Nordics' strong militaries, societal resilience, and geographic proximity to Russia. Defensively, Finland contributes a massive reservist force of up to 870,000 trained citizens, the Hybrid Center of Excellence for countering hybrid threats, and winter warfare expertise from its special operations forces. Sweden adds its Total Defence model, which prepares civilians through informational brochures, a specialized submarine fleet for Baltic Sea operations, and a robust defense industrial base producing advanced systems like the Gripen fighter jet. Offensively, the Nordics' location creates dilemmas for Moscow, enabling NATO to threaten key Russian assets in areas like the Kola Peninsula and St. Petersburg while facilitating reinforcements and deterrence through flexible options involving special operations. This shift forces Russia to reallocate resources, stretching its military posture across a longer border and reducing focus on other fronts like Ukraine. While risking security dilemmas, these IW enhancements strengthen NATO's northern flank without necessitating large-scale escalations, turning what was once neutral territory into a strategic advantage for the Alliance.

American Samoa is a strategic hub in the South Pacific, yet its importance is often overlooked in U.S. defense planning. This episode explores how Pago Pago Harbor’s unique geography, rising Chinese influence, illegal fishing, and illicit trafficking intersect with America’s maritime security challenges. Drawing on history, regional geopolitics, and current infrastructure gaps, the episode makes the case for renewed U.S. investment, a permanent Coast Guard presence, and port modernization to secure vital sea lanes, protect U.S. maritime rights, and strengthen regional stability in an era of great power competition.

U.S. security force assistance is trapped in a “Schrödinger’s Cat” paradox: the very metrics used to measure partner military success distort reality and create the illusion of effectiveness. By relying on easily quantifiable indicators—troop numbers trained, equipment delivered, units certified—the U.S. incentivizes performative behavior by both advisors and partner forces, producing polished reports rather than durable institutions. Drawing on examples from Afghanistan, Iraq, the Sahel, and even Ukraine, the authors show how tactical proficiency metrics routinely mask corruption, weak political legitimacy, and institutional fragility, leading to strategic failure despite apparent progress. They contend this problem has worsened under post-2017 assessment frameworks that treat security assistance as a linear, engineering problem rather than a complex adaptive system. The solution, they argue, is not abandoning assessment but redesigning it: shifting from proof-seeking to hypothesis-testing, elevating qualitative advisor judgment, measuring outcomes that partners cannot fake, and aligning evaluation with strategic competition rather than counterterrorism-era outputs—so that when a crisis finally “opens the box,” policymakers aren’t shocked to find a force that only ever looked alive on paper.

This episode explores how NATO’s updated Security Force Assistance doctrine reflects lessons from Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine, and the Sahel. It examines shifts from counterinsurgency to great-power competition, the growing role of multi-actor SFA environments, training outside the host nation, improved assessment tools, and the integration of human security and international law. Listeners will gain insight into how NATO is adapting its approach to build more effective and legitimate partner forces amid intensifying geopolitical rivalry.

This podcast episode explores the Northern Ireland peace process through a close reading of Eamonn O’Kane’s The Northern Ireland Peace Process: From Armed Conflict to Brexit. Tracing events from the Good Friday Agreement through decommissioning, power-sharing, and Brexit, the episode examines how a violent conflict was transformed into a long, fragile political process. It highlights key decisions, enduring tensions between unionists and nationalists, and why peace in Northern Ireland remains an ongoing endeavor rather than a settled conclusion.

This episode examines cognitive warfare in the Indo-Pacific and how the United States and its partners can counter PRC influence by shaping narratives, empowering local voices, and leveraging technology. Through real-world examples and a proposed cognitive warfare framework, the conversation explores how information, perception, and digital tools can deter aggression and uphold international norms long before conflict. Adapted from the original Irregular Warfare Initiative article.

In this wide-ranging conversation, Karl Marlantes—Marine infantry officer, Navy Cross recipient, and author of Matterhorn—reflects on the Vietnam War and the enduring lessons America has failed to absorb. Drawing on combat experience, literature, and decades of reflection, Marlantes discusses leadership under pressure, moral injury, civil wars, warrior identity, postwar reintegration, and how modern conflicts from Iraq to Ukraine echo Vietnam’s unresolved truths. This interview explores not just how wars are fought, but how they shape individuals, institutions, and national memory.

