Ned Davis Research: See the Signals Podcast

Recorded August 19, 2026 - in this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the growth and inflation forecasts for the world's largest economies. Over the coming years, growth and inflation in these economies will be shaped by a number of factors including demographic and labor force trends as well as AI investment and its impact on productivity. The U.S. faces a slow-growth, low inflation scenario. For the eurozone and Japan, we expect above-trend growth with low inflation. For emerging markets, including China, we expect higher growth and low inflation.-------S1:E34For more insights, visit our blog: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for complimentary access to our work: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us⁠

Recorded July 29, 2026 - in this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the global economic outlook. Alejandra notes that the war has presented challenges to various economies, especially those in Europe. In response to the war, central bank policy has mostly lost its dovish tilt, with some central banks now turning to tightening policy and others remaining on hold indefinitely. Lastly, China’s economy remains resilient at the headline level but increasingly imbalanced beneath the surface.-------S1:E33For more insights, visit our blog: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for complimentary access to our work: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us⁠

Recorded June 9, 2026 - in this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses China's economy. Alejandra notes that China’s economy is best described as resilient at the headline level but increasingly imbalanced beneath the surface. There is persistent weakness in domestic demand, particularly in retail sales and the property market. However, China has so far shown resilience to the oil shock stemming from the war in Iran. The economy’s narrow leadership makes China more vulnerable to downside risks, particularly if external demand weakens due to the war in Iran. If growth comes under pressure, policymakers are likely to respond.-------S1:E32For more insights, visit our blog: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for complimentary access to our work: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us⁠

Recorded May 14, 2026 - in this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the impact of the war on global supply chains and inflation. Alejandra notes that NDR's Global Supply Chain composite, which uses a variety of metrics to gauge both global and regional supply chain conditions, shows that global supply chain pressures have been building. Regarding inflation, despite headwinds from tariffs and deglobalization, productivity gains associated with AI adoption should help cap long-term price pressures. Recession risks are rising in the eurozone due to its historical sensitivity to oil price shocks.-------S1:E31For more insights, visit our blog: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for complimentary access to our work: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us⁠

Recorded April 9, 2026 - in this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the impact of the U.S.-Iran conflict on global economies. Alejandra notes that a a prolonged conflict could raise oil prices enough to slow growth and increase inflation, creating stagflationary risk. Within the U.S., consumers, especially lower income households, are mostly likely to feel the impact. Economies dependent on outsiders for their energy needs, like Europe and Japan, are more sensitive to oil price shocks compared to the U.S. China is likely to feel the impact of the war through global trade. Deterioration in global activity associated with the surge in oil prices could dampen demand for Chinese exports. -------S1:E30For more insights, visit our blog: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for complimentary access to our work: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us⁠

Recorded February 24, 2026 - in this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the U.S. economy relative to the world. From a macro perspective, there has been a divergence in macro expectations between the U.S. and other economies since early last year. Recent data suggest that those concerns are starting to carry over to the hard data. This is important for investors as weaker relative economic data for the U.S. historically have been associated with U.S. equity underperformance relative to international markets.-------S1:E29For more insights, visit our blog: https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for complimentary access to our work: ⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us⁠

Recorded February 24, 2026 - in this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the U.S. economy relative to the world. From a macro perspective, there has been a divergence in macro expectations between the U.S. and other economies since early last year. Recent data suggest that those concerns are starting to carry over to the hard data. This is important for investors as weaker relative economic data for the U.S. historically have been associated with U.S. equity underperformance relative to international markets.-------S1:E29For more insights, visit our blog: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for complimentary access to our work: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us⁠

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the outlook for the global economy in 2026. The global economy is likely to slow from this year's pace, but avoid recession nevertheless. Global inflation should ease, but the paths will be more economy specific. -------S1:E28For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for complimentary access to our work:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us⁠

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the outlook for the global economy in 2026. The global economy is likely to slow from this year's pace, but avoid recession nevertheless. Global inflation should ease, but the paths will be more economy specific. -------S1:E27For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for complimentary access to our work:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us⁠

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses how she monitored global economic activity while data were sparce. Although there was a fair share of public and private data available, NDR used generative AI to create a historical, numerical score on both economic activity and inflation from the Beige Book report.-------S1:E26For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign up for complimentary access to our work:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the states of the global economy. Most of the world’s major economies have shown signs of slowing, as tariff riskremains the biggest and most common obstacle to growth. Fortunately, recessiondoesn’t appear on the horizon, supporting the global expansion and equities.-------S1:E25For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠⁠⁠⁠Orto sign up for complimentary access to our work:⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses how macroeconomic conditions impact equity markets. The U.S. typically performs best when economic growth is above potential with low inflation, while having its worst performance during stagflation (low growth, high inflation) environments. Alejandra also discusses this analysis for Europe and Japan.-------S1:E24

