ITR Economics

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Connor Lokar examines the Treasury’s move to increase buybacks of long-term US bonds as rising yields and mortgage rates put renewed pressure on the housing market. With single-family housing starts posting a historically sharp June-to-July decline and mortgage rates moving closer to 7%, businesses are facing another reminder of how higher borrowing costs can ripple through the economy. Connor breaks down what the Treasury’s latest intervention could signal, whether its goals are beginning to diverge from the Fed’s, and why the US crossing $40 trillion in national debt deserves attention. Is this simply a liquidity operation, or an early sign of friction between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve?

Data Center Demand Is Fueling Growth in Power Generation | TrendsTalk by ITR Economics

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Connor Lokar breaks down the latest CPI report and what it could mean for the Fed’s September rate decision. Inflation delivered a “Goldilocks” reading, but for businesses and consumers waiting for clearer direction on interest rates, the outlook remains far from settled. Connor also examines continued weakness in the housing market, shifting market expectations for the Fed’s next move, and why economic policy uncertainty can make investment decisions even more difficult. Plus, he responds to a viewer’s take on forward guidance and considers whether the Fed can provide greater clarity without signaling its next move. Do the latest inflation and labor market data give the Fed enough reason to stay on hold in September? Share your take in the comments.

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain is joined by Senior Economist and Consultant Tara Bayke to examine the health of the US consumer. Retail sales continue to grow, but a closer look reveals a widening divide between income groups as essential costs and credit card pressures affect consumers differently. What does this K-shaped economy mean for businesses over the next few years?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain examines where global industrial production is growing today and why today's strongest-performing economies may not be the best strategic locations for the decade ahead. Learn which regions are expected to improve through 2026, which face increasing challenges, and what global businesses should consider when planning for the 2030s. Could your long-term strategy be focused on the wrong markets? 2025 Webinar "Global Ramifications of the 2030s Depression" → https://itrondemand.com/store/product/global-ramifications-2030s-depression

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Connor Lokar breaks down the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady and why Chairman Kevin Warsh says it's time for markets to "play the ball, not the referee." As businesses continue navigating inflation uncertainty, slowing economic growth, and pressure on consumers, what should leaders actually be paying attention to? Connor explains why the Fed is stepping back from forward guidance, what recent GDP data signals about the economy, and what to watch as we head into the fall. Are markets focused on the right signals, or are they paying too much attention to every word from the Fed? 👍 Like, subscribe, and let us know in the comments: What economic indicator are you watching most closely right now?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain explains how different sectors are moving through the business cycle and what that means for your business in 2027. While parts of the economy continue to grow, leading indicators suggest conditions are changing. Learn why relying on today's momentum could lead to costly planning mistakes and what businesses should focus on instead. Watch to see what the latest economic signals could mean for your strategy.

his week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Connor Lokar previews next week's Federal Reserve meeting and explains why renewed geopolitical tensions, rising oil prices, and higher Treasury yields could reshape expectations for interest rates. As markets adjust to fresh inflation risks, what should business leaders and decision-makers be watching now? If you're trying to understand how today's economic headlines could affect borrowing costs, business planning, and the outlook for the rest of the year, this episode breaks down the key developments and what they could mean moving forward. Will the Fed stay on hold, or could the conversation shift in an unexpected direction?

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down the latest CPI and PPI reports and explains why cooler inflation headlines do not necessarily mean interest rate cuts are back on the table. Learn why falling energy prices are distorting the data, what businesses should actually be watching, and how inflation is affecting consumers differently across the economy. If you're trying to make pricing, budgeting, or investment decisions, looking only at the headline numbers could lead you in the wrong direction. Lauren explains what matters most and what to watch next as the Fed weighs its next move. Will one month of encouraging inflation data change the Fed's outlook, or is the bigger picture telling a different story?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain examines which US states are best positioned from a fiscal resiliency standpoint and why that matters for your business strategy. Rising debt, pension obligations, and long term fiscal health could play a major role in determining where opportunities emerge as we move toward the 2030 downturn. If your business depends on government spending, public infrastructure, or regional growth, this is a conversation you won't want to miss. 🔗 Click here for our webinar "Winning US States for the 2030s" → https://hubs.ly/Q04dnhxM0 Every business is different, and these rankings are meant to be applied to your unique situation. If you'd like to discuss what your state's outlook means for your business, email [email protected] with "State Index" in the subject line.

