Rabbit Hole Brief: Small Business
by Rabbit Hole Brief
Rabbit Hole Brief: Small Business is a daily briefing for owners and operators. Every weekday morning, two hosts run through what changed overnight — rates, regulations, taxes, hiring trends, and the money moves that affect Main Street — plus one practical tactic you can actually use, all before you unlock the front door. Built for people who run businesses, not people who tweet about them. A Rabbit Hole Brief production.
Episodes
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GDP Grows 3.4 Percent, PCE Inflation Ticks Up to 3.6 Percent, and Amazon Misses Despite Record Margins
Third-quarter GDP grows at a 3.4 percent annual rate while September PCE inflation ticks up to 3.6 percent, keeping a December Fed hike the expected outcome, as jobless claims hold at 194,000 and mortgage rates ease to 7.24 percent. Plus: Amazon misses headline estimates despite record operating...
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Fed Holds in a 10-2 Split, the 10-Year Climbs to 5.05 Percent, and Big Tech Splits on Cash
The Federal Reserve holds at 3.75 to 4.00 percent in a 10-2 vote with both dissenters favoring a hike, while the 10-year Treasury closes at 5.05 percent and oil eases toward 114 dollars on peace-talk hopes. Plus: mortgage applications rebound, Microsoft beats and Alphabet misses on cash flow, SBA...
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Confidence Jumps to 91.7, Equipment Orders Rise, and the Fed Decides Today
Consumer confidence jumps 7.5 points to 91.7 and September durable goods orders rise 1.8 percent with core equipment orders up, as the Federal Reserve prepares its 2 p.m. decision. Plus: oil rebounds toward $115 on a claimed refinery strike, SBA acquisition clarifications and a new Preferred...
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Oil Holds Near $116 as Tehran Talks Begin, the Fed Meets Today, and Texas Orders Cool
Brent crude holds near $116 as Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani officials talk in Tehran while Houthi attacks continue, and Monday factory reports show expansion with cooling orders. Plus: Verizon subscriber beat and deferred upgrades, SBA HUBZone additions including Michigan, a Shipley Donuts...
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Oil Eases From a Six-Month High, Business Activity Booms, and Small SBA Loans Vanish
Brent crude eases toward $114 after settling Friday at a six-month high of $116.72, while the flash PMI shows business activity booming with selling prices rising fastest since 2022 and final consumer sentiment holds near record lows. Plus: fiscal 2026 SBA data show small 7(a) loans vanishing…
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Yields Plunge Below 5 Percent in the Biggest Drop Since 2023, Oil Tops $114, and Claims Hit 194,000
The ten-year Treasury yield falls 19.3 basis points to 4.952 percent, its largest one-day drop since March 2023, as an AI spending selloff sends the Nasdaq down 2.6 percent, while Brent crude climbs above $114 on Saudi supply risk. Plus: jobless claims fall to 194,000, mortgage rates dip to 7.32...
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Oil Tops $110 on Saudi Attacks, Mortgage Applications Fall 5.3 Percent, and 689 Federal Contractors Face a Fraud Audit
Brent crude climbs above $110 after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia prompt a U.S. diplomatic withdrawal, while EIA inventories fall and mortgage applications drop 5.3 percent even as rates dip to 7.41 percent. Plus: Meta, Tesla and AT&T earnings reads, a GSA and SBA fraud audit of 689 federal...
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Pending Home Sales Hit a Record Low, Housing Starts Fall 5.2 Percent, and Oil Climbs Back Toward $110
Pending home sales fall 7.3 percent to a record low and housing starts drop 5.2 percent as mortgage rates above seven percent thin the November pipeline, while Brent crude climbs back toward $110 on widening Hormuz attacks. Plus: yields split at 5.12 percent, December remains the Fed meeting to...
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Builder Sentiment Falls to a 14-Year Low, Oil Tops $110, and Yields Climb Back Above 5 Percent
Builder confidence falls three points to 29, its lowest since June 2012, as mortgage rates above seven percent thin buyer traffic to a fourteen-year low, while Brent crude climbs back above $110 on Hormuz attacks. Plus: yields rebound to 5.14 percent, December remains the Fed meeting to plan for,...
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Oil Slips From a Five-Month High on a Russia Waiver, Import Prices Jump, and Yields Post Their Biggest Weekly Drop in Eight Months
Brent crude falls from a five-month high after the President waives Russia sanctions and tariffs, but Hormuz disruptions keep oil above one hundred dollars, while import prices rise 1.1 percent and industrial production beats forecasts. Plus: yields post their biggest weekly drop in eight months,...
