PODCAST · science
More or Less
by BBC Radio 4
Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
Episodes
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Is every card shuffle unique?
Can it really be true that every shuffle of a deck of cards is unique? Mathematician and stand-up comedian Matt Parker claims that every time you do a shuffle, the cards have never been in that order before. But how can he be so confident? Matt came into the studio armed with a deck of cards and...
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Bonus podcast: Norman Numbers
What's this, an extra podcast? Has Christmas come early? No, the Bayeux Tapestry has instead returned to England for the first time in almost 1000 years. To mark the occasion, we've compiled six snack-sized stats all about the Norman invasion of England to help you have something to talk about in...
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Do Germans really take 19.5 days of sick leave per year?
How do different countries compare, in terms of the amount of time that workers take as sick leave? Loyal listener Dave got in touch to ask us to look at a surprising statistic he saw in the news – that the average German takes 19.5 days of sick leave per year. “This is extremely hard to…
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How much of the world isn’t owned by anyone?
Sometimes world events of massive practical significance lead our minds towards some lovely impractical thoughts. So it was for loyal listener, Nigel. Pondering the conflict in Iran, and the maritime ownership of the Straits of Hormuz that has become its focus, his mind wandered to an altogether...
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14 million deaths or zero deaths? The impact of the USAID cuts
As part of their mandate to stop 'waste, fraud and abuse' in federal government spending, DOGE, the department of Government Efficiency, made large cuts to the amount of money the US spent on foreign aid. The task force, headed by Elon Musk, effectively dismantled the US's largest foreign aid...
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How much of all the money in the world does Elon Musk have?
Earlier this year, South African-born tech tycoon Elon Musk briefly became the world’s first dollar trillionaire. This prompted loyal listener Stephen to email the More or Less team, to ask us to investigate something his daughter had been pondering: For all Musk’s vast wealth, what does it…
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Would you take £50,000 or a 50/50 chance of £1m?
If you had a choice between instantly receiving £50,000 or a 50% chance to win £1m, which would you pick? When YouGov asked exactly that question to people in the UK, 73% said they would take the £50,000, while 21% opted for the 50/50 chance of winning £1m. As you may or may not have imagined…
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The mistake in Trump’s tariff formula
What is the error in the calculation Donald Trump used to work out his new tariffs? What happened when the government ordered a recount of bobbies on the beat? When is a tax freeze not a tax freeze? And do redheads really have a 25% higher tolerance to pain? Tim Harford investigates some of the...
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Is crime in London ‘through the roof’?
The crime rate in London has been cropping up regularly on social media and in political discussions - US president Donald Trump has claimed that crime in the city is ‘through the roof’. But what does the data tell us? Professor Matt Ashby, from University College London’s Centre for Global City...
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How much luck do you need to win the World Cup?
As the 2026 World Cup approaches its end, what is the biggest factor in who wins? Is it extraordinary moments of attacking magic? Gritty defensive organisation? Or is it all just a question of luck and random chance? We look at how mathematicians and analysists make sense of chaos, xG and...
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Does playing tennis make you live 9.7 years longer?
Recently a post did the rounds on Twitter, claiming that people who play tennis live on average 9.7 years longer than people who play other sports. The figure comes from a recent analysis of people's exercise habits in Denmark. But not everyone on Twitter was convinced. Tennis is a sport that in...
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Does the average teacher really earn £54,000?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: (00:32) A government minister has informed the nation that average teacher pay in England is around £54,000. Radio 4 listeners are howling at the radio in disbelief. Surely someone from the IFS would be able to explain all this?...
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Does a full moon make crime rates go up?
The Moon is one of the most captivating features of our night's sky, and apparently, one of the most suspicious.... For thousands of years, people have blamed the full moon for strange behavior. From ancient myths and the origins of the word lunacy to modern police folklore, the idea that a…
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Examining the numbers behind Andy Burnham’s ‘Manchester Miracle’
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: (00:23) Andy Burnham may not be Prime Minister yet, but he’s setting out his economic agenda, and its based on his old stomping ground, Greater Manchester. We ask whether the official figures that seem to show an economic…
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Benefits vs minimum wage: Which pays more?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: (00:42) Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Sir Jeremy Hunt argues that you can earn far more on out of work benefits than you can on the minimum wage. We argue his figures are deceptive - and we’ve done the homework to prove it....
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Benefits v minimum wage: Which pays more?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: (00:42) Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Sir Jeremy Hunt argues that you can earn far more on out of work benefits than you can on the minimum wage. We argue his figures are deceptive - and we’ve done the homework to prove it....
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Is the US worse than North Korea for malnutrition deaths?
This surprising claim was spotted circulating on social media: 'The United States has surpassed China and North Korea in deaths from malnutrition’. The claim used analysis from the Global Burden of Disease database for their sums. The data does indeed show that the US records more deaths from...
