Notayesmanspodcasts

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- What’s the chances of the UK running into Argentina/Turkey levels of inflation and interest rates? How genuine do you believe the economic data coming out of China to be? 1) Do you agree with me that a good move by Burnham would be to go back in history books and recreate a new Manchester Stock Exchange to boost local / Northern investments & start-ups and replicate this in the Midlands Both would be under FCA. Is the only solution in the short term to put everyone on an agile price tracker to enforce demand reduction at low supply times!?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- Is £65 per MWh high or low? Is there any economic benefit from having a number 10 in the north? 5 year Gilt is 4.33% and today a 2031 linker was 0.933%. Does that suggest bond markets are calculating RPI will run at 3.4% average over the next 5 years? I am concerned about the possibility of FTSE 100 companies such as HSBC seeking a listing away from the FTSE. How might the composition of the FTSE change in terms of industry segment weighting change, if the rumours in the financial press are true? How might this affect the pricing of the FTSE and performance of funds that track FTSE ?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on:- This chart seems to be at odds with everything else I see and hear atm. Can you explain the growth in UK bank lending? Question for today. Do you think the pound becomes a better indicator of fiscal stress if it hits the big 1.30 $/£? On your power system piece, building an new electricity generation, distribution and backup system was always going to be more expensive than using the one we already had, why did Gov not say that from the start?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on early question for tomorrows podcast if you don’t mind - “with the global pressures potentially easing, are we likely to see any downward pressure on UK mortgage rates?” Will the UK's Labour government bankrupt the country? Will they force the Bank of England to resume QE in order to contain Gilt yields? Can I assume that oil and gas are flowing unimpeded through the gulf now from the market reaction to the MOU and refilling Europe gas storage is completed

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on . Question for today. Is it possible that the bond markets have priced Burnham being PM in already? No movement after the defence resignations which make Starmer's tenure more likely to end (probably have to wait until next Friday to know for sure) We should be at the height of the UK/ European gas storage filling season but that's not happening. Is that because markets expect prices to have fallen by winter making filling now a loss.

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on . BESSENT: INFLATION IS GOING TO BE A SHORT TERM BLIP Question: How high do you think the Bank of England will allow inflation go before the raise bank rate? Considering many punters are already suggesting inflation will hit 4 or 5 soon. Q: will the SpaceX IPO see profits taken in AI stocks & see USD rise and Bond yields rise as the mega IPO sees rotation and international players look to grab a slice of the $75 billion shares on offer. Q: does the IPO show market is at a top Is the world set up for an economic crash correction this year with inflation, unemployment, AI overpricing and government debt? What probability would you put on it? Question for Friday. How good a measure is the US Fed M2 (broad money) at indicating inflation down the line? 4.6% Vs UK M4 at 4.5%

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on . Morris May With broad money growing again in the EU, (+0.2%) and expected ECN rate rise this month, what growth in April's/ annual M4 figure next week will prompt the BoE MPC to react in a similar manner? Morris May With the £ weakening by over 1% v $ in May (particularly for effect on cost of fossil fuel imports) how much upwards pressure does this exert on UK inflation. Keith Cowan What economic interventions would you make to address the youth unemployment crisis in the UK. Truffle Hunter With brent dropping back to $90 this morning how does this drift lower start to impact inflation? Don't panic jonesy Wholesale elec price is still dropping dramatically. When do we get to see this reflected in our bills?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on . Martin Whitely Whats your view of whether tax increases are actually pulling in the revenue expected? Also on debt interest costs? Morris May Does the OBR exist to make other economists look good? hes not the messiah what solace are bond PMs seeing above that 😱 borrowing figure? Global trends? Or are they buying the Operation Save Keir spin?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on . Richard st ruth Q:😃 what do you think the Bond vigilantes are thinking about our Gilts movement over the next couple of years? Morris May To what extent do gilts sell offs relate to the £ exchange rate? We saw it to the extreme last under Truss. When does it become a problem? Alastair Smith From a quick search I couldn't find any comments from you on Modern Monetary Theory. It's been brought back into the Scottish independence debate following the recent election. In light of that, and increasing interest rates in Japan & elsewhere, wondered what you think of MMT? Lairy Sanders It looks like CDS moving too for gilts?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on . Harrison Hi Shaun - sorry if I’ve missed the cutoff for questions already, - but what is QT please? Why would anyone do it given the losses being imposed on the public purse? Why is BoE so eager to push ahead with it? Morris May there is a fair amount of truth in this summary. So an early question for tomorrow's pod...is it possible we might see a bond strike? Dr Twatter reason for lower yields? Matt Brookes One for the podcast - will we be getting an energy/ inflationary spike as the effects of Iran filter through?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on . GB Investor and Politics Shaun, i ask you this a lot, do you think inflation in the UK is because there is too much demand? Morris May With the 5 yr at 4.62, 2yr at 4.57 and 52wk 4.48, which bond yield gives a better indication as to mortgage rates rises along with BoE rate rises, with markets now pricing in 3 x 25bps hikes this year. Richard St Ruth I am a bit worried about Britain’s economy over the next few years. I remember back in 1976, when Britain went to the IMF, gilt rates were very high. Five-year gilts were about 12% to 14%, while 10-year gilts were fractionally higher at 13% to 16%. If our economy goes pear-shaped, heaven forbid, we could go to 8% or more. Have you given any thought to gilts going higher? Julia Macfarlane Why are people not talking about this other than on twitter? I don’t fully understand how bonds work as I am economically dyslexic 😵‍💫 yet even I can tell something disastrous is unfolding. What’s going on!

