PODCAST · business
On Point
by Craigs Investment Partners
Stay on point with Craigs. Keep up to date with the latest developments in financial markets and the economy.Investing involves risks. You aren’t guaranteed to make money and you might lose the money you started with. Any information provided is general, current at the time and not financial advice. It doesn’t take into account your particular financial situation. We don't accept liability for results of actions taken or not taken based on information provided. Before making any investment decision we recommend you seek professional assistance from an investment adviser. Visit craigsip.com.
Episodes
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ep 404 | The week ahead - Can markets shake off this volatility, or is there more to come?
It was a mixed week for global markets, as investors became increasingly concerned about rising oil prices and worries that tech companies were borrowing too much for the AI buildout. US crude rose another 10% finishing at US$101 a barrel, while Brent crude hit $110. The S&P 500 was down 2.0%,...
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ep 403 | As markets hit the home stretch, what can investors expect?
It’s been a strong year so far, with most sharemarkets performing well despite some volatility along the way. With just a few months to go, markets have plenty to contend with. We’ve got the stalemate in the Middle East, more interest hikes on the cards, as well as the New Zealand election and…
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ep 402 | The week ahead - Another cracking earnings season expected
The global reporting season ramps up this week, and it’s expected to be another very strong one. We'll hear from Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo, all on Tuesday. Other companies to monitor include Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth, as well as ASML and TSMC for...
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ep 401 | What’s going down with the NZ dollar?
In recent weeks and months, the NZ dollar has weakenedagainst many of our trading partners. It’s doing exactly what you’d expect it to against a shifting economic backdrop and widening interest rate differentials between ourselves and other countries. What might this mean for the economy, markets...
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ep 400 | The week ahead - Treasury set to unveil the PREFU
With the election just weeks away, Treasury will release the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) on Tuesday and we'll get a fresh look at the state of our collective finances. Internationally, it will be a big week of US economic releases with highlights likely to be the PCE inflation...
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ep 399 | What does a Fed hiking cycle mean for markets?
The US Federal Reserve, the world’s most influentialcentral bank, has increased interest rates for the first time since 2023. With more likely to be on the way, this looks to be the beginning of another interest rate “hiking cycle”. What might this mean for markets, and what can we learn from...
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ep 398 | The week ahead - NZ dollar slumps to a 15-year low
Global flash purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) will be the highlight of the coming week, as we monitor how the global economy will enter the final quarter of the year. On the political front, investors will be watching the summit between US president Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi...
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ep 397 | Are bonds back to the old normal?
Global bond yields have kept on rising, as investors fret over higher government debt levels, rising oil prices and competition from debt issuance to fund AI infrastructure. What do investors need to know, are bonds back to the old normal, and is fixed income finally moving toward its former…
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ep 396 | The week ahead - Have oil and inflation forced the Fed's hand?
Global financial markets had a rough week, with an escalating situation in the Middle East pushing oil prices back over $100 and rising bond yields continuing to pressure asset prices. This week's main event will be the Federal Reserve, which will release its latest policy decision on Thursday...
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ep 395 | The week ahead - The report that could determine the Fed's next move
After a much stronger than expected US jobs report last week, investors will be laser focused on the August CPI report this week. This is the last major inflation reading ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision the following week, and it could determine whether they choose to hike...
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ep 394 | Value, growth, or a bit of both?
We investment types love putting things into categories or themes, and shares are no exception. Two of the most common labels are “growth” and “value”, which are terms investors have used for decades to describe different types of companies and investment styles. What do these mean, and which…
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ep 393 | The week ahead - Another OCR hike on the cards?
The key event on the domestic calendar will be the latest Official Cash Rate (OCR) decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Another 0.25% hike is widely expected, which would take the OCR to 2.75%. This will also see the release of a fresh Monetary Policy Statement, which means a new set of...
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ep 392 | What does a tight election race mean for markets?
There’s just ten weeks until the New Zealand election, and things are getting interesting. The rise of the Opportunity Party in the polls has added another layer of uncertainty to the range of potential outcomes. So much so that prediction markets and some Australian bookmakers now have Labour as...
