Many Happy Returns
by PensionCraft
Investing is the best way to build wealth, but comes with risk and uncertainty.Want to grow a portfolio of stocks, bonds, ETFs and more? This is the show to boost your knowledge and build your confidence.Join us on the journey through bull markets, bubbles and crashes. Bring snacks and a steady hand; we're in it for the long haul...Hosted by Ramin Nakisa (YouTube @PensionCraft) and Michael Pugh.Contact us: [email protected]
Episodes
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Inside an Index Fund: Why “Passive” Is a Misleading Word
Most of us think an index fund simply copies an index, which is why we call it passive. But someone has to decide how to trade every time the index changes. Ramin talks to Dale Brooksbank, Vanguard’s Head of Global Equity for Europe, about the active decisions behind tracking an index.…
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Seven Year Itch: The Portfolios That Tempt Us to Switch
We confess which core allocations tempt us to jump ship, and try to work out whether we’re responding to a real change in our lives or just a strategy that’s had a good run. --- Get in touch 📧 [email protected] 🎧 many-happy-returns.captivate.fm --- Join PensionCraft 🌐 Become a member at...
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Canary in the Data Centre: Is Credit Calling Time on AI?
The cost of insuring against Big Tech defaults has hit record highs, as massive data centre spending eats up free cashflow. Further down the AI food chain, markets are pricing in serious odds that CoreWeave defaults, and treating Oracle more like a junk borrower than a tech giant. Is the credit...
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Picking Winners: Can Concentration Keep Paying Off? with Stephen Yiu
The Blue Whale Growth Fund has delivered outsized returns since its inception nine years ago. Recently those returns have come from concentrated bets on the picks and shovels behind the AI boom. We talk to Stephen Yiu, Chief Investment Officer, about how he picks stocks, when he decides to sell,...
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Is Now the Time to Bet Big on Small-cap Value?
After a decade in the doghouse, small-cap value has had its best run in years, but almost nobody noticed. So is this a real premium that’s finally paying out, or just a good year for cheap stocks? We ask what actually drives returns and how you can buy them. --- Thank you to Trading 212 for...
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The High Life: Would You Rather Live in a High or Low-Yield Country?
A Swiss government bond pays half a percent a year. A British one pays more than five. Easy choice, you'd think. But yields can cut both ways. A low yield can mean the world trusts you with its money, or that your economy has stagnated. And high yields can be a sign of a strong economy, or that...
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Cancel Culture: What Happens When AI Agents Do Your Admin?
Many companies make their money from friction — forgotten subscriptions, tricky cancellations, loyalty penalties. Now AI agents promise to do all the tedious admin and save you money. So is this the end of the laziness tax? Are we about to see subscription-based moats collapse? --- Thank you to...
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Central Bank Dilemma: Would You Vote to Hike Rates?
Three hikes and a hold in eight days, all in answer to the same energy shock. So why did the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of Japan raise rates, while the Bank of England sat tight, despite facing the worst inflation path of the four? So would you vote to hike? --- Thank you to Lightyear for…
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The Madness of Markets, with Alex Edmans
Markets are meant to be efficient, yet somehow they keep producing meme-stock frenzies, CEO vanity projects, and wild booms and busts. We're joined by Alex Edmans — Professor of Finance at London Business School and author of The Madness of Markets — joins us to discuss why even smart investors...
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Will AI Hack My Accounts and Steal All My Money?
The Financial Stability Board says frontier AI is the most immediate threat to the financial system — above sovereign debt, private credit and equity valuations. As AI learns to find and exploit vulnerabilities faster than humans can patch them, are our banks about to be hacked? --- Thank you to...
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Mind Your Step: Before You Build a Bond Ladder
Bond ladders are a great way to feel in control of your money. A neat row of gilts maturing year after year, each one handing back its capital right on schedule. But before you buy your first rung, it's worth asking what the ladder is for, what you’re giving up for that certainty, and whether...