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the trajectories for the U.S. and Chinese economies. In the first half of the year, China exceeded its government's growth goal of 5%, while economic sentiment in the U.S. lagged relative to other parts of the world. For the second half of the year, conditions in China are likely to soften, while the U.S. could see some upside surprises.--------------------S1:23

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the second half outlook for the global economy. Policy uncertainty has been a key influence so far in 2025. Most of the major economies we monitor will likely see slower economic growth in the second half of the year due to the impact of tariffs and policy uncertainty. Fortunately, recession doesn’t appear on the horizon anywhere, except for Japan, where recessions are common given low potential growth.--------E1:22

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the state of the economy post Liberation Day. Due to the persistent uncertainty, NDR reduced its real GDP growth forecast, indicating a slowing economy, but not falling into recession at this time. So far, global trade has remained resilient as economies adapt. Inflation in the U.S. is likely to be higher a year from now, but unlikely to approach post-pandemic reopening highs.---------S1:21

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the trajectory of the economy. Prior to the reciprocal tariff announcement, hard economic data looked favorable. However, more responsive soft economic data, such as surveys, painted a weaker outlook. If fully implemented, tariffs could have a dual-negative impact on the economy by increasing the price of goods and services, while creating downside risks to economic growth. This combination would create a significant monetary policy challenge for the Federal Reserve.-------S1:20

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the global economy including growth, inflation, and tariffs. Although global economic activity has slowed, leading indicators continue to point to positive growth. Higher tariffs are likely to increase U.S. inflation, which could slow the Fed’s easing. The U.S. dollar and the Swiss franc are more likely to see gains when global policy uncertainty increases.________________________S1:E19For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Or to sign up for complimentary access to our work:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.ndr.com/hs/contact-us⁠

In this episode, NDR's Senior U.S. Economist Veneta Dimitrova discusses the next decade through our Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions. We believe there are five major themes that will impact the global economy and the investment world over the next decade: AI, energy revolution, aging demographics, receding globalization, and global fiscal challenges. On net, we expect somewhat slower global real GDP growth and lower inflation through 2034 than over the previous decade. ________________________S1:E18For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Or to sign up for complimentary access to our work:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.ndr.com/hs/contact-us⁠

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the outlook for the global economy in 2025. 2024 has been a good year for the global economy, with real GDP expected to rise more than 3%.  We expect global growth to remain constructive in 2025, in line with its pace in 2024. With three-quarters of the world’s central banks now in easing cycles, easier monetary policy should help boostthe expansion next year. However, 2025 is riddled with higher uncertainty, the most obvious being the risk of broad-based tariffs from the U.S.________________________S1:E17For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Or to sign up for complimentary access to our work:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.ndr.com/hs/contact-us

In the latest Ned Davis Research podcast, See the Signals, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the U.S. economy. Prior to the election, the U.S. economy was outperforming its G7 counterparts. However, there are risks to outlook if proposed policies swell the government’s budget deficit and debt. A resulting fast runup in yields could cause U.S. equities to stumble. Looking internationally, proposed tariffs on exports to the U.S. could have a significant impact on Mexico, Canada, and Vietnam. ________________________S1:E16For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Or to sign up for complimentary access to our work:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us⁠

In the latest Ned Davis Research podcast, See the Signals, Brian Sanborn, NDR's Global Head of Investment Solutions, sat down with Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal to discuss the state of China's economy and the impact of recent stimulus measures. China's growth has slowed considerably in 2023 due to structural issues and challenges in key sectors like retail and real estate. However, despite these headwinds, government intervention through broad-based stimulus aims to support the 5% GDP growth target for the year. While these measures may provide short-term relief, Alejandra highlights that China's long-term growth trajectory remains weighed down by deteriorating demographics, deglobalization, and rising debt. ________________________ S1:E15 For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Or to sign up for complimentary access to our work: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us⁠

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses Japan. Following the Bank of Japan's monetary policy shift to tightening, the financial markets reacted negatively. Will that prevent the BoJ from further tightening? Probably not, due to numerous factors including inflation, the Taylor rule, and yen undervaluation. In fact, Japan's target rate may rise to 1% by the end of 2025. ________________________ S1:E14 For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠⁠⁠⁠ Or to sign up for complimentary access to our work: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us

In this episode, NDR's Senior U.S. Economist Veneta Dimitrova discusses the U.S. economic outlook. Although peak growth rates in this cycle are in the rearview mirror, the risk of recession in the near-term remains low. With slower disinflation expected in the coming months, one or two rates cuts by the Federal Reserve are likely on the horizon. ________________________ S1:E13 For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠⁠⁠ Or to sign up for complimentary access to our work: ⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us

