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ODEON CAPITAL CONVERSATIONS
by Odeon Conversations
Deep dive into all things money and markets with leading industry veterans. This program of well-informed conversations and debate features the famed bank analyst and media personality Dick Bove, chief financial strategist at Odeon Capital Group, and Mathew Van Alstyne, Odeon managing partner and co-founder. Odeon is a full-service independent broker/dealer and investment bank. This podcast is hosted by John Aidan Byrne, an award-winning business journalist. Disclosures: http://www.odeoncap.com/legal
Episodes
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DICK BOVE Says Government Doesn’t Want US Banks to Grow; Reasons America Skirted Recession; New Untested Era for Global Trade; More Millionaires & Billionaires; SEC Votes for Crypto. America’s Malaise
Bank earnings season is well underway with DICK BOVE, the dean of bank analysts, concluding the sector’s outlook is bleak. Four of Wall Street’s premier league banks — JP Morgan, Chase, Citigroup and Bank of America — reported on Friday. A multitude of write offs and some $2.9 billion in charges...
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Labor Data in Doubt: Did US Economy Shed 150K Jobs in December? Most Significant Decline in Money Supply Since Great Depression. ‘Dismal’ Bank Earnings Forecast. Lessons of Nazi Gold & War in Ukraine
Lies, damn lies and statistics? DICK BOVE, once again, challenges the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), this time attacking its announcement that the US economy generated 216,000 jobs in December as the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7 percent. Using government data on hirings, layoffs,...
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How Fed Rate Cuts in 2024 Could Boost Uncle Sam, Unleash New Challenges. End of Corporate ‘Greedflation’? Banks ‘Screwed’ on Mortgage Originations. Manufacturing Investment Surges. A World in Turmoil
All eyes are on the US Fed and Central bankers worldwide at the start of 2024. Investors are increasingly convinced this year will see a pivot to lower interest rates, and the end of money tightening. This same money tightening saw the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate reach the current…
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Veteran Bank Analyst, DICK BOVE, Upgrades Five Bank Stocks As Interest Rates Forecast to Decline. Banks Are Still In 'Deep Trouble,' And Losing Market Share, BOVE Says
In our final episode of 2023, DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, explains his rationale for his upgrade of five bank stocks, from Hold to Buy: Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC), Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC), U.S. Bancorp (NYSE:USB), PNC Financial Services (NYSE:PNC),...
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Why Is Stock Market Soaring? Who'll Pay For America's Record Deficit Spending As Foreigners Retreat? How To Defeat Putin. Next Stage Of New World Order. Negative Equity On Auto Loans At Pre-Covid High
Is America now in recession, or within striking distance? DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, thinks so. As the US stock market skyrockets in anticipation of a series of interest rate cuts in 2024, BOVE sees huge trouble in sections of the US economy. Forget about the...
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Surprising New Buyers for US Treasuries. Money Supply Much Bigger Than Fed Tally. Large Scale Write Offs As Bank Rules Reduce Activity, Hurt Stocks. Russia Doubles Income on Oil Exports
The Annual Senate hearing on US banking was different this year, turning most of the attention to a single topic—the proposed new banking regulations that would radically reshape the industry. In years past, the committee grilled the assembled CEOs of America’s top banks on a wide range of…
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US Home Equity Surges, $95,900 Three-Year Average Gain. Boosts Economy, Spending. Harvard Sees Room for More US Houses. DICK BOVE disagrees. S&P 500 Strong. Investment Banking Hot.
With the US economy still perked up with trillions of dollars created during the Covid-19 pandemic to stimulate the financial system, with inflation easing, and expectations of interest rate cuts in 2024, the markets are responding in kind. The S&P 500 is hot, rising 8.9% in November, investment...
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Banks Could Soon See A Wave of Loan Losses in Private Markets. Too Early to Say Fed Has Peaked on Interest Rates. How ‘Doom Loop’ Could Cripple US Budget. A New Millionaire Class. China in Argentina.