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Zero Sum: Investing in a World Without Growth
Humanity has just fallen below replacement fertility for the first time in history. A new paper challenges everything we thought we knew about population decline and economic growth. So what happens to your portfolio when the pie stops growing? And in the Dumb Question of the Week: Did the Black...
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Defending the Yen: Can Governments Beat Currency Markets?
The Japanese and US governments just spent an estimated $80 billion propping up the yen — and within a fortnight, the market had pocketed half of it. We ask whether politicians can ever actually beat currency traders. And in the Dumb Question of the Week: Why can't the government just pick…
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Record Profits: The Importance of Beating Earnings
Corporate America has just delivered its best earnings season in years — record beats, record margins, and growth numbers that look almost too good to be true. Which is convenient, because some of them are. Meanwhile, Europe is also delivering the goods. We discuss what's driving the blowout...
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Senior Management: Who Looks After Your Money When You Can't?
Your ability to manage money declines steadily after sixty. Yet your confidence in that ability doesn't decline at all, so mistakes get made with total conviction and go unnoticed, especially by you. What you can do now to protect your portfolio before you reach old age? And in the Dumb Question…
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Beta Noire: Unsolved Mysteries of the Market
Economists have spent half a century building elegant models of how markets work, and the markets have spent half a century ignoring them. We investigate the great unsolved mysteries of investing. And in the Dumb Question of the Week: If nobody can explain why stocks beat bonds, why are we...
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Gilt Complex: Is Britain in Hock to the Bond Market?
Andy Burnham once said Britain had to “get beyond being in hock to the bond market”. That’s easier said than done when gilt yields are 5%, debt interest is running above £100bn a year, and the autumn Budget has no headroom left. Can the UK escape fiscal fatalism? And in the Dumb Question of the...
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The Declaration of Outperformance: Is America Still Exceptional?
Warren Buffett says “never bet against America”. But plenty of people spent the last eighteen months doing exactly that — betting the dollar would be dethroned and the "Sell America" trade would finally pay off. They're still waiting. We ask whether the United States is still exceptional, or just...
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Portfolio Positions: Your Starting XI of Asset Classes
As the World Cup reaches the quarter finals, we name our starting XI of asset classes. From the goalkeeper who does nothing for eighty-nine minutes to the super-sub you should never mistake for a starter. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Does the World Cup affect stock prices? --- Thank...
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Your Career is a High-Yield Bond (And It’s Probably Junk)
Your "Human Capital" might be the largest asset you own, and it behaves like a bond. Seeing your career as a volatile asset might change how you think about saving, investing, and employment. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Do I need Income Protection Insurance? --- Thank you to Raisin…
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Sequence and Sensibility: Is Now a Good Time to Retire?
On paper, now looks like a fine time to retire. Annuity rates are generous, gilts finally pay a real return, and even cash earns its keep. But retire into a richly-valued market and a bad first few years can ravage a pot you can't easily rebuild. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Can you...
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How the AI Investment Boom Ends, with Tom Stevenson
The AI boom has all the signs of a bubble. An exciting new technology, stretched valuations, extreme concentration, circular financing, and uncertain cash flows. But how does it all end? Tom Stevenson joins us to game it out: a dot-com-style pop? A slow puncture? Or is this time really different?...
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Paws and Reflect: The Surprising Science of Who Wins at Investing
The best investors aren't necessarily the cleverest, the best-paid, or the most daring. In fact the evidence suggests they're closer to the opposite. We look at the backgrounds and temperaments that may outperform. And in the Dumb Question of the Week: Are cats better stockpickers than fund...
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Reserve Judgment: How To Run a Central Bank
The Powell era is over — a pandemic, two wars, and the worst inflation in four decades. We ask whether JPow did a good job, or just survived it. Now Kevin Warsh inherits the chair. But what actually changes? Beneath the handover lie bigger questions: what a central bank is really for, who it...
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Space Oddity: Is the Biggest IPO in History a Problem for Index Funds?
