Risk of Ruin

Jordan and Ohio Mike are part of a group of advantage players that spread their plays across casinos (physical and online), sportsbooks (physical and online), and various manufactured spending related opportunities.Subscribe to the Substack and Support the show: https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/Email: risk of ruin pod at gmailFollow the show on Twitter: https://x.com/halfkelly

Preston Johnson and a group called WAGMI United had a novel idea to buy an English football club and then use NFT sales to fund player spending. Their goal was to take a club from League Two and gain eventual promotion to the Premier League.Follow Preston on Twitter: https://x.com/SportsCheetahSubscribe to the Premium Substack: https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/Preston on Bet the Process: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/end-of-year-with-sports-cheetah-preston-johnson/id1291010585?i=1000743258624Follow the show on Twitter: https://x.com/halfkellyEmail the show: risk of ruin pod at gmail.

A very specific housing related bet.How did we go from The Big Short... to a housing shortage in such a short time?Governments in seemingly disparate places are having to take drastic measures to enable more housing development.  This episode is about how those conditions materialized in the United States, and also whether anything can be done to ameliorate the situation.Kevin Erdmann is a Senior Affiliated Scholar at the Mercatus Center.Kevin’s SubstackFollow Kevin on TwitterBen Bear is the CEO of BuildCasa.BuildCasa websiteFollow Ben on TwitterCody is a homebuilder in Oregon.Show resources:It’s Time to Build - Marc AndreessenBut not in Atherton - Marc AndreessenInstitutional SFR landlord on ResiClub podcastSupport the show: Subscribe to the Premium SubstackEmail me: riskofruinpod at gmailFollow me on Twitter: @halfkelly

Kris Abdelmessih writes the Moontower newsletter which is required reading for any edge seeking generalist who wants to learn about the world of volatility.Kris got his start as a trader over 20 years ago with Susquehanna. He talks about getting the job, SIG’s training program, and the “degenerate atmosphere.” Kris also talks about his career where he moved from pit to pit, and then ultimately became a portfolio manager at a vol focused hedge fund.Kris also has options analytics software - Moontower AI - and you can follow him on Twitter - @KrisAbdelmessih.References from the episode:David Sklansky - Getting the Best of ItMichael Lewis - Liar’s PokerAdvantage Podcast Mixtape Vol IAdvantage Podcast Mixtape Vol IIFollow me on Twitter - @halfkelly.

Thomas started as a losing bettor, and then learned to win. Eventually he won so much that a regulated sportsbooks stole several million dollars from him.He talks about CLV, harvesting bonuses, faking the NBA overnight market, parlays, SGPs, round robins, and VIP rewards.Follow Thomas on Twitter: https://x.com/t_stephens97Subscribe to the Premium Substack: https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/p/trial-and-error?r=ckepv&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=falseFollow the show on Twitter: https://x.com/halfkelly

Jamie, Steve, and Kyle are advantage players. They talk about beating casino games including carnival games, automatic roulette wheels, and sweepstakes slot machines.Support the show: https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/References from the episode:Laurence Scott on Gambling With an Edge.Mark Billings on Gambling With an Edge (related to biased wheels), and also using computers.Mark Billings on Risk of Ruin.The Eudaemonic Pie.Bloomberg article on roulette.A Man for All Markets - which describes Ed Thorp’s effort to beat roulette.Kyle’s appearance on Gambling With an Edge.Email the show: risk of ruin pod at gmailFollow on Twitter: https://x.com/halfkelly

Domer is a prediction market trader, and is one of the biggest bettors on Polymarket. He talks about his journey from Intrade, to Predictit, to Polymarket. He also talks about the 2024 election, which was a rollercoaster. It featured highs - like backing Kamala Harris before President Joe Biden had even dropped out of the race - and also lows, like being short Trump on election night.Domer also talks about unraveling the mystery of the so-called French Whale.Domer on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/profile/0x9d84ce0306f8551e02efef1680475fc0f1dc1344Domer on Twitter: https://x.com/DomahhhhSupport the show by subscribing on Substack: https://riskofruinpod.substack.comFollow the show on Twitter: https://x.com/halfkelly

Marc Cohodes made a living exposing fraudulent companies, and profiting when their stock prices collapsed. But the life of a short seller is spent on a high wire because executives willing to engage in fraud don't play by the rules when their freedom is at stake. Marc tells the stories of the adversity he's faced holding public companies accountable. Marc recounts the war stories from his shorts of iomega, TCBY, Lernout & Hauspie, Novastar Financial, Jos. A Bank, Bally Manufacturing, Direct Focus, and more.Follow Marc on Twitter: @alderlaneeggsMarc's Mimedx Website: http://petiteparkerthebarker.com/Email the show: [email protected]: @halfkelly

