PODCAST · business
McKeany-Flavell Hot Commodity Podcast
by McKeany-Flavell
Empowering clients with commercial intelligence, supply chain expertise,and risk management solutions.
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100
September WASDE wrap-up
Wheat Subtle changes for 2025/26 global balance sheet Significant changes to world wheat production Corn 2026/27 U.S. corn yield lowered as expected Global ending stocks projected lower Soybean complex U.S. soybean ending stocks lowered for 2026/27 Edible oils Veg oil stocks may be misleading depending on this year’s production/weather Sugar 2025/25 high-tier imports increased to record number 2026/27 beet and cane forecast lowered Don’t miss our next live webinar on Sep. 23! Live Energy Market Update: Shaping Food & Beverage Procurement Costs Clients, check your inbox. Everyone else can register by going to mckeany-flavell.com Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
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99
Russia/Ukraine headlines drive another volatile week for grain markets
Renewed peace headlines ease some of the geopolitical risk premium in wheat Will it hold heading into the September WASDE next Friday, Sept. 11? Fundamentally, global wheat stocks could improve? Pay attention to next week if prices continue to ease Potential buying opportunity? Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President
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98
What’s in store for the sugar & corn harvests
Sugar beet pre-pile harvest is underway Do early signs look promising? Corn harvest is nearly upon us Will yield concerns mute typical harvest pressure? Grains futures have become the story as we enter corn sweetener negotiations Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
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97
Beyond the fundamentals: How commodity markets are being impacted globally
Making sense of all that’s happening in the world Potential impact on commodity and ingredient markets in the months to come What are the fundamentals saying? What’s happening geopolitically? How do equity, currency, and treasury markets potentially play into this? Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
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96
Black Sea headline risk & wheat volatility
Wheat prices continue to rise off concerns in the Black Sea Russia and Ukraine exchanging new attacks Possible truce proposal this week? August flow of grains down ~75% so far for Russia Real concerns, but for how long? And how impactful? Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President
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95
August WASDE: Surprises, concerns, & a few big upsets
Corn & soy complex Oh boy! More U.S. corn production and less ending stocks (and lower yield?) Wild Midwest weather and upside market bias Soybean changes benign, but spillovers from other markets supporting soybeans/soybean products Wheat Wheat takes a back seat with only limited changes in August WASDE However, starting to see early signs appear from the Ukraine/Russian conflict and Black Sea constraints Sugar Major changes for 2025/26 beet sugar A surprise for 2026/27 beet estimate Florida cane down more than expected Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
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94
Key takeaways from the ASA (American Sugar Alliance) Symposium
Section 301 tariffs are in place Congress/USTR continue work with USDA on increasing high-tier duties Beet sugar crop: more optimism than expected Could the crop end up larger than USDA is reporting? Cane crop under attack from mealybug Could this stunt cane growth and sugar content in both Florida and Louisiana? Congress optimistic to get a Farm Bill passed before mid-term elections Host: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
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93
Sugar market for 2027 looks a lot like 2025
Unforeseen improvement in sugar deliveries, up 2% Reduced sugar beet acreage, lower projected production Recalibration of imports, larger quota for Mexico reduces high-tier Sugar prices for 2027 have bottomed Did you miss our webinar on Wednesday? Behind the Packaging Price with Nicole Thomas and special guest, Michael Workman, Executive Director at RTi Global/ResinSmart Watch now on our IQ platform! Not an IQ subscriber? Reach out to us to learn more! Host: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
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92
What’s driving the edible oil markets?
