EPISODE · Oct 14, 2025 · 9 MIN
Failure Bias in Air Advisory Missions
from Insider: Short of War · host Irregular Warfare Initiative
In this episode, we explore how “failure bias” has influenced U.S. Air Force decisions for decades, leading to the neglect of successful air advisory missions that advanced American strategic interests—from the Philippines to Afghanistan—and what lessons should guide future engagement with allies and partners.
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What this episode covers
This episode examines the Air Force’s enduring “failure bias” in evaluating air advisory missions. Drawing lessons from Vietnam, the Philippines, Thailand, and Afghanistan, it argues that investing in sustainable partner-led airpower enhances U.S. security and prevents costly interventions.
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Failure Bias in Air Advisory Missions
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