The largest IPO in history is three weeks away. SpaceX is aiming for a valuation of almost $2 trillion despite reporting massive losses. We ask what happens when our beloved index funds are forced to buy the AI giants, whatever the price? And in the Dumb Question of the Week: Why does an IPO need...
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Rising Yields: Gilty Until Proven Innocent?
With gilt yields at their highest since 1998 — has the bond market finally lost patience with Britain? We ask whether this is really a UK problem, if the Bank of England is pouring petrol on the fire, and whether gilt yields above 5% are a bargain or a trap. And in today’s Dumb Question of the...
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Britain's Slow-Motion House Price Crash
For two decades, calling a UK house price crash has been a reliable way to look clever and be wrong. But while nominal prices have barely moved, a slow grind is reshaping affordability, rents and the housebuilding sector. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Are short-term fixed-rate…
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Making Sense of a Weird Market: Record Highs, Sticky Inflation, and Silent Alarms
Stocks have rallied to record highs while the Iran war is merely paused, oil prices are elevated, and inflation remains sticky. But while equity investors cheer the recovery, is the bond market quietly telling a different story? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What is the crack spread?...
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Do Your Own Research: What Real Investment Research Actually Looks Like
"Do Your Own Research" is one of the most parroted phrases in investing — slapped on every stock tip, TikTok video and crypto tweet. But what does good research actually look like for a retail investor? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Do contrarian investors actually make money?…
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Statistical Sleight of Hand: How Good Numbers Hide Bad Investments
The investing world runs on numbers. We look at the statistical tricks that make bad investments look good, mediocre track records look brilliant, and risks disappear entirely. And in the Dumb Question of the Week: What makes a finding 'statistically significant'? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for...
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Shopping the Drop: Is Anything Actually Cheap?
After weeks of market turmoil, asset prices across the board are lower than they were. But is anything actually cheap yet? We grab our valuation toolkit and go bargain hunting across stocks, bonds, and commodities to find out what's on sale. And in the Dumb Question of the Week: Does valuation…
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Your Portfolio Wasn't Built for This
Your portfolio was probably designed for falling interest rates and cheap oil. That is no longer the world we live in. Equity indices have minimal energy exposure. Bonds amplify losses during a rising rate environment. And even gold is down 20% from its peak. So what you can actually do when the...
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The War of Unintended Consequences: Oil, Inflation, and Interest Rates
You've seen the oil price soar. But crude is just the start—the Iran conflict is sending shockwaves through natural gas, fertiliser, helium and a host of other commodities we take for granted. What does it all mean for inflation, interest rates, and how you might want to position your portfolio?...
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Damien Talks Money: What Investors Click vs. What They Need
What does popular finance content reveal about everyday investors? Damien Jordan from Damien Talks Money joins us to explore the gap between the videos people click on and the information they actually need. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Has making finance content changed how you...
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Capital Preservation: The Art of Not Losing Money, with Jasmine Yeo from Ruffer
No one likes to lose money. And some funds are designed to deliver a positive return whether markets go up, down, or sideways. Sounds easy. It isn't. We’re joined by Jasmine Yeo, fund manager at Ruffer, to discuss the art of capital preservation. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: If…
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The Tariffs Are Dead. Long Live the Tariffs.
The US Supreme Court struck down Trump's tariffs in a landmark 6-3 ruling, and Trump responded by immediately imposing new ones under a different law. We look at what the ruling actually means and whether any of this changes the outlook for investors. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week…
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Crypto Winter 2.0: Be Careful What You Wish For?
Bitcoin has had everything going for it: a crypto-friendly president, ETF approval, congressional legislation, institutional adoption, a strategic reserve executive order. And yet the price has halved from its all-time high. So what’s going on? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What…
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Kiss Your SaaS Goodbye: The AI Threat to Software Stocks
A trillion dollars was wiped off software stocks after Anthropic released an AI legal tool. Suddenly the market is asking: if AI agents can do the work, why pay for the software? The "SaaSpocalypse" has dragged everything from Microsoft to Salesforce down double digits, leaving Wall Street split…
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Gold & Silver Crash: Is Bullion’s Bull Run Over?