The future of the AH-64 Apache is under intense debate as the U.S. Army balances manned attack helicopters with rapidly advancing unmanned systems. This episode examines the evolution of attack aviation, the rise of drone swarms, manned-unmanned teaming, and whether the Apache can adapt to remain relevant in modern and future conflicts. Drawing on lessons from Ukraine, Israel, and decades of Army aviation history, the discussion explores cost, survivability, lethality, and mission effectiveness across the spectrum of conflict.

In this episode, Dino Garner explores how critical minerals and irregular warfare intersect in the gray zone. Moving beyond mining myths, the discussion reveals how China’s dominance of mineral processing and refining has become a strategic weapon—one that threatens Western defense supply chains, deterrence, and sovereignty. From rare earths to magnesium, this audio version walks through the industrial vulnerabilities shaping modern economic and irregular warfare, and the policy responses now emerging to confront them.

In this episode, we explore how the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) operates at the intersection of economics and national security. From solar farms and hotels to dating apps and food supply chains, the discussion examines how foreign ownership of U.S. assets can create strategic vulnerabilities. Drawing on real-world cases involving China, critical infrastructure, and sensitive data, this podcast explains how CFIUS has evolved into a powerful—and often opaque—tool of economic statecraft in an era of great-power competition.

In this episode, we examine the real-world effectiveness of offensive cyber operations in modern warfare. Using the Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Hamas, and Israel-Iran conflicts as case studies, the discussion explores how cyberattacks were timed alongside kinetic operations, the role of hacktivists, and why cyber activity has failed to produce decisive battlefield effects. The episode also highlights key policy, strategic, and operational lessons for future conflicts involving advanced cyber powers.

In this episode, we explore how Russian maritime sabotage has evolved from a niche component of special operations into a broader, scalable form of irregular warfare. Drawing on developments within GUGI, the GRU Spetsnaz, and Russia’s expanding use of uncrewed systems, this audio version examines the shifting threat landscape, the vulnerabilities of undersea infrastructure, and what this transformation means for Western defense planners.

Japan stands at a strategic crossroads. This episode examines how Japan’s postwar pacifism, historical memory, and aversion to war as strategy affect its ability to compete in an era defined by irregular warfare and great-power rivalry. Tracing Japan’s experience from World War II to today, the discussion explores why strategic literacy matters—and what reforms could better position Japan as a capable security partner in the Indo-Pacific.

In this episode, we explore the dramatic rise of the Uskoks of Senj—refugees turned maritime raiders—and how they became one of history’s earliest and most revealing examples of proxy warfare. Drawing parallels between their 17th-century operations and modern irregular warfare doctrine, this episode examines their underground networks, guerrilla tactics, and volatile partnership with the Habsburgs. We unpack their strategic impact on the Ottoman and Venetian Empires and the lessons their story offers for today’s practitioners navigating the complexities of proxy relationships, deniability, and asymmetric conflict.

This episode covers a deep-dive exploration of how space-based capabilities for irregular warfare can transform security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. The podcast examines how satellites, AI-enabled analysis, and commercial space data expose gray-zone activity, enhance maritime surveillance, strengthen partner resilience, and shape narrative competition. Listeners will hear how space tools—from SAR imaging to resilient communications—empower frontline nations and enable long-term strategic influence across the region.

This episode explores how civilian-linked maritime intelligence can shift the balance in gray zone competition. It explains why local observers, when connected to regional analytic hubs, can generate faster attribution, reduce ambiguity, and strengthen partner decision cycles. Through examples from the Pacific Fusion Centre to the 2024 Second Thomas Shoal crisis, the episode examines how community-linked alert networks, tactical intelligence cells, and multilateral partnerships can reshape escalation dynamics in the Indo-Pacific.

In this episode, we examine the evolving role of USSOF cyber operations. From lessons in Ukraine to integrating technology and industry partnerships, learn how Special Operations can enhance strategic outcomes and maintain relevance in modern conflict.

In this episode, we explore Taiwan’s 2025 National Defense Report and its powerful shift toward national resistance, cognitive resilience, and irregular deterrence. Learn how Taiwan confronts PRC gray zone harassment, cognitive warfare, and narrative manipulation while strengthening societal resilience, military readiness, and whole-of-nation defense. This full-length reading presents a detailed, accessible breakdown of the report’s most important insights for policymakers, security practitioners, and listeners interested in Indo-Pacific security.

This episode explores how Russian sabotage in Europe has evolved into a defining feature of the continent’s security landscape. Drawing on recent incidents—from attacks on undersea cables to arson targeting political figures—the narrative examines why sabotage offers Moscow a low-risk, high-reward strategy. We break down misleading trends, the gig-economy model of recruiting saboteurs, vulnerabilities across European infrastructure, and why these operations persist despite increased Western coordination. The episode concludes with policy implications, deterrence challenges, and what NATO must change to confront sabotage as part of the new normal.