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down what the June jobs report is really telling us about the U.S. economy and why the headlines may not reflect the full story. She also examines the Supreme Court's decision in the Lisa Cook case, what it means for Federal Reserve independence, and why the outcome could shape future monetary policy. If you're trying to separate market noise from meaningful economic trends, this episode explains what business leaders should be watching next. What do you think will have the bigger impact on the economy: the labor market or Federal Reserve independence? Let us know in the comments.

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain sits down with Managing Director Grace Schatz to discuss new research ranking which US states are best positioned for long-term economic success. Whether you're considering expansion, deciding where to invest, or planning your sales strategy, understanding regional economic resilience could become a competitive advantage. Which surprising states made the list, and why did some fast-growing economies fall short? Every business is different, and these rankings are meant to be applied to your unique situation. If you'd like to discuss what your state's outlook means for your business, email [email protected] with "State Index" in the subject line. What factors matter most when deciding where your business should grow next? Let us know in the comments. 🔗 Click here for our webinar "Winning US States for the 2030s" → https://hubs.ly/Q04dnhxM0

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain explains what a K-shaped economy really means and why some industries are accelerating while others continue to struggle. Learn which sectors are on the "upper end of the K," which markets are lagging behind, and why understanding these trends can help businesses make smarter strategic decisions. 📊 Trends Report Free Preview → https://hubs.la/Q03ybVV00

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down what looked like a strong GDP report and explains why the headline doesn't tell the whole story. Consumer spending weakened, inflation accelerated, and the latest PCE data may have significantly changed the outlook for interest rates. If your business is waiting for lower borrowing costs or trying to plan for the months ahead, these mixed economic signals could have important implications. Lauren explains what the latest data really means and why the Fed's next move may already be taking shape. Will higher inflation force the Fed to raise rates sooner than expected? Watch the full episode and let us know your thoughts in the comments.

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain is joined by Economist Derek Stanely to discuss which US states are best positioned to weather the projected 2030 downturn. With workforce availability, population trends, fiscal health, and economic resilience varying widely across the country, where should businesses focus their growth and diversification efforts? Discover the key factors behind ITR Economics' rankings of the most resilient and most at-risk states, and learn why geographic strategy may become a competitive advantage in the years ahead. Which states do you think will be best positioned for the next decade? Join the June 25 rebroadcast with live Q&A, all registrants receive the recording and slide deck. → https://hubs.ly/Q04dnhxM0

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down the first Federal Reserve meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh and why the market may need to rethink expectations for interest rates. While rates remained unchanged, the Fed's messaging took a noticeably different tone. Lauren examines what Warsh's leadership style could mean for future policy decisions, inflation management, Fed communications, and the broader economic outlook. For business leaders, investors, and decision-makers trying to navigate persistent inflation and uncertain rate expectations, this meeting may offer important clues about what comes next. Will a new chair lead to a new era at the Federal Reserve?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the latest housing market data and explains why housing activity remains under pressure despite signs that the decline is beginning to stabilize. With affordability challenges, elevated mortgage rates, and existing home sales hovering near levels seen during the 2008-09 financial crisis, what does the outlook hold for builders, suppliers, and businesses tied to housing? Will improving trends in 2026 be enough to spark a meaningful recovery, or is the housing market facing a longer road ahead? 🔗 Register here for our upcoming webinar "Winning US States for the 2030s" → https://hubs.ly/Q04dnhxM0 📊 Trends Report Free Preview → https://hubs.la/Q03ybVV00

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down a week packed with economic data, including a stronger-than-expected jobs report, elevated CPI and PPI inflation readings, and what they mean for the Federal Reserve's next move. As markets increasingly price out rate cuts, Lauren examines why the conversation may be shifting toward higher interest rates instead. She also explores the European Central Bank's surprise rate hike and what it could signal for the global inflation outlook. If you're trying to understand where interest rates, inflation, and economic growth are headed next, this episode highlights the key trends business leaders should be watching. Do you think the Fed's next move could be a rate increase rather than a rate cut? #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #Economy #FedWatch #EconomicForecast #JobsReport #CPI #PPI #ITREconomics