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Does Europe suffer more heat deaths than the US?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: (00:31) Claims have circulated on the internet that Europe sees a particularly high number of deaths from heat waves, especially when compared to the US. Can we really compare the statistics, and is air conditioning a silver...
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Andrew Ross Sorkin: What can the Great Crash of 1929 tell us about today?
The financial journalist Andrew Ross Sorkin on the numbers behind the 1929 crash.The Great Crash of 1929 has faded into history, but financial journalist and author Andrew Ross Sorkin argues it holds vital lessons for today. Andrew came into the studio in London to discuss what we can understand...
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Education, Education, Education (and Immigration)
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: (00:32) The internet is abuzz with the claim that twenty-seven young migrants are hired for every British young person. We explore the truth behind this misleading claim. (08:40) Last year two nerds made a bet on our programme....
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Factchecking claims that 400 churches were burned to the ground in France
In certain corners of the internet some suspicious numbers are cropping up again and again. People claiming that 400 churches have been burnt to the ground or attacked in an assortment of countries, including France, the US and Canada. So, what is going on? Is there a spate of anti-Christian…
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Debunking the claim that migrants will get half of new homes
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: (00:42) The Daily Express claims that ‘Migrants will get half of all new homes’, based on a calculation from the Conservatives. We explain why that’s not what the numbers say, and ask what the Conservatives own record on…
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The known unknowns of Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
On the 17th of May the World Health Organisation declared a new outbreak of Ebolavirus in the Democratic Republic of the Congo as an International Emergency. Ebola virus is an extremely nasty viral disease with a high death toll. But despite its severity, very little is known about the number of...
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Does a fall in the UK's healthy life expectancy mean what you think it means?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: Headlines have claimed that “healthy life expectancy” in the UK has fallen by two years. What does this actually mean? (00:32) A new government report estimates that HS2 will cost almost double its original estimate. We ask…
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Is the ‘loneliness epidemic’ real?
What does it mean if you say that something is an epidemic? In the case of a virus, it usually means that it is spreading rapidly and that more and more people are getting infected. When a disease is not on the rise but is there in a population at a reasonably steady level, we tend to say that…
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Are refugees more likely to commit crime?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. On the programme: Last week, Annunziata Rees-Mogg took to X to post a claim about the proportion of sex offences in Dorset that are committed by asylum seekers, writing that “asylum seekers make up 0.8% of Dorset’s population and 44% of...
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Erdos Problem 1196: Can AI now solve maths that no human can?
It is said that AI could soon be coming for the jobs of artists, lawyers, and software engineers. But it might now also be threatening a role at the height of academia – are pure mathematicians safe? Last month, a Stanford mathematician woke up to an email, claiming to have the solution to a...
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Why it’s wrong to say vaping is as bad for you as smoking
According to the World Health organisation, smoking kills some 7 million people every year. It is one of the world’s leading causes of preventable death. Because smoking causes lung cancer and other awful health conditions, many smokers switch to vaping - using nicotine-based e-cigarettes. But…
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Does it take 15,000 litres of water to produce a kilogram of beef?
If you spend much time on social media, and we don’t necessarily recommend it, then you’ve probably come across a strange fascination with water consumption. Mainly, this is people telling you that using AI is terrible for the planet because of how much water it uses. We’ve already made a couple…
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Have RFK and MAHA really changed American views on vaccines?
Vaccine policy in the US is something of an ideological battleground. Health Secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr is a vaccine sceptic, and since taking office he has attempted to remake US vaccine policy. In March a judge blocked his proposal to cut the number of jabs that are recommended for kids. At...
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Is Trump right that wind turbines are killing millions of birds?
US president Donald Trump is no fan of wind turbines, or windmills as he calls them. Not only does he think they ruin the view from a golf course he owns in Scotland, but they are also deadly to birds. “If you love birds, you’d never want to walk under a windmill,” he said in 2019. “It’s a very...
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Dr Spock’s dangerous advice on baby sleep
Sometimes it is obvious to everyone when an idea is harmful, or a piece of advice is damaging. But not always. Occasionally bad ideas and terrible advice end up being accepted in society and supported by people in authority. In such circumstances, one of the most powerful tools for changing...
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How likely is ‘likely’?
When you’re listening to the news, you will often hear words that are meant to communicate the probability of something happening. A terrorist attack is “a realistic possibility”, the spread of a certain strain of virus is “highly likely", the relegation of your favourite football team is...
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How much water does AI consume?
As Artificial Intelligence continues to expand rapidly, some people have raised concerns about its potential environmental impact - in particular its use of water, which is used to cool both data centres and the power generators that supply them with electricity. One recent book on AI contained…
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Paul Ehrlich: The man who bet England wouldn’t exist by the year 2000
Paul Ehrlich’s bestselling book The Population Bomb opens with an apocalyptic paragraph. “The battle to feed all of humanity is over,” it states. “In the 1970s and 1980s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing...