What’s driving edible oil markets currently (and potentially, in the months to come)? Any oilseed-specific concerns that could impact veg oil prices? How does an oil buyer address this degree of uncertainty/volatility? Next Wednesday, don’t miss our live webinar! Behind the Packaging Price: What Resin Markets Are Telling Buyers Right Now With special guest, Michael Workman, Executive Director at RTi Global/ResinSmart, Clients, check your inbox. Everyone else can register by going to mckeany-flavell.com Host: Eric Thornton, Vice President Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
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91
“Strait” talk on inflation & hot topics in grains
Wheat rallying off Black Sea export constraints Will we re-test the early May highs? Inflation cools and consumer sentiment climbs, but for how long? Iran threatens to close another strait connecting the Red Sea, potentially shutting in more crude oil Index funds retreated in June from record levels Could buying reignite if crude prices remain elevated? Don’t miss our next live webinar! Behind the Packaging Price: What Resin Markets Are Telling Buyers Right Now With special guest, Michael Workman, Executive Director at RTi Global/ResinSmart Clients, check your inbox. Everyone else can register by going to mckeany-flavell.com Host/Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management
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90
July WASDE: No fireworks but markets still excited
Corn & soy complex U.S. corn ending stocks growing tighter for 2026/27 Less carry-in, more production, and more exports for U.S. soybeans Soybean oil balance sheet unchanged but external factors carrying more weight with prices Wheat U.S. wheat ending stocks decline further by 22 million bushels Wheat crop in the U.S. projected smallest since 1970 at 1.536 million bushels Thankfully, weaker U.S. demand is keeping stocks-to-use ratio declines in check Sugar Beet forecasts lower due to crop development and weather concerns Mexico’s baseline imports set Food deliveries set little higher than expected Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
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89
The impact on sugar of U.S. declining to renew the USMCA
USMCA trade pact update: The details How will it impact Suspension Agreements? Will Mexico target HFCS imports? Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
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88
Current spring row crop conditions: How we lookin’, are we cookin'?
How are things looking for sugar, spring wheat, corn, and soybeans? Record potentials? Looming threats? Heatwaves in the U.S. and France are coming: How concerning are they? Acreage and stock expectations for next Tuesday’s reports More corn? Not a client on McKeany-Flavell’s IQ Intelligence Platform? Visit mckeany-flavell.com to learn more! Commodity dashboards Dynamic data & interactive charts Analytics & calculators Price forecasts Downloadable data, charts, and tables Host: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President
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87
A seminal shake-up at the FOMC!
Exiting forward guidance Five new tasks forces to help steer policy Hawkish tone in general A commitment to deliver price stability Next week, don’t miss our Live Seasonal Market Outlook webinar! Wed., June 24, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT Clients, invites are going out now, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management
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86
June WASDE: All quiet on the WASDE front, mostly
Corn & soy complex U.S. corn crop looks great so far, much to be determined regarding global production for 2026/27 Bio-based diesel consumption of vegetable oil indicated as strong domestically and globally. Wheat Small crops get smaller…. Hard Red winter wheat lowered another 18 million bushels Stocks down 20% YOY at now 744 million bushels Spring wheat crop conditions are excellent: could help increase the all-wheat yield in the future Sugar US sugar production increase was the headline: up +253,000 short tons USDA decided to increase food demand by +126,000 tons; is it real demand? Stocks to use improved from 13.5 to 14.3 percent = adequately balanced Live Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar Wed., June 24, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT Sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com Host: Shawn Bingham, CAIA, Director of Risk Management Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President
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85
Corn sweeteners outlook for 2027
Corn crop in the ground on time Will it lose acres to soybeans? Entering a high-demand period Will the upcoming World Cup provide a spike in HFCS use? Next week: Ingredion must announce its intention to make a formal bid for Tate & Lyle Our next webinar: Seasonal Market Outlook Wed., June 24, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT Invites rolling out soon! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
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84
The Grim Reaper speaks! (on soybean & palm oil markets)
Looking toward the “futures” and determining “good value” Soybean oil futures market evolution since the start of the Iran war What happened in deferred contracts? Is palm oil next? Comparing the last strong El Niño event against an impending one A look at pricing dynamics for Malaysian palm oil futures (BMD exchange) Not a client on McKeany-Flavell’s IQ Intelligence Platform? Visit iq.mckeany-flavell.com to learn more! Commodity dashboards Dynamic data & interactive charts Analytics & calculators Price forecasts Downloadable data, charts, and tables Our next webinar: Seasonal Market Outlook Wed., Jun 24, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT Invites rolling out soon! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
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83
Sugar planting progress updates + LIVE from the Sweets & Snacks Expo!