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain examines the rapid growth of US data center construction and why the industry remains a key economic bright spot. While forecasts call for continued expansion through 2028, new challenges surrounding energy infrastructure, electricity costs, and proposed legislation could reshape the outlook. Will data center growth continue at its current pace, or are early warning signs beginning to emerge? 🔗 Register here for our upcoming webinar "Winning US States for the 2030s" → https://hubs.ly/Q04dnhxM0 2025 Executive webinar, "Strategic Shifts for Resiliency in the 2030s Great Depression" → https://itrondemand.com/store/product/strategic-shifts-resiliency-2030s

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down Trimmed Mean PCE, the inflation measure drawing increased attention from Federal Reserve policymakers. With inflation signals sending mixed messages, businesses and investors face a growing challenge: which data should they trust when assessing future interest rate decisions? Lauren explains how Trimmed Mean PCE works, why some policymakers favor it, and what it could mean for the Fed's approach to inflation going forward. Could this lesser-known metric become a more influential guide for monetary policy? Watch to learn what makes it different and why it matters.

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain explains why ITR Economics has upgraded its Producer Price Index (PPI) forecast for 2026 from 3.4% to 5.0%. Rising commodity costs, geopolitical uncertainty, and supply chain pressures are creating new challenges for businesses trying to protect margins and maintain profitability. How should companies adjust their pricing strategy when key inputs like copper, aluminum, and oil are rising much faster than overall inflation? Tune in as Taylor breaks down the latest outlook and what it means for business leaders planning for the years ahead. 🔗 Register here for our webinar "Winning US States for the 2030s" → https://hubs.ly/Q04dnhxM0 Trends Report Free Preview → https://hubs.la/Q03ybVV00

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down the latest GDP revision, persistent inflation pressures, and why expectations for future Fed policy may be shifting in a surprising direction. Many business leaders are waiting for lower interest rates before making major investment decisions. But what if that wait no longer makes sense? Lauren explores what the latest economic data is signaling, why inflation remains stubbornly elevated, and how changing market expectations could impact capital spending decisions heading into the second half of the year. Could the next Fed move be a rate hike instead of a rate cut? Share your thoughts and questions in the comments below.

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain sits down with Lauren Saidel-Baker to discuss what a new Fed chair could mean for inflation, interest rates, and business strategy heading into 2030. With inflation remaining stubbornly high and bond markets signaling concern, should businesses rethink their borrowing and investment plans before rates move even higher? Could the next move from the Fed actually be another rate hike? 🔗 Register here for our webinar "Winning US States for the 2030s" → https://hubs.ly/Q04dnhxM0 Connect with us on LinkedIn! ITR → https://www.linkedin.com/company/itr-economics/ Taylor → https://www.linkedin.com/in/tstg/ Lauren → https://www.linkedin.com/in/lauren-saidel-baker/

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes and the growing divide inside the Fed over the future direction of interest rates. While markets continue searching for clues about future rate cuts, new dissents from Fed officials reveal deeper concerns about persistent inflation and the path forward under incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Lauren explains why these disagreements matter for businesses, investors, and economic planning, and what the structure of the Federal Open Market Committee could mean for future policy decisions. As uncertainty around inflation and monetary policy continues, understanding how these internal Fed debates shape economic outcomes is becoming increasingly important. Could shifting dynamics inside the Fed change the direction of interest rates sooner than markets expect?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain is joined by Economist and Consultant Speaker Derek Stanley to discuss how businesses should prepare for the economic realities of the 2030s. While growth opportunities remain strong over the next four years, relying on linear planning could leave companies exposed when conditions shift. In this episode, we break down the importance of cash flow management, debt reduction, resilient industries, and geographic strategy as businesses position themselves for long-term success. Which industries may hold up better during the next major downturn? And what steps should leaders be taking today to protect their companies tomorrow? 🔗 Register here for our webinar "Winning US States for the 2030s" → https://hubs.ly/Q04dnhxM0

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down the latest inflation data and why April’s hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI reports are raising new concerns for businesses and policymakers alike. Lauren explains what persistent inflation means for margins, borrowing costs, and future Fed decisions as Kevin Warsh prepares to step into the Fed Chair role. Could the next move from the Federal Reserve actually be a rate hike instead of a cut? If your business is struggling with rising costs, shrinking margins, or uncertainty around capital investment decisions, this episode highlights the key economic signals you should be watching right now. Do you think the Fed’s next move will be to hold rates steady, cut, or raise them again? #FederalReserve #Inflation #InterestRates #Economy #FedWatch #BusinessStrategy #EconomicOutlook #LaurenSaidelBaker