NDR | In a world full of first rate cuts... In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses global monetary policy. Although the Fed has yet to cut rates, other central banks such as the ECB and Bank of Canada have started easing. Alejandra reviews the historical impact of first-rate cuts on equities, interest rates, and currencies for both Europe and Canada. ________________________ S1:E12 For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠⁠⁠ Or to sign up for complimentary access to our work: ⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the current state of the global economy. The global economy showed continued signs of accelerating momentum. However, successive gains in the PMI usually don’t last much longer than six months, suggesting that the composite could take a short breather soon. One standout continues to be India. India’s economy has been one of the most reliable sources of growth among the world’s largest economies for a couple of years now. ________________________ S1:E11 For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠⁠⁠ Or to sign up for complimentary access to our work: ⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses global monetary policy. Japan has effectively ended Negative Interest Rate Policy, while central banks in Latin America and Switzerland have been easing. Historically, the best period for equities has been when more than half of the world’s central banks have been in easing cycles. However, the bullish case for equities may depend on whether the Fed pivots to easing. ________________________ S1:E10 For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠⁠⁠ Or to sign up for complimentary access to our work: ⁠⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us

In this episode, in honor of International Women’s Day and Women’s History Month, Amy Lubas, NDR's VP of Investment Solutions interviews Alejandra Grindal, NDR's Chief Economist who discusses trends by women in the labor force. She notes that female participation in the prime age labor force has soared all over the world, outpacing that of males. In the U.S., there has been a notable surge in participation among Millennial women, who spend more and differently than their male counterparts. The rise in Millennial female participation should have positive implications for the economy and equities in the long-term. ________________________ S1:E9 For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠⁠ Or to sign up for complimentary access to our work: ⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us

In this episode, NDR's Chief U.S. Strategist Ed Clissold discusses the impact of the U.S. Presidential Election cycle on the markets. Ed reviews the four-year cycle's strongest and weakest periods, how the market may behave this year depending on the election's outcome, and which industries and sectors to watch. _________________________________________ S1:E8 For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠⁠ Or to sign up for complimentary access to our work: ⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses whether the global economy is on the verge of recession. The global economic lull we saw in the second half of 2023 appears to be abating as we start 2024. Alejandra notes that the weight of the evidence points to a low risk of global recession, as only one indicator in NDR’s Global Recession Watch report is giving a negative signal. S1:E6 For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠⁠ Or to sign up for complimentary access to our work: ⁠⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the potential for a soft landing versus no landing. Although recent data have reflected an overheating economy, the soft-landing scenario, of below-trend economic growth and continued disinflation, is more likely as the delayed impact of tight monetary policy, ebbing excess pandemic savings, rising consumer delinquencies, and political risk at home and abroad weigh on output this year. A soft-landing scenario of slow growth and low inflation is consistent with above average equity returns. _____________________________ S1:E6 For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠ Or to sign up for complimentary access to our work: ⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal provides her 2024 outlook for the global economy. Many of the downside factors that affected the second half of 2023 to persist. As a result, we estimate 2.7% real GDP growth in the global economy in 2024 and assign a 35% probability of a severe global recession. Overall, the inflation path is moving in the right direction, but inflation rates are likely to remain slightly above central bank targets by the end of the year. The U.S. is projected to grow between 1-1.5%, China to expand at 4.5%, and Europe likely to slip into a mild recession. ____________________________________ S1:E5 For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠ Or to sign up for complimentary access to our work: ⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal contrasts the economic divergence between China and India. Near-term, China’s economy is slowing after a short-lived pandemic reopening rebound early in the year, while India is seeing broad-based gains in economic activity. Longer-term, reforms introduced in India prior to the pandemic, coupled with deglobalization trends away from China, should benefit India’s long-term growth potential. However, India still has quite a bit to do before it can unleash its full economic potential. _______________________ S1:E4 For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠ Or to sign up for complimentary access to our work: ⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us

In this episode of See the Signals, NDR’s Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the tailwinds and headwinds within the U.S. economy. She also analyzes the impact on the credit markets. Overall, the weight of evidence continues to suggest that a soft landing is the more likely scenario for the U.S. economy. ___________________________ S1:E3 For more insights, visit our blog at https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals Or to sign up for complimentary access to our work: https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us

In this episode, NDR's Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal discusses the unexpected demographic upside from the pandemic. Among major economies, flexible work weeks and days worked from home have become a norm, which has led to a soaring labor force participation rate among females. With greater female labor force participation being associated with more elevated birth rates among developed economies, this latest trend has positive implications for potential real GDP growth and the long-term outlook for the stock market. ________________________________________ S1:E2 For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠ Or to sign up for complimentary access to our work: ⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us⁠

In her latest global economic research note, NDR’s Chief Economist Alejandra Grindal analyzed strong divergences within the global economy. In particular, she found growing risks within China and Europe, but a more optimistic outlook for the U.S., Japan, and India. __________________________________ S1:E1 For more insights, visit our blog at ⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-signals⁠ Or to sign up for complimentary access to our work: ⁠https://info.ndr.com/ndr-contact-us⁠