PODCAST · news
Overwatch
by Institute for the Study of War
Overwatch, an Institute for the Study of War podcast, goes beyond the news headlines to give listeners analysis and commentary on issues related to U.S. national security and American foreign policy. The episodes feature discussions with experts and practitioners to explore what challenges and opportunities lie ahead for the U.S.
Episodes
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Can Russia Rebuild Its Military? An Examination of the Russian Military's Wartime Reform Plans
Russian leaders have set forth a plan to significantly expand the Russian military in the coming years. This ambitious plan involves the creation of numerous new units and military districts as well as significant improvements in organization and capability. On this episode of Overwatch, Critical...
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One Year of War Part 3: How Western Weaponry Has Affected Russia's Invasion of Ukraine
Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and Russia Analyst and Geospatial Team Lead George Barros discuss the effects of HIMARS and other advanced Western weapons deliveries on the conflict and the nature of Vladimir Putin's so-called red lines in the conflict. George provides insight into how ISW produces...
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One Year of War Part 2: Russia's Military and Occupation Struggles
Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and Russia Analyst Karolina Hird discuss the Russian military's struggles on the battlefield and the challenges faced by Russian occupation authorities in Ukraine. Karolina explains how ISW uses open sources to track human rights abuses and Russian repression measures...
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One Year of War Part 1: The Strife between Russia's Mercenaries, Milbloggers, and Military
Russia Team Lead Mason Clark and Russia Analyst Kateryna Stepanenko discuss the influence of milbloggers on the domestic Russian information space, the role of the Wagner Private Military Company, and the nature of the Kremlin's nuclear rhetoric. ISW is marking the first anniversary of Russia's...
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E69: Iran Challenges Turkey's Growing Influence in Iraq
Iran is directing a proxy military campaign to contain Turkey's growing economic, political, and security influence in Iraq. Iranian leaders consider Turkey's expanding reach to be a threat to Iranian national security, and Tehran is trying to contain Turkish activity without inciting overt...
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E68: ISW Analysts Discuss Iraq's Security and Stability
This episode of Overwatch is a recorded discussion between ISW analysts reflecting on a paper ISW published in June 2021 entitled Iraq 2021-2022: A Forecast. The discussion will cover what we got right and wrong in forecasting Iraq's political and security trajectories, the risk of civil war in...
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E67: Iranian Missile Strike Demonstrates Growing Threat to US Forces in Iraq
A recent Iranian missile attack into Iraqi Kurdistan indicates the growing threat Tehran poses to the United States and its partners in the Middle East. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) fired 12 short-range ballistic missiles at Erbil, Iraq, on March 13, targeting an alleged Israeli...
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E66: New Moderate Political Bloc in Iran May Complicate Supreme Leader's Succession
A new political bloc is forming in Iran, comprised primarily of relative moderates and reformists seeking to reassert their political influence in the regime. This bloc includes prominent Iranian politicians, such as former President Hassan Rouhani and former Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani, who...
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E65: Russia's Options on Ukraine Remain Varied and Flexible
Russia continues to increase its military forces poised on Ukraine's border. The situation is tense, deadly, and complicated. On this episode, ISW Russia Team Lead Mason Clark explains the current military picture and what he and his team believe will happen next.
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E64: Iran's Proxies to Fight to Maintain Influence in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon in 2022
Iran-backed proxy militant networks played massive roles in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon in 2021. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW Research Director Matt McInnis sits down with ISW Researchers Kat Lawlor and Zach Coles to discuss what Iran's so-called "Axis of Resistance" may do in 2022. Kat and…
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E63: Russia Faces Rising Stakes at Home and Abroad in 2022
Over the past year, ISW's Russia team has closely tracked Russia's efforts to integrate Belarus, its growing threats to Ukraine's independence, and a range of other malign activities elsewhere in the world. Escalating events in 2022 and Putin's need to set conditions ahead of the Russian...
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E62: Taliban Face Massive Governing Challenges in 2022 as Poverty and Rival Militants Surge
The Taliban's takeover of the Afghan government in 2021 brought the biggest shift in that country since the US invasion 20 years ago. On this episode of Overwatch, ISW Research Director Matt McInnis sits down with ISW Afghanistan Researcher Peter Mills to talk about what to expect in Afghanistan…
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E61: Turkey Faces Growing Political, Military, and Economic Challenges in 2022
A tumultuous 2021 shows no signs of letting up for Turkey. Caught between the competing interests of Russia, the US, and the EU while being led by a man who believes Turkey ought to assert itself as an equal to those powers means Turkey's limited resources will remain tightly strained in 2022. On...