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ep 391 | The week ahead - Rising bond yields rattle global markets
It was a highly eventful week across financial markets, with equity markets mixed and long bond yields rising further. The S&P 500 index broke a three-week winning streak while the local NZX 50 posted its third consecutive weekly rise. Central banks will be in focus this week, with the annual...
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ep 390 | Are sharemarket valuations too high?
There’s lots of nervousness about sharemarket valuationsat the moment. That’s understandable, especially regarding the US market which has more than tripled in value since the end of 2018. How should investors be thinking about valuations right now, and is it a good time to put capital towork?
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ep 389 | The week ahead - Local earnings deluge incoming
We'll get a raft of local releases this week, with Selected Price Indexes and the Performance of Services Index for July due Monday, before the results of a dairy auction on Wednesday. However, the main event will be the earnings season which ramps up in a big way on the NZX. We're hoping for…
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ep 388 | What should we expect this earnings season?
The local earnings season is upon us, with a plethora of listed companies due to announce results this month. This will offer some valuable insights into the state of corporate New Zealand and the broader economy, after a mixed bag of indicators in recent months.
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ep 387 | The week ahead - Will US inflation fall enough for the Fed?
The economic highlight of the week will be the CPI inflation report in the US, which covers the month of July and is out on Wednesday. This release takes on greater importance after the soft jobs report, which saw expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes fall back sharply. Markets now...
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ep 386 | Spotlight on the US equity market
There's a lot going on in the US at the moment, from monetary policy and midterms, to earnings releases and market leadership rotations. We spoke to a US equities expert at JPMorgan Asset Management to answer some of our questions and provide some insights into the investment outlook.
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ep 385 | Big market moves under the hood
If you’ve only glanced at the S&P 500 index in the US these past few months, you might conclude it’s been a relatively quiet period. The market is up around 11 per cent this year, just slightly below its all-time high. Nothing to see here. Look under the hood, however, and it’s a completely...
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ep 384 | The week ahead - Earnings roll on as markets endure massive volatility
It’ll be another busy week of corporate earnings releases too, with close to 140 more S&P 500 companies scheduled to report. A wide range of sectors will be represented, with some of the highlights likely to be Caterpillar, McDonald's,Disney, Uber and Republic Services. SpaceX will announce its...
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ep 383 | The OCR is headed higher, but is the economy?
The dust has settled on the Reserve Bank’s July hike in the Official Cash Rate, the first in three years. There’s been plenty of debate about whether that was the right move or not, but developments since then (like stronger inflation and a rise in oil prices) suggest it probably was. However,...
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ep 382 | The week ahead - Oil prices surge ahead of the Fed meeting
A busy week looms, with monetary policy decisions due in the US, UK and Japan. Corporate earnings releases will also be closely watched, with some 180 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report. Tech will be very much in the spotlight as we hear from US heavyweights Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon…
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ep 381 | How the '87 crash shaped a generation
The sharemarket crash of 1987 was a major global event, but it hit New Zealand harder than other countries. Our sharemarket fell much more than the likes of the US, UK and Japan, while the recovery took much longer. That scarred an generation and changed the fabric of how we invest, but are those...
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ep 380 | The week ahead - Will strong earnings put markets in a better mood?
A cooler US inflation reading and strong bank earnings releases weren't enough to offset the nervousness, for which there have been several catalysts. US crude oil prices are up, while hawkish comments from Fed officials pushed interest rates higher. Investors have also continued to sell chip...
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ep 379 | Is America just built different?
America has dominated the global economy for decades despite repeated predictions its best days are behind it. Is the strength of the United States due to its geographical advantages, entrepreneurial spirit or financial advantages? Let's discuss some of the reasons America has been able to...
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ep 378 | The week ahead - It's OCR week! Will the RBNZ hike or hold?
It'll be a holiday-shortened week here in New Zealand, with markets closed for the Matariki holiday on Friday. The clear highlight will be the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) decision on Wednesday, which is shaping up as a very interesting one. Market pricing implies a 76% chance of a hike,...