Sugar Beet crop progress is a mixed bag but still optimistic for a good crop Cane production appears to be progressing well despite winter freeze Sweets & Snacks Expo Who attended this year? Flavors and promotions seen on the floor Nostalgic brands and lots of sour! What was Mike’s favorite candy? Save the date for our next webinar! Seasonal Market Outlook Wed., June 24, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT Invites rolling out soon! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
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82
Current factors impacting the cocoa & chocolate market
Forecasted Super El Niño and its effect on cocoa Expect dry conditions: Is it already occurring? High fertilizer prices and how they will impact 2026/27 production Chocolate manufacturers heeding the demand of consumers What are some alternatives for cocoa content? Don’t miss next week’s webinar! Wheat Market Update Wed., May 20, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT Clients, invites are going out now, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Marilyn Adutwum, Data Analyst
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81
May WASDE: First look at 2026/27 crop year!
Wheat Wow! goes the WASDE for wheat USDA gives bullish outlook Another wow! Hard red winter wheat production down 36% YOY 2026/27 ending stocks projected down sharply Corn & soy complex 2025/26 changes relatively nominal Corn stocks to tighten in 2026/27 New crop soybean and soybean oil balance sheets show more of the same (in some regards) Sugar 2025/26 ending stocks up on higher imports 2026/27 sugar production forecast to fall, with beet down how much? U.S. sugar beet plantings slow, but improving in the last week Our next webinar: Wheat Market Update Wed., May 20, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT Clients, invites are going out now, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
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80
Discussing consumer trends with Sarah Muller of Jogue
How to build a product for the long term in the GLP-1 space How to market to Gen Z and Millennials Combating “wellness fatigue” as a brand with a case study See Sarah at Sweets & Snacks Expo, Supplier Showcase, May 18 at 2pm Our next webinar: Wheat Market Update Wed., May 20, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT Clients, invites are going out now, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com Happy Mother’s Day! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Sarah Muller, Senior Director of Global Flavor Solutions at Jogue
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79
Sugar beet plantings update: A mixed bag through April
Planting progress: Idaho is 83% planted, well ahead of normal Plains region looking average Red River Valley and Michigan, slow to start What’s the reason? Latest update on the Farm Bill Clarity for farmers? Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
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78
Energy & economy update: More on the critical inflection point
Ceasefire talks back on in Pakistan Is WTI crude oil stabilizing? What’s the Fed’s next move? Clients favoring risk aversion Did you miss our U.S. Economy Update Webinar: Critical Inflection Point on Wednesday? Watch now on our IQ platform! Not an IQ subscriber? Reach out to us to learn more! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management
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77
Edible oil markets down, hooray!
News of transit through the Strait of Hormuz collapses crude oil futures Spillover effect pressuring soybean and palm oil futures What’s the timeline for a return to “normal” markets? A quick review of the current fundamentals Our next webinar: U.S. Economy Update Webinar Wed., April 22, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT Clients, invites are going out now, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com Host: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
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76
April WASDE & summer is approaching!