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E60: Islamic State Khorasan Province Threatens Stability of Taliban-Controlled Afghanistan and the Region
The Taliban takeover of Afghanistan has started a new phase in the war against the Islamic State. Islamic State Khorasan Province (IS-KP) is the local Afghan branch of Islamic State, which fought first the US-backed Afghan government and has continued to fight against the new Taliban government…
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E59: Belarusian President Escalates Ongoing Migrant Crisis on Polish Border to Undermine the European Union
Thousands of migrants from the Middle East have become stranded on the border between Belarus and Poland, creating a dangerous stand-off between the two countries. With the European Union behind Poland and Russia supporting Belarus's authoritarian president, Alexander Lukashenko, the situation…
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E58: Turkish Troop Movements on Syrian Border Indicate Possible Incursion against US Partner Forces
Turkish President Erdogan may launch a new incursion into Syria that could target the Syrian Defense Forces, the US partner in the counter-ISIS fight. Turkish troops assembled in border areas near SDF positions and Turkish-occupied parts of northern Syria in late October, though deployments…
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E57: Soviet-era Iran Planning Holds Lessons for Modern US Middle East Strategy
The Defense Department recently declassified a briefing Dr. David Crist prepared in 2020 on US war planning in the Middle East against the Soviet Union from 1979 to 1987. On this episode of Overwatch, Dr. Crist talks to ISW Research Director Matthew McInnis about this assessment and what it may...
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E56: 20 Years after 9/11: US Counterterrorism has Seen Successes, but Major Groups Remain Undefeated
We're nearing the 20th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the start of the war in Afghanistan. Following the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, the Taliban have seized control of the country, and the US-backed government has collapsed. Meanwhile, Turkey, Russia, China, and other...
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E55: New Technology, Deadlier Weapons, and Disinformation Campaigns: How Russia Sees the Future of Warfare
Russian leaders have a very specific vision for the future of warfare, one that US leaders need to understand if they are to effectively counter Russian strategy and technology. This is the second episode in our series examining the Russian understanding of hybrid war. In our first episode on…
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E54: The Russian Concept of Hybrid War and Why it Matters for US Policy
Russian leaders and policymakers use the term "hybrid war" to refer to a very specific type of conflict, while their counterparts in the West tend to use that same term in a general sense to refer to different kinds of conflict that include a mix of conventional and asymmetrical means. US leaders...
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E53: What Happens When Iran's Supreme Leader Dies?
The struggle to succeed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is growing intense. Its outcome will have significant consequences for Iran, the Middle East, and the US. Khamenei's health has been failing for years, and his retirement or passing seems increasingly imminent. Current indicators suggest...
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E52: ISIS Activity Surges in Major Syrian Displacement Camp
ISIS has carried out more acts of violence in the Al Hawl displacement camp in the first quarter of 2021 than in all of 2020. The militant group exploits camp members for propaganda and recruitment, fueling its activities elsewhere in northeast Syria. The US-partnered Syrian Democratic Forces has...
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E51: The Dangers of Disengagement: Gen. David H. Petraeus on Withdrawing US Troops from Afghanistan
Civil war and an unrestrained al Qaeda are all but certain should the US withdraw its forces from Afghanistan in May per the US-Taliban deal signed over a year ago. American disengagement will only embolden revisionist powers and create an even more dangerous security situation for the region and...
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E50: What Does Iran's Presidential Election Mean for Biden's Policy?
The results of the Iranian presidential election in June 2021 will determine whether Iran shifts toward greater cooperation or increasing conflict with the United States. This uncertainty comes as the Biden administration is trying to reboot diplomacy with Iran using an ambitious agenda that goes...
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E49: Russia's Putin Exploits War, Crisis, and Disease to Expand his Power in 2020
Vladimir Putin enjoyed a successful 2020 despite a slate of setbacks to his agenda. New constitutional amendments will allow him to rule the Russian state for life. Putin manipulated the crisis in Belarus to gain leverage over that country and successfully expanded Russian military ties to…
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E48: What Will Biden Do on Iran?