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on please talk about the plan for U K banks to buy £150 billion of UK government bonds. It's paywalled and I can't find a way round it, and even if I could, I don't know if I'd understand it. So. my Q: what's the idea, would it work, who'd benefit, who'd lose out? Alastair Smith Hi Shaun. Any thoughts on Sarah Breedon's comments which are reported by the BBC today with the headline "Stock markets are too high and set to fall, says Bank of England deputy" ? Morris May As the yield spread between the US and UK hits 67bps, at what point do either Bailey or RR take responsibility or will they continue to ignore the elephant in the room

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on According to ChatGPT the refinancing mortgage wave in the next 2 years could involve roughly: • 3½ – 4 million owner-occupier households • several hundred thousand landlord mortgages Maybe £200-£300 per month. Question for Friday: How will this effect the UK economy in the next couple of years? Morris May Just how precarious is the UK Gilts market after the spike yesterday when the guardian story broke? Mr B What was interesting Shaun, that Bessent said in an interview at the INF meeting that he believes the @bankofengland is making profits on gilt trading and intervenes when required to control negative market moves ? Do you believe he knows something we do not see ? dAVIDTHECHEF The BoE aren't that clever and proactive surely? D-COO Bluesky Podcast Question: yesterday, Fortune mag stated that "The premium U.S. Treasuries once commanded over other advanced-economy debt is narrowing." How might the UK position itself to catch an outflow from t-bonds?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on the UK government bond market and the factors I believe mean that we are in a crisis that will not be easy to escape.

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on : Japan’s 40-year bond yield at ~4% cuts both ways — it signals a healthier, post-deflation economy and helps pensions/insurers, but raises government borrowing costs and risks financial instability if the shift is too fast. Q: what do you think will happen? With Bailey, the Fed and the ECB suggesting that they sit and wait on interest rates, is it possible that bond rates rise further than they have already while they dither? Could this lead to a bond/financial crisis?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on Full english Hi Shaun....one for the pod. 10yr gilt at 5.03% this morning. I assume you're about to sound the Klaxon. At what level does stuff start to break? Mark Bishop A question for your pod, Shaun: with the 10-year hovering around 5%, should the Bank of England be a buyer, not a seller? sally copper When will the Bank of England be forced to re-start QE or Yield Curve Control? 😋🤪 Actually, I am really wondering which central bank will be the first ... the Fed, the ECB or the Bank of England. Mr B Shaun, do you see the UK govt or a quasi private BAE issue of a private bond paying 6.5% fixed yield long term a special issue to fund the defence budget & nuclear power plants. As a way to fund both much needed areas to save UK ? Morris May With Gilts up 75bps in March, 2/3 base rate hikes priced in, along with the biggest downgrade in growth for the G7 by -0.5%, higher inflation increasing welfare costs and public sector pay demands and energy bill support, how likely are tax rises in autumn budget?erfect storm

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on Please explain why that matters, what it means and the factors behind the rise in UK bond yields. A question for Friday. If Trump goes America first later in the year and restricts US LNG exports to keep prices down there, what happens in the EU & UK? Shaun for the podcast this week.....what are the reasons and consequences of the BoE holding at 3.75% this morning, when gilt yields have been surging for a couple of weeks now, and I see the 2yr is at 4.4% this morning! Thank you Sir...... To what extent would a UK base rate rise dampen inflation in the coming months, given that the driver of it is a rise in energy prices caused by a supply-side shock? What other policies might be as or more effective? Somewhat tongue in cheek, when will the Bank of England restart QE or Yield Curve Control? With a swing from -50 bps base rate cut now being replaced by+40 bps expectation this year, how badly will this effect OBR forecasts and hence pressure on RR amid calls for increased defence spending and intervention in household energy bills? Q; Shaun can you explain to listeners that the last inflation rate is just indicating a slowing of the rise and previous inflation does not disappear. Q: 2 How people adjust their spending when oil spikes but long term effect will add to core inflation