Sugar Higher sugar imports leads to offsetting higher deliveries Stocks-to use ratio left unchanged Wheat U.S. and wheat global stocks rise, leading to a neutral to bearish April WASDE Expect more changes in the May WASDE to food and export demand, and new-crop 2026/27 first looks Corn & soy complex U.S. corn balance sheet unchanged, global ending stocks improve Soybean supplies remain adequate in the U.S., ample globally More food use of soybean oil? What will be the real stocks level for U.S. soybean oil? Our next webinar: U.S. Economy Update Webinar Wed., April 22, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT Clients, invites are going out now, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
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75
Weather & the jobs market
Weather Winter wheat relief ahead? Potential for rains that are desperately needed 65% of U.S. winter wheat in drought conditions: Highest since 2022 Jobs Headline jobs data beats expectations Wage growth is easily outpacing inflation Underlying long-term trends are still concerning Save the date for our next webinar! Economy Update Webinar Wed., April 22, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT Invites to be out soon Host: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management
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74
Taking the over or the under? USDA releases Grain Stocks & Prospective Plantings reports
Corn & soy complex Corn and soybean acres fall within acreage expectations, but what will the numbers actually look like by late June? Stocks seem adequate for both corn and soybeans The difference maker will be where those stocks reside Wheat Not the best fundamental news for wheat buyers All wheat acres forecasted at an all-time low of 43.8 million acres 2026/27 production decline risk is very likely with fewer acres, and the hard red winter wheat crop is currently dealing with a weather issue Ending stocks up 5%: Deficit risk in the long term? Sugar Beet sugar area down 1.5% Host/Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President
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73
Sugar: Mayhem is everywhere
Forfeitures or no forfeitures is a big question Nearly 1.0 billion lbs of sugar under loan in Idaho Is that a real threat? March planting intentions coming out on Tuesday What to expect: Slight decline compared to last year? Did you miss our Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar on Wednesday? Watch now on our IQ platform! Not an IQ subscriber? Reach out to us to learn more! Host/Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
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72
Latest updates on weather, war, wheat, economy, & inflation
W.W.W. Weather + War + Wheat = volatility! Current conditions for winter wheat are growing concerning Some better hope for rain in April? W.E.I. War + Energy + Inflation = economic chaos! Iran waging economic war via energy Inflation expectations are rising Most Fed members now see the funds rate unchanged for 2026 Commodity buyers should be vigilant on near-term coverage Don’t miss our webinar next week! Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar: Navigating the Opportunities & Risks Ahead Wed., March 25, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT Clients, be on the lookout for your invite next week, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management
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71
Energy update on a perfectly timed Friday the 13th
Iran’s nuclear option is the Strait of Hormuz Emergency oil release reaction was muted Risk remains highly elevated Be proactive about adding soybean oil coverage Our next webinar is fast approaching! Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar: Navigating the Opportunities & Risks Ahead Wed., March 25, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT Clients, be on the lookout for your invite next week, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com Host/Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management
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70
March WASDE: Few changes but pay attention
Corn & soy complex U.S. soy and corn balance sheets relatively unchanged Interesting changes to U.S. soybean oil consumption Wheat No changes in U.S. balance sheet Should USDA have increased exports? Attention shifting to new crop 2026/27 with 2025/26 set in stone Sugar Florida cane production lowered from early February freeze High-tier imports increased Our next webinar is fast approaching! Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar: Navigating the Opportunities & Risks Ahead Wed., March 25, 2026 at 2pm ET / 11am PT Clients, be on the lookout for your invite next week, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
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69
Latest consumer trends weighing on the food & beverage space
New MAHA food pyramid could lead to changing consumption GLP-1 and weight management drugs grow in usage What’s a food and/or beverage manufacturer to do in this environment? Save the date for our next webinar! Seasonal Market Outlook Webinar: Navigating the Opportunities & Risks Ahead Wed., March 25, 2026 Clients, be on the lookout for your invite next week, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services Expert: Marilyn Adutwum, Data Analyst
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68
Recap of the 2026 International Sweetener Colloquium
Held in beautiful Championsgate, FL: How was the weather? Demand for sugar and sweeteners pressured from growing GLP-1 use and SNAP restrictions Tariffs are off and then back on again? 2027 negotiations appear to be in no hurry Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
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67
Market updates amid today's Supreme Court ruling
Wheat Wheat is worth watching now: futures rallying to six-month highs Long-term bearish outlook still most likely Sugar Sugar forfeiture risk and product reformulations will be two non-traditional drivers for the 2027 market Soy complex Trade and profitability: soybean supply and consumption may hinge on those factors Energy markets, be it biofuel or crude oil, soybean oil prices are at the mercy of energy markets, domestic politics, and the geopolitical environment Corn Corn acreage and consumption: lower YOY acreage (with likely good carry-in for 2026/27) against feed consumption now, ethanol consumption later Host/Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President
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66
"Be mine" for a Valentine's Cocoa market update
World demand down How’s the weather looking for the mid-crop season? What about surplus? What’s the recent news from Ghana? Arrival numbers have been hard to come by; now we know why! Current market price and recommendations for coverage going forward Happy Valentine’s Day! Host: Eric Thornton, VP Expert: Marilyn Adutwum, Data Analyst
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65
February WASDE: How typical for this time of year?