Tensions between the United States and Iran are high as a transition in administrations has happened in Washington, DC. President Joe Biden and his top national security advisers want to get back into the nuclear deal with Iran and make it stronger if Iran is willing to get back into compliance...
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E47: Violent Crisis in Ethiopia Threatens East African Regional Stability
A civil war between Ethiopia's central government and one of its regional states threatens security across East Africa. Ethiopia is Africa's second-most populous country and a US security partner; the humanitarian and security consequences of this domestic conflict have already begun to affect…
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E46: A People's War: COVID-19 Response Reveals China's Military Mobilization Strategy
The COVID-19 pandemic is changing the global order and reshaping the balance of power on the world stage. The lessons that nations and their militaries take from this crisis will shape their capacity to adapt to COVID-19 and enhance their resilience to future crises. Elsa Kania, ISW's…
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E45: H.R. McMaster on American Strategy during a Presidential Transition
The United States holds enormous power and responsibility in the world. With the US presidential transition underway, ISW President Kim Kagan sat down with Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster (US Army, ret.) to discuss the many challenges facing the United States, including the pernicious effect of Chinese...
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E44: Kremlin Intensifies War in Donbas to Undermine Ukrainian Government in Elections
The recent local elections in Ukraine were an important political battleground in Putin's contest to restore Kremlin-friendly rule and annex territory in that country, the objective behind his 2014 invasion of Ukraine. The Kremlin's costly military operations failed to achieve their desired...
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E43: Kremlin Exploits Crisis to Secure Greater Russian Control of Belarus
Russian President Vladimir Putin has a longstanding objective to integrate Belarus into Russian-controlled structures. The Kremlin is undermining the Belarusian president's attempts to calm protests while simultaneously using the protest movement to justify Russian involvement in Belarusian...
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E42: Vicious Cycles in the Middle East and Africa Continue to Threaten US National Security Despite Efforts to Withdraw
The US is routinely confronted with crises that worsen and expand in scope over time. Modern technology and global interconnectedness have made these self-reinforcing crises increasingly common and intractable. In this episode of Overwatch, Emily Estelle discusses this phenomenon and the danger…
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E41: Iraq's "October Revolution" Protests Resume as a Tense Country Looks On
Mass anti-government protests erupted in Iraq in October 2019. The protests led to the resignation of the government in what became known as the "October Revolution," but not before crackdowns by Iraqi Security Forces and Iran-backed proxies killed over 600 people. On this episode of Overwatch,...
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E40: Putin's Offset: The Power of Perception
Russian President Vladimir Putin plays a weak hand well. His center of gravity is increasingly his ability to shape others' perception and create the image of a powerful Russia based on limited real power. He has several clear strengths, but also very real limitations. Nonetheless, he continues…
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E39: US Presence in Syria Remains a Critical Component in the Fight against ISIS
The United States retains a small but highly effective force in Syria. This force has a clear mission: defeat ISIS and prevent the resurgence of extremist groups in eastern Syria. However, poor communication and muddled media coverage has contributed to a lack of clarity regarding the role and...
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E38: General Jack Keane (US Army, Retired) Reflects on the 9/11 Attacks and the Ongoing War on Terror
ISW Board Chairman General Jack Keane (US Army, Retired) is a foreign policy and national security expert who was in the Pentagon on September 11, 2001. He went on to provide oversight and support for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. On this episode of Overwatch, General Keane (Ret.) recounts…
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E37: Local Unrest Threatens to Undermine Primary US Partner Force in Northeast Syria
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the local US partner force in northeast Syria, is facing intense pressure from ISIS, the Syrian Regime, and Turkey. The SDF's already-fraught relations with local Arab tribes have deteriorated significantly, especially in Deir ez-Zour Province. These issues…
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E36: Russia Threatens to Turn Belarus Unrest into Major International Crisis
Belarus has been in a state of civil unrest for several weeks. As popular protests came to pose a genuine threat to President Lukashenko's regime, Russia became involved to protect its interests in the country. Since then, the situation in Belarus has become exponentially more complicated…
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E35: Trump Says US Forces Are Leaving Iraq Soon, Undermining Visiting Iraqi Prime Minister
Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi was in Washington this week for high-level bilateral meetings known as the US-Iraqi Strategic Dialogue. Kadhimi has been hard-charging toward reforms in Iraq that would combat Iranian influence and prevent the country from collapse, but these efforts will…
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E34: ISIS Escalates Violence in Turkish-held Parts of Northwest Syria
Claimed ISIS attacks in Turkish and opposition-controlled northwest Syria have spiked in the past two months. The United States scaled down its forces in Syria and Iraq after the defeat of the Islamic State's contiguous territorial caliphate in 2019. US policy-makers have since focused on...