In this episode, we explore insights from the 2025 Partnership for Peace Consortium workshop on proxies in hybrid operations. Hear how experts from 12 countries examine Russia’s evolving proxy strategies, regional case studies, and emerging hybrid threats. The discussion outlines a four-pillar framework for understanding and countering proxy activity and highlights the launch of a new collaborative research initiative shaping future democratic resilience.

This episode examines the Pentagon’s new irregular warfare instruction—what it says, why it was issued, and how it could reshape U.S. military strategy. We break down the updated definition of irregular warfare, explore its expanded scope across domains like cyber and space, and analyze the practical implications for the services, policymakers, and future conflict.

In this episode, IWI's Chris Booth reviews The Mad and the Brave by Colin Freeman—a vivid account of Ukraine’s Foreign Legion. Discover how foreign volunteers shaped the war, the leadership missteps that limited their impact, and what their experiences reveal about modern irregular warfare.

In this episode, we explore how Cultural Property Protection can serve as a powerful tool of irregular warfare in the Indo-Pacific—strengthening regional resilience, countering illicit trafficking, and building trust through shared heritage and preservation.

In this episode, we explore how the Kosovo Liberation Army used propaganda, martyrdom, and media manipulation to shape Western narratives during the Kosovo conflict. Learn how perception management, strategic timing, and emotional storytelling influenced NATO’s decision to intervene and redefined modern warfare’s psychological front.

In this episode, we explore how Shakespeare’s Henry VI, Julius Caesar, Richard III, and Coriolanus offer surprising insights into the psychology and strategy of irregular warfare. From narrative control to the weaponization of public sentiment, Shakespeare’s dramas reveal how legitimacy, loyalty, and perception shape modern conflict more than firepower ever could.

In this episode, we explore Martin Laryš’ Rebel Militias in Eastern Ukraine: From Leaderless Rebellion to Proxy Army. The discussion unpacks how Russia leveraged local militias in the Donbas through principal–agent dynamics, exposing the risks, costs, and fragmentation that shaped the early Russo-Ukrainian War. We examine how weak social ties, decentralization, and opportunistic leadership contributed to the conflict’s volatility and what these lessons reveal about the future of proxy warfare.

This episode explores how China expands its influence across the Pacific Islands through policing partnerships rather than military force. We examine Beijing’s growing reach, examples of its law enforcement ties, and why the United States must adapt its engagement strategy to counter these efforts with regional partnerships and information campaigns.

The War in Ukraine has transformed how nations fight. This episode explores how the U.S. can apply those lessons through the Military Personnel Exchange Program (MPEP), leveraging Ukrainian combat experience to modernize American doctrine and strengthen interoperability for future conflicts.

In this episode, we explore how “failure bias” has influenced U.S. Air Force decisions for decades, leading to the neglect of successful air advisory missions that advanced American strategic interests—from the Philippines to Afghanistan—and what lessons should guide future engagement with allies and partners.

This episode explores Hezbollah’s evolving information warfare strategy in the wake of October 7. Drawing on interviews with cyber operatives and experts, it reveals how the group is rebuilding its digital arsenal through AI, cyber operations, and psychological tactics while contending with Israel’s superior technology and intelligence capabilities.

This episode explores Israel’s irregular warfare paradox—how its precise operations in Iran contrast sharply with its brutal campaign in Gaza. Through analysis of recent conflicts, shifting U.S. support, and expert commentary, we examine how these dual strategies threaten Israel’s security and global standing.

This episode examines Operation Spider Web, Ukraine’s drone strike on Russian bases, and the lessons it offers for imposing strategic costs on China using drones and AI-enabled conventional weapons.

This episode explores how the indigenous approach in Special Operations Forces can be maximized through secondment. Learn how embedding SOF with Indo-Pacific partners builds trust, frustrates Chinese influence, and strengthens U.S. alliances.

In this episode, we explore Patrick Latham’s award-winning analysis on applying the Alaska Territorial Guard concept to Indo-Pacific irregular warfare. Learn how local knowledge, unconventional partnerships, and preemptive preparation can help U.S. allies strengthen resilience against modern threats.

This episode explores how Austronesian identity strengthens networked deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. From cultural exchanges to security cooperation, learn how heritage and trust can counter China’s gray zone strategies and build resilience among regional allies.