US banks are staring at rising loan losses among clients in the private equity markets. These customers, operating conglomerates and other businesses, are struggling on debt repayments as higher interest rates take a toll, according to DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP,...
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US Housing Glut Is Developing, Says DICK BOVE. Housing Peak, Falling Prices & Loan Losses Forecast. Wealth Effect Buoys Americans, Spurs Spending. Retailers See Deflation. Citi Set to Axe 10,000 Jobs
In an in-depth new report, DICK BOVE sees the makings of a US housing bust. The latest data from the National Association of Realtors shows the pace of home sales plunged to its lowest level in more than 13 years in October, with an uptick in the median home prices. High mortgage rates are cited...
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America's Soaring Net Worth & New Millionaires. Inflation Eases. Markets Eye Interest Rate Cuts. Boom or Bust? Japan Embraces Inflation. China Fights Deflation. Wealth Management Faces New Challenges
Inflation eased in October with consumer prices up 3.2% from a year ago, the Labor Department reported on Tuesday November 14. That's a smaller annual increase in the consumer price index (CPI) than the month before when inflation came in at 3.7%. Inflation was flat on a monthly basis. "The…
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US Economy Slows 'Meaningfully.' Surge of Workers In Multiple Part-Time Jobs. Wealth Management Assets Explode. Regional Banks 'Upbeat.' Auto Sector Declines. Argentina in Ruins. Money Disappears
US job growth cooled in October as the Labor Department's closely watched employment report showed the unemployment rate rising to 3.9%, the highest since January 2022, up from 3.8% in September. Employers added 150,000 jobs, half the September gains, and the smallest increase in jobs since June,...
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Why 'Blockbuster' US Summer Growth Was Mild. Fixing Deficits, Saving America. Capital One Delinquencies Test New Highs. Dick Bove's JP Morgan's Open Letter. Why Is Jamie Dimon Selling JP Morgan Stock?
With wars and uncertainty across the globe—and the US mired in political polarization and economic fear—the CONVERSATION casts a wide net from the US to China. China, the world's second largest economy, is showing fresh signs of weakening. The CONVERSATION asks pointed questions on the latest US...
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US Fed Deficit Disaster. Gov Spends Hugely More Than It Collects. Auto & Credit Car Loan Delinquencies Soar. Dick Bove Eyes Troubled China. Bond Legend Predicts Recession. History's Positive Lesson.
The U.S. government posted a $1.7 trillion budget deficit in fiscal 2023, a significant 23% jump from the prior year. Revenues declined and outlays for Social Security, Medicare and record-high interest costs on the federal debt raced ahead. "Nobody in Washington is interested in controlling...
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Bank Earnings Exceed Expectations. Pressure for More Bank Equity. Loan Losses Skyrocket. Blockbuster Consumer Spending. Most Dangerous Times Maybe in Decades, Says Jamie Dimon. Costly Green New Deal
It's bank earnings seasons with the four big US banks and one investment bank having so far reported. The picture is positive as measured by earnings. But the underlying picture shows challenges for the banks from pressure to increase their equity to proposed new rules condemned by the industry....
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Why Latest Blow-Out US Jobs Growth Data Is Deceptive. Huge Gains in Government Hiring 'Not Sustainable.' Where Is American Manufacturing? Bank Stocks 'Horrible Performance.' War & Tragedy in Israel
The CONVERSATION shares some frank and timely commentary on the shocking tragedy in Israel as the world watched the deadly horror unfold. DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP offers his thoughts. MAT VAN ALSTYNE, ODEON co-founder and managing partner, shares some personal...
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What Is Driving 10-Year Yield to New High? Why Fed’s Losses Matter. Taylor Swift Consumer Mania. US Home Prices Soar. Green New Deal Alarm. Guillaume Pitron's Rare Metal's War. Underwhelming Banks
DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, offers his case for what has driven the 10-year treasury yield to its highest level in 16 years. Borrowing costs are soaring. BOVE identifies the sharp reduction, over $1 trillion, in the US Money Supply for the rise in the 10-year...