After an incredible run, gold and silver just suffered their worst day in over forty years. Gold fell 11%. Silver dropped 30%. So what caused the crash? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Why do we spend billions digging gold out of a hole, just to put it back in a different hole?…
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Vanguard Goes Global: Is Home Bias a Mistake?
After a decade of UK underperformance, Vanguard is going global. The UK’s most popular fund range is dialling back the domestic tilt, and launching a purely market-cap weighted alternative. We look at what's changing, whether you need to do anything, and if home bias is actually a mistake. And in...
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Does Europe Have the Financial Firepower to Stand Up to Trump?
President Trump is threatening tariffs on eight NATO allies to force a deal on Greenland. Europe says it isn’t for sale. So what happens when an immovable object meets an unpredictable force? Tit-for-tat counter-tariffs, an untested “trade bazooka,” or the nuclear option: leveraging $8 trillion…
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Investing in Crazy Times: Should You Carry on as Normal?
The US has captured Venezuela’s president, the White House is openly threatening to invade a NATO ally, and the Fed Chair is under politically-motivated criminal investigation. Apart from that, everything's fine. But should you actually change anything about your portfolio? Or is "carrying on as...
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Investing vs. Gambling: How to Tell the Difference
Where does investing end and gambling begin? From Premium Bonds to meme stocks to deep-out-of-the-money options, today’s markets are full of bets that look a lot like lottery tickets. The line between rational risk-taking and pure chance has never been blurrier. So what really separates a...
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2026 Watchlist: Trends That Could Shape the Year Ahead
2026 is here, and markets are shifting in surprising ways. From jobless growth to energy gluts, we look at the trends that could shape the global economy over the coming year. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Are we still on track for the Roaring 20s? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for...
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10 Investing Facts That Can't be True (But Are)
We challenge your assumptions about stocks, property, economic growth and more, with ten facts that seem impossible—but aren't. Stocks beat cash, right? GDP growth helps returns, doesn't it? And war tanks the stock market... right? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What can Christmas…
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The Naughty List: Assets That Misbehaved in 2025
Which assets made The Naughty List this year? Some of 2025's most confident calls turned into cautionary tales—from momentum trades that stalled to consensus positions that backfired. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is any asset immune to interest rates? --- Thank you to Trading 212 for...
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The 2025 Stress Test: The Banks Are Safe... Are You?
The Bank of England has just released the results of its 2025 stress test. In their nightmare scenario, inflation surges, house prices tumble, markets tank… and all seven major UK banks still pass. So the financial system might survive a crash. But would you? And in today’s Dumb Question of the...
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Devil in the Details: Is the Budget Worse Than Imagined for Investors?
Buried in the Budget’s “boring” fine print is a sweeping overhaul of ISAs, new stealth taxes, and rule changes designed to squeeze anyone living off their assets. So, what’s really changing and what can you do to protect your money? And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: Is now the time to...
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The Physics of Financial Markets
Do the hard laws of thermodynamics apply to your money? What can avalanches, boiling water, and quantum mechanics teach us about markets? We explore where physics meets finance—and what it reveals about volatility, crashes and portfolio decay. And in today’s Dumb Question of the Week: What should...
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How to Pick Your Perfect Portfolio, with Tyler from Portfolio Charts
Designing an investment portfolio that matches your goals is hard. Sticking with it through thick and thin is even harder. Today, we’re delighted to be joined by the creator of Portfolio Charts to consider risk, return, drawdowns and—crucially—your own behaviour, so you can find something that...
About this show
Investing is the best way to build wealth, but comes with risk and uncertainty.Want to grow a portfolio of stocks, bonds, ETFs and more? This is the show to boost your knowledge and build your confidence.Join us on the journey through bull markets, bubbles and crashes. Bring snacks and a steady hand; we're in it for the long haul...Hosted by Ramin Nakisa (YouTube @PensionCraft) and Michael Pugh.Contact us: [email protected]
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