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Producer Prices Surge 1.3 Percent, Retail Sales Rise on Gasoline, and the Holiday Forecast Tops a Trillion
September producer prices jump 1.3 percent, the fastest since March 2022, with goods up 2.6 percent on energy, while retail sales beat forecasts mostly on gasoline station receipts. Plus: yields fall despite the hot print, the SBA recognizes content creators as small businesses, the NRF expects a...
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CPI Comes in Hot at 3.7 Percent, an October Hike Is Back on the Table, and Today Is Tax Deadline Day
September CPI rises to 3.7 percent year over year with core at 2.6 percent, putting an October Fed hike back on the table, and the Beige Book shows diesel costs passing through every district. Plus: Bank of America and Morgan Stanley close bank earnings, M&T grows SBA 7(a) lending while the...
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CPI Comes in Hot at 3.7 Percent, an October Hike Is Back on the Table, and Today Is Tax Deadline Day
September CPI rises to 3.7 percent year over year with core at 2.6 percent, putting an October Fed hike back on the table, and the Beige Book shows diesel costs passing through every district. Plus: Bank of America and Morgan Stanley close bank earnings, M&T grows SBA 7(a) lending while the...
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CPI Lands Today, Big Banks Post 1.8 Billion, and Your October 15 Deadline Is Tomorrow
September CPI lands at 8:30am ET with headline inflation expected near 3.6% on energy while core cools, and yields start the day below last week's 24-year highs. Plus: big banks post a combined 1.75 billion in Q3 profits led by Goldman Sachs, existing home sales mark the slowest two months of the...
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NFIB Optimism Slips to 97.9, Big-Bank Earnings Kick Off, and Yields Ease After the Holiday
NFIB optimism slips 0.8 points to 97.9 as uncertainty grows, the ten-year Treasury eases to about 5.20% as bond markets reopen, and JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo kick off bank earnings. Plus: a new SBA and Department of War capital path for defense suppliers, today's…
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Oil Eases on an Unconfirmed Truce, Sentiment Near a Record Low, and Bank Earnings Ahead
Oil falls after the President announces a Russia-Ukraine energy truce that neither Kyiv nor Moscow has confirmed, while Brent still holds above $100 after a violent weekend in the Gulf. Plus: Michigan consumer sentiment drops to 46.3 with current conditions at a record low, what Wednesday's CPI...
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Oil Eases, Mortgages Hit 7.40%, and CPI Week Is Coming
Oil eases slightly after the President says the U.S. won't strike Iran before the midterms, though Brent still holds above $100. Plus: mortgage rates reach 7.40%, what next week's CPI report means for the Fed's December decision and your borrowing costs, and the week-ahead calendar for Main Street.
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Oil Tops $104, the Fed Minutes Point to One More Hike, and Your October 15 Tax Clock Is Ticking
Brent crude tops $104 on shipping attacks and Gulf shutdowns, pushing the 30-year Treasury back toward 24-year highs. Plus: the Fed minutes point to one more hike this year, the October 15 tax and retirement deadlines are one week away, Red Robin's $115M franchise-led refinancing, and a 10-day...
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Oil Back Above $100, the 30-Year Yield Hits a 24-Year High, and the Fed Minutes Land Today
Brent crude climbs past $100 and the 30-year Treasury touches its highest level since 2002 — what that means for fuel, rent, and borrowing. Plus: today's Fed minutes and the December rate outlook, the merchant-cash-advance lien trap that can quietly kill a cheaper refinance, and a 30-day fuel and...
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AI Is Growing Small Businesses, Wall Street Still Funds Main Street, and Fraud Defense Is a Checklist
TD Bank's Eyes on Growth survey finds 99% of small businesses now use AI — and most say it's growing headcount, not cutting it. Plus: a $93.1M securitization shows lenders still back Main Street, tomorrow's Fed minutes could move December rate odds, and a six-step fraud checklist you can run this...
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Bond Yields at 19-Year Highs, New SBA Rules, and a Slower September for Jobs
Monday's briefing for small-business owners: the 10-year Treasury closed at 5.28%, its highest since 2007, and what it means for your borrowing; the SBA's new October 1 lending rules — fee waivers for manufacturers, food supply chain, and rural businesses, plus tougher real-earnings tests for...
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Higher for Longer: What the Fed's Hike Means for Main Street
The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time in three years — and signaled higher for longer. Chip and Melody break down what it costs Main Street, why small-business growth expectations just hit a four-year low, the SBA's doubled loan limit, the tax deadlines hiding in…
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About this show
Rabbit Hole Brief: Small Business is a daily briefing for owners and operators. Every weekday morning, two hosts run through what changed overnight — rates, regulations, taxes, hiring trends, and the money moves that affect Main Street — plus one practical tactic you can actually use, all before you unlock the front door. Built for people who run businesses, not people who tweet about them. A Rabbit Hole Brief production.
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