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The Game Has Changed: Fed's Shrinking Balance Sheet, Overwhelmed Consumers, Troubled Banks Dim Economic Outlook. Recession Risks Rise. Is World DIsorder Spreading Fast? Case for Made in America
The US economy is at a pivotal moment as the Federal Reserve reduces its balance sheeting, shrinking it by 10.5 percent, of $940 billion in the past 18 months. Banks are losing deposits, money market funds are seeing outflows. This is a turning point, says DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at...
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Is US Economy in Better Shape for Consumers per White House, or Facing Tailwinds, Turmoil & Imminent Recession? Jamie Dimon’s Global Warnings. China’s Ghost Towns. Disinflation & Bank Capital Rules
How do we understand the latest media tour by Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, as she touts reasons to be sanguine on the state of the US economy, in particular the US consumer? Consumers are feeling better about their personal finances though negative, nonetheless, on the overall state of the…
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New Regulations Shrink Bank Sector, Layoffs Mount, Risks Rise in Financial System. Reduced Lending, Slower Growth Forecast. US Faces Higher Refinancing Costs as Deficit Soars. Trouble in Africa
On August 29, 2023, the three major bank regulatory agencies issued a whopping 1,087-page set of new rules and regulations for the banking industry. The rules emerged following the recent failures of three regional banks, a series of events which exposed financial vulnerabilities in the sector....
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Debt Driven Recession Inevitable in Next 18 Months, says DICK BOVE. Servicing Debt Costs Hit Record, Interest Rates Soar 50% to 100%. Economy Will Be 'Crushed.' Putin's Tough Grain Talk. African Era
Many economists had widely anticipated a US and global recession for the past 12 months, a recession that never materialized. With the US Fed aggressively hiking interest rates to tamp down sky-high inflation, the view was that it would result in a sharp rise in unemployment, as well as a steady...
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Globe’s Debt Trap. ‘Liberation’ of US Housing Agencies Seen as Solution to Housing Meltdown. Home Prices Soar, Sales Decline. More Bank Branches, ATMs Shutter. Trouble in China & Germany
The CONVERSATION conducts a post mortem on comments by Fed Reserve Chairman, JEROME POWELL, in his speech last week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. “There is this belief that he [Powell] doesn’t believe in what he says,” says DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. But he warns:...
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Housing Crash A 'Very Real' Possibility as Rates Hit 23-Year High. US Banks Squeezed to Extinction. Goldman's Embattled CEO David Solomon Deserves Credit for Leadership, says Dick Bove. China Tumbles
With markets about to parse the forthcoming speech this week of US Fed Chairman, JEROME POWELL at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, all eyes were suddenly on mortgages rates, which have hit a 23-year high on 30-year fixed loans. Home affordability in America is becoming more expensive, demand is far…
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Rising Interest Rates, Faulty Accounting, Buybacks Poison Bank Stocks, Says DICK BOVE. China's Dicey Banks, Troubled Economy. Ruble Plummets As Russia Raises Rates. Good News, Bad News On US Economy
Investing in US bank stocks the past five years has disappointed many investors. "The result was not a random event," says DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, outlining three reasons why he believes the industry performed so badly relative to the market overall. The...
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Fed's Stark Choice on Interest Rates As US Debt Baloons, Fitch Downgrades. Regulators Clamp Down, Banks Scale Back Lending. Moody's Cut Ratings of 10 Banks. Restoring Public Confidence in Democracy
Wall Street is paying close attention to the latest data on labor markets and inflation, as well as on wage growth and more, as the Fed weighs up its next move. For DICK BOVE, the Fed seems increasingly likely to extend its interest rate hike campaign to finally tamp down inflation closer to its...
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Why US Inflation Could Soar, Again. Wages, Rising Asset Price & Strong Labor Markets Could Trigger Higher Interest Rates. Bank Consolidations Forecast To Accelerate. Africa's Demographic Positives.
The white-hot stock market in the first half of this year, wage gains, a tight labor market, rising home prices— as well as falling inflation data—have contributed to a widespread view among many analysts that the US economy has avoided a major recession. A soft landing, if any, is now a popular...