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain revisits the long-term 2030 economic outlook and explains why rising national debt remains one of the biggest risks facing the US economy. With debt levels climbing, interest payments surging, and demographic pressures building, what does this mean for businesses trying to plan ahead? Taylor breaks down the key drivers behind ITR Economics’ 2030 forecast, including transfer payments, debt-to-GDP concerns, and the economic impact of an aging population. Most importantly, he shares why business leaders should start preparing now rather than waiting for warning signs later. For a deeper dive into ITR Economics’ 2030 forecast and preparation strategies, visit → https://itreconomics.com/2030s-great-depression/

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down the growing divide inside the Federal Reserve as more officials begin raising concerns about persistent inflation and the future of rate cuts. Lauren explains why recent inflation pressures may be more structural than temporary, how Middle East conflict is impacting oil prices and supply chains, and what weakening consumer trends could mean for the broader economy moving forward.

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the latest 2025 population growth data and what it means for business strategy. As migration trends shift and previously declining states rebound, where should you be focusing your expansion efforts? Understanding where people are moving is critical in today’s tight labor market and evolving economic landscape. Are you positioned where demand is growing? 🔗 Register here for our "Winning US States for the 2030s" Executive Series Webinar → https://hubs.ly/Q04dnhxM0

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down a major leadership transition at the Federal Reserve and what it could mean for policy direction in the months ahead. With Jerome Powell stepping down as Chair but remaining on the Board, questions around influence and continuity are front and center. She also examines the latest GDP data, highlighting the growing role of AI-driven business investment, and explains why inflation remains more persistent than many expected. If you are trying to understand where the economy is headed and what risks could impact your planning, this episode offers key insights without the noise. Could a leadership shift at the Fed quietly reshape monetary policy? And what does stubborn inflation mean for your business strategy?

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down the latest retail sales data and what it reveals about consumer resilience despite rising energy costs. With gasoline prices surging, many businesses are questioning whether demand can hold and how long margin pressure may persist. Lauren also examines growing political tensions surrounding the Federal Reserve, including leadership transition uncertainty and what it could mean for future interest rate direction. As confirmation battles unfold, businesses are left navigating an increasingly unclear policy environment. 🔔 UPDATE: Since taping this episode, the Justice Department has dropped its criminal probe into Chair Jerome Powell. US Attorney Jeanine Pirro announced that the Fed’s inspector general will instead review cost overruns tied to recent building renovations. This development removes a key hurdle in Kevin Warsh’s confirmation process, as discussed in this episode. If you are planning for the second half of the year, understanding the balance between pricing pressure and consumer demand is critical. Don’t miss our upcoming webinar on state-by-state opportunities and US Consumer trends. Save your seat today → https://itrondemand.com/store/product/winning-states-2030s

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain is joined by fellow Economist Tara Bayke to break down the growing risk of “profitless prosperity.” As the economy expands through 2026 and beyond, many businesses may see rising revenues but shrinking margins due to persistent cost pressures. From surging material and energy costs to labor challenges and AI investment, where should leaders focus to protect profitability? And what role will the Federal Reserve play as inflation pressures continue? Tune in for a timely discussion on how to prepare for growth while safeguarding your bottom line. Are you ready to grow profitably in the years ahead? Trends Report Free Preview → https://hubs.la/Q03ybVV00 Trends Report Free Trial → https://itrondemand.com/store/product/trendsreport-free-trial

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down the growing uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve leadership and what it could mean for market stability. With questions around Chair Powell’s term, potential legal challenges, and political pressure, businesses are left wondering how much confidence they can place in the Fed’s independence. Lauren also highlights a key economic indicator tied to business-to-business investment that is showing stronger-than-expected momentum. What does this signal about the direction of the economy and future demand? If you are trying to plan ahead in an environment shaped by both political uncertainty and shifting economic signals, this episode offers critical insights without the noise. Will markets continue to trust the Fed if political pressure intensifies?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down how AI is reshaping the labor market and why white-collar industries are seeing a different impact than blue-collar sectors. While many businesses are investing heavily in AI, layoffs and workforce shifts are not happening evenly across the economy. What does this mean for hiring, wages, and long-term workforce strategy? And why are some industries seeing more stability despite ongoing labor shortages? Trends Report Free Preview → https://hubs.la/Q03ybVV00 Trends Report Free Trial → https://itrondemand.com/store/product/trendsreport-free-trial

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down a major data week, including a downward revision to fourth quarter GDP and a sharp rise in inflation driven by geopolitical tensions. With CPI climbing and energy prices surging unevenly across markets, business leaders are facing a key challenge: how to manage rising costs without eroding demand. Lauren explores what these inflation pressures mean for pricing strategies, consumer behavior, and the broader economic outlook. While headlines point to volatility, the bigger question remains: will the Fed hold steady, cut rates, or be forced to act more aggressively? Watch now for key insights that can help you navigate uncertainty and make more informed decisions in the months ahead.