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ep 377 | How is the second half of 2026 shaping up?
The first six months of the calendar year were volatile, punctuated by the conflict in Iran. Despite that, markets have performed very well. What might the second half bring, and does the recent retrenchment in oil prices clear the way for more strong gains?
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ep 376 | The week ahead - Oil prices crash as the Strait of Hormuz reopens
Oil prices fell 10% on the back of hopes for a sustained resolution in the Middle East grew. That saw US crude finish the week just below US$70, almost 40% below last month’s peak and the lowest since late February. Are we out of the woods when it comes to inflation and rising interest rate risk?
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ep 375 | Deals and dots mean changes for central banks
A few different balls are up in the air across the central banking world, and change is afoot. Recent declines in oil prices have seen the odds of OCR hikes change, while the Federal Reserve in the US has entered a new era with Kevin Warsh as Chair. We’ll get a useful sense check in a fortnight...
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ep 374 | Should we worry about rising government debt?
Investors often ask us how worried they should be about rising government debt. It’s a very fair question, and Budget 2026 showed that New Zealand’s books remain under pressure. If you or I live beyond our means, borrow too much and can’t repay our debts, we’ll eventually run out of options....
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ep 373 | The week ahead - The Kevin Warsh era begins at the Fed
Central banks will be in focus this week, with the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy decision the highlight on Thursday morning (NZ time). As well as being Kevin Warsh's inaugural meeting as Chair, we'll also get a fresh Summary of Economic Projections from the Fed. Monetary policy…
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ep 372 | The SpaceX IPO is bigger than you think
SpaceX is about to become one of the largest listed companies in the world, with an estimated valuation of almost US$1.8 trillion. Whether this valuation is justified is an area of intense debate right now. Some see an extraordinary growth story spanning launch services, satellite communications...
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ep 371 | The week ahead - Tech stocks stumble as SpaceX prepares to debut
It was a challenging end to the week on Wall Street, with the growth-heavy Nasdaq index falling 4.2% on Friday, its biggest daily decline since April last year. The S&P 500 index in the US fell 2.6% for the week, breaking a nine-week winning streak. Looking ahead, US inflation will be in the...
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ep 370 | Don't let your home bias be your downfall
Wherever you go in the world, it’s very common for investors to have a home bias. People tend to anchor their portfolio with what they know, which is the local market. Kiwis will often have a healthy exposure to New Zealand shares, Australians usually start with what’s on the ASX, and Americans…
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ep 369 | The week ahead - Markets keep marching higher in May
US shares had another great month with the S&P 500 index rising 5.1% in May. However, only three out of 11 sectors were up for the month, with a 15.9% gain from the dominant tech sector driving the overall market up. Other markets were strong too, with emerging market shares continued their…
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ep 368 | Why inflation expectations are so important right now
We’ve seen a lot of economic releases over the last several weeks, but the most important of all were probably the two that covered inflation expectations. It might sound odd that what people think might happen trumps what’s actually happening across the economy, but right now that’s very much…
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ep 367 | The week ahead - Will the RBNZ hike or hold the OCR?
A massive week looms here in New Zealand. The RBNZ will deliver its latest policy decision on Wednesday and while there is only an outside chance of an OCR hike, markets expect the RBNZ to lay the groundwork for moves at the following meeting. A day later we'll get Budget 2026, which is shaping…
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ep 366 | The sharemarket that’s been crushing the US
The US sharemarket has had a great run of late, rebounding strong from the March lows and hitting fresh highs. The S&P 500 is now up more than eight per cent in 2026 (including dividends), and we're only a third of the way through the year. That's impressive, especially given the volatility we've...
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ep 365 | What might OCR hikes mean for markets?
The Reserve Bank meets later this month, and there’s an outside chance the Official Cash Rate (OCR) will rise by 0.25%. If there’s no move this week, the focus will shift to the July meeting, where markets see an increase as almost certain. What might it mean for the economy, financial markets…
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ep 364 | The week ahead - Trump and Xi to meet against a volatile backdrop
A highlight of the week will be the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, scheduled for May 14-15. This will be the first since Trump returned to office last January, and there will be no shortage of issues to discuss.