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Investors See Soft Landing, Shrug Off Recession Fear, Dow Surges. Consumers Tap New Credit Line. FDIC Warns Banks On Uninsured Deposits. Bank of Hawaii's Trouble. Population Bust. Europe's Quiet Death
Stocks surged as Wall Street scaled back its recession fears, the S&P 500 trading at its highest level since April 2022, by the close of trading on Tuesday July 25. "Investors have changed their outlook on the economy," says DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. "They have...
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Bank Earnings Drive Rally as Recession Fears, Inflation Ease. What Pundits Are Missing. Risks of Loan Losses in Non-Bank Sector ‘Staggering.' Rise of Home Equity Loans. Bank Capital Rules
Stocks continued their recent upswing as investors absorbed a stream of quarterly earnings. The rally in part reflected a positive response to earnings reports from big banks like Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS). A certain “euphoria” also gripped the markets as fears of recession…
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New Wave of US Bank Failures Forecast, Consumer Lenders Face Trouble, Analyst Says. Auto Loans Sour. US Labor Numbers Confuse, Once Again. China Diplomacy, Trade in Crosshairs As Yellen Calms Nerves.
US consumers are borrowing like gangbusters and spending heavily in a post-Covid world of destination travel, luxury purchases and more personal freedom. Yet there are signs consumers are also becoming tapped out as Covid savings evaporate and US household debt rises, a sum now hovering around…
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Tale of Two Economies: Consumers Propel US Growth, Spend at Fastest Pace in Two Years. Soaring Transfer Payments & Credit Dim Outlook. Banks' Troubles To 'Intensify.' Fed Slammed.
The latest quarterly GDP, January through March, shows the US economy grew at a 2 percent annual rate driven by consumers spending at the fastest pace in nearly two years. Real personal income rose 2.4 percent quarter-over-quarter on an annual basis. Exports grew 3.5 times faster than imports....
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Russia Mutiny, China Fears, India Diplomacy Shake Globe. US Money Supply Plunges to 20% of Globe’s Currencies. Demographic Crisis Worsens, Immigration Offsets US Disaster. Fall of The Great Empires
The past week has seen a series of sweeping global developments — from the military mutiny in Russia that was suddenly averted, to the historic US visit by India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi. At the same time US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in…
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New Money Supply Report Shows Fed Likely to Hike Rates Twice More in 2023. 'We Are Overwhelmed With Debt,' Says Dick Bove. Financial Services Feeling Stressed. Yellen's Warning on Future of US Dollar
By one popular measure, the so-called M2, the US Money Supply is declining. However, by a broader count of the money in the financial system in America, known as the Odeon Cap Revised M3, the US money supply is expanding at a rapid pace, according to DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON...
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US Banks Losing Market Share, Face Fresh Challenges. Plunge in US Inflation Could Accelerate As Consumers Run Low on Cash. The American Dream? Currency Board Could Save Argentina. New Consumer Lenders
The Federal Reserve’s campaign to tame inflation is making steady progress. US data from May showed a deceleration in price rises. The closely-watched Consumer Price Index rose 4% in May compared with a year ago, down from April’s 4.9% increase — the smallest monthly increase in more than two...
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Fed’s Hikes Start to Bite. US Labor Force Data ‘Total Bologna,’ says DICK BOVE. Bank Balance Sheets Mislead Investors. Banks Require More Equity. AI Revolution. Is China Pushing US Companies Around?
The CONVERSATION strikes a note of incredulity with the publication of the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly labor market data. The data are “total bologna,” says DICK BOVE, both erratic and hard to swallow. The establishment survey shows 339,000 jobs were “created” by the US economy,...
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Bank of Hawaii at 'High Risk. It Has No Real Equity.' US Grocery Price War Shaping Up. More Rate Rises To Tame Inflation. Financial System Shrinking. Morgan Stanley's Massive Job Cuts in China.
The Federal Reserve is shrinking its balance sheet. Bank assets are flat. The money supply is plunging. These are some of the negative indicators of the US financial system, according to DICK BOVE, chief financialstrategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. Some positives: A rising stock market and the...
