Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist

How the Fed and the European Central Bank may avoid a sovereign crisis. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

A US housing slump in the first half of 2023 should be followed in the second half by an oil and gas boom. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox explains why the Australian Economy can keep growing when other countries have recessions. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

A high US dollar and the prospect of falling inflation are encouraging investment in Australian and Canadian bonds. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Back in September, we said the ASX 200 would rally as we came into October and November. Now we can again say why. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox thinks the FED funds rate will peak at 5.35% in March 2023. Meanwhile, the RBA continues to slowly follow the FED. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Young Werther and Gold Trip are our best-value bets. Remember our recommendation is for the best value bet rather than the highest probability of winning. Gamble responsibly. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

The treasurer's main problem is distributing the benefits of the commodities boom. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Strong growth in energy demand in the Indo Pacific not just Europe is driving up the LNG price. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Rapid growth in the Indo Pacific is generating strong demand for Australian energy exports. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Jay Plays Tough: Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist by Morgans Financial

The RBA will continue to tighten rates into our Australian Resources Boom. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Likely seasonal weakness at the end of September should be followed by a stronger equities market in the final quarter. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

A peak in core inflation allows an easing of bond yields which together with improved earnings support US equities. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

More rate hikes are still to come this year, but the RBA is confident they will master inflation in 2023 and 2024. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

The FED lifted interest rates by 75 basis points and says that further rises will continue. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Michele Bullock has suggested that the real neutral rate is one to one and a half percent. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

The FED needs to slow employment growth from 372,00 per month to 100,000 per month. This will likely lead to another 75 basis point rate hike in July 2022. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

The Fed and the RBA are pulling Pandemic support as rapidly as they dare. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

US slowdown, Australian boom. Chicago FED National Activity Index: https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/cfnai/current-data Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

The ASX 200 is the most undervalued it's been since 2012 and 2013. It needs time to base. A strong rally is likely by the end of 2022. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

The Federal Reserve hikes rates by 75 basis points and tells us they saved the US economy from recession. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

The Australian cash rate is rising with the US effective fed funds rate as rates “normalise” to remove extraordinary pandemic stimulus. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Michael shows how to use the Chicago Fed National Activity Indicator at chicagofed.org to see if a US recession is near. Chicago Fed National Activity Index: https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/cfnai/current-data Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

US GDP growth should slow but low US unemployment should bring rising living standards. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

The RBA forecast for core inflation has risen to 4.75% in 2022. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

We show how to examine the US yield curve to find out when recession is near. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

The Fed intends to Sell $US720 billion of Treasury bonds and $US420 billion of Mortgage-backed securities per year, to force up US long-term yields and slow the US Economy. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

How US budget deficits have driven the Australian commodities boom. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Unemployment is the lowest in decades. Scarce Labour will now drive up real wages. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

The Feds Rate Hikes and quantitative tightening haul down US inflation. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

War risk makes it impossible for ships to get insurance to load Russian cargo in the northern black sea. This cripples Russian exports of cargoes of Russia’s own oil and its own wheat. Russians have an incentive to end the war sooner rather than later. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU #Economy #Russia #Ukraine

The Germans are the important players not the Americans. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

We analyse how bearish US stock market sentiment in fact suggests heathy stock market returns. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

High Inflation drives down real wages. The result of all this stimulus is that US unemployment in December fell to 3.9%. This is full employment on any measure. At this level of a low unemployment, the US economy is running out of people to give extra jobs to. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

Brainard is brilliant, but Powell a better leader. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

We look at the US credit market to find two indicators of stock market health. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU

We look at the RBA statement on monetary policy for November, where growth is strong but inflation is not. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU #Economy #RBA #Inflation

Michael Knox discusses how a slowing Chinese GDP is a structural problem, because of slowing labour force growth. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU #ChineseGDP #China #Chineselabour #Chineseeconomy

We think GDP Fell 0.8% in Q3 2021 but will be up by 5% in the year to Q3 2022. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU #Economy #AusGDP #Finance

There is more to monetary policy than just increasing the cash rate. Michael Knox discusses how there are many more variable elements to consider when understanding monetary policy. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU #Quantitativeeasing #Economy #Cashrate

US corporate tax payments and US political uncertainty are generating a modest equity market correction that could continue in November. Michael Knox discusses his views with the Morgans network. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU #ASX #Economy #USCorporateTax #Form1120

Our Model of the US oil price is based on EIA oil stocks, and the pause announcement. The chance of the pause announcement having no impact on the oil price is 2 chances in 10,000. Michael Knox Morgans Chief Economist discusses with the network. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU #Oil #Commodities #Economy #Biden

The Australian economy will accelerate out of this shutdown with very strong growth in 2022. Michael Knox discusses with the Morgans network. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU #Economy #GDP #Employment

We think Chinese currency regulation is a firewall for the world against the Chinese domestic crisis. We also think iron ore prices should recover after February next year. Michael Knox discusses his views with the Morgans network. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU #Currencies #China #Building

The US is considering big hikes in corporate tax rates in the coming weeks. Will the market take fright? Michael Knox Morgans Chief Economist.

High prices for Australian metals and farm exports will generate higher living standards, and lower unemployment over the next three years. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU #Economy #Trade #Resources

Morgans Chief Economist Michael Knox discusses how lower iron ore stocks relative to Chinese consumption, should support iron ore prices around the current value. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU #Commodities #ironore #Stocks

Strong commodities provide the risk that the Aussie dollar will rise. Michael Knox discusses his views with the Morgans network. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU #Commodities #AUD #USdeficit

US advance retails sales are drifting down to long-term trend, as US emergency income supports end. Michael Knox, Morgans Chief Economist explains. Check out more from Morgans: Visit the Morgans website: www.morgans.com.au Check out our blog: www.morgans.com.au/Blog On Facebook: www.facebook.com/MorgansAU On Instagram: www.instagram.com/Morgans.Australia On Twitter: twitter.com/MorgansAU #Retail #Sales #USretail