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Transgender women in sport: Does ‘comparable’ mean ‘equal’?
In most sports, men compete against men and women compete against women. That is generally considered fair, because men are faster, more powerful and have greater endurance. But there is an ongoing controversy about transgender women - people who were born male and now identify as women. Is it…
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US-Israel war with Iran: Do the gulf states have enough interceptor missiles?
On Saturday 28th February, the US and Israel launched a military attack on Iran, targeting the country's missile infrastructure, military sites and leadership. In response, Iran launched a wave of strikes across the region, including on Israel and the Gulf states. Iran has a stockpile of…
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Has a company really discovered a million new species?
Have a million new species just been discovered? That’s the claim made by Dr Oliver Vince, co-founder of a company called Basecamp Research, who are collecting genetic data to train AI systems. The hope is that they’ll be able to use this to discover new medicines. But is this number a good one?...
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Did AI researchers let AI hallucinations into scientific papers?
AI can make mistakes – and AI chatbots like ChatGPT warn you about that whenever you ask them anything. These mistakes sometimes involve making up entirely fictitious, factually false statements known as “hallucinations”. Whether these hallucinations matter depends on what you’re using AI for…
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Is an ancient charioteer the best paid sportsperson of all time?
Modern sport can seem awash with money, but it’s been claimed that the richest sportsperson of all is an ancient Roman Charioteer from the second century AD called Gaius Appuleius Diocles, with career winnings that stood at 35 million sesterces. One calculation has translated that into an...
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Is this Premier League striker a secret maths genius?
Chelsea striker Liam Delap has recently stunned fans on Instagram by apparently doing incredibly complicated calculations in his head, finding what’s known as the cube root of some very large numbers. But is he really a human calculator? Or is there something else going on? Tim Harford speaks to...
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Could Europe use its financial muscle to strong-arm the US?
Could European Nato members use their large holdings of US shares and bonds to put pressure on America? It’s a question that some in Europe found themselves asking as the geopolitical crisis over Greenland escalated and leaders desperately tried to think of ways to dissuade Donald Trump. It is…
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Can you get £71,000 on benefits?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: Is it true that someone needs to earn £71,000 before they receive more money than a family on benefits? Did Canadian prime minister Mark Carney get the GDP of Canada and the Nordic countries wrong? Are 1990s pop icons Right Said...
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Is Greenland as big as Africa?
The vast island of Greenland has found itself at the centre of a geopolitical crisis. But a little bit of geography can help us see the situation in a new light. YouTuber and map expert Jay Foreman explains how Mercator maps - the maps that the vast majority of us use to understand the world -...
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How close is Greenland to the United States?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: How far away is Greenland from the United States? We check a number From Our Own Correspondent. Does converting our entire energy system to be carbon neutral come with a £7.6 trillion price tag? Is the inevitable rise of house...
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No, a study has not shown that the covid jab causes cancer
In Autumn 2025 a paper in South Korea was published that excited many a vaccine sceptic online. The paper claimed that receiving a vaccination against Covid19 was linked to a 27% increase in cancer risk. However, when you dig into the data there is no evidence that the vaccine caused the cancer.…
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Have more than 100 private schools been forced to close because of VAT?
Tim Harford investigates some of the numbers in the news. This week: A headline in the Mail says more than 100 private schools have closed since Labour came to power and ended the VAT exemption for private schools. Is that number right? Is it true that when Covid hit the UK, a one-week delay in...
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Does Venezuela really have the biggest oil reserves in the world?
When people think of oil rich nations their mind generally goes to Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the US. But according to international statistics, the country with the largest oil reserves is Venezuela, with 300 billion barrels worth. At their peak they produced over 3.5 million barrels of the stuff…
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Immigration, Benefits and Inequality
What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes. In the final episode, we’re looking at the numbers behind some of the UK’s most potent political debates: Has 98%…
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Older People, Education, Prisons and the Weather
What kind of state does the UK find itself in as we start 2026? That’s the question Tim Harford and the More or Less team is trying to answer in a series of five special programmes. In the fourth episode, we’re searching for answers to these questions: Are one in four pensioners millionaires? Is...
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ABOUT THIS SHOW
Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
HOSTED BY
BBC Radio 4
CATEGORIES
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many episodes does More or Less have?
More or Less currently has 1000 episodes available on PodParley. New episodes are automatically indexed when they're published to the podcast feed.
What is More or Less about?
Tim Harford explains - and sometimes debunks - the numbers and statistics used in political debate, the news and everyday life
How often does More or Less release new episodes?
More or Less releases new episodes frequently with a large back catalog of 1000 episodes. Check the episode list for recent publication dates.
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Who hosts More or Less?
More or Less is created and hosted by BBC Radio 4.
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