Sugar Louisiana record cane crop boosted USDA cleans up 2024/25 delivery figures Wheat Changes minimal (as expected) for wheat Small decrease to food demand bumps up ending stocks Could we reach 1 billion bushels in ending stocks for new crop 2026/27? Corn & soy complex U.S. corn balance sheet showing slightly lower ending stocks; still neutral to bearish Nothing new and enlightening for soybeans or soybean oil, in the U.S. anyway Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
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64
Risks shaping the plastic resin market in 2026 with RTi Global
Why 2026 feels fundamentally different from prior resin cycles How polyethylene supply discipline and inventory management are driving price behavior The growing disconnect between resin indices and real transaction pricing Nonmarket adjustments and why they create confusion—and risk—for buyers What resin buyers should actually be watching right now Host: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services Guest Expert: Michael Workman, Growth Director at ResinSmart by RTi Global Guest Expert: Kevin Mekaru, Senior Business Unit Lead, Commodity Plastic Resin, RTi Global www.resinsmart.ai
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63
A big week for the Federal Reserve & future monetary policy
Fed leaves rates unchanged as expected Powell says the levels of uncertainty around employment and inflation have diminished Trump taps Kevin Warsh to head the Fed next PPI inflation comes in a little hot Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management
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62
What to expect at next week’s ASGA conference
ASGA is celebrating 50 years of excellence! What will be discussed? Farm incomes dropping Imperative to get beet payments up for the 2026/27 crop year Sugar growers going through generational change Need to support young farmers of America Is the rebound in beet sugar deliveries sustainable? Did you miss our Key Ingredients in 2026 Webinar on Wednesday? Watch now on our IQ platform! Not an IQ subscriber? Reach out to us to learn more! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
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61
Diving deep into wheat reports
Winter Wheat Seedings report Current look at winter wheat conditions and weather U.S. exports capped at 900 million bushels? Recommendations for strategy and coverage Join us next Wednesday, January 21 for our first webinar of the year! Key Ingredients in 2026 Webinar: Anticipate Volatility & Plan Effectively Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com Host: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President
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60
January WASDE: Corn puts on a show!
Corn & soy complex Bearish surprise for U.S. corn via production Soybean ending stocks higher as a result of paltry export demand What gives with U.S. soybean oil stocks? Sugar Louisiana cane production forecast breaks record! Sugar deliveries forecast to drop, but by how much? Wheat Catch up with wheat S&D on this Friday’s pod! Join us Wednesday, January 21 for our first webinar of the year! Key Ingredients in 2026 Webinar: Anticipate Volatility & Plan Effectively Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
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59
U.S. economy & weather: Passing grades (for now)
Economy Lackluster headline jobs growth with revisions lower Unemployment rate reverses recent uptick Fed still eyes 50-basis-point rate cuts this year Weather NOAA’s latest forecast reveals a potential El Niño in H2 2026? What crops could be affected? Current conditions in the U.S. have been drier due to the weak La Niña weather pattern Join us on Wednesday, January 21 for our first webinar of the year! Key Ingredients in 2026 Webinar: Anticipate Volatility & Plan Effectively Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President
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58
Our predictions for 2026: On your mark, get set, go!