Matt writes the blog "Miles Earn and Burn" which stands alone in the credit card space. He has no ads on the site, and he writes about advanced strategies that don't make it into the mainstream travel blog world. The post that got me interested in having Matt as a guest said basically: go to your local credit union and see if there's anything that you might be able to profit from. In the advantage play world that would be called scouting. In the manufactured spend world it's known as probing. https://milesearnandburn.com/index.php/2023/09/29/taking-a-stroll-to-the-local-financial-district/Email the show: risk of ruin pod at gmailFollow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly

Curtis, Phil, and Reilly are professional sports bettors that provide the valuable service of getting down for originating groups. They are logistics providers in the gambling world. They talk about starting as casino APs, finding sports, and having several hundred thousand dollars taken from them by a  sportsbook.Find Reilly on X. https://twitter.com/ValleyBlitz_15Support the show credit card links: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YTMUqap_Z0D9832cOl5wYxUs16Byr6xx-iAZzrRL3VU/edit?usp=sharingEmail us: risk of ruin pod at gmailFollow on X: https://twitter.com/halfkelly

The story of Long Term Capital Management as told by LTCM partner Eric Rosenfeld. Eric earned a PhD from MIT, then taught at Harvard Business School, then became a trader at Salomon, then was a founding partner of LTCM.Resources:HBS Study on LTCM dividendEric's talk at MIT in 2009Michael Lewis article on LTCMWhen Genius Failed, Roger LowensteinFollow the show on Twitter: @halfkellyEmail: [email protected]: halfkelly.com

John Hempton runs Bronte Capital, which generates its excess returns primarily through shorting fraudulent companies. John walks through a hypothetical short, explaining how they find it, how they size positions, and the kinds of returns that can be expected. He also discusses his shorts of Valeant Pharmaceutical and Wirecard.John Hempton on Twitter: https://twitter.com/John_HemptonJohn's Blog: http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/Netflix documentary on Valeant: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt7909184/Email the show: [email protected] the show on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly

Mark DeRosa, Zack White, and Rufus Peabody. The story a group of friends from Appalachian State that went on to team up with an econ grad from Yale. They started playing casino games and eventually would go on to bet the max at sports books all over Las Vegas.Follow Zack White on Twitter.Follow Mark DeRosa on Twitter.Follow Rufus Peabody on Twitter.Rufus's betting analytics startup: Unabated. 

Mark DeRosa, Zack White, and Rufus Peabody. The story a group of friends from Appalachian State that went on to team up with an econ grad from Yale. They started playing casino games and eventually would go on to bet the max at sports books all over Las Vegas.Follow Zack White on Twitter.Follow Mark DeRosa on Twitter.Follow Rufus Peabody on Twitter.Rufus's betting analytics startup: Unabated. 

Houyi went from Yale Law School to a job in finance before he left it all behind to become a professional advantage player. He talks about counting cards, learning to play hole cards, traveling the world, and a fateful poker game in Cambodia.Email the show: [email protected] us on Twitter: @halfkelly

Richard Munchkin and Darryl Purpose are career advantage players. Over the past 40 years they've teamed up to win millions of dollars from casinos. In this episode they recount some of the war stories and also offer reflections on the nature of teamwork.Darryl Purpose's music website: https://darrylpurpose.com/Richard Munchkin / Gambing With an Edge: https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gambling-with-an-edge/category/podcast/Earlier episode of Risk of Ruin featuring Richard and Darryl: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/david-goliath-part-i/id1527018692?i=1000493338179James Grosjean's "Beyond Coupons": https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gambling-with-an-edge/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/beyondcouponsbjfo.pdfEmail the show: risk of ruin pod at gmailFollow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly

Citrini Research has taken Fintwit by storm with a series of prescient market calls covering themes such as AI, GLP-1, and the Trump election.In this episode Citrini discusses how he arrived at thematic investing, the process he uses to find baskets of stocks, and also what it’s like to write up a thesis for tens of thousands of subscribers.Find Citrini on Substack.Find Citrini on Twitter.Support the show by subscribing to the Premium Substack: https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/p/new-episode-big-chunky-changes?r=ckepvEmail the show: risk of ruin pod at gmailFollow the show on Twitter: @halfkelly