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Economist Taylor St. Germain breaks down why aerospace and defense are emerging as key growth opportunities while other manufacturing sectors face ongoing challenges. With civilian aircraft production forecasted to grow at a leading pace and defense orders accelerating into 2027, where should businesses be focusing their time and investment? If your industry is facing slowing demand or uneven recovery, this episode highlights where momentum is building and how to think strategically about diversification. Trends Report Free Preview → https://hubs.la/Q03ybVV00

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker examines how rising oil prices are complicating the Federal Reserve’s next move and what it means for businesses trying to plan in an uncertain environment. As energy costs climb, companies face margin pressure while consumers feel the strain at the pump. But does this inflationary shock justify higher interest rates, or could it slow growth enough to force rate cuts? Lauren also breaks down the latest retail sales data, revealing why strong headlines may be masking underlying weakness in consumer demand and what that signals for the months ahead. If you are navigating pricing pressure, demand uncertainty, or planning for the second half of 2026, this episode highlights the key signals you need to watch. Will rising costs force a shift in Fed policy, or will the economy absorb the shock?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the surge in AI investment, now exceeding $560 billion, and what it really means for businesses navigating rising labor costs and workforce shortages. While some industries are rapidly adopting AI, others are falling behind. What does this gap mean for your strategy? Discover where AI is gaining traction, why smaller firms are lagging, and why AI may not be the solution many expect for labor challenges in key sectors. Check out Brian and Connor's webinar presentation → https://itrondemand.com/store/product/profitless-prosperity

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Brian Beaulieu examines why rising producer prices and ongoing global uncertainty may keep the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates in 2026. With inflation pressures tied to oil and commodities still building, many businesses are struggling to separate headlines from reality. Brian breaks down what the data actually shows, why the Fed may stay cautious, and how shifting expectations could impact your planning strategy. He also shares insight into bond market stress, employment trends, and what companies should be doing now to protect margins before inflation accelerates again. If you are trying to make informed decisions in an uncertain environment, this episode will help you focus on what truly matters and avoid reacting to misleading signals. Are you planning based on headlines, or on the data that actually drives your business?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist Taylor St. Germain breaks down encouraging signs in manufacturing and capital expenditure growth, offering a much-needed positive outlook after a prolonged downturn. But with economic uncertainty beginning to rise again, how confident should businesses be in their 2026 plans? Learn what the latest data is signaling, where growth is coming from, and what risks could impact your strategy moving forward.

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down why the Fed held rates steady and what shifting market expectations signal for the year ahead. With rate cuts now pushed further into the future, many business leaders are asking: are we prepared for higher-for-longer interest rates? Lauren explores the growing possibility that the Fed’s next move may not be a cut at all. She also unpacks rising oil prices, inflation risks, and why today’s energy costs may not hit the economy as hard as in the past. Plus, insight into internal Fed debates and what leadership uncertainty could mean for policy direction. Are markets underestimating the risk of sustained or even rising rates?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the recent surge in oil prices following escalating tensions in the Middle East and what it means for businesses and consumers. With oil briefly pushing above $100 per barrel, many leaders are asking whether this spike signals sustained inflation and economic pressure. Taylor shares ITR Economics’ updated oil price forecast and explains why history suggests these price spikes may not last as long as headlines imply. He also explores how higher energy prices could affect consumer spending, retail sales, and business margins in the months ahead. Join ITR Economics Chief Economist Brian Beaulieu and Senior Forecaster Connor Lokar in our Executive Webinar on March 20 → https://itrondemand.com/store/product/profitless-prosperity