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ep 363 | What’s the Consumers Price Index anyway?
Inflation is always a hot topic in financial markets, and it’ll be even more prominent as fuel prices push it higher over the next quarter or two. There’s a healthy cynicism about our official inflation figures, and many people would argue their own cost of living has increased more than these...
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ep 362 | The week ahead - Is our unemployment rate headed higher?
In the coming week, the economic highlight will be the April jobs report in the US. On the central banking front, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will be in the spotlight on Tuesday afternoon. Here in Aotearoa, the March labour force report will be the highest profile release, while we'll…
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ep 361 | Why is the US sharemarket so strong?
The S&P 500 index in the US has increased for four consecutive weeks, rebounding strongly from the weakness in March. That leaves it up 13 per cent from the recent lows, and almost three per cent above its pre-conflict peak. You could be forgiven for wondering why the sharemarket is hitting new...
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ep 360 | The week ahead - Will Big Tech earnings push the market higher?
Some 180 S&P 500 companies are due to report this week, representing 44% of the S&P 500 by market cap. Half of that (so about 22%) comes on Wednesday, which will be a very busy day for corporate earnings releases. We’ll hear from five of the so-called "Magnificent 7" cohort this week (Alphabet,...
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ep 359 | Could 1970s-style stagflation happen again today?
Stagflation has been in the headlines in recent weeks, as the oil price shock threatens to push inflation back up while taking a big chunk out of economic activity at the same time. The term is used to describe the highly undesirable combination of low growth, high unemployment, and high…
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ep 358 | The week ahead - US shares surge to new highs, but will they stay there?
The S&P 500 index in the US surged another 4.5% last week to close at fresh highs, after some positive developments in the Middle East. After being down 9.1% from its January peak in late March, the S&P 500 has rebounded 12.3% to surpass those previous highs and sit 4.1% above where it started…
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ep 357 | Conflict leaves markets at a crucial crossroads
With the war between the US and Iran entering its seventh week, we’re close to an important crossroads for markets. In the last several days we’ve had a ceasefire agreement, the highest-level diplomatic meetings between the two nations since the 1979 Iranian revolution, and US moves to blockade…
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ep 356 | The week ahead - Markets monitor Iran talks as earnings season kicks off
Investors will be closely monitoring US-Iran talks in Islamabad over the coming days, the highest-level diplomatic meeting between Iran and the US since the 1979 Iranian revolution. This will comes as the quarterly international earnings season kicks off with the US banking heavyweights set to...
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ep 355 | What's the best way to invest that lump sum?
If you’re lucky enough to have a bit of surplus cash right now, it’s a difficult time to think about putting it to work. Diving in boots and all is foolhardy, while waiting in the wings for perfect conditions can be equally unwise. What's the best strategy for investors to use?
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ABOUT THIS SHOW
Stay on point with Craigs. Keep up to date with the latest developments in financial markets and the economy.Investing involves risks. You aren’t guaranteed to make money and you might lose the money you started with. Any information provided is general, current at the time and not financial advice. It doesn’t take into account your particular financial situation. We don't accept liability for results of actions taken or not taken based on information provided. Before making any investment decision we recommend you seek professional assistance from an investment adviser. Visit craigsip.com.
HOSTED BY
Craigs Investment Partners
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many episodes does On Point have?
On Point currently has 400 episodes available on PodParley. New episodes are automatically indexed when they're published to the podcast feed.
What is On Point about?
Stay on point with Craigs. Keep up to date with the latest developments in financial markets and the economy.Investing involves risks. You aren’t guaranteed to make money and you might lose the money you started with. Any information provided is general, current at the time and not financial...
How often does On Point release new episodes?
On Point publishes regularly with 400 episodes available. Check the episode list for the typical release schedule.
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Who hosts On Point?
On Point is created and hosted by Craigs Investment Partners.
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