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CEO James Gorman's Departure Could Tear Morgan Stanley Apart, Ignite Feuds. JP Morgan Sits Atop $1.4 Trillion in Cash & Securities. KeyCorp's Outlook. Rising Stock Market Linked to Debt Ceiling Crisis
After 13 years at the helm of Morgan Stanley, JAMES GORMAN plans to step down as CEO within 12 months. He will remain as executive chairman. DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, says GORMAN'S departure is a major "blow" to Morgan Stanley. "To lose someone with his...
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Financial Squeeze on US Banks in China, Local Staff Fired En Masse, Source Says. Unconfirmed Report Links Dollar. Empire Manufacturing Index Signals Recession. Card Loan Losses Grow. Big Banks Hurt
The CONVERSATION examines the latest Empire Manufacturing Index, a measure of business activity in New York State, which is now 42 points below where it stood 12 months ago. The widely-followed index is at its lowest level since 2009, showing decreases in orders, shipments and payrolls at...
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US Banks' Systemic Risks Will Lead to More Failures, DICK BOVE Says. Short Sellers Put Regionals Under Pressure. Almost 50% of Americans Think Their Bank Deposits Are Unsafe. Fed Loses $7M Every Hour
The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates again this month by 25 basis points, bringing it to a range between 5% and 5.25%. The widely-anticipated hike marked the tenth time the Fed has moved rates upward since March 2022, as part of its aggressive campaign to tame inflation. And while the Fed...
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Fed & FDIC 'Screwed' Small Banks in First Republic’s Bargain Sale to JP Morgan, says DICK BOVE. Investors' New Game, Short-Selling Banks. Record Number of High Earners File for Unemployment Benefits
The CONVERSATION examines the sale of troubled California-based First Republic Bank to JP Morgan. The deal comes after a stormy period in the banking sector with the failures of Silicon Valley and Signature banks, a dark cloud hanging over First Republic and a brewing S&L-style crisis facing many...
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Bank Crisis Not Over. Deposits Still Flee. Some 100-Plus Banks Face S&L-Style Catastrophe, Says DICK BOVE. Data Shows Signs of Imminent Recession. Credit Crunch Coming. Global Military Spending Grows
The CONVERSATION opens with DICK BOVE's review of the latest data from the Fed's Beige Book on economic conditions in America. BOVE concludes that all the data points to a peak in activity across many sectors. "Everything that came back was indicative of a significant slowing in the economy,"…
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US Inflation Falling Rapidly. Hard Landing & Rising Unemployment Now 'Possible.' Here's What Really Drove Bank Earnings 'Blowout' Numbers, says DICK BOVE. Consumers Lose Substantial Purchasing Power.
The US Fed is firing on all cylinders as its campaign to tame inflation appears to be succeeding. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, came in at five percent in March on an annual basis, down from six percent in February after peaking at nine percent. It's the smallest 12-month...
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Study by DICK BOVE Reveals More Troubled Banks. Lending Tightens. SVB's 'Incompetence' Blamed By Analyst For Its Downfall. Is Inverted Yield Curve Screaming Recession? Green Shoots for Manufacturing
A new study of US banks by DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, identified some ten percent as "challenged" among the selected group of banks, each with assets of over $10 billion. "The rapid shift from a recessionary environment to one heavily influenced by inflation has...
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US Fed Is Now Officially Broke With Negative Net Worth of $1 Trillion. Does It Matter? Who Saved SVB Customers & Bank Sector? Payments on Fed Debt Soars. Where Is America As China Struts World Stage?
The US Fed’s purchase of trillions of dollars in long duration securities at what is regarded as relatively low rates has had a more far-reaching impact on its book value than many may have realized, according to DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP. If the Fed’s net worth...
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BANKING CRISIS Special #3: Grilled in Washington, regulators face lawmakers' wrath. SVB risk management failures, Fed warnings ignored, bonuses. Plus, Is US in a Minsky Moment, facing economic ruin?