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on the positive move from UK index-linked bonds. : Are we back to the BoE’s Bailey MPC’s singing around the desk next week Britney’s ‘Oops I’ve done it again ‘and say inflation & oil is ‘Transitory ‘. Pressure on anaemic growth and increased borrowing costs of national debt make for a difficult relationship between Bailey and Rachel Reeves? Also questions on UK hydro output and solar power output.

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on the January weakening in UK money supply growth. Q: will 10 year UK Gilt rate hit 5% this time? Given the ECB is 100% to raise rates if this war prolongs, do you think Bailey will abandon QT, raise rates or both? I know you have covered this to an extent in your excellent blog today Is the war against Iran a convenient vehicle for UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves to blame all her mismanagement of the economy?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on do you see this UK Gilt market rally continuing or will some form of instability send yields soaring again this year? @FirstSquawk had a headline earlier saying that the Bank of Japan is keeping its bond buying at the same level in March as it was in February. Can you update us on the Bank of Japan's QE or Yield Curve Control programme, thanks. Interesting point about inflation and GDP. Maybe a question for next week...how well do other countries fair when it comes to calculating their inflation and GDP? Does this allow a fair comparison between nations performance?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on DP is said to have grown only marginally (say 0.1-0.2%), is it possible that in fact it declined, because the ONS understated inflation by a margin greater than the claimed growth? what proportion of the increase in retail sales in the UK, as reported today, is down to gold purchases. Also previous month? What are your views on Robert Jenrick's appointment, Shaun, and in his speech this week? Reforming rather than abolishing the OBR, narrowing the BoE's remit but retaining its independence, reinstating the two-child cap, retaining the triple lock etc

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on I’m beginning to really worry (not sure I’d say fear yet) about stagflation in the UK. Be interested in your thoughts.? Brits spend approx three times as much on food and non alcoholic drinks at home than they do on eating out. So why does the ONS weight restaurants and hotels higher in the inflation basket? Why are UK 10 year bond prices so low, 4.46% today, within the last year they have been as high as 4.8/4.9. Debt up, spending up, taxes up, so why the improvement?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on how will things play out for Japan if Takaichi gets her expected landslide and implements in full her intended policies? And what will be the wider/global implications? Are gilt yields now reflecting Starmer keeping his job, just? why aren't gilt prices rising despite falling interest rates.? What is it going to take for yields in UK to fall?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on Are Non-Depository Financial Institutions (NBFIs) going to be the next derivatives? Over time, how accurate an indicator has broad money, M4, been of inflation/growth in 18 months time? but does a rise in the endogenous money supply cause an increase in the nominal size of the economy (real growth + inflation) or is it as a result of an increase in the nominal size of the economy?

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on What’s going on in the property market Lots of houses sticking not selling? Richard st ruth Friday feels a long way off, but I’d be interested to hear your thoughts on the Japanese bond market. Stewart Button A question for the podcast- how long does the market expect the gold rally to continue, and how long to you? And, is the bass solo in 'My Generation' the best ever!? What is that. Bond Jockey Shaun, was a strong retail sales not down to investors buying Gold sovereigns and Britannias in higher than normal quantities (and value obviously)... Morris May With American borrowing soaring, how much of that is a concern when their economy appears to also be growing fast (maybe 5% pa)? Shaun, was a strong retail sales not down to investors buying Gold sovereigns and Britannias in higher than normal quantities (and value obviously)... Mayor of West Yorks Shaun, how can an economy that’s “growing” be losing so many jobs? I think the OBR is using an underestimate of real inflation to estimate GDP (consumer inflation is over 5%) 300,000 people have lost their job in a year -

This is the latest in my series of podcasts explaining how economics works in the credit crunch and now virus pandemic era. This week I give my thoughts on what is your outlook for Gilts this year? Are gilt ETFs a good buy right now for income, capital gains and protections against a looming stocks correction? Plus the problems with UK official statistics and the Labour Force Survey.

My first weekly podcast covering my economics philosophy as well as developments in Japan and UK GDP numbers.