Want to Learn about having "you're own" ITR Economist on your team?→ https://promotions.itreconomics.com/en-us/insights-from-itr-economics Don't miss our Executive Webinar on March 20th→ https://itrondemand.com/store/product/profitless-prosperity This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down the latest inflation data and what it means for the Federal Reserve’s next move. With CPI and Core CPI still running above the Fed’s target, inflation remains stubbornly persistent, raising new questions for businesses and consumers alike. Lauren also examines how rising geopolitical tensions and potential disruptions in global oil supply could influence energy prices and consumer budgets. While the impact may be temporary, the combination of higher energy costs and growing electricity demand from AI and data centers could complicate the Fed’s path toward rate cuts. What does this mean for inflation trends, business planning, and the likelihood of interest rate relief this year? Watch the full episode to understand the forces shaping the economic outlook and what to watch next. 00:02 – Inflation remains sticky: CPI and Core CPI update 00:42 – Middle East tensions and risks to global oil supply 02:12 – How higher energy prices impact consumers 03:25 – Why energy costs matter less than they used to 04:05 – AI, data centers, and rising electricity demand 04:45 – What sticky inflation means for Fed rate cuts 05:30 – Other economic data: GDP, housing, and labor market 💬 Do you think the Fed will still be able to cut rates this year if inflation remains sticky?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain shares an update on the commercial construction outlook and why the industry may have already passed its cyclical low. While the data still shows contraction, key leading indicators suggest momentum is building for growth later this year. What signals should contractors and construction suppliers be watching right now? Trends Report Free Preview → https://hubs.la/Q03ybVV00

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker unpacks February’s surprising jobs report and explains why one weak headline number doesn’t necessarily signal trouble for the economy. With job losses making headlines and uncertainty lingering, many leaders are asking the same question: Is the labor market starting to crack? Lauren breaks down what’s really behind the data, from temporary healthcare job losses to ongoing labor shortages in key industries like manufacturing and construction. She also explores why wages are still rising and what that means for inflation, interest rates, and the Federal Reserve’s next move. For business leaders navigating slower growth and persistent inflation, the bigger risk may be something ITR calls “profitless prosperity.” What does that mean for your strategy in 2026? Are you making decisions based on headlines, or on what the data is actually telling us?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain examines the rapid growth in electricity infrastructure and what it means for your business strategy through 2030. With data center construction in 2025 and record highs in electric power transmission and distribution production, demand for energy is reshaping industrial markets. Rising electricity costs are adding pressure to margins and contributing to inflation in the second half of the decade. How should you position your business to capitalize on electrification growth while protecting profitability? Tune in for the data, the risks, and the long term opportunity.

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Connor Locar breaks down January’s hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index report and what it means for interest rates as we head into March. With inflation data coming in warm and money supply growth accelerating at the fastest pace in nearly four years, the likelihood of a near-term rate cut appears to be fading. At the same time, bond yields are dipping below 4 percent, raising new questions about growth expectations and market sentiment. Add in the latest 10 percent tariff action under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, and businesses are once again facing pricing uncertainty. If you are trying to plan capital spending, manage borrowing costs, or protect margins in an environment of persistent inflation pressure, this episode will help you frame what matters most right now. Are markets signaling confidence, or concern?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the latest labor market data and what it means for your workforce strategy in 2026. While employment growth is slowing, wage inflation remains elevated above historical norms, creating ongoing margin pressure for businesses. We examine industry specific wage trends, regional disparities, and why a role by role and state by state approach is critical in today’s environment. As the economy positions for growth in 2026 and 2027, is now the time to act on hiring and compensation strategy?

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down a major Supreme Court decision striking down the administration’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs, and what that means for inflation, business costs, and economic uncertainty ahead. With fourth quarter GDP coming in at 1.4% and core PCE inflation rising to 3%, headlines are painting a mixed picture. Is growth really faltering? Are inflation pressures reaccelerating? And how should business leaders interpret the latest data amid shifting trade policy? Lauren unpacks what is signal versus noise, why government shutdown effects matter, and why inflation may not fade as quickly as some hope. Most importantly, she explains why the tariff ruling does not automatically mean lower prices for businesses and consumers. If you are navigating margin pressure, pricing strategy decisions, or concerns about profitless prosperity, this episode offers critical context. What does this ruling really mean for your cost structure in 2026?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the downgrade to the 2026 US Single-Unit Housing Starts forecast. Despite lower mortgage rates and moderating home prices, affordability challenges remain a major headwind for builders, buyers, and industry suppliers. Why are most states still facing income deficits when it comes to buying a home? When will meaningful recovery begin? And which regions are positioned to outperform even in a down cycle? Tune in for the data-driven outlook and strategic insights to help you plan for 2026 and beyond. How is your region preparing for continued housing market pressure?