Jake Hoselton is the CEO of Grass Clippings. Pete Wilson is the CMO of Grass Clippings. Howard Lindzon is the Managing Partner of Social Leverage.The guests talk about trying to build a new high stakes par 3 golf league.Links:2024 Grass Clippings Openhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cX0ktag2kA2024 Good Good Desert Openhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PE7t7K173-UFollow Grass Clippings on X (formerly Twitter):https://x.com/GrassClippingscFollow Howard Lindzon on X (formerly Twitter):https://x.com/howardlindzonFollow the show on X (formerly Twitter): https://x.com/halfkellySupport the show links:https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YTMUqap_Z0D9832cOl5wYxUs16Byr6xx-iAZzrRL3VU/edit

Mr. Doppy became an advantage player hustling the video poker game Ultimate X. Since then he's gone after online sports books, credit card points, and also a state lottery.Mr. Doppy's Twitter account: https://twitter.com/MrDoppySupport the show links: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YTMUqap_Z0D9832cOl5wYxUs16Byr6xx-iAZzrRL3VU/editEmail the show: Risk of ruin pod at gmail dot comFollow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly

David Orr is a former poker player turned fund manager. He started out investing with a value bias, and then eventually did a 180 and started shorting value traps. He talks about how his strategy evolved and also his plan to grow his fund.Follow David on Twitter: https://twitter.com/orrdavidSupport the show links: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YTMUqap_Z0D9832cOl5wYxUs16Byr6xx-iAZzrRL3VU/editFollow the show on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkellyEmail: risk of ruin pod at gmail

Jeff Ma was a member of the MIT Blackjack Team. He told his story to the writer Ben Mezrich, who wrote a book titled "Bringing Down the House." The book was later made into the movie "21" which starred Kevin Spacey, Kate Bosworth, and Jim Sturgess.In addition to blackjack, Jeff talks about his career in tech where he has focused on using data and analytics to create value.Note: an earlier upload contained a claim that the Patriots were caught filming opponent practices. That has been corrected in the episode. They were accused of that, but they dispute it, and there was no evidence found.Links: The Bet the Process Podcasthttps://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bet-the-process/id1291010585Follow Jeff on Twitter:https://twitter.com/jeffmaRisk of Ruin Substack:https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/Email the show: risk of ruin pod at gmailFollow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly 

Kyle Boddy is the founder of Driveline Baseball, which promises data driven performance training. He is best known for training pitchers in baseball. Prior to his career in sports Kyle was a professional gambler. On this episode he tells stories about exploiting online casino bonuses, as well as shuffle tracking, and playing poker.Driveline Baseball: https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/Follow Kyle on Twitter: https://twitter.com/drivelinekyleBlackjack Shuffle Tracker's Cookbook: https://www.amazon.com/Blackjack-Shuffle-Trackers-Cookbook-Arnold/dp/B001CH9S0IBeyond Coupons: https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gambling-with-an-edge/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/beyondcouponsbjfo.pdfThe Risk of Ruin Newsletter: https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=web&utm_campaign=substack_profileEmail the show: risk of ruin pod @ gmailFollow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly

Jason Strasser is the co-founder and Chief Investment Officer of Caption Partners. While in college Jason became a high stakes poker player and was making $100k/month before he left competitive poker for Wall Street. Today he generates his edge trading options, looking for one-off events where the volatility of the options are mispriced by algorithms.Follow Jason on Twitter: https://twitter.com/strassa2Email the show: risk of ruin pod at gmailFollow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly

Evan Tindell is a former poker player and now is the CIO of Bireme Capital. He talks about how he got into the market, and also his value investing based process for finding investments.Follow Evan on Twitter:https://twitter.com/evantindellBireme Capital Blog Post on Meta:https://www.biremecapital.com/blog/pounding-the-table-on-metaRisk of Ruin Podcast Newsletter:https://riskofruinpod.substack.com/Email the show risk of ruin pod at gmail.Follow the show on Twitter:https://twitter.com/halfkelly

In 2022 Elon Musk signed an agreement to purchase Twitter. Then all hell broke loose. This episode is about that merger, the investors that traded it, and the most valuable Twitter follow to come out of the saga.Guests:Chris DeMuth - Rangeley Capitalhttps://twitter.com/ChrisDeMuthJrEvan Tindell - Bireme Capitalhttps://twitter.com/evantindellChance, Editor in Chief of The Chancery Dailyhttps://twitter.com/chancery_dailyMedia Clips Used:Tesla 3rd Quarter Earnings Callhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_SOWBDCQnMDavid Faber, CNBChttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycx4b9-2nFUYahoo News, Biden Administration Reviewing Twitter Dealhttps://www.yahoo.com/video/u-weighs-security-review-musks-010913575.htmlCarolyn Berger Appearance on CNBChttps://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/07/13/twitter-is-in-a-very-strong-position-to-be-on-the-winning-side-says-ret-delaware-supreme-court-justice.htmlElon Musk Sold Zip2https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9mczdODqzoPeter Thiel Comments on Elonhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y11uX8X6iz4Tesla Shareholder Meetinghttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49e7LrxS3FQ&feature=emb_titleSEC Sues Musk Over Funding Secured Tweetshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjqp7LTb2B4&t=56s