Corn wet milling Investments made will impact availability of liquid sweeteners Sugar World sugar stays under 17 cents per lb Brazil: Another monster crop STU goes up: 18% by summer More forfeitures during the summer months Wheat U.S. acreage at an all-time low Global production output to be more like last year’s than this year’s output (800 MMT vs. 837 MMT) Soy complex & edible oils Resurgence in biofuel production Conventional canola oil is the least expensive option for a good chunk of 2026 Impact of weight management drugs continues Anti-seed oil trend to pick up traction Economy & energy Three rate cuts during 2026: 2.75% to 3.00% CPI: 2.6% for 2026 Inflation likely to tick up by year's end Crude oil: $55 to $56 a barrel Happy New Year! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist Expert: Eric Thornton, Vice President Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management
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57
'Twas the week before Christmas...
...and Nicole's got the mic, rhyming her way through a poem that is sure to be liked. Happy holidays from McKeany-Flavell! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
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56
Soybean oil: A wild ride in 2025! What's next for 2026?
Soybean oil futures Why do we keep coming back to the same spot? Soybean oil in biofuels A combo of the known and unknown Food consumption Consumer trends of all forms to drive demand GLP-1s: A fad or here to stay? Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services
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55
December WASDE: The last one for 2025 & USDA punts!
USDA punts any U.S. production changes to January Expect more volatility and market attention next month Corn The only change? Increase to exports Soy complex No changes to the U.S. soybean balance sheet Wheat Ditto for U.S. wheat balance sheet: No changes Global wheat production rose further Now a 5% increase vs. 2024/25 Sugar Beet sugar production lowered, while cane increased Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Eric Thornton, VP Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
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54
Around the world (sugar) in 16 minutes!
Ethanol from corn and high sugar share increasing Brazil production in 2024/25 Global surplus pressuring world # 11 sugar prices When will low prices impact production? Missed Wednesday’s webinar on Systematic Timing Models? Watch now on our IQ platform! Not an IQ subscriber? Reach out to us to learn more! Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist
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53
Potential market movers for the balance of 2025
FOMC decision on Dec. 10 Crude oil production vs. demand Supreme Court ruling on Trump tariffs Dec. 9 WASDE Next Wednesday is our last webinar of 2025! Procurement Timing Models: Taking the Emotion Out of Procurement Wed., December 3, 11am PT / 2pm ET Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up now at mckeany-flavell.com Happy Thanksgiving! Host/Expert: Eric Thornton, VP Expert: Shawn Bingham, Director of Commodity Risk Management
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52
What's ahead for the sugar market in 2026
Will the closure of refining cause some regional tightness? Burdensome inventories for both beet and cane Will it keep pressure on prices? The International Sweetener Colloquium is now on the radar! Come prepared to talk 2027 Mark your calendars for our next webinar! Procurement Timing Models: Taking the Emotion Out of Procurement Wed., December 3, 11am PT / 2pm ET Clients, be on the lookout for your invite, or anyone can sign up for both now at mckeany-flavell.com Host/Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist Expert: Craig Ruffolo, Vice President – Commodity Specialist
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51
November WASDE: It’s back!
Corn Downward revision to usage for feed and residual Soy complex Soybean carry-in lowered a bit Most puzzling was soybean oil! Wheat U.S. balance sheet as expected Higher production boosts U.S. stocks Global wheat production increases galore! Sugar Massive adjustments to sugar deliveries Both beet and cane production lowered Host: Michael Caughlan, President & CEO Expert: Nicole Thomas, Vice President – Information Services Expert: Kevin Combs, Vice President – Global Sweeteners Specialist Expert: Eric Thornton, VP
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ABOUT THIS SHOW
Empowering clients with commercial intelligence, supply chain expertise,and risk management solutions.
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McKeany-Flavell
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