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E33: The Kremlin and Kyiv Agree to New Ceasefire in Ukraine
Russia is offering rare support for a new ceasefire in Ukraine's eastern region of Donbas by not blaming Ukraine for recent ceasefire violations, despite derailing several similar ceasefires in the past. The ceasefire began on July 27 and represents an important new development in the now...
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E32: Al Qaeda Infighting in Syria Tests Loyalty of Foreign Fighters
Al Qaeda-linked groups Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Hurras al Din clashed in late June and early July and remain at odds as defections prompted by the former's increasingly pro-Turkish posture continue. Al Qaeda is backing fighters from a diverse set of groups and HTS has likely secured Turkish...
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E31: Brawl between Islamic State and Al Qaeda in Africa May Strengthen Salafi-Jihadi Movement
The Islamic State and Al Qaeda are locked in a struggle for ideological supremacy in Africa. While this fight may seem appealing to the US, it presents some dangerous pitfalls that threaten US national security and the well-being of millions of Africans. In this episode of Overwatch, Emily…
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E30: Putin Rigs Constitutional Amendment to Extend His Presidency beyond 2024
Russian President Vladimir Putin recently enacted a constitutional amendment that will allow him to run for president again in 2024 and potentially remain in power until 2036. This amendment is a critical accomplishment for Putin, as term limits threatened to force him from office in 2024, but it...
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E29: US Launches New Round of Sanctions Targeting Syrian Regime
The Syrian Civil War is well into its ninth year and shows little sign of ending. The US recently deployed a new wave of sanctions targeting the Syrian Regime. Meanwhile, Russia, Turkey, and Iran are actively interfering with the UN peace process by running their own competing negotiations. In…
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E28: Pandemic Presents New Challenges and Opportunities for US National Security
The global health crisis caused by COVID-19 has affected nearly every aspect of American society and government. The pandemic has forced changes to individual lifestyles as well as the highest levels of policymaking. In this episode of Overwatch, ISW National Security Fellow Jennifer Cafarella...
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E27: US Ally Egypt Threatens Military Move into Libya against NATO Member Turkey
Egypt is preparing a military intervention to prevent Turkish-backed forces from advancing into eastern Libya. The intervention raises the risk of direct conflict with Turkey, which could spread throughout the region. Meanwhile, Russia is positioned to benefit from rising tensions between Turkey...
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E26: Future of US Troop Presence and Iraqi Security Uncertain as Strategic Dialogue Begins
The future of the roughly 5,000 US military personnel in Iraq is a key topic in a strategic dialogue that recently began between US and Iraqi negotiators. Iraqi opinion is split between those who oppose the continued US presence and those who believe it remains essential to Iraqi security. In the...
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E25: The Role of the Military in Civilian Unrest: Lessons from Iraq
The Hill recently published an op-ed by Institute for the Study of War Senior Fellow Lieutenant General Jim Dubik (US Army, Retired). Dubik is one of America's preeminent experts on military ethics. His latest op-ed draws on his experience with the US counterinsurgency campaign in Iraq and uses…
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E24: Assad's Economic Desperation Causes Cracks in Syrian Regime
The Syrian regime's desperate financial situation has led President Bashar al-Assad to persecute his own cousin as a pretense to seize his financial assets. The cousin in question, Rami Makhlouf, has been a key supporter of the regime for years and is one of Syria's richest men. His downfall...
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ABOUT THIS SHOW
Overwatch, an Institute for the Study of War podcast, goes beyond the news headlines to give listeners analysis and commentary on issues related to U.S. national security and American foreign policy. The episodes feature discussions with experts and practitioners to explore what challenges and opportunities lie ahead for the U.S.
HOSTED BY
Institute for the Study of War
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