Erik Seidel and Steve Zolotow were among the gamblers to come out of the storied Mayfair Club in New York City. The Mayfair inspired some of the locations in Rounders, and is also known for the breadth of success that its players have had in poker. The episode covers the history of the club, its bridge and backgammon roots, and the careers of Erik and Steve.Special thanks to Larry Bernstein.Email the show: Risk of ruin pod at gmailTwitter: @halfkellyFollow Erik on Twitter: @Erik_Seidel

Jim and Dan Pasko talk about their father and son sportsbetting operation. The Paskos use math to find positive EV bets like correlated parlays and player props. Jim Pasko has been a professional gambler for almost his entire adult life, first starting as a backgammon player during the heyday of that game. Dan joined him in professional gambling when they found opportunities with the early internet sportsbooks.Follow Dan on Twitter: @dan_paskoFollow the show on Twitter: @halfkellyEmail the show: risk of ruin pod at gmail.

To this point we've published 33 podcast episodes covering everything from slot machines to hedge funds. This episode is Part II of an attempt to make sense of the guests, and make sense of the domain they operate in.To find the show on all of the platforms check out the Linktree.https://linktr.ee/johnreeder

To this point we've published 33 podcast episodes covering everything from slot machines to hedge funds. This episode is Part I of an attempt to make sense of the guests, and make sense of the domain they operate in.To find the show on all of the platforms check out the Linktree.https://linktr.ee/johnreeder

Marc Cohodes was the subject of the prior episode titled "Life's Too Short." Marc returns to the podcast to talk about figuring out the FTX scheme, using that to short Silvergate, and Signature Banks, and also the banking turmoil that has followed.Follow Marc on Twitter:https://twitter.com/AlderLaneEggsLife's Too Shorthttps://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/lifes-too-short/id1527018692?i=1000498472731Odd Lots episode with Sam Bankman-Friedhttps://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/sam-bankman-fried-and-matt-levine-on-how-the/id1056200096?i=1000531062191Alan Lane on the Pomp Podcasthttps://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/alan-lane-ceo-of-silvergate-why-bitcoiners-shouldnt/id1434060078?i=1000457223824Risk of Ruin Newsletterhttps://riskofruinpod.substack.com/Follow the show on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly

Blair Hull played on the original Big Player blackjack team in the 1970s. He played with Al Francesco, Ken Uston, and ran into other pioneers of the game including Keith Taft. The Francesco teams were the subject of the book "The Big Player".  After blackjack Blair moved into the financial markets where he used his proprietary options strategies to turn $25,000 into millions. Blair talks about his life searching for edges, and the lessons he learned.Links: Hull Tactical ETFEmail the show: [email protected] on Twitter: @halfkellyThe Big Player on Amazon

The lives of two sharp sports bettors, and one bookmaker. Our guests talk about getting started in gambling, going from losers to winners, and the technology they use to keep their edges.Guests: Spanky, Captain Jack Andrews, and Ray MarinoSpanky's Be Better Bettors: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/be-better-bettors/id1493902736Captain Jack's Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bH3gZ9jpBZYCaptain Jack's new venture: https://unabated.comRay Marino: https://www.bookmaker.eu/Frank B. talks about dice control on GWAE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=REZgF55WPngFollow the show on Twitter: @halfkellyEmail the show: [email protected]

The lives of two sharp sports bettors, and one bookmaker. The guests expand on the relationship between sharp bettors and bookmakers. Spanky talks about being the target of a government investigation.Guests: Spanky, Captain Jack Andrews, and Ray MarinoSpanky's podcast on closing line value: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/closing-line-breakdown/id1493902736?i=1000505042641Spanky's interview with Chris Bruno: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/christopher-bruno-interview/id1493902736?i=1000500772401Captain Jack's Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bH3gZ9jpBZYCaptain Jack's new venture: https://unabated.comRay Marino: https://www.bookmaker.eu/Follow the show on Twitter: @halfkellyEmail the show: [email protected]