On Tuesday, March 28, the US Senate held hearings on the swift collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), the 16th largest bank in the US. By late last year, it had assets of about $209 billion. SVB's collapse, the second largest bank failure in US history, sent shock waves through the financial…
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BANKING CRISIS Special #2: DICK BOVE assesses the financial strength of US banks after more tumult follows SVB's collapse. Is the sector in a state of rot? Is media seeking to create bank runs?
More than a week after the sudden collapse of SILICON VALLEY BANK, and the failures at SIGNATURE and SILVERGATE banks, the CONVERSATION picks up where we left off on our last Special Episode. We look at the financial wreckage of these disasters as well as the trouble at FIRST REPUBLIC BANK, and…
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BANKING CRISIS Special #1: Rise & Fall of SILICON VALLEY BANK, Failures of SIGNATURE & SILVERGATE Banks. 'Depositors Lose Faith in Banks,' says DICK BOVE. Stark Reality of Blanket Deposit Guarantees
This Special Episode of ODEON CAPITAL CONVERSATIONS examines the series of events that led to the sudden collapse of SILICON VALLEY BANK, ranked America's 16th largest bank, as well as the demise of SILVERGATE and SIGNATURE banks. The CONVERSATION will evaluate the impact on the industry, the...
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Fed's Impossible Balance Sheet, Huge S&L Style Trouble. Clearer Signs of Recession. Urgent Need for Investing Concepts. Auto, Housing & Consumer Sectors Deteriorating. China's Tech Ambitions vs USA.
The Fed has entered a new phase after fifteen years of Quantitative Easy (QE), or easy money. The "experiment" says DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, has gone very badly wrong. In this episode, he presents the quandary for the Fed in this period of rising interest…
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US Government Off-Balance Sheet Debt Now HUGELY Exceeds National Debt. Why Rising Interest Rates Are Not Going Away. January's Inflation Alarm. What Could Force Return of QE? Goldman Ignores Reality.
DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, takes a close look at the full extent of the US Government's off-balance sheet debt. In doing so, he describes an immense financial burden, a sum as much as three to six times that of America's national debt now at $31.4 trillion. BOVE...
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Walmart Economy, Wealthier Customers Shop for Basics. US Household Debt Soars. Trade Deficit Improving But Negative, $1 Trillion in 2022. DICK BOVE'S Investing Concepts. Government Accounting 'Fraud.'
The CONVERSATION begins with the markets negative response to reports by Walmart and other large US retailers showing increased belt-tightening by cash-strapped consumers. The episode also examines whether America is in a financial crisis worse than is reported by the US government. While retail...
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State of US Economy From Pandemic Money Printing to Mounting Layoffs. Fed's Financial Tightrope, Rising Rates, Inflation, QE. 'Disappointing' CPI. Recession vs Inverted Yield Curve. New World Order
From the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report to DICK BOVE's comprehensive new report on the US economy, this episode of ODEON CAPITAL CONVERSATIONS is a timely analysis on some of the key happenings and events on Wall Street. "Disappointing" is how MAT VAN ALSYTNE describes the latest CPI...
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US Unemployment Rate Lowest in 50 Years! How to Square Mounting Layoffs with Record Job Openings? ‘Data Shows Staggering Scale of Job Losses,’ Dick Bove says. Banks May Face Pressure to Raise Rates
DICK BOVE, chief financial strategist at ODEON CAPITAL GROUP, says calculating the number of people working in America every month is a mammoth task – and it’s a task that cannot be properly done. That’s why this veteran industry analyst is skeptical of the latest jobs report for January, and of...
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ABOUT THIS SHOW
Deep dive into all things money and markets with leading industry veterans. This program of well-informed conversations and debate features the famed bank analyst and media personality Dick Bove, chief financial strategist at Odeon Capital Group, and Mathew Van Alstyne, Odeon managing partner and co-founder. Odeon is a full-service independent broker/dealer and investment bank. This podcast is hosted by John Aidan Byrne, an award-winning business journalist. Disclosures: http://www.